Voter Fidelity 100 days out

Jeff Alworth

In April, I posted a poll asking Clinton and Obama voters if they would support the other candidate for president if their choice lost the nomination.  At the time, 77% of Hillary voters said they'd support Obama. The primary was a pretty heated affair, so I'm wondering if anything's changed. 

So here's the question: if you supported Hillary in the primaries, do you plan to vote for Obama?  This isn't going to be remotely scientific, but I prevail upon you to answer only if you supported Clinton

  • (Show?)

    Annoying and picky comment ahead....

    Today is 96 days out. :)

  • Mike Schryver (unverified)
    (Show?)

    It seems likely to me that right-wing trolls will answer this poll, and indicate that they're for McCain, so that it'll look like Obama has less support than he really has.

  • (Show?)

    Today is 96 days out. :)

    But I meant to post it four days ago ...

  • Ron Hager (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Here is my answer to this question. http://knotmyline.wordpress.com/2008/07/24/how-they-can-get-me-to-vote-for-them/

  • (Show?)

    If Obama chooses Tim Kaine, who has a faith-based opposition to abortion and is strongly opposed to the so-called partial birth abortion, I'm assuming the numbers would change. I can't imagine Hillary supporters, or any strong proponent of a woman's right to abortion, being too happy.

  • LT (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Does pro-choice mean that if there are 10 people in a room they are allowed to have 10 different opinions, even if that ranges from a NARAL activist to a foster or adoptive parent who opposes abortion for religious or other reasons?

    Would Hillary Clinton rather have been in the minority in the Senate rather than having Bob Casey (from a famously anti-abortion family) be elected as a Democratic US Senator?

    I believe everyone has the right to make up their own mind about abortion---which means no one should have the right to be in-your-face on the subject. Look up where Barry Goldwater and Hubert Humphrey stood on abortion. Which one of those gentlemen was a Democratic candidate for president? Is it better to be someone who strongly believes that children should be cared for (nutrition, health care, education, housing, etc.) even though that person has mixed feelings about abortion? Or to have someone who is in favor of abortion rights but never lifts a finger to help kids?
    Are we going to slam those who believe that abortion is wrong if they are full of good works for children? I have no use for the RTL types, but have great respect for those who take in or otherwise help foster kids, for instance.

    With all the problems facing this country, if abortion becomes a litmus test because all "good people" believe no one should have the right of conscience on an issue like this, then "pro-choice" really means nothing other than the right to be on the NARAL side of the argument. Too many voters are neither NARAL nor RTL, and winning candidates understand that.

  • (Show?)

    To offer due respect to Jeff, we're not going to get into an abortion debate -- I'm just saying that Clinton supporters, who we need, won't necessarily be pleased. All I'm saying...

  • (Show?)

    Kristin, thank you for that interesting addition to the discussion.

    OnTheIssues.org quotes his 2005 campaign website:

    I will reduce abortion in Virginia by enforcing current Virginia restrictions, passing an enforceable ban on partial-birth abortion, ensuring women's access to health care (including legal contraception), and promoting abstinence-focused education and adoption. We should reduce abortion in this manner, rather than by criminalizing women and doctors.

    NARAL Pro-Choice Virginia describes Kaine as "mixed-choice".

  • backbeat (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Kristin, I completely agree with you. This is the Democratic Party nominee for President and VP. There should be no question of their strong support for choice. Bayh and Kaine can take a flying leap.

  • Peter Bray (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Obama is a loser, a liar, a sellout, a follower, and a fraud. McCain offers a GOP candidate the likes of which we have not seen for a generation. The choice is pretty damn obvious for true progressives interested in moving the entire political apparatus of the country LEFTWARD!

  • (Show?)

    Huh. Peter, it may be obvious in your own head - but why don't you enlighten us?

  • Eric Parker (unverified)
    (Show?)

