Senate '08: Break's over, folks. We've got the closest race in the country right here.
Kari Chisholm
Listen up, folks. I know there are some of you who've been taking it easy on the campaign volunteering front. Summer in Oregon is glorious, and the presidential race isn't much of a race in Oregon.
But make no mistake. Right here in Oregon, we've got the hottest U.S. Senate race in the country. There's a reason why the airwaves have been full of ads - and it ain't because TV time suddenly got cheap.
Over at Pollster.com, they do a great job of compiling all the poll data into easy-to-read maps and charts. And here's what we know, as of right now: The race between Jeff Merkley and Gordon Smith is the closest in the country.
Yes, we had a tough primary. Yes, the ad wars are relentless. Yes, no one will ever confuse Jeff Merkley's earnest wonkiness with John F. Kennedy's smoothness or Paul Wellstone's bombast.
But you know what? None of that matters. If bringing our troops home matters to you, if universal health care matters to you, if building an economy that values work matters to you, if protecting the right to choose matters to you, then President Barack Obama needs a U.S. Senate that will work with him as a partner. And here in Oregon, we need to elect Jeff Merkley and send Gordon Smith back to Scotland for an extended golfing vacation.
In less than four weeks, every Oregon voter will have a ballot in hand. And in six weeks, this election is over.
Break's over, folks. Get to work. Donate to Merkley. Volunteer for Merkley. Write a letter for Merkley. Host a house party for Merkley.
We're all counting on you. (Yes. You. Staring at the screen.)
Here's the ranking from Pollster.com. GOP-held seats in red, Dem-held seats in blue. Closest race in the country at the top:
| State | Democrat | % | Republican | % | margin |
| OR | Merkley | 41.4 | Smith | 43.0 | -1.60 |
| NC | Hagan | 43.9 | Dole | 42.0 | +1.90 |
| AK | Begich | 48.3 | Stevens | 45.5 | +2.80 |
| MN | Franken | 41.0 | Coleman | 43.9 | -2.90 |
| CO | M. Udall | 42.2 | Schaeffer | 37.7 | +4.50 |
| MS-B | Musgrove | 42.4 | Wicker | 49.6 | -7.20 |
| NJ | Lautenberg | 47.6 | Zimmer | 39.1 | +8.50 |
| NH | Shaheen | 51.5 | Sununu | 42.1 | +9.40 |
| TX | Noriega | 38.1 | Cornyn | 51.8 | -13.70 |
| NM | T. Udall | 55.1 | Pearce | 41.4 | +13.70 |
| KY | Lunsford | 35.9 | McConnell | 51.0 | -15.10 |
| LA | Landrieu | 56.0 | Kennedy | 40.8 | +15.20 |
| ME | Allen | 40.3 | Collins | 55.8 | -15.50 |
| GA | Martin | 36.6 | Chambliss | 52.3 | -15.70 |
| SC | Conley | 36.3 | Graham | 52.1 | -15.80 |
| IA | Harkin | 56.8 | C. Reed | 38.4 | +18.40 |
| OK | Rice | 36.3 | Inhofe | 55.2 | -18.90 |
| ID | LaRocco | 31.8 | Risch | 52.5 | -20.70 |
| IL | Durbin | 57.6 | Sauerberg | 35.3 | +22.30 |
| NE | Kleeb | 35.4 | Johanns | 58.5 | -23.10 |
| MI | Levin | 56.2 | Hoogendyk | 32.8 | +23.40 |
| VA | Warner | 56.9 | Gilmore | 33.2 | +23.70 |
| MS-A | Fleming | 33.5 | Cochran | 58.5 | -25.00 |
| KS | Slattery | 32.3 | Roberts | 57.5 | -25.20 |
| MA | Kerry | 57.0 | Beatty | 29.3 | +27.70 |
| SD | Johnson | 61.3 | Dykstra | 32.4 | +28.90 |
| TN | Tuke | 29.2 | Alexander | 59.3 | -30.10 |
| AL | Figures | 31.0 | Sessions | 61.6 | -30.60 |
| MT | Baucus | 64.0 | Kelleher | 31.0 | +33.00 |
| RI | J. Reed | 72.0 | Tingle | 20.0 | +52.00 |
(No polls available in AR, WV, DE, or either race in WY.)
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connect with blueoregon
2:33 a.m.
Sep 23, '08
Full disclosure: My company built Jeff Merkley's website, but I speak only for myself.
Sep 23, '08
I'm gobsmacked that Jeff Merkley's doing as well as he is, especially after the "Georgia" commercial. I think it's a vote against Gordon Smith more than a vote for Jeff Merkley.
Too bad the DSCC participated in the primary. Otherwise we'd have Novick up there, with a chance for real change, instead of this guy.
Even now, I still can't get excited to elect Merkley. I can get excited to NOT elect Smith. It's not the same thing.
Sep 23, '08
It would be comforting to know that Dem. candidates are not going to have the rug pulled out from under them by a capitulation on a Wall St. bailout from the likes of Dodd and Schumer. One point of view is that this whole Paulson gambit is a way to get the Dems to bail out their corporate pals and have the Rs suddenly go populist and pull out the election. I would like not to be a concern troll but the Dem. party has some people at the top who are easily cowed into submission by Mr. 19%.
7:59 a.m.
Sep 23, '08
Oh, Bridget, you're so cute. Say hi to Gordon when you see him at the staff meeting.
7:59 a.m.
Sep 23, '08
Well said Kari.
