How the delegate math applies to Oregon

Kari Chisholm

Back in February, I wrote a post explaining "delegate math" - the rather arcane ways that delegates are assigned in a state to the presidential candidates.

I just got off the phone with Wayne Kinney, a superdelegate and DNC Committeeman for Oregon. He understands this stuff better than anyone in the state, and is responsible for most of the planning and execution of our state party conventions and whatnot.

First, some basics:

• Oregon has 52 pledged delegates.
• 34 of those delegates will be assigned based on the vote totals in the five congressional districts (the numbers are based on Democratic performance in the '04 presidential and '06 gubernatorial elections.)
  • 1st CD (Wu): 7 delegates
  • 2nd CD (Walden): 5 delegates
  • 3rd CD (Blumenauer): 9 delegates
  • 4th CD (DeFazio): 7 delegates
  • 5th CD (Hooley): 6 delegates
• Another 18 delegates will be assigned according to the statewide total.

Please note that's just not as simple as taking the statewide percentages and multiplying by 52. The totals in the individual congressional districts matter much, much more.

Now comes the fun part - the math. To simply things for a moment, consider a three-delegate district. If one candidate gets 51% of the vote, that candidate would get two delegates. Simple, right? Consider a four-delegate district: If one candidate gets 51% of the vote, that candidate only gets two delegates. In fact, you'd need to get past halfway to 75% - or 62.5% - in order to "tip over" and "round up" to three delegates.

So, how does this apply to Oregon?

• In the 2nd district, with 5 delegates, unless the winning candidate gets over 70% of the vote, it's going to be a 3-2 split. Even a 51-49 vote will lead to a 3-2 split.

• In the 5th district, with 6 delegates, it's going to be a 3-3 split, unless the winning candidate gets over 58.4%, then it's a 4-2 split. 75% of the vote earns a 5-1 split.

• In the 1st and 4th districts, each with 7 delegates, it's going to be a 4-3 split, unless the winning candidate gets over 64.3%, then it's a 5-2 split. 78.6% of the vote earns a 6-1 split.

• In the 3rd district, with 9 delegates, it's going to be a 5-4 split, unless the winning candidate gets over 61.2%, then it's a 6-3 split. 72.3% of the vote earns a 7-2 split. 83.4% of the vote earns an 8-1 split.

Once that's done, the same math will basically apply to the 18 statewide delegates - but the breaks come much more regularly; every 5-6% more vote earns another delegate.

One more very important thing. We're all going to want to know EXACTLY what these breakdowns are tonight. But here's the problem: In Oregon, the votes will be reported by the counties, aggregated into county-level totals.

But Multnomah, Clackamas, Benton, and Josephine Counties are split across congressional districts. The only way to get congressional-district vote totals is to get the precinct-level results and reassemble them into congressional-district totals.

And that won't be happening for a few days. Wayne Kinney tells me that the DPO is working closely with the Elections Division - and they're working closely with the county clerks. At the latest, we'll get the final numbers of delegates for Obama and Clinton sometime on Monday. Possibly sooner.

So, watch the totals, enjoy the night, but don't panic if you can't figure out exactly how many delegates your favorite candidate has won tonight.

By Kari Chisholm May 20, 2008