NC has been called --- Obama is killing Clinton, looks like a win by greater than 10 points.

I'm going to stick my neck out and say that Clinton will win Indiana by 5 points. Indianapolis is 20% in and Obama he's up by 18 points. Clinton is rocking in the suburbs and rural counties. The NW corner of the state (Gary area) has not yet reported. Obama should win that big.

It will be close. A split result is good for the Clinton forces.

Maybe we'll see a candidate debate in Oregon after all...

I for one am too elite for a debate Paul.

Hey Paul - I converted this into an "open discussion" item.

Hot damn. Check out the Indy Star's home page and election tracker. Why can't the Oregonian have election results like that?

Kari, no problem.

Looks like it continues to tighten in Indiana. Gary still not in ...

Kari, why can't the Big O have anything decent online? when it comes to web editions, they are at the bottom. it's embarrassing. compare them to the KC Star, my brother's newspaper. equivalent markets, not even close to equivalent websites. (plus: they have my brother! and it's his birthday!!)

Nights like tonight are so exciting ! Even if Clinton pulls out Indiana, which she probably will, her momentum is fading fast and the wind is no longer beneath her wings. It is a tall order for her to come out and rally the troops in Indiana or elsewhere. Money is already a struggle for her campaign and people don't like to give to a losing candidate. I would be thrilled to see this end with Obama's acceptance speech on May 20th but I would be even more thrilled for this to end sooner for the good of the party and the good of the general.Superdelegates should have their questions sufficiently answered. Time to get off the sidelines. Please Clinton campaign. We have enough scorched earth. Call it a day and end on a more dignified note.

the polls had her up by around 8 points this morning, and she's winning by 4 or less. that shows a strong recovery for Obama. meanwhile, in NC, he's doubled where he was in the polls there. so it seems that on the day, voters are doing what they've not done for a while: turning to Obama at the last minute. of course that's guessing before the polls are closed in IN and before the quality exit poll info is done. but it looks a lot better now than it has for a long time.

if this holds up, the campaign is effectively over. the SDs will begin the move to end it soon. even if they wait until after all the primaries are done, i think by then they'll simply be underscoring the reality: Obama has won.

kos:

"If Clinton were to drop out this week, we'd face an uncomfortable situation in West Virginia, with Clinton likely crushing Obama. That would look terrible for the presumptive nominee.

Better than that would be to garner enough superdelegate commitments this week, so that Oregon can push Obama past 2,024. That way, it isn't the supers who clinch it for Obama, but actual voters."

i just noticed this about that very cool county-by-county tracker at the Indy Star: "This feature works only in Safari and Firefox browsers."

w00t. IE is toast, babies, but we knew that long ago.

and just to get really silly, there've been posts in various places about Obama being a Mac & Hillary a PC; i think Obama as Firefox & Hillary as IE is more like it. (more accurately, and this is probably too geeky, Obama is Safari and Howard Dean was & is Firefox.)

The Obama campaign says that Oregon will put him over the top on pledged delegates, greater than 50% of the total. This will end the contest. It is now all up to Oregon.

WOW. Hillary just wrote off Oregon.

"These next primaries are another test. I intend to work my heart out in West Virginia and Kentucky this month. And I intend to win them in November."

WTF?

Matthews just mentioned OR being the endgame day again.

I should say, pretty classy speech by Clinton. It was a give-up speech in tone, with strong healing notes, which tonight I think was appropriate.

I just rewound that clip and watched it a few times. I'm pretty sure that Bill Clinton leaned over to Chelsea and said, "She didn't say anything about Oregon. ... She left out Oregon."

Chelsea kind of raised her eyebrows.

Yea, all the Advance Internet newspaper sites are awful. They're hard to navigate, especially since their drop down menus don't work on most browsers. You get lost between the Oregonian page and the Oregon Live page on the same topic. Most of the time I'm trying to find the stuff that was in the print edition so I can link to it, and it gets impossible to find things. They run you around and around in circles trying to find things.

