Whoa, I hadn't heard this: apparently Pearl Jam is setting aside special tickets to benefit Steve Novick.

unless there are folks who live on the east coast who want to support steve. not unheard of.

myself, i'm holding out for REM to come out & do a benefit concert here in oregon this summer. HEE!

ps: good thing blueoregon isn't moveon.org, or else it would have to endorse novick! i love the smell of irony in the morning.

I actually find these results a little worrying. I love reading BlueOregon and would like to think that we well-represent the Democrats in our state, but the Obama - Clinton results are really out-of-whack, aren't they?

Unless something totally unexpected happens, everyone I know (who isn't working for Clinton) assumes that Obama will win pretty big in Oregon, but 75 - 19% makes us seem a little out of touch, doesn't it?

On a brighter note - Go Steve!

Obama win big? A month ago yes. Election day (days) Obama wins by less than 10 pts. Not an overwhelming crush. The BlueOregon results are astounding in many ways. These results should not in any way be construed as mirroring what will actually happen. Interesting? Yes. Reflective of real results; Not a chance.

I'm pretty shocked at how close the Senate primary is. I think thats probably going to be the most interesting race to watch on 5/20, especially county by county.

This straw poll spells trouble for Novick. Novick, look at the Survey USA poll, gets the vast majority of his support from very liberal white voters which matchs the readership of Blueoregon to a t. The fact that Jeff Merkley was able to do so well among Novicks best crowd is really good for him.

Also interesting to note after all the posts and comments from people like Torridjoe, Kari, Kevin, and Charlie Burr there are still 47 Blueoregon readers who are undecided in the US senate race.

"there are still 47 Blueoregon readers who are undecided in the US senate race. "

Esp. since there have been comments here of the "HOW DARE anyone claim to be undecided when everyone is supposed to have chosen up sides or be suspected of being a closet supporter because no intelligent Democrat could possibly be undecided" comments here.

"end snark"

kevin, out-of-state isn't necessarily bad, if the donor is an individual. out-of-state is bad if it is some PAC or a national level function of the democratic party (DSCC i'm looking at you).

if jeff merkley has some friends back in washington DC, from his days of working there, who want to give him $100 for his campaign, i think that's great.

what i don't think is great is the DSCC giving him $100,000.

are you okay with that distinction, or is it too subtle for you?

54.6% 244 Cyreena Boston 20.8% 93 Michael Dembrow

Reason why the Blue Oregon straw poll is just a snap shot of Blue Oregon bloggers.

For people of Blue Oregon By people of Blue Oregon

I am not at all surprised that Obama won big. Obama does very well with the activists of the party and those really paying attention. That is in large part why he had done exceedingly well in the caucuses. Blue Oregon doesn't represent an accurate cross-section of Oregon's Democratic Party because we are the cream of the crop (not to toot our own horn). I also agree with every single result of this poll (for the big races anyways), except I do lean Vicki Walker.

I expected Kroger/Macpherson to be close, but probably with the numbers inverted. Could this be an early warning sign in that campaign?

I would think neither camp is taking this that seriously...again, I would think...I may be wrong...

I feel better about my candidate (Merkley) getting money from the Dem party now, in the era of Howard Dean and a 50-state strategy, than I would have felt when Terry McAuliffe was in charge.

I want to beat Smith!!

I guess we must all be mere elitists.

"There's definitely a strong Portland-area bias, however, as 70% of our votes were from Multnomah, Clackamas, or Washington Counties. "

Kate Brown doing well with the home town crowd. Why is that not surprising?

They [the DSCC] simply don't see him as having a credible chance against Smith. I honestly don't either.

Kevin, I'm genuinely curious how you reconcile the following: If Merkley is such a strong candidate against Smith, why is he struggling to beat Novick? And if Novick is such a weak candidate against Smith, why is he giving Merkley such a run for the DSCC's money?

I think TJ's analysis is mostly right on. Whether fair or not, the game of political expectations is bound to hurt Merkley if he only pulls out a narrow win, whereas Novick will look like a giant-slayer if he pulls out a narrow win. But TJ is wrong to assume the DSCC will step up with cash to support Novick. Since they didn't get their first tier candidate and their second tier candidate is running a weak campaign, they are most likely writing off the race altogether. When looking at national priorities, it's not an unreasonable decision for them to make.