    "I can't imagine Hillary supporters, or any strong proponent of a woman's right to abortion, being too happy"

    No matter what anyone does or think in this world today, no matter what the issue, there will always be some uptight group or person who will gripe, whine, or complain about it, no matter what it is. It is the Modern American way. Nobody is ever truly happy and nobody ever gets away without being chided, scolded, or corrected for something, no matter how big or small.

    And, sadly, a lot of us are used to it to the point that we just do not care one way or the other.

  • (Show?)

    Eric,

    You're right -- there's no pleasing everybody. Just said that it might affect the poll, that's all. I'm not too happy with Kaine but of course will still vote for the ticket.

  • Peter Bray (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Huh. Peter, it may be obvious in your own head - but why don't you enlighten us?

    The reasons why many Democrats don't like Obama are already well-established. Perhaps the best example is Obama's lies on FISA.

    As for McCain, he is the most liberal GOP presidential candidate since Nixon. Nixon gave us the EPA, ESA, Clean water/air, etc etc. The GOP, currently, is a far-right religious organization chiefly because of Geo. Bush. A McCain presidency would shift that party leftward, towards a secular classical conservatism.

    On the other hand, Obama is a "compromiser" and centrist. Given the far-right nature of the opposition, his centrism would probably be to the right of McCain's presidential approach which would more be in the spirit of classic conservative Barry Goldwater.

  • genop (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Nice labels. "Classic conservative" and "secular classical conservatism". Where your argument falls apart for me is this conclusion: " ...his centrism would probably be to the right of McCain's presidential approach...". The labels explain nothing about issues on which you feel Obama's position would be "to the right" of McCains.

  • (Show?)

    Peter, you're voting for McCain because he's more liberal than Obama? That's madness. I won't argue with people to Obama's left--no single candidate will please the entire spectrum of voters. I am generally to the left of the candidate I end up voting for. Obama's politics are well-known, so if you find him too moderate, there's not much that can be said. But it's flatly wrong that McCain is more liberal. Find me an issue where McCain's position is to Obama's left. It's certainly not on these:

    Abortion Health Care Taxes Foreign policy Supreme Court Gay rights Social security Environment/global warming

    The only possible place you could say they're close is immigration, and that's if you ignore McCain's current position on the assumption he'll flop back to the position from which he's flipped. McCain has a long history of conservatism, and he's not going to randomly become a liberal if he becomes president.

  • Sam Geggy (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Voter button: seems stuck! Problem?

  • Anthony Stine (unverified)
    (Show?)

    I'm just curious as to how many Obama supporters voted in in this poll just to make Clinton supporters feel like they're the minority (I say this as a "since day one" Obama supporter).

  • Sam Geggy (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Anthony: this Board purports to robust conversation laced liberally with an ethos of collegiality. The primary plaints consist of the woefully inconsistent and unproveable prooftexts quoted for everything under the sun!

    Why, oh why would a Blue Oregonian purposely weigh in if they were not indeed the creature Jeffrey seeks to measure? What would be the good of that, or the fun?

  • (Show?)

    Peter, you're delusional about McCain. See Paul Gronke's post over at Carla's column about Gordon Smith and "cognitive dissonance."

    Even if you weren't simply wrong about him and his record, and even if his changes of position and kowtowing to the hardest of the Religious Right to get the nomination this year were simply lying opportunism that dwarfs any lies or flip-flops by Obama by an order of magnitude or more, what on earth makes you think that would actually change the Republican Party?

    There's absolutely no evidence of his having that kind of influence. Rs will be voting for him 1) out of sheer partisanship and 2) insofar as he has repudiated the rather limited ways in which he used to depart from post-Reagan Republican orthodoxy. If he turns around and goes back on that repudiation, they will turn on him, not follow him.

    However, Jeff, on the Obama and the Supreme Court, see my comments about Cass Sunstein over at Pat Ryan's column about "behavioral economics."

  • Kate (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Peter, When McCain ran in 2000, I loved him. And you are right-- he was the most liberal GOP presidential candidate we'd had in years.

    But he lost, because you can't win the GOP nomination as a moderate (or liberal). Since then, he has taken a hard right and is pandering to his base on most issues, which is fine; he had to to get the nomination.

