Buzz Poll Follow-up: Nominee Fidelity
Jeff Alworth
A couple days ago, I posted a buzz poll to find out whether or not readers would support the Democratic nominee even if the candidate they support loses. It's far from a scientific poll: those who responded were self-selected, and the readership of BlueOregon are hardly a representative sample of the state's voters. However, readers are among the most politically active, and most likely to get caught up in the emotion of the moment. So while we can't make generalizations about the larger population, we may be able to see where the junkies are right now. And this poll can also form a baseline for a follow-up once the nominee is settled.
So, what did we learn?
As I write this, a total of 465 people have responded to the poll. Of these 148 (31.8%) are Clinton backers, and 317 (68.2%) support Obama. This pattern, of a two-to-one preference for Obama, held consistently over the course of the poll. The percentage of voters who would support the other candidate were similar--77% of Hillary supporters would vote Obama, and 75% of Obama supporters would vote Hillary.
The biggest difference is that only 5% of the Obama voters would cross over to vote for McCain in the event of a Clinton nomination. Sixteen percent wouldn't vote for either Clinton or McCain. But for Hillary voters, the percentages were just about reversed--14% wouldn't vote Obama but might support McCain, while 5% would support neither Obama nor McCain.
Interestingly, this pattern is similar to general-population polling released last week showing Clinton voters were more likely (28%) to vote McCain than Obama voters (19%) if their candidate loses. I'll leave it to bigger brains to explain why the Oregon netroots mirror the national polling on this point.
 |
More Recent Posts | |
Albert Kaufman |
|
Guest Column |
|
Kari Chisholm |
|
Kari Chisholm |
Final pre-census estimate: Oregon's getting a sixth congressional seat |
Albert Kaufman |
Polluted by Money - How corporate cash corrupted one of the greenest states in America |
Guest Column |
|
Albert Kaufman |
Our Democrat Representatives in Action - What's on your wish list? |
Kari Chisholm |
|
Guest Column |
|
Kari Chisholm |
|
connect with blueoregon
Apr 3, '08
Interestingly, this pattern is similar to general-population polling released last week showing Clinton voters were more likely (28%) to vote McCain than Obama voters
It's really unfortunate that this race is driving such a wedge between Dems -- to the extent that some would support McCain in the general.
For me, PA is the last straw with Clinton. If she doesn't have a convincing performance there...she's going to have to go. If she doesn't, she'll only be treading water in the Titanic.
Apr 3, '08
Kos says a goodly percentage of this non-fidelity can be attributed to "bluster." He and others would say that the cold slap in the face of a deeper reflection of the reality of a third Bush term we might decide otherwise. How the party leadership resolves this in a way that doesn't cause deep and unresolved grievance may shape it all.
I think each of us also doesn't want to think that our fidelity to a Dem. candidate should be taken for granted. We want to think that our vote is somehow "earned" by the opposing candidate. On deeper reflection that may be a narcissistic fantasy.
11:52 a.m.
Apr 3, '08
He and others would say that the cold slap in the face of a deeper reflection of the reality of a third Bush term we might decide otherwise.
I like the word "emotion," but I totally agree. One reason I wanted to do the buzz poll now was so I could do it again in August/Sept as a comparison. My secret plan is to demonstrate that these views are by no means stable. We'll see if I'm right.
12:28 p.m.
Apr 3, '08
Posted by: Bill R. | Apr 3, 2008 11:43:43 AM
Kos says a goodly percentage of this non-fidelity can be attributed to "bluster."
I strongly suspect that he is right about that.
People on both sides can say all they want about the other candidate. But at the end of the day, or in this case the General Election, who ends up nominating the next Justice to the SCOTUS will absolutely be a deal breaker for most who now say that they'll vote McCain if their guy/gal doesn't win the Dem nomination.
Apr 3, '08
Well at this point which would be worse? Isn't almost as big an issue if the disafeected democrat voters sit on their hands and stay at home election day? That could have additional problems for state and local races in additional to the national implications.
1:27 p.m.
Apr 3, '08
I would dearly love to know why any Democrat would consider for a second voting for John McCain, no matter how resentful they might be because "their" candidate failed to get the nomination. I've heard some mantra about wanting a "strong and resolute" president, willing to stand up to the terraists but, even if someone was foolish enough to believe that neither Clinton or Obama isn't "tough enough", how could a Democrat or liberal ignore the Supreme Court, health care . . . forget it, the list is too long.
It really does sound like someone taking their ball home because they didn't get picked first.
Apr 4, '08
I would dearly love to know why any Democrat would consider for a second voting for John McCain, no matter how resentful they might be because "their" candidate failed to get the nomination.
Jeff: I've basically heard it's because they think the media sladers Hillary and her name recognition. If you want to pull someone to vote out of a hat you'll vote for Clinton. I dont think there are any facts but I'd be willing to bet W. got a few vttes cause his last name was Bush. I'd also bet Hillary won Michigan and Florida because her last name was Clinton. It's something people recognize so they pencil in the little circle or punch the chad.
No matter who the nominee is I think they'll beat McCain he's a joke.