Back when I worked for the company a few years back, we made a lot of suggestions about how things could be improved. We used the site a lot every day, and we learned what the problems were, where things could be changed, etc. They weren't interested in change - the sites all run off a set template and they didn't want to change. It didn't matter how terrible the site was, they weren't willing to change. Now I cringe every time I need to use their site.

wes: LOL

Wes, As my friends would say, Obama is Dot Org and Clinton is Dot Com.

Obama won 39% of white women in Indiana...awesome. Who only attracts black now? WOOT!

of course the polls had "margins of error". i guess i should have said, the composites, which is what i was referring to (and off the top of my head, which may have beautiful silver hair but the memory power at times is iffy). with the composites, you kind of wash out the MoE, compared to a single poll. the main point is that Obama has outperformed expectations strongly today. that is the bottom line of the day. and after all the distractions -- and btw, kudos to Steve Duin for his words this morning -- it shows the voters were able to set the junk aside and vote based both on issues and the need for real change.

Hillary may win IN, but she's lost the nomination today.

OK Gang, I don't want to toot my own horn, but if you hop over to WashcoDems.org and click on the red Politi-Poll button, you can weigh in on our latest highly scientific poll about the Dem primary battles, and how best to put it to bed. Cheers, Glen

What makes Obama's decisive victory in North Carolina so devastating -- besides the loss of more delegates and any hopes of catching Obama's popular vote total -- is that Clinton invested considerable campaign resources there. Those are field organizers and media dollars that could have been spent in Oregon but weren't.

Closer to home, tonight's results have to be considered good news for Novick and other Oregon down-ticket races counting on the 30,000 new dems registered by the Obama campaign. If the race ended tonight, turnout here in Oregon would look much different May 20.

Man! I'm so conflicted! 1) I want Hillary to wake up to reality and go back to New York but 2) It's gonna come down to Oregon. How flippin' cool is that!! Can't stand it!

Oh, and Karol, if it wasn't so late in the campaign, I'd suggest you make T-shirts off of the dot.com vs. dot.org thang...you'd be rich.

KimberlyG, I would tried to hang in for your argument if you didn't say this: "Having the nomination stolen by three demographics: youth, African Americans and college educated (making over $100,000). Welcome to the new Democratic Party; it should be awful." Since I fit all three - minus the 100k - I don't think I "stole" it, I vote. I'm an American and its too bad you don't see that. I'm absolutely for real and I know for a fact you would dish out your shit about blacks stealing elections if you had to look me in the eye. Go somewhere else. Only adult, non-racist discourse allowed.

Ok, not done with you, KimberlyG - if that's your real name.

You are patently insulting. While I become exhausted defending my people all the time from asses like you, I will give this time because you are not the only one. Black people don't only vote other Black people based on skin color. Just like women don't like to vote for women just because they have the corresponding body parts. Obama is smart, well-spoken, experienced, passionate and has awakened sleeping Americans to the promise of tomorrow. And yes, friend, he happens to be half-white with black skin. His skin isn't his sin, sister.

And guess what? White people rule this country. We aren't stealing your jobs, taking over, or any such nonsense that worries people like you. Oh wait, we are having sex with your daughters and sons, tainting the blood line (hence, Mr. Obama). We are still poor in higher numbers, still dropping out of school in higher numbers and still in jail in higher numbers disporpotionately to the country. Why is that? Many, many reasons, but I tell you what: We aren't stupid. We are recovering from African diaspora, slavery, and segregation. And, now, finally, someone of color that all Americans can follow and the best you can come up with is that Blacks "steal" the party?

KimberlyG, your assanine comments are the precise reason Obama continues to be the underdog. Unfortuntatly for me, you aren't the only one with thought patterns similar to the 18th century.