After Novick wins the primary, he's going to have to spend months slowly chipping away at Smith's natural lead. After the convention in August, if he's within striking distance, the DSCC will come around. But it's going to be on Novick to do the heavy lifting. Fortunately, I think he's up to it.

Pretty bold for Blue Oregon to have a straw pool. If the results do not matach what the actual results are two weeks from now. It pretty much proves to light blue and dark blue Oregonians that Blue Oregon is not relevant.

Good test of market capture Kari.

I voted as often as I had time - and all my votes were correctly cast.

Ya, Jeff, you might want to reassess the wealth demographics of BO readers.

Pretty bold for Blue Oregon to have a straw pool. If the results do not matach what the actual results are two weeks from now. It pretty much proves to light blue and dark blue Oregonians that Blue Oregon is not relevant.

So the only way to be relevant is to reflect the masses. I don't follow such tortured logic.

As I indicated in my prior post, I am proud of the fact that I take part in an online community that does not reflect the average joe, but instead reflects the interests and preferences of an engaged, thoughtful, and dynamic group.

Thanks for the straw poll Kari!

the DSCC ... are veterans of hardball political campaigns who know what it takes to win.

oh kevin, bless your heart.

::wipes tear of laughter out of corner of eye::

yes, yes indeed. that's why the democrats now enjoy a filibuster-proof majority in the senate. yes indeed.

oh.

wait.

The 5.7% undecided figure in the Presidential race is particularly interesting, given that this straw poll represents a self-selected group of, presumably, very engaged voters.

I suspect the percentage of undecideds is even higher among Blue Oregon readers in general, and higher yet among Democratic primary voters at large.

All of which is to say, those of us who are supporting a candidate would do well to make our cases to our fellow Oregonians who remain undecided -- at the doorstep, on the phone, and, yes, here in this small corner of the online marketplace of ideas.

To that end, let me shamelessly promote my guest column from last Friday, which was addressed to those "those still deciding whom to support in Oregon's upcoming Democratic Primary":

Deciding on a President: The standard set by FDR's first inaugural address:

.... What we need is someone who can speak honestly about our nation's profound challenges, inspire the collective will of the nation to tackle those challenges, and develop a working majority that will support the monumental changes necessary to right our national ship. In short, what we need is someone who could convincingly deliver - and effectively deliver upon - the core messages and commitments found in FDR's first inaugural address, which is remarkably relevant to our current challenges....

After quoting FDR's inaugural at length -- including his declaration that this "is preeminently the time to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly"; his identification of common challenges, including "preventing realistically the tragedy of the growing loss through foreclosure of our small homes and our farms," restoring "a strict supervision of all banking and credits and investments," and putting people to work; his dedication of the Nation "to the policy of the good neighbor" in world affairs; his acknowledgment of our "our interdependence on each other" such that "we must move as a trained and loyal army willing to sacrifice for the good of a common discipline"; and his reassurance that we "face the arduous days that lie before us in the warm courage of the national unity" -- I make my pitch:

Restoring the warm courage of national unity, honestly facing the challenges before us, and leading an army of people ready to make sacrifices for the common good. That is the standard. Can we find a President who meets it? Yes. We. Can.

What's your closing argument for your candidate?

Blue Oregon editors -- how about an open thread for closing arguments to undecided voters?

okay, kevin.

The DSCC only supports establishment hacks like the Merkley. Since Novick isn't one, he can't get their support.

Your red herring failed to respond to the charge of the Merkley being an establishment hack, Kevin. I don't suppose you have a thought out rebuttal?

Congratulations to Novick. Blue Oregon's management has supported Merkley all year, and yet Novick still gets more votes. I wasn't expecting it on this website. Pretty impressive for the little guy.

i just stopped by my house to run an errand and guess what i found hanging on the doorknob - a steve novick flyer!

HA!!!

i was like, um, didn't the LAWN SIGN give it away? already a supporter! but maybe the flyer was just the fellow canvasser saying hello.

i love that my house got canvassed for novick. it just tickles me.

signed, still waiting for a merkley knock on the door...