    But since flip-flopping apparently only counts if it's within the same election cycle, I think we should all judge the candidates based on their positions for THIS election. In a side by side comparisson this season, Obama is hands down the more left-leaning of the two. He is even being billed by conservative pundits as the most liberal Senator in the Senate, "to the right of Sen. Ted Kennedy."

    Anyway, thanks for sharing your viewpoint, it's always nice to hear a different perspective around here!

  • Peter Bray (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Fact of the matter is that Dems haven't had a LEADER since LBJ. All of the putative heads of our party have been followers. And, just like the little pipsqueak in Of Mice and Men who has to prove his toughness, or just like today's kowtowing Senate/House Dems, we have had failing leader after failing leader, falling in line behind whatever rightwing media narrative is spun.

    Obama, not even president, has fallen for this time and again, from FISA, to faith-based initiatives, and now, probably, to his VP choice. He is a loser, just like the rest of them, from Clinton, to Carter, to Pelosi, to Reid.

    McCain, as Kate points out, has bucked his party in the past. And, no doubt, he will buck his party in the future.

    Obama, on the other hand, will break our hearts in a million little ways. He is an absolute fraud, a con artist, a coward, a follower, and, sadly, a typical Democrat.

  • (Show?)

    What trolls on this thread. Propping up McSame and bashing Obama. Please spare us the mock angst.

    I am a Hillary delgate to the DNC from Oregon and I will be voting for Obama once he is officially confirmed as the Democratic Party nominee. 'Nuff Said!

  • Sam Geggy (unverified)
    (Show?)

    "Moses": is it really necessary to devolve immediately to name-calling? And if you must, perhaps a brief descriptor as to what "troll" means in your lexicon. Would dearly like to avoid such bashing of my own good self. The implied well of rage in your post is resonant with the raging Obama supporter in the cube next to me. She's got some pretty ugly true believer energy and actually HATES Hillary Clinton. You speak Clinton's name and her eyes throw darts. Yah, old image, trite: but I've finally seen it for myself. Her eyes throw darts!

  • LT (unverified)
    (Show?)

    "Fact of the matter is that Dems haven't had a LEADER since LBJ." Nice try at revisionist history, Peter.

    The reason college students like me supported Eugene McCarthy and Bobby Kennedy in 1968 is that LBJ was leading in the wrong direction. Humphrey lost to Nixon for not separating from LBJ soon enough.

    There were some folks whose friends were disabled or killed in Vietnam who talked about Nixon being a crook but they hated LBJ.

    So, Obama's voting record is not 100% in your book. Who is politically perfect?

  • (Show?)

    Chris, at the risk of violating one of Kari's cardinal rules, I will respond to you from the other thread on which you muse about Sunstein, arguing that his potential appointment to the bench is reason enough to worry about Obama as a candidate. I guess I'll punt on this one--in an election, it's difficult to know what these kinds of moves mean. Did he mention Sunstein because they work together and he was in Obama's mind, or was this a serious suggestion? At other times, Obama has said he'd like a justice in the mode of Thurgood Marshall or William Brennan--on the far end of the spectrum (and names potent enough to possibly rouse ennervated McCain voters).

    Obama voted against Alito and Roberts, is himself a constitutional law expert, and McCain says he plans to nominate conservatives in the mode of Bush's choices. As a matter of judgment on this issue, I think there's plenty of evidence to trust Obama.

  • Ms Mel Harmon (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Peter, the question isn't whether or not McCain is a "leader" or not (how are you defining that anyway?). The question is WHERE will McCain lead us? Well, let's see....100 years in Iraq, attacking Iran, making Bush's tax cuts permanent, appointing conservatives to the Supreme Court who will trounce the liberties of our citizens. You're right! McCain will lead....straight into HELL!

    NO. THANK. YOU. I think I'll stay with Obama, but thanks for reminding me why!

  • Peter Bray (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Piece of shit alert:

    Obama caves on offshore drilling.

