Is the NRSC writing off Gordon Smith?
Kari Chisholm
The National Republican Senatorial Committee is the campaign organization tasked with re-electing Republican Senators. Unfortunately, this year, it looks pretty rough.
On Monday, the head of the NRSC - Senator John Ensign (R-NV) - said that he was hoping to hold their 2008 losses to just eight seats. Campaigning in Georgia, he told the Augusta Chronicle:
Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., set a floor on the number of Senate seats the party must control: 41. "The number that we get to is really, really important in the U.S. Senate," he said. "That's one of the reasons Saxby [Chambliss] absolutely must hold his seat."
On Thursday, he adjusted his number (probably after taking some heat from his colleagues.) Now, Ensign is hoping to only lose three seats, four at most. From TPM:
"I think it would be a great night, especially, [to lose] three seats -- that would be a terrific night for us, absolutely," NRSC chairman John Ensign told a lunch hosted by the Christian Science Monitor. "I don't want to slip below the four-seat loss -- that's kind of where we set our absolute worst goal, is to be down to 45 seats."
As one commenter wrote at TPM: "So, which 3 seats is he writing off? He should let those Senators know, so they can start packing their stuff up now."
And it looks like one of them might be Gordon Smith. Cue Ensign, via ABC News:
He said that while Sen. Barack Obama’s impact on down-ballot races is “unknowable at this point,” he expects Obama to boost the prospects of Democratic candidates in some states -- naming Oregon as an example.“Without Barack Obama, [Sen.] Gordon Smith probably wins [reelection] going away,” Ensign said.
Ouch.
Update: A new poll is out this morning. For the fourth straight month, Rasmussen has Gordon Smith under 50%, though this latest poll is slightly better for Smith than the last one - conducted in the midst of the primary season (and before Smith's post-primary run of television advertising.)
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10:58 a.m.
Jun 13, '08
Full disclosure: My company built Jeff Merkley's campaign website, but I speak only for myself.
10:58 a.m.
Jun 13, '08
I find that a little hard to believe; he's got to believe that VA is history and NH and NM don't look promising either. That's three right there. Then you have Colorado getting away from them. No matter how vulnerable he is, he's still running ahead in polling and that suggests a battle worth fighting--especially in a cheap media state like OR.
Most pundits put OR around 6-8 in rankings for Dem takeover; I can't see Ensign really thinking this seat is lost. In danger, yes.
Jun 13, '08
"That's one of the reasons Saxby [Chambliss] absolutely must hold his seat."
Don't know who is running against Saxby, but if each person who can afford to and is still angry about what the GOP did to Cleland (apparently Hagel was furious that they were attacking a fellow Vietnam vet), were to contribute to that Democrat, Saxby might be history after November!
11:14 a.m.
Jun 13, '08
I kind of doubt they're writing off Oregon just yet, Ensign specifically mentioned VA and NM as write-offs: "You don’t waste money on races that don’t need it or you can’t win." So we'll see what the other one is. Of course, I also doubt the NRSC is really going to be spending much money here anyways when they're poor and Gordon has a massive warchest.
11:29 a.m.
Jun 13, '08
smart point, nick. Gordo's likely to win the money game 2-1 or better; they shouldn't need more money.
Jun 13, '08
http://www.ridenbaugh.com/index.php/2008/06/13/or-sen-rising-in-the-fix/
Very interesting.
Jun 13, '08
Something that bothered me about Merkley's primary campaign was that he let Novick have the media to himself, staying silent ad-wise until just a month before the election. It allowed Novick to increase his name rec and buzz, leading to Novick moving up in polls, leading to even more buzz, followed by endorsements from newspapers impressed at how Novick was beating the speaker of the house. Merkley won anyway, of course, but he gave his opponent a lot of advantages he didn't need to give him. And with Merkley's silence during Smith's post-primary ad campaign, and Smith widening his lead, I'm seeing the same thing happen again. I know Merkley doesn't have as much money as Smith, but if he can't keep his poll numbers up, he'll have even less.
Jun 13, '08
The silence is at this point a bit disturbing, at the same time Merkley's pattern is to get the pieces in place and then go on the offensive. Merkley is going to be patient and make his move when he is ready. I think this is a sign that in terms of the grueling fall that is to come, this is the silence before the storm.
