Not If but When
Jeff Alworth
A bold headline from the NYT: "Pundits Declare the Race Over."
Very early this morning, after many voters had already gone to sleep, the conventional wisdom of the elite political pundit class that resides on television shifted hard, and possibly irretrievably, against SenatorHillary Clinton's continued viability as a presidential candidate....
The thought echoed throughout the world of instant political analysis, steamrolling the Clinton campaign’s attempts to promote the idea that her victory in Indiana was nonetheless an upset in the face of Mr. Obama’s heavy spending and his campaign’s predictions that he would win there, or that she could still come back if delegates in Florida and Michigan are seated.
(The NY Post, as always, was a little more obvious.)
What a big 5% that was in NC. Had Obama won by nine, he'd have garnered nearly as many delegates, would still have a sizeable lead in the popular vote, and would still be roughly where he is this morning. But by getting a 14-point win, he's now all but the declared nominee. None of that, of course, has anything to do with Clinton. She woke up today not a lot worse off than she expected--which means she's still a big long shot in the race to the White House. Perceptions may have changed, but the math not so much.
(You could say that what really happened was the two-month vacation from reality has ended. Winning primaries somehow allowed the Clinton campaign to create a bubble of optimism that kept the math at bay. Last night the bubble popped.)
So what will she do? She has three options, but the third--the nuclear
option--is merely hypothetical. The first option is to suspend her
campaign before Puerto Rico. Too many of her volunteers have worked
too hard for her to rob voters in WV, Kentucky, Oregon, South Dakota,
and Montana of their chance at relevance. But she could admit to
having read the writing on the wall and cease active campaigning.
The second option is to concede after Puerto Rico, in a graceful, party-uniting gesture, perhaps even with Obama on hand. (Even a closed, mournful affair would be adequate to begin uniting the party.)
What she won't do is exercise the nuclear option, despite people's worst fears. Clinton is a street fighter, a tough candidate who wasn't afraid to take hard shots to win the campaign. But there's absolutely no evidence that she's not, in the end, a team player. She has worked diligently for eight years as a senator and is one of the most reliable Democratic votes, having stuck with her party over 94% of the time since 2001. At 61, she's not at the end of her career--a cabinet position, a Supreme Court seat, a veep nod, or Senate Majority Leader are all potential futures. I'm sure the comment threads will light up with criticism for the way she ran her campaign, but by November, when Obama's the president-elect, all will be forgotten and forgiven.
For Clinton, the end of this campaign is now manifest, and what remains is a classy exit. She will play the most pivotal role in the remaining weeks of the primary, and has almost as much influence over the results in November as Obama. If she fights for Obama as hard as Dean did for Kerry, the party will enter the general with enormous enthusiasm and unity. I expect to see her do the right thing and look forward to seeing the Democrats finally turn their energy outward, at the woeful candidacy of John McCain.
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connect with blueoregon
May 7, '08
Selfishly, I want her to stay in until May 20, so I have the illusion that my vote is meaningful.
10:19 a.m.
May 7, '08
I'm with Patrick, in spirit at least. But I'd prefer to see Hillary concede.
May 7, '08
A classy end! This morning the Clinton campaign talked about their continuing quest for the "white" vote. I think "bitterness" and a huge debt is her legacy. No classiness to be found. She's now down $11 plus million of her own money and counting. And who is going to donate now? So she can pay herself back?? Nope, the George Wallace of '08 is going down in a destruction derby, unless she has some kind of conversion experience in the next few days.
May 7, '08
I'd like to think that she'll concede graciously, but I truly believe she'll stay in until a)enough Supers publicly declare so that she can't win even with the remaining Supers or b)until the convention in August.
There was a time when I held a great deal of respect for Senator Clinton, but the way this campaign has been run has been about her own power and political legacy, not about the good of the Democratic Party or the American people. I have gone from being an admirer of hers to truly fearing her affect on the Party and the nation.
I hope I am proved wrong and, as I said above, she concedes graciously and soon. I would never be so happy to be wrong. But I fear I am right and we all may have a long summer ahead of us.
11:00 a.m.
May 7, '08
According to CBS news "Sen. Hillary Clinton says she is staying in the Democratic presidential race until there is a nominee."