Kimberyly, go get some facts. Obama is winning white voters of all kinds across the country. he's obviously doing that in Indiana (where it's now down to under 2% with Lake County, next door to Chicago, starting to report at last). he did it in Washington, Idaho, Alaska, Nebraska... Charlie, can you add the other states he's won more than a few white guys like you & me? he won big in Wisconsin, yes more liberal than PA or OH but pretty damn white & working class.

you don't win a nomination that Obama is doing by getting only a few demographics. no group is big enough. Obama is winning across the board -- big in some groups, and strong enough in others. it's called a coalition, and Obama has it like no candidate has done in a very long time. he's getting a near unanimous black vote not because he's black but because the racist undertones of the Clinton campaign have simply gotten more and more blatant. if women rallied to Hillary in NH, you're seeing that replayed over and over again as African Americans say "enough" and make their stand in the most meaningful way you can in a democracy: with their vote.

and when this coalition crushes McNasty in November, you'll realize just how exciting the new Democratic Party is.

I don't get it: How does people voting amount to stealing? I don't fit any of those demographics, but I can't read what KimberlyG wrote without cringing.

Holy Florida, Batman.

It's just after 9:00 pm.

Clinton is currently ahead in Indiana by 20,000 votes.

Among Hamilton, Hancock, LaPorte and Marion counties there's about 5,000 votes remaining to be counted. Averaged together, these counties are splitting.

Lake County, featuring the great city of Gary, IN is the last large county with significant votes to be counted.

Currently the Indianapolis Star and New York Times are reporting that with 28% of precincts reporting in Lake County that Obama is taking that it by a score of 74.7% to 25.3%.

It appears that Lake County has about 105,000 voters.

If Obama's 75/25 lead holds up he takes Indiana?

Or we recount it?

WTF!? I mean, W. T. F? . Thanks, Karol for taking on KimberlyG, cause you're more polite than I am!

For ONCE African American and urban people make a true difference in a race and shocking...some people just can't deal.

Here's a little exercise, tired white folks. Gather up your power. As I say to my small children, it's time to share. Get used to it.

Kimberly....this race has reminded me how much work our party still needs to do in terms of race. Being a "better educated" person does not make anyone a better, more worthy human. But it does make you...better educated. Perhaps you could drive down to "the beach" and see if you can find Sandra L. She was waiting for the tide to turn.....

Go Lake County! My father's been camped out in Indiana for the past week canvassing and organizing for Obama. Can't wait to get details.

Yeah, we do call it "the coast" (born and raised sweetheart). We were ribbing SL last night for calling it "the beach". Its all good.

Except when you include the 30-35 demographic, I'm not "young" (which in this election typically means those under the age of 30 who are just voting for maybe the first or second time... I've missed only 2 minor elections in 12 years). I don't have a college degree. I'm about as white as they come. And I don't make $100K (we don't make half that). Yet I'm an Obama supporter. And I know plenty of people just like me that are Obama supporters as well.

Did you ever think that those demographics are voting for Obama for a reason other than race? Could it have something to do with his policies and how it could help the people within those demographics? That maybe African Americans see him as having the right policies to help their community? Or that young people see him as the right person to turn things around so they can have a better future instead of the bleak future they face now? Or that those with college degrees see someone who will better things so that there will be good paying jobs for those with degrees and that they won't end up working some crummy job in retail or whatever that makes under $30K a year?

i was born in Springfield and have lived in: Corvallis, Riddle, Bend, Portland and Eugene -- and i go to the beach. it's over there at the coast. where they blowed up the whale, still Oregon's singular moment of video glory.

KimG - white people vote for white people all the time. Me voting for Obama doesn't make me racist against whites, it makes me smarter than most. And is no one's "turn" to be president. Its Americans turn not to be rode hard and put away wet every.four.years, until someone cares about what we want, not dumb talking points like repealing a gas tax. Lame, Hillary. I don't want to save $30 over three months that won't even fill my tank once in one trip to the station.

How come when I sit with other Black people I'm being racist but when a group of white people do the same they are just being comfortable?

Damn those evening meetings--I miss out on all the nice celebration.

