The Dem race surprises me a little. As a resident of this district I would have thought Schrader would lead with more name recognition. But this poll tells me there isn't a lot of name recognition with the huge undecided. So there's time for Marks to step up.

On the other side looks like the country club Rs vs. the social conservatives. Maybe the Rs are burnt out with Mannix. Erickson seems like such a sleaze though.

Another question: What's with Marks doing so well with Democrats who say they are conservative or pro-life?

Who would be the easier opponent for the Dems, Mannix or Erickson?

I have to believe, in part from these polls but mostly because they confirm my earlier suspicions, that Mannix would be easier because he has more baggage and fewer financial resources. Erickson, as more of a "clean slate" candidate, seems to attract more moderate and independent voters, which I think will determine this race. Not that Schrader won't be able to him too, but I think Mannix simply has more baggage whereas Erickson seems to represent in (conservative) voters minds whatever they are looking for in a candidate, simply because he's taken so few firm stances on anything and has no track record.

I wonder if most older Oregon Republicans still share Norma Paulus-Dave Frohnmayer moderate views, and so are turned off by Mannix's red-meat conservative populism.

I think Tom may be on to something. It's hard to remember, but before the 90s, the Oregon Republican Party was actually relatively respectable. They understood the economic and cultural issues in Oregon and, even though I disagreed with some of their prescriptions, they proposed solutions that made a certain amount of sense.

Now, of course, they're angry, small, bitter and divorced from what Oregonians actually care about. They're obsessed with homosexuality and the Portland teachers' union. They've gone off the deep end.

<h2>Perhaps the older Republicans remember a pre-Mannix time when the Republican Party was solvent and sane.</h2>