May 7, '08
It could actually help Obama if Hillary stays in the race until the 20th. If she drops out now Obama, as the presumptive nominee, is faced with the embarrassing possibility of losing in both West Virginia and Kentucky to someone who is no longer running. Its best if Hillary lets Oregon seal the deal and then drops out.
11:12 a.m.
May 7, '08
Kos is still talking about us.:)
"I still say that Oregon should push Obama over the 2,024.5 mark. Or if the Clinton campaign remains obtuse, enough to get him over whatever number he needs when including Michigan and Florida"
May 7, '08
as an obama supporter, i can't wait until hillary's inevitable, graceful exit (i predict she'll stick it out until june 3 and then concede shortly thereafter) when the rabid, foaming at-the-mouth abc crowd sit down to a big fat meal of crow as she puts all of her formidable talents into getting obama the win over mcfartboy in november. where, oh where will the hill-haters go then? will they swallow their undying animosity, or find a new outlet? hey guys, you know that chelsea's got a promising future...you could always try to tear that apart. at least after last night it's now virtually impossible to conceive of the abc'ers having the opportunity to be true to their word and turn traitor by voting for johnnyboy.
11:59 a.m.
May 7, '08
Another positive about Hillary staying in until the 20th is that many local jurisdictions have levies on the ballot for which a double majority vote is necessary.
Hillary on the ballot = big turnout = more support for public services.
Still voting for Obama, tho....
12:13 p.m.
May 7, '08
Dev, you make a most excellent point. One I hope is under discussion if she's looking to bow out before June 4.
May 7, '08
Don't forget, she still wants to make her case to the DNC on 5/31 to get FL and MI fully seated in her favor. There's a fair number of Clinton supporters on the Rules committee, and she's going to work them over pretty hard. While I don't see the committee making those decisions in her favor, that's really her last gasp of hope.
If the rumors are true, that she'll drop out by 6/15, this is also an opportunity for her to fund raise the $11M+ she's loaned her campaign to date, not to mention all the other debt her campaign has racked up. Be thankful our country's finances won't be run as recklessly as her campaign's finances. Go Obama!
May 7, '08
But there's absolutely no evidence that she's not, in the end, a team player.
Well, I would say there's a lot of evidence over the last few weeks. Not to rehash all the issues, but Clinton has pretty aggressively argued that Obama isn't ready to be Commander-in-Chief. That's exhibit one that she is not a "team player", if that term is defined as "wants to see a Democrat win." I agree with you that she is going to come around, but in my view the damage is already done.
As to whether she campaigns for Obama vigorously, I have thought for some time that Clinton's attacks on Obama are not strictly political, that she actually believes that Obama isn't ready to be president. If that's the case, it will be interesting to see if she campaigns vigorously, or just ceremoniously.
May 7, '08
Perhaps Clinton has one scenario in mind that goes like this. Put forth doubts about Obama enough that he will lose in 2008, clearing the way for her to run again in 2012.
If so, she will have abandoned women's rights in the process. The 2012 election may find two or three more conservatives on the SCOTUS, and maybe Roe v. Wade totally overturned.
On the other hand if she fights hard for Obama and he wins, she could be nominated as the next Supreme Court Judge. Not a bad consolation prize!
May 7, '08
She's not giving up Oregon yet- I just got robo-called by the Clinton Campaign- Bill Clinton asking for us to vote for Hillary in Oregon. Sorry, Bill. Not going to happen in this household.
MBD
May 7, '08
Re: Supreme Court, nooooooo, don't go there. Her legal record is then an open battle ground. I don't think even HRC is ambitiously stupid enough to go there.
1:29 p.m.
May 7, '08
The real news is that Uma's stalker is guilty! Why oh why do they bury the important news? Damn Post.
May 7, '08
I received a call from the Clinton campaign as well. It's fine that she continues campaigning, but the negative stuff from both campaigns should end NOW.
May 7, '08
PDXatheist, get a grip. There are plenty of people like yours truly who consider Obama a preference, not an anybody but Clinton candidate.
2:05 p.m.
May 7, '08
Put forth doubts about Obama enough that he will lose in 2008, clearing the way for her to run again in 2012.
Hillary was born in Oct. 1947. In 2012 she'll be 65. Look at the decline in McCain's vigor between 2000 and 2008. Heck, look at the decline in BILL Clinton's vigor in the last 8 years. This election is her last real shot at the job, which helps explain (but not excuse IMHO) her no-holds-barred approach.