To Kimberley, a couple thoughts: obviously it's about race. It's also about gender. Blacks account for something like 12% of the electorate and women 55%. So if you're going to argue demographics, careful who you label a thief.

And of course, race cuts both ways. If there are blacks voting for Obama because he's black, then there are whites voting against him because he's black. But Obama isn't running as a black candidate, and he's no more responsible for the racial dynamic than Hillary is for her racist voters. (Tough term, but we have unfortunately seen them rear their heads in the past week.) Hillary isn't running as a white candidate, and with the exception of a few cutthroat comments from her boneheaded husband, she's not fanning those flames, either.

So you cite a dynamic that has no agent. Race is an issue in this election because it's an issue in America.

But it's not only about race. If it were, Obama would get crushed. He's currently running at 49% in Indiana, a red state with a white population of 88.3%. If whites aren't voting for him, how is he running even? By last count, some 15 million people have cast a ballot for Obama, and the overwhelming majority were white.

Could it be that you're not prepared to hear that he's run a better campaign, has better solutions, and is a better candidate than Hillary? Or are his voters just stooges?

Margin's down to 16,609 votes. With almost 1.2 million votes counted already, that's awfully close.

9:50 pm and IN has just updated.

With 57% of precincts reporting in Lake County, Obama's lead has waned a bit but still stands at 65%-35%.

Current total for the state of IN has Clinton edging Obama by a margin of 50.7% to 49.3%

Must..remember..to breath....

The mayor in Gary, Indiana said they've never had this kind of turnout before, which is causing the vote count to run late. They had three times as many people vote as they've ever had before (11,000).

They're around 56% of the vote counted now, and expect to have more numbers in about 20 minutes.

For some reason unlike other counties they're not reporting every few percent - they're turning them in at very large chunks instead (28% twice).

That should say they had three times as many people vote EARLY as they've ever had...

KimberlyG, some advice from someone I suspect a bit older and burned a few more times over intemperate internet comments.

Just apologize for your comments and be over with it.

But saying you're sorry but then following up with this

Okay, people before you attempt to have me burned at the stake let me clarify, perhaps stolen wasn't the right word or was chosen hastily. Let's not flip out! Don't you think that Hillary / Edwards / Et cetera must be thinking the election has been stolen from them after they have waited their turn to run?

just digs a deeper hole.

"Wasn't the right word"? Then you use it again? No, it is completely the wrong, inappropriate, racially insensitive word.

After they have "waited their turn"? What does that mean? Do you think the presidency is some sort of line that people get into?

Clinton 606,497 Obama 589,888

[Refresh]

Clinton 606,497 Obama 589,888

"dammit" [Refresh]

Clinton 606,497 Obama 589,888

"dammit" [Refresh]

Clinton 606,497 Obama 589,888

etc.

I am amazed at Indiana.

And my wife pointed out how smart Obama played this tonight.

When he "conceded" Indiana around 8 pm our time, the NY Times blog wrote "Perhaps Obama knows something we don't."

But my wife pointed out that it was a brilliant strategic move. If he lost, he is conceding. But if he won, or made it very close, he's successfully lowered expectations that very night.

Amazing. If he is within 2 or 3 points, I think the race is over. Superdelegates will begin to peel off rapidly.

With 99% reporting, Clinton has jumped out to a 22,000 vote lead--insurmountable now. Put a fork in Indy, she squeaked it out.

We're now at 99% with the numbers going up very little, which means a bunch of rural counts just came in, with almost all precincts outstanding being urban.

Clinton: 637,389 Obama: 615,370

Clinton's lead: 22,019

Places still out, with the exception of one very small rural county, are all heavy Obama supporting areas. So they say that she may squeak through with a very small lead.

Indiana was just announced for Hillary...at least now I can go to bed...

They're showing on CNN that the reason why Clinton won Indiana was seniors - Obama won the vote under age 65, but Clinton won 2-1 on those over the age of 65 (69% for Clinton, where other groups were only voting about 47% for her).

