Smith Goes Negative
Primary season isn't over yet, but that hasn't stopped Senator Gordon Smith from releasing an ad attacking both Jeff Merkley and Steve Novick:
Since when do incumbents run on a "change" platform? Discuss.
May 02, 2008
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12:03 p.m.
May 2, '08
That ad is just too funny.
It's time for change? You bet it is. It's time to change who represents us in DC and send Gordon Smith home.
May 2, '08
not sure how an incumbent can run on change with a straight face... but we will see.
May 2, '08
This is like after the Iowa caucuses when all of the candidates suddenly started talking about change. He is going negative because he knows that if the race becomes about him, he'll lose. And that is a sad situation to be in.
May 2, '08
We can laugh all we want, but this is a smart move by Smith. He has all the money he needs, why not burn some defining the potential Democratic nominees before they have a chance to define themselves?
I was troubled by Merkley's decision to keep raising money during the session precisely because it opened him up to charges of hypocrisy and weakened his credibility on government ethics reform. What's his response going to be? "Federal races are different" or "I didn't take money from anyone I didn't already support" aren't going to fly.
Novick is going to have a tough time defending against the label of pro-tax liberal, but we've known that since the beginning. He needs to be ready with his sound bite response highlighting the important work that government does and the damage that Smith has done by cutting it.
1:41 p.m.
May 2, '08
I'd hope that when this sort of ad goes head-to-head with future Novick ads pointing out how vapid these traditional ads are that people may see through the B.S.
But there's no doubt we've got an uphill climb to take out Gordon Slippery Smith.
1:43 p.m.
May 2, '08
This is the "knife the baby" strategy. Same thing he did to Bradbury in 2002. He's got $4 million to spend and ready access to another $8 million if the race gets competitive.
Expect it to be all-attack all-the-time between now and November in every media market that matters to Democrats (PDX, Eugene).
There's a reason Gordon carried the tri-county region in his last re-election bid.
1:46 p.m.
May 2, '08
Miles:
It was definitely a smart move by Smith, no doubt about it.
Several of us had expressed concern about him raising money during the session. That concern was blown off by people, saying he'd never said he was going to take money during the session, that it was completely different, etc. Smith's not stupid - he's going to use anything that appears to be hypocritical or a double standard like that against them. And sure enough he is. I'm not sure how the Merkley campaign can frame this issue without sounding like it's a double standard or a loophole. It doesn't matter that there was absolutely nothing wrong with what Merkley did and that he was completely within his rights to raise money (after all, everyone else could), it's about the perception by the voters.
You're right that we knew the tax thing would come up on Novick. It's one of the most commonly used messages against Democrats. I think that Novick has done a great job thus far of framing the issue - that it's about tax fairness. It's something we all have to do better on - reframing the issue rather than just accepting the Republican's right-wing spin on it.
May 2, '08
Time for a Change? That is priceless! I couldn't agree more.
2:12 p.m.
May 2, '08
I'd like to echo Jenni's comments about Steve's successful framing of taxes in terms of fairness. He also can point to his efforts towards making government more efficient, which addresses one of the major concerns people have with paying taxes.
I've heard Steve make the point well that taxes are the price we pay for the services we want. As long as people believe their tax dollars are being spent well, I don't think most people have a problem with paying taxes.
On that point, Smith has no credibility and Steve will make the case well for holding him accountable.
2:21 p.m.
May 2, '08
I couldn't tell you how many times I have heard Steve point out that Smith has no credibility on fiscal issues because he supports most of the spending as well as all of the tax cuts. And it's true. People understand that services cost money. Steve has framed the tax issue very well, and as a Democrat should.
May 2, '08
Smith=change=hilarious
2:40 p.m.
May 2, '08
Issue framing has been a big part of the trainings that the DPO has been running over the past two years. It's something the Republicans and the right wing has been very, very good at, and it's won them a lot of elections.