    When will progressives wake up and see that this fraud is, well, a fraud!

  • (Show?)

    Peter, I think you have gone around some kind of psychological corner. Obama's now a "piece of shit?" That's beneath you, brother.

    I think this demonstrates exactly what kind of politician Obama will be. His comment was that, if he got everything he wanted in an energy deal, he'd concede to offshore drilling. That's politics--you compromise. In this case, Obama recognizes that since there are already 30 million acres of leased land the oil companies aren't drilling, granting a few million more may not matter a whit. In exchange, he gets serious reform that puts the US on track to address oil use in a major way. For you this makes him despicable; for me it makes him indispensible.

  • Sam Geggy (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Language is interesting. I am distressed everytime any of you stoop to namecalling. An elder of mine once pointed out that my use of namecalling and profanity was a sign that my creative access to my marvelous vocabulary was plumb give out. A disappointment to a man waiting to hear what I really thought about things.

    Peter, though I may be aligned with your source, the language is noisy from that "side" as it is from the "other". Nobody is free from bias. I watch DrudgeReport for comic value and the comically sad fact that local news broadcasts often follow DR day by day. So Peter's source says: "Obama Caves on Offshore...", and the famously conservative reactionary DR bills it as, "Obama shifts position on offshore oil drilling..."

    I look to this board to get away from shrill reactionism. And I would hope you do ask yourself this question every morning when you get up: "What is my bias?"

    Another old fellow man I worked with once said this to me about an abusive individual: "If it's a snake lying there, don't expect nothin' except it's a snake!". He meant that I should take responsibility for understanding a snake's character, nature, response set, and re/act neutrally and accordingly. When I saw the leads on Obama/drilling, I too immediately thought, "Here comes reality at last." as though he'd betrayed me and now the cover was blown. But the other side of me is a grownup or at least a realist, and that me says, "He is a politician. That is how it works. Let's just see what comes next."

    I am as idealistically unforgiving as the next guy. And I understand that these wonderful bastards are embedded in a context. Let's just see what that guy does next.

    Meanwhile: does this mean you plan now to vote for McCain? He's a piece of shit too, ain't he? What's our choices now, in a monolithic "two" party system?

  • Harry Kershner (unverified)
    (Show?)

    Jeff Alworth:

    Chris L was not "arguing that [Sunstein's] potential appointment to the bench is reason enough to worry about Obama as a candidate." Chris has taken what I consider to be a far more thoughtful position, i.e., that Obama's regressiveness on several other issues suggests that court appointments are the primary reason to prefer him to, e.g., Nader. When Obama shows himself to be likely to choose someone like Sunstein, he risks the loss of real DP progressives like Chris.

    Here's an actual quote from the link to Obama's capitulation posted above by Peter Bray:

    "If it is part of an overarching package, then I am not going to be rigid in preventing an energy package that goes forward that is really thoughtful and is going to really solve the problem."

    Obama was not saying that his condition for allowing the drilling was "if he got everything he wanted in an energy deal", as you claim. His condition is that it be part of "an overarching package". Just as his "end the war" rhetoric is laced with loopholes, his offshore drilling rhetoric now appears to support Peter's claims.

    Sam Geggy: While even I would refrain from some of what Peter says, I understand his rage and his desire to communicate that rage. I prefer emotion to be part of the package as long as it incorporates reason. (By the way, I disagree with Peter's argument about supporting McCain; he, as you said, is "a piece of shit too." But it is an argument, not merely a tirade.)

    Ms Mel Harmon said that McCain will lead us to "...100 years in Iraq, attacking Iran, making Bush's tax cuts permanent, appointing conservatives to the Supreme Court who will trounce the liberties of our citizens."

    The problem is that Obama's policy statements on all these issues suggests triangulation rather than opposition to McCain's horrendous positions.

  • joel dan walls (unverified)
    (Show?)
    <h2>Mr Bray, please redirect your considerable polemical talents to your lobbying work for the Fair Play for Chinese Occupation of Tibet Committee.</h2>

connect with blueoregon