DeFazio Joins Critics of Gas Tax Holiday

Speaking of undecideds, one of Oregon's most prominent undecided superdelegates is Rep. DeFazio, who signed on to a pretty tough letter today in opposition to Sen. Clinton's proposed gas tax holiday:

Sens. John McCain (R-AZ) and Hillary Clinton (D-NY) have proposed suspending the $0.18/gallon federal gas tax for the summer. We are strongly opposed to this short-term and counterproductive response, for several reasons. First, their proposal will bankrupt the federal Highway Trust Fund, leading to deep cuts to transit investments and to critical safety and congestion-relief funding. While our constituents would like to pay less at the pump, they don't want to see the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs, worsened rush hour traffic, and increasingly dangerous road conditions. Secondly, the fiscal damage to the Highway Trust Fund would not actually lead to a savings for families. Oil companies have no history of passing their own savings on to the consumer and we don't believe they would do so now.... Waiving the federal gas tax will merely add to the already enormous profits of the oil industry while undermining our ability to invest in safer roads, cleaner fuels, and increased public transportation options.

Reps. Wu and Blumenauer are also on the letter, but they have already endorsed Sen. Obama.

The bigger news is the decision of Rep. DeFazio, along with two other undecided Western superdelgates (Reps. Mark Udall (CO) and Pete Stark (CA)), to take such a strong position on the most high-profile domestic policy difference between Sens Obama and Clinton.

74% for Obama and 66% for Schrader - so clearly some of the Obama supporters are also voting for Schrader whose in the bed of agribusiness, who opposes farmworker minimum wage, who actually wants to exempt several classes of people from the minimum wage, who only in our fevered imaginations ia a solid Democrat.

Why is this?

74% for Obama and 66% for Schrader - so clearly some of the Obama supporters are also voting for Schrader whose in the bed of agribusiness, who opposes farmworker minimum wage, who actually wants to exempt several classes of people from the minimum wage, who only in our fevered imaginations ia a solid Democrat.

Why is this?

Jenna: I just learned that Schrader is also in favor of caps on lawsuit damages, which is piss poor public policy. I voted for him on name recognition alone. Now I know Steve Marks is the better candidate.

I think the poll is off in that Sho Dozono will force "Tax 'em Sam" Adams into a runoff. I'm voting for Sho; don't trust "Tax 'em Sam" - he can't be trusted with the people's money.

stephanie, that's a good point. i hadn't thought of that...

somehow i doubt it, though.

the majority of people who answer the door when i canvass haven't heard or thought anything about the senate primary yet. those who have, tell me they are voting for steve novick. (if they're supporting merkley, they don't cop to it, with one exception. they may just be being polite, but i don't know. my sense is that merkley's outreach efforts haven't made it this far down the valley...

BCM, a longtime activist in my county has gotten a letter to the editor published endorsing the legislators in US Senate, AG, and maybe one other race. In each case, the endorsement is as a result of what the candidate/legislators have accomplished through legislative action.

If you think that is bad, by all means vote for Novick and Kroger. But "Merkley outreach efforts" by the campaign are not needed to those who have watched the legislature over the years and admire the work of certain legislators.

Elections should be about individual voters casting ballots based on what each indiv. voter admires about a candidate (or doesn't like about a candidate). I believe individuals are quite capable of thinking for themselves, and the idea that groups "think" is ridiculous.

I'm a little late to the conversation, but want to chime in on Jeff A's comments, though not about senate or pres races:

"I expected Kroger/Macpherson to be close, but probably with the numbers inverted. Could this be an early warning sign in that campaign?"

My original thoughts on this race were that mac would take it easily based on his name recognition, connections/endorsements, and having much more money than Kroger. As it turns out, mac seems to have run a campaign almost exclusive of volunteers/grass roots--there are no mac lawn signs anywhere and I understand that almost all if not all of his campaign staff are paid. He is running partially on attack advertising that one neighbor of mine termed "sleazy". Oregonain LTEs are largely for Kroger, one being very angry with mac for claiming that "I passed measure 49..." when it was 4,000 donors and 10,000 volunteers and the Oregon voters who passed measure 49. Kroger has run a very tight grass-roots campaign with clean, consistent and strong messaging. So I'm not surprised with this straw poll putting Kroger up--I think he'll pull it out.