We have to get better at it and stop just accepting their framing and trying to defend ourselves. Instead, we need to reframe the issue so that we're not constantly playing defense.
It's something that I've been trying to use a lot lately when talking with people about the city of Gresham. As many of you may know, it's hard to find a place more anti-tax than Gresham. We have the lowest tax of any major city in the state ($3.61 per $1,000), and there aren't many small cities that are lower than ours, either. We bring in $20 million in property taxes and another $20 million from other areas (our share of the county business tax, fees, money from other governmental sources, etc.). That's a whole $40 million for a city of 100,000 residents. I looked through the budgets for cities all over, and the standard would be about $1 million per 1,000 residents. So going from the low to the high, we should be in the $80-120 million range. And that's why almost 90% of our budget is fire and police and we have little money for anything else.
But right wingers out here have framed the issue as the city doesn't deserve any more money because it doesn't come through on promised services, already has enough, etc.
If our city is ever going to have the funds to do what it needs to be able to do as a large city, we need more money. And we're going to have to change the way the issue is being framed out here if we're ever going to have more money.
3:21 p.m.
May 2, '08
now THAT is a negative ad. Anytime you lead off with your opponent(s)...
May 2, '08
Weird Ad!
Now we know where Karl Rove is spending some of his spare time.
May 2, '08
Weird Ad!
Now we know where Karl Rove is spending some of his spare time.
5:24 p.m.
May 2, '08
I think it's a brilliant ad. Political jiu jitsu. The incumbent outsider versus the challenger insiders. Typical of the "turn the opponent's strength into a weakness" strategy that we've seen from the right wingers in recent years.
A good low-cost riposte would be a YouTube video of someone watching the ad who is totally unable to swallow the line of B.S. that Smith's people are spinning with some good pull-quotes showing just how establishment Smith actually is.
5:41 p.m.
May 2, '08
Sal:
Great idea!
May 2, '08
Are most "outsider" agents of change perennially ranked highly in Golf Digest's Washington Top 200?
Are you likely to change to the ol' boys network in Washington by re-electing a guy who values spending more than a million bucks on a golf putter that was once owned by a Scottish King?
May 2, '08
I would describe the strategy a bit different than does Sal. Republicans have for quite some time accused Democrats of what the Republican himself is guilty. This destroys the perceived right of the Democrat to criticize the Republican on that fault. It hardly matters with many folks who don't pay close enough attention that the charges against the Democrat are bogus. It might be called the faux glass house strategy.
May 2, '08
Reminds me of this exchange from "Oh Brother Where Art Thou:"
PAPPY Languishing! Goddamn campaign is languishing! We need a shot inna arm! Hear me, boys? Inna goddamn ARM! Election held tomorra, that sonofabitch Stokes would win it in a walk!
JUNIOR Well he's the reform candidate, Daddy.
PAPPY ...Yeah?
JUNIOR Well people like that reform. Maybe we should get us some.
PAPPY I'll reform you, you soft-headed sonofabitch! How we gonna run reform when we're the damn incumbent! Zat the best idea any you boys can come up with? REEform?! Weepin' Jesus on the cross! Eckard, you may as well start draftin' my concession speech right now!
Change candidate. Well if that is the best Sen. Smith can come up with he better start writing his concession speech.
May 2, '08
Tax and spend? How much has this war on Iraq that Gordon Smith voted for cost the American people in taxes? Goody-Two-Shoes took an oath to uphold the Constitution and betrayed that oath which means his word is worthless even if he has millions in the bank. It also means that to him the Constitution has no meaning except when it suits his purposes. Unfortunately, there is a large segment of people in Oregon who think the same way. Many of them probably have flags in their lapels and support-the-troops ribbons on their gas-guzzling SUVs and pickups.
May 2, '08
All Novick has to do is counter by saying he believes that government shouldn't spend money it doesn't have, and go on to show how Gordo has supported deficit spending. This used to be the Republican ploy, but they can't use it now.