May 7, '08
I am a Hillary supporter and i see that she is most likely not going to be on the ballot in November. :(
So now I must decide who I vote for after this. NO not McCain. And I have fundamental problems with those who I feel are too religious, so Obama is a tough call. Vote for Obama or Nader. Well Jeff, I must say this article has definately helped me, a Clinton supporter, make up his mind. And the continuous bashing of her is helping even more.
May 7, '08
Chad said: And I have fundamental problems with those who I feel are too religious, so Obama is a tough call. Vote for Obama or Nader.
Chad,
Can you give me one example of Barack shoving his religion down your throat? Can you give me one example of him saying he speaks to God and God tells him what to do? Just because the guy goes to church doesn't mean he's going to shove his religion down your throat and make you live a "Christian" lifestyle. The Clinton's made a pretty big show of themselves going to church while they were in the White House if I remember correctly.
There will always be bashers out there. You've got to realize that the vast majority of Obama supporters like me have more respect for Hillary than you could imagine. I just want to move on from Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton and the divisive brand of politics their names carry with them.
May 7, '08
They also invited lots of right reverends to counsel them on their "marriage" including the Reverend Wright.
May 7, '08
First of all he doesn't have to shove it down anyones throat. He only needs to allow it to affect his policy decisions. And as strongly as he campaigned on his religion, not here in Oregon obviously, I would say his religious convictions were a large part of his decision making proccess. CLICK HERE Please tell me this was just pandering.
3:22 p.m.
May 7, '08
Well Jeff, I must say this article has definately helped me, a Clinton supporter, make up his mind. And the continuous bashing of her is helping even more.
Chad, are you saying that my post comes off as bashing? Nowhere in it do I say anything negative about Clinton. I expect her to exit the race with class.
May 7, '08
Chad,
I see where you're coming from and I understand what you're trying to say. I have to disagree in that I don't think overall "Christian" values are a bad thing. Do unto others, helping the needy, etc... I think we need a President that understands those things and thinks about them and if he happens to be a Christian then fine. Being a good person is what Chrisitanity is all about and being a good person is a good trait for a President. Christian values are very much aligned with the Democratic message and I think it's about damned time we took that back from the Republicans who spew hate and call it Christianity.
I'm sick of the Republican's being able to say that Christian values are Republican values when they're not just because they don't like gay people and are anti-abortion. If you think for one second Barack Obama is going to appoint an anti-choice judge to the SCOTUS you're crazy. I think Barack fully understands what seperation of church and state means. I didn't see anything on that flyer that said he hates gay people, women that had abortions, muslims or anything else the right wingers hate. That was simply a flyer pointing out the man goes to church and believes in God. If you forget about 20% of the country still think's he's a muslim due to a right wing smear campaign on the internet.
Now after hearing what you've had to say I have the distinct feeling you just flat out don't like people that believe in God and are so uncomfortable about a Christian being able to talk about his or her personal convictions you just make fun of them for it and say their idiots. You're obviously getting on Barack for speaking to a group that constitutes the vast majority of the electorate and saying you can't vote for him because he has Christian convictions and may look to them when making decisions. Which one are you worried about him looking to? Giving to the poor, helping the needy? You're willing to waste a vote on Ralph Nader and not vote for Obama so that John McCain has a better chance of becoming the President? Really?
You probably think I'm a hardcore Christian too don't you? I haven't been to church in 15 years and don't really believe in God anymore so sorry to burst that idea if that's what you were thinking.
May 7, '08
Wow Garrett you read minds!!!!!!!
I never thought you were christian. And I wouldn't care if you were.
However, I feel strongly about certain things. And I prescribe to a certain kind of thought. Live and let Live. The Ideals that I am oppossed to are. Or perhaps for, and in which the church is not. Gay marriage. Abortion. Stem Cell research. yes those are the big ones, but there is more to it than that. I have no problem with those that believe in god, only those that have power to make policy that affects us all having such strong convictions to god that they see fit to campaign on those convictions.
Oh I know that Obama says he is for all these also, but there is little record of that and I feel very uncomfortable with the whole bit. A man with that much conviction is a bit hard pressed to keep it seperate. Besides, mine is one little vote. Nothing to worry about.