So props to Hillary for eking it out. But in the battle of perceptions--in which the win in Texas kept Obama from "closing the deal"--the 1.8% victory in Indiana can hardly be seen as encouraging.

I think the over-under for expectations was 10% for Obama in NC and 5% in Indiana for Clinton. Anything between 5% and 10% would have been considered a wash. And anything under 5% is a loss. I hate the perceptions game, but that's the narrative coming out, and with little chance to win the popular vote, no chance of winning the most states, and no real mathematical chance for winning the most pledged delegates, that perception may be harder to shake. There's just not enough game left for her to catch up.

Never say never, but this is a pretty big night, Obamaniacs. (Thank god I've already voted!)

Just because you've "waited your turn" doesn't make you the better candidate. And for them to think they deserved the nomination just because they waited their turn is just wrong - it's not democratic that's for sure.

I'm sorry, but attacking Democratic activists (saying she is losing because Democratic activists are voting) isn't furthering the Party. I'm a long-time Democratic activist and would definitely be called a party "faithful." And I'm an Obama supporter.

One more and that's enough out of me. Kimberley, in response to your comment up-thread, I do think the conversation's starting. And it will continue and deepen. And when Obama wins the presidency, it will deepen further. With any luck, in 25 years, America will look so different that we'll marvel at this period in history, much like we marvel at the mid-50s in the US from 2008.

As to this comment, I just can't let it go: "Both Edwards and Clinton waited for older leaders within the party to make their run(s)." What are you talking about? Hillary didn't run in '04 for strategic reasons, and Edwards did, after a paltry six years in the Senate. Edwards was one of the least-experienced candidates in memory, having exactly six years of elective service under his belt. He was all of 51 years old.

Karol, will you be voting for Obama's black half or his white half? i haven't made up my mind which one i'm voting for. there's compelling reasons to vote for each. i just don't know which one to vote for, though. and sometimes it gets confusing and i don't know which Obama i'm even rooting for.

i do know i'm voting for Novick's hook. my left hand has been badly injured twice and it's all gnarled and bent and weird. i think his experience as a person of different left-handedness makes him more qualified to represent me. for too long, people with 2 good hands have ruled politics and i'm sick of it. it's our turn this year!

When he "conceded" Indiana around 8 pm our time, the NY Times blog wrote "Perhaps Obama knows something we don't." But my wife pointed out that it was a brilliant strategic move. If he lost, he is conceding. But if he won, or made it very close, he's successfully lowered expectations that very night.

I think it was Russert (this is like 830, mind you) who said that the Obama people told him they penciled it out about 15,000 short.

Beware their spreadsheets. They are GOOD.

TA - I think I'm voting for the black half with my partner in crime voting for the white half. That's how we roll so we figure we'd show that to the world. I do think RSK is right; between two equally qualified candidates, I'll pick the person of color or the woman. In this case, I think the Big O is more qualified, more motivating to Americans and smarter in some ways than Hillary. So, that's my choice. Plus, it doesn't hurt to be able to look up as see someone in power who looks like me. It does wonders for the mind and spirit and will go along was for minorities of every stripe in America to know that white people have faith in us to do something amazing; and not just because we are on some affirmative action bandwagon.

Boy, it's going to be interesting to see what the final numbers in Indiana end up being. They were making a big deal out of her lead going up to 22,000 last night, but I see an update just went in a few minutes ago and that lead is down to 14,000.

Sadie, I agree. There is a standard that women and people of color have to be 200% better to be considered equal. I think the Big O is that way naturally, but I feel there have been more questions about his skill potential than Hillary's. Though, Hillary has been getting it from some pundits about her gender. Its a no-win for both of them. What makes KimG's comment about youth and blacks "stealing" elections more infuriating, is that young people, minorities and liberals are the wave of the future and should be setting the tone for what we want to see in our country and our party. What I want to see is woman and people of color taking charge and sharing responsibility with the usual suspects.