12:20 p.m.
Jun 13, '08
smith widening his lead? In which poll? Haven't seen anything since the DSCC one...
Jun 13, '08
Here's another article about personnel changes in Smith's camp
Jun 13, '08
I doubt they are too worried about Smith, this new poll actually does not look good at all for Merkley.
Rasmussen Election 2008: Oregon Senate Oregon Senate: Incumbent Smith Still Below 50% Support Friday, June 13, 2008
For the fourth straight month, Oregon Senator Gordon Smith is supported by less than 50% of voters in his bid for re-election. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Smith leading Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley 47% to 38%.
12:49 p.m.
Jun 13, '08
I know Merkley doesn't have as much money as Smith
We always knew this was the problem with the contested primary. For all its upsides, the downside is that the winning candidate was going to be broke coming out of it.
If you think Merkley should be on the air right now, make a donation. Otherwise, it's like wishing for a pony.
In any case, Merkley's not "silent". Today, he's starting a tour of 100 towns in Oregon - kicking it off with his hometown, Myrtle Creek.
It's exactly this sort of tour that generates lots of small-town press -- not to mention, grassroots awareness from folks.
It's a nice distinction with Gordon Smith, who spends all his time fundraising in Aspen, Vegas, Houston, and the Virgin Islands.
1:04 p.m.
Jun 13, '08
"For the fourth straight month, Oregon Senator Gordon Smith is supported by less than 50% of voters in his bid for re-election. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Smith leading Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley 47% to 38%."
Crap, that's not good at all. You're supposed to get a BOUNCE when you win nomination. Smith's number is steady (and still a big danger flag), but assuming a 4% MoE Merkley's downward tick is actual movement and not noise.
That said, the problem that Merkley has to fix before trying to bring voters to him is to bring down that 23% of DEMOCRATS supporting Smith. The good news is 15% undecided or other. There's room for him to move there. But job one has to be educating OR Dems about Smith, IMO.
Jun 13, '08
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0BehOBY-AE
Saxby really lays it out here...
Jun 13, '08
I have to disagree with Kari here, I think this means that the NRSC is writing off the most obvious losses for them (VA, NM, NH and CO) and will likely commit resources to the rest of the at-risk states as a firewall, i.e. OR. However, with Smith's warchest, it seems unlikely that they'll need to add anything.
And I don't think that new poll is anything but bad news for Smith as he remains under 50%. Merkley has plenty of room to grow, and remember, he'll have a much larger and more favorable electorate to introduce himself to thanks to Obama's coattails, as Ensign himself says.
Jun 13, '08
Smith hasn't even really campaigned yet. Aside from the ad he put on right before the primary, he's been rather silent. I know he did a couple of Memorial Day events in the Medford area, but I would expect a lot more campaigning out of Smith between now and November. That is, of course, if he's interested in keeping his job, because if Merkley campaigns and Smith doesn't, Smith will be toast.
Jun 13, '08
Smith's had at least two ads that I've seen, and I don't watch much TV.
9:35 p.m.
Jun 13, '08
I see Smith's ads regularly on the network news broadcasts. However, thanks to Tivo, we just zip through them instead of actually watching them.
10:30 p.m.
Jun 13, '08
I guess I should start using the DVR on the news, because the ubiquity of those suckers is nauseating.
10:55 a.m.
Jun 14, '08
We always knew this was the problem with the contested primary. For all its upsides, the downside is that the winning candidate was going to be broke coming out of it.
At the risk of re-igniting an old fire, I'd just like to say that if the DSCC had saved it's money for the General Election, whoever the nominee was (Merkley or Novick) would have had $400,000 accessible to spend against Smith.
Jun 14, '08
When it comes to campaign finance Merkley needs all the support we can muster. If Gordo senses a dip in campaign income he merely summons his off-shore banking buddies. Is there any question why he fervently supported that sleazy industry?? Why isn't Merkley's campaign trumpeting the off-shore issue????
6:51 p.m.
Jun 14, '08
Tell us more, genop. I'm ignorant of the matter.
2:56 p.m.
Jun 16, '08