May 7, '08
Chad, Wasn't saying I was a mind reader...just making that clear I wasn't being evangelical here.
Your argument just isn't convincing. Howard Dean, Jim Jeffords, Max Baucus, Bob Graham all attend the UCC of which Barack Obama is a member of. I don't remember hearing those guys screaming to end a woman's right to choose, prevent gay marriage and stop stem cell research. Common attends the same church as Obama. The United Church of Christ doesn't campaign against those things either. If you're so comfortable with Hillary and bothered by Barack have you not heard about Hillary's membership in the "Fellowship" whose members included Rick Santorum and Sam Brownback or that she's a methodist, the same religion as President Bush. Here, you go ahead and read about it HERE
Again, Barack has to campaign that he is a Christian because somewhere around 20%+ of the electorate thinks he is a muslim. The same thing happened to John Kerry in 2004 and he chose to ignore the lie rather than confront it. As ridiculous as it is that is an issue and he needs to address it with the idiots that only read their e-mail in order not to be swift boated.
Sure you're just one little vote. I get that but every vote matters...even your one little vote.
May 7, '08
Hillary shouldn't drop out. She will be the November candidate when all this Obama smoke blows away. Hillary's 35 years of experience seems to be nothing compared to Obama's warrant of "Change." What people don't realize is just by putting any democrat in office, there will be change. Putting Hillary in office would improve our economy on the first day she would be in office. Not only does she have her own experience, her husband was president and held the longest economic growth the United States has ever seen (since it obviously takes a Clinton to clean up after a Bush). I will welcome Hillary as the new President, and be proud that she never gave us despite all the media bias towards Obama. And why didn't they just tell Obama to give up back in 07 when Clinton was way ahead in all the polls? He won't give up, and neither will see. When all of this is over, Hillary will be left standing.
May 7, '08
And why didn't they just tell Obama to give up back in 07 when Clinton was way ahead in all the polls?
Well Kacie...do you need to have the difference between a poll and an election result explained to you? Because in 07 Barack may have been down in a poll but in 08 he's beaten Hillary in an actual election...not a poll. Even if they seat Florida and Michigan as is (Barack wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan) she still needs to win 76% of the remaining votes in the remaining primaries to overtake Barack. Do you think that will happen?
She will be the November candidate when all this Obama smoke blows away.
You're delusional
6:53 p.m.
May 7, '08
the Obama "Christian" flyer was not something he or his campaign wanted to do. they were forced to take that step by all the "Obama is a Muslim raised at a madrassa" stealth emails earlier in the campaign. the Rev Wright nonsense pretty much gets the message across that he's not a Muslim but, in fact, a Christian.
his denomination, the United Church of Christ, is one of the most liberal around. they are not evangelical. they support gay rights (which, i believe, includes gay marriage, although he has stated he's not for gay marriage, one of the few things on which i think he's wrong). in his 20-year career in public service, he's lived what many of us would consider the ideal balance: he keeps church & state separate, living by the values that includes his faith but never using those to drive his politics directly. he's fully pro-choice.
if he had his way, he'd keep his Christianity quiet. it's like patriorism & the flag lapel pin: you don't have to display it to everyone so they know it's true. he knows it's true, and that's usually enough. but not when you're running for president. modern politics requires you MAKE SURE EVERYONE KNOWS YOU ARE A [patriot | christian | regular guy].
May 7, '08
Hey Oregon! Obama is a strong Democratic primary candidate, but a weak general election one. Hillary is simply trying to save the Democratic Party from itself. Did you ever wonder why Obama lost Mass. by 13% to Hillary? Read about it at Noquarterusa.net and the Patrick - Obama entry.
7:21 p.m.
May 7, '08
I think that's where many Democrats mess up - being Christian and a strong believer in Christianity doesn't mean that you believe in everything the church puts forward.
As many know, I'm an "evangelical" - I'm a Southern Baptist. But you know what? I am for gay marriage, I am pro-choice, I am a huge supporter of the separation of church and state, etc.
This is a big reason why many of us felt it was important to start a Faith Caucus in the Democratic Party of Oregon. People of faith are regularly misunderstood, especially those who are progressives/liberals.
The true teachings of Christianity are about treating others how you want to be treated, taking care of the poor and sick, etc. All of these other issues (abortion, gay rights, etc.) are things that have been added on by people. But those people don't represent all of us who are Christians and attend church.