"But D42 is the biggest surprise, though--I expected a more even distribution. Jules is definitely performing well among BlueO readers."

this one isn't a big suprise to me. Jules's messaging has greater depth and shows he has greater knowledge and understanding of the larger issues: the economy and the environment in particular than his opponents. Regan is the staffer with a feminist background campaigning on a record of helping to shepard legislation through Salem--a litte far-fetched for me to believe that a staffer can take as much credit as she does for legislative accomplishments. Teddy is the environmentalist who likes to hike and run, but his experience is too focused and his stated goals for societal improvement are meager and low. Jules appears to me to be the candidate better prepared to take on the larger issues we face in Oregon and that shows in his messaging. I'm not surprised he's leading, I actually expected him to be leading by a wider margin since he is running a very solid campaign, has been knocking on doors since November, has many of the important endorsements, etc.

Very interesting straw poll, caveats aside, thanks for doing it!

But "Merkley outreach efforts" by the campaign are not needed to those who have watched the legislature over the years and admire the work of certain legislators.

i would not disagree with that statement at all. i would say that people like that are a tiny minority of the voting electorate.

like i said, the vast majority of the people who answer their doors when i knock say that they know little or nothing about any of the candidates.

i would say the campaigns do need to do an outreach to those folks. merkley's campaign too, not just novick's.

why do i care? because this isn't a slam dunk for novick, not by any stretch, and because we're all going to be on the same team in two weeks.

i'd prefer to be playing on team novick on 21 may, not team merkley, but if it is the latter i want to feel like i'm getting on board with a strong campaign. i'm not seeing any physical evidence of that in my neck of the woods, not at this point.

Democratic Congress to Voters: What Election Problems?

"Despite a series of House and Senate hearings probing voter restrictions based on the myth of voter fraud and mostly GOP dirty tricks, it now seems virtually certain that not a single piece of major election reform legislation will pass Congress in time for the November, 2008 elections."

"The resulting Congressional inaction on touch-screen voting, according to researcher Warren Stewart of VerifiedVoting.org, will mean that at least 25% of the American public will be voting in 40,000 precincts on totally paperless machines in most of 14 states. These include such battleground states as New Jersey, Virginia and Pennsylvania."

Just addressing Eric's point...

"litte far-fetched for me to believe that a staffer can take as much credit as she does"

I'm guessing you don't know Regan Gray or worked in the Capitol with her. There are progressive laws on the books as a result of Regan's work. There is a reason a dozen or so sitting legislators have endorsed her, and many others currently in statewide races speak about her abilities and strengths. Regan's gotten so much accomplished for Oregonians as a staffer, imagine what's she'll do as a legislator.

yes, I am an outsider looking in on the d42 race, so I don't have insider knowledge of any of the candidates like you are suggesting, Heather, that would give me insight into Gray's (or any other of the candidates' for that matter) professionalism or accomplishments or how they've attained them.

Kudos to Gray for being as effective as you say she's been in Salem as a staffer. If she wins the office, I'll be excited to see her take the initiative to move our state forward on those issues we need to take serious strides on. As she's outlined on her website, her vision rests in the current framing of the issues: health care accessibility, creating a better balance of taxation from corporations, creating family-wage jobs, curb dependence on fossil fuels and fund education. There's nothing fresh or new in her approach or vision. I think we need some innovative and creative thinkers to make some real positive strides in changing lawmakers' perspective on the issues. Gray doesn't provide that in her presentation. Koppel-Bailey does.

My overall point is still valid: from my outside perspective it appears that Koppel-Bailey has a much deeper educational and professional background on the issues that are most important to moving our society forward right now: sustainability, green development and the economy, while he still puts forward a progressive agenda on civil and women's rights. His message honestly provides a much more powerful vision than any of the other candidates', which gives me the feeling that Jules is more likely be effective at making the dramatic progressive changes we need to make in today's world.

I didn't know Metsger was so unpopular among far-lefters.

That won't be good for Wu if he only wins 75% in the primary (no, he won't lose in the general, but still...).

I find it ironic how poorly candidates that sponsor Blue Oregon did :-)

Wu Hoo!!! Any candidate would be thrilled with 75% of the vote for the nomination.

If Democrats want to challenge someone for their seat, they should look ahead to Senator Ron Wyden's seat, whose horrible health plan mimics McCain's and would be a disaster for Americans with disabilities or pre-existing conditions.

I'd support Hobbs in a run against Wyden.