Sep 23, '08
It looks like fivethirtyeight is giving Merkley a 38% chance of winning. That's up from 22%, but there's still a long way to go!
Sep 23, '08
Is every person who has trouble getting excited about Merkley's off-the shelf campaign a Smith staffer?
He must have staff meetings at PGE Park.
oh snap!
8:19 a.m.
Sep 23, '08
Yup... I believe 538's numbers are based on the statistical calculations around margin of error, standard deviations from mean result, etc.
Good stuff - but it doesn't measure the effect of YOU (YES, YOU!) getting out there and knocking on your neighbor's doors, etc.
9:39 a.m.
Sep 23, '08
I totally agree -- for all of those Oregonians (myself TOTALLY included) who are obsessed with the national race, we need to put all of our emotion, energy and fire into the Merkley race. Obama will win Oregon, but he NEEDS a Democratic Senate. If you love Obama, give him what he really needs by working for Merkley.
I volunteered yesterday, I'm volunteering today...probably tomorrow too.
10:50 a.m.
Sep 23, '08
What could be not exciting about electing a man who led this most productive, progressive, & positive session of the Oregon legislature in the last 3 decades?
While Gordon Smith has to go, this should be about more than that. Jeff Merkley is someone with a rich background in both domestic & foreign affairs, a principled backbone, & a concern for those less fortunate who is willing to put everything on the line for the sake of national progress.
What more could anyone want from a US Senator? Once elected, I have no doubt he will go down in history as one of the best & most hard-working Senators in the country.
Oregon voters should be thrilled at the chance to support such a strong and substantive candidate.
10:51 a.m.
Sep 23, '08
I agree with Kari. 100% All Aboard! Time to get on the Merkley bus/train/plane. That said, can someone at the campaign get some better pictures of him for the website? just sayin... I mean the guy's actually good-looking, why the weird pictures?
10:53 a.m.
Sep 23, '08
What could be not exciting about electing a man who led this most productive, progressive, & positive session of the Oregon legislature in the last 3 decades?
While Gordon Smith has to go, this should be about more than that. Jeff Merkley is someone with a rich background in both domestic & foreign affairs, a principled backbone, & a concern for those less fortunate who is willing to put everything on the line for the sake of national progress.
What more could anyone want from a US Senator? Once elected, I have no doubt he will go down in history as one of the best & most hard-working Senators in the country.
Oregon voters should be thrilled at the chance to support such a strong and substantive candidate.
Sep 23, '08
"Jeff Merkley is someone with a rich background in both domestic & foreign affairs"
Except in Georgia.
My vote is still blank. I am not excited over Jeff, and I will never vote for Smith.
12:42 p.m.
Sep 23, '08
Pat -- It was Bridget's contention that the Georgia ad has somehow laid on a smackdown. The independent and Republican voters I've talked to recently are annoyed by it -- "anybody would look stupid if you showed them eating in slow motion".
Amusingly enough, the hot-dog part of that ad appears to have obscured the substantive criticism that they're trying to make in the spot.
1:47 p.m.
Sep 23, '08
"The independent and Republican voters I've talked to recently are annoyed by it -- "anybody would look stupid if you showed them eating in slow motion"."
He looked stupid eating at regular speed as well. There's a reason politicians often don't get much to eat out on the hustings...too many people to talk to, and they understand it's GENERALLY CONSIDERED IMPOLITE to eat while you talk to someone, and talk literally while you are putting food in your mouth.
What impact the ad has politically, I don't know. My guess is minimal (for one thing, Georgia is way old news in the cycle). Still was a mistake by Merkley.
2:34 p.m.
Sep 23, '08
It may have been a mistake by Merkley, we'll see. But it definitely doesn't seem to have lifted Smith, if recent polling data is to be believed.
Anecdotally, it appears to look like a hungry guy eating a hot dog. At least that's what I hear from folks across the political spectrum. Kari appears to at least be right on the surface--the ad looks like its about a guy woofing down a hotdog rather than the ad they tried to run: a guy who couldn't answer the question.
3:23 p.m.
Sep 23, '08
"It may have been a mistake by Merkley, we'll see. "
What information are we still waiting for? As a public figure who is "working" at the time, you don't stuff food in your mouth while you are being interviewed. That was the mistake I'm referring to. It was a failure of etiquette. Merkley wasn't a hungry guy at someone's party, he was the Democratic nominee at a campaign event.
And I believe it's "wolfing." Unless Arsenio was there, I guess...
3:42 p.m.
Sep 23, '08
TJ, what are you doing this week to help elect Jeff Merkley?
4:45 p.m.
Sep 23, '08
A week and a half ago, Democratic County Chairs in Oregon were treated to a conf. call w/ Gov Howard Dean, Chair of the DNC. Having already sensed that many volunteers were reaching plateaus, I had the chance to ask him how to best re-invigorate folks.
He told me, "Kick 'em in the butt!" He noted how we have precious little time left, and we can't afford to leave anything on the table.
Yes, some aspects of volunteering are a challenge, but those challenges - contacting voters by phone and face to face - are precisely the tools that will take us over the top. There is NOTHING more effective at persuading a voter than face to face contact. Additionally, door to door canvassing significantly impacts GOTV.
We can't leave this work to someone else. Either we all suck it up now and reach out of our comfort zone, or we'll be faced with the potential of another split US Senate and a Republican administration.
Hit the links that Kari has offered you above and let's get this thing DONE!
(And let your out-of-state friends know that that need to step it up, too!)
<h2>KC, Mult Dems Chair</h2>