May 7, '08
Hey Oregon! Obama is a strong Democratic primary candidate, but a weak general election one. Hillary is simply trying to save the Democratic Party from itself. Did you ever wonder why Obama lost Mass. by 13% to Hillary?
What and Obama is going to lose Mass to McCain? When was the last time Mass went for a Republican? You're telling me Barack Obama is going to look like a weak candidate when standing on stage at a debate with the corpse of John McCain? McCain will lose his temper at some point as well and that's going to be high comedy to watch.
Get over it...she's lost
May 7, '08
Yo Garrett!
All I ask is that you read that website article. Also, Obamatruth.org is worth a look.
May 7, '08
Not only does she have her own experience, her husband was president and held the longest economic growth the United States has ever seen
Aside from the tortured word usage and syntax, isn't there something slightly problematic here? We're supposed to elect Hillary Clinton on the basis of what the US economy was doing while her spouse was president? Here's some news: presidents in fact have little influence over the economy (the federal Reserve has a lot more). Also, why does anything that happened during Bill Clinton's administration have ANY bearing on Hillary Clinton's qualifications?
May 7, '08
People who don't support Hillary Clinton's campaign are supposed to be woman haters, but...Hillary Clinton, a proud feminist, runs on the record of her HUSBAND'S administation? Does anyone else see some irony here?
9:52 p.m.
May 7, '08
Joel Dan Walls,
This very strong feminist has a problem with it...if the proof was more completely there that she was the de facto VP, like she seems to say she was, than I would believe it. She just can't pick and choose where she instrumental (Ireland?) and not (NAFTA?), though.
I think one of my main problems with it is that there are many women who are making records on their own (Sebelius, for one) and they are being overshadowed by the Clinton machine. If she was simply running on her Senate record, then I would be much happier with the whole scenario. But she's not. Bummer.
May 8, '08
PDXatheist, get a grip.
oh no....wait a minute....my grip on reality is slipping every second....it's all in my imagination!
joe dan, i would like you to point out where in my post (did you notice that i am an obama supporter myself?) did i say that all obama supporters are member of the abc crowd? if so, please point it out to me cuz i missed it.
the fact is there is a large and vocal segment of people who support obama who have an irrational hatred of everything clinton, and my post was addressed to them. (or more accurately, about them.) if you aren't one of those folks, as i'm not, don't get your panties in a wad.
May 8, '08
So I was driving to work this morning and some radio hosts were saying that Hillary was going to have a press conference today to announce her intention to run for President as an Independent candidate. Clearly, this did not happen but it got me thinking that this would be Jeff's "true" nuclear scenario for Hillary. Genius is madness and be damned if it wouldn't be right in Hillary's wheelhouse.
In the absence of everything else this primary season, Hillary has run to the chapel of the working class hero in order to perpetuate her "fighter" image. She's hammered Obama as a lost cause for this constituency and, as a result, whipped her supporters into an anti-Obama frenzy. This is a perfect foundation on which for her to base a maverick run to the White House. Consider:
(1) She beat Obama in most big electoral states. No doubt she figures she can do it again in November.
(2) Running as an independent is in keeping with her calculus of Obama as being ill-prepared to be President.
(3) She believes she can beat McCain in a battle of centrists.
Of course, she'll need all $108MM of the Clinton bankroll to make this happen. But it sure would make things fun this Fall.
May 8, '08
In the absence of everything else this primary season, Hillary has run to the chapel of the working class hero in order to perpetuate her "fighter" image.
You mean the white working class because she is certainly ignoring everyone else when she talks about her demographics.
May 8, '08
The Agave King said: "She believes she can beat McCain in a battle of centrists."
"Centrist" does not refer to those who threaten to obliterate Iran or to continue to occupy Iraq. It does not refer to those who oppose single-payer, universal healthcare. It does not refer to restraining efforts to decrease corporate power and welfare; nor to continuing to increase the huge, bloated, wasteful military budget.
ANOTHER YEAR OF CARNAGE, BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE CORPORATE DEMOCRATS
Clinton, McCain, and Obama are right-of-center militarists and corporatists, not "centrists". If you want a centrist, e.g., someone who will represent a plurality of U.S. citizens, then you need to go elsewhere:
ELSEWHERE