Hillary won the Michigan primary but doesn't carry Michigan?

The MI primary was an obligatory excercise. Hillary was the only Dem on the ballot there because Obama and Edwards took their names off since the delegates were blocked.

Polls in February/March of an eventual contest in November are more or less useless.

More on that poll from Daily Kos: Note the statement about Obama expanding the map and states of contention.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/6/16340/84400/162/470703

More on the SUSA map Hotlist by kos Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 02:15:00 PM PST

That last thread on the SUSA national poll is getting huge, so I'll use this as overflow.

Bowers took a look at the point spreads:

Solid Clinton--77 (eleven or more points): AR, DC, IL, MA, NY, RI

Lean Clinton--126 (six to ten points): CA, CT, FL, ME, MD, OH, VT

Toss Up--135 (five points or less): DE, HI, IA, MI, MN, MO, NJ, NM, OR, PA, TN, WA, WV, WI

Lean McCain--136 (six to ten points): AL, CO, KS, KY, LA, MS, NV, NH, NC, OK, SC, TX, VA

Solid McCain--65 (eleven or more points): AK, AZ, GA, ID, IN, MT, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY

[...]

Solid Obama--163 (eleven or more points): CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, NY, RI, VT, WA, WI

Lean Obama--66 (six to ten points): CO, DE, MA, MN, NM, OH, OR

Toss-up--186: (five points or less): AK, FL, MI, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NC, ND, PA, TX, VA

Lean McCain--25 (six to ten points): IN, MO, MT

Solid McCain--98 (eleven or more points): AL, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KY, LA, MS, OK, TN, UT, WV, WY

Despite seemingly similarity in their performance against McCain, this breakdown shows real differences between Obama and Clinton in the general election. Against Obama, McCain's "solid" and "lean" states only add up to 123, while Obama's add up to 229. In a matchup against Clinton, the "solid" and "lean" states are of equal size: 201 for McCain, and 203 for Clinton. In other words, while McCain and Clinton appear evenly matched, McCain is only able to keep it close against Obama by running up a series of narrow wins in the toss-up states.

Excellent point. Obama does expand the map (what Mark Warner used to claim he'd be able to do as a "map changer"), and puts more pressure across the board on McCain.

Incidentally, people are incredulous about McCain's strength in Washington. Well, Rasmussen confirms it'll be a fierce battleground:

Rasmussen. 2/28. Likely voters. MoE 4.5%

Obama 44 McCain 45

Clinton 40 McCain 48

Can't take anything for granted.

Do we have anybody running against Greg Oops I Forgot I was NRCC Audit Chair Walden? Thanks for any info you can provide.

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/03/todays_must_read_290.php

where are the coattails if nobody is running against Oops-I-Forgot-I'm-NRCC-Audit-Chair Walden?

For Obama, the next 6 weeks, or shorter, will be a true test of his ability to get elected in the general. Instead of just mouthing "yes we can", he's got to be quicker on his feet, something so far neither he, nor his campaign, have been able to do.

backbeat, we'll probably get Carol Voisin again running v.s. Walden in the 2nd CD. No offense to her, but can't we get someone a leeeeetle more exciting? We'll need it to take this seat.

Breaking- Keith Olberman of MSNBC this evening exposed the real NAFTA Gate story. It was the Clinton camp who called the Canadian Govt. Howard Fineman says, " It is a 180 degrees story." So.. turns out the Clintons did the deed and arranged to have the Canadians plant the story on Obama and they won Ohio as a result. Should we be surprised??

Here's the video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOLEK2lr3CM

I'm supporting Obama, but I can't see how McCain wins in Washington and Oregon against any Democrat. This is a very blue part of the country and if Kerry could pull it off in 2004, so can Hillary this year.

After losing two close elections, Democrats are getting too damn neurotic. Relax. If the party doesn't totally implode and we run a halfway decent general campaign, we'll beat McCain. It could even be a landslide. I mean, McCain is about as close to the re-incarnation of Barry Goldwater as you can get. Admirable guy, but too many screws loose to let him get control over our military.

Interesting maps. I like how Obama has a bigger cross section of the country. Hillary's win is because of a solid showing in the Northeast.

Hillary wins because they project she takes Florida. I find that doubtful, both because I have relatives down there and know the state, and because neither Gore or Kerry took Florida. In fact the state is now at least as red as it was, and perhaps even redder. There is a huge retired and active-duty in the state, and all evidence suggests Hillary will pull even a smaller percentage of those votes than Gore or Kerry (both served in the military).

I agree about McCain's vulnerabilities. The MSM has painted McCain as the "maverick" moderate of the Straight Talk Express, when he is anything but. The fall campaign will successfully frame him as the heir to George W. Bush who continues his policies of endless war, endless debt, and privatizing social security. That said, it doesn't help when Hillary publicly endorses McCain over Obama, and has a strategy to destroy the Dem. party by winning the nomination with super delegates. If she can win it the honest way by taking the remaining contests by 65%, getting the majority of pledged delegates, then fine. Otherwise the Dem. party is dead, and not just for this election cycle.

Hillary is obviously very vulnerable to an Ohio 2004 or Florida 2000 repeat.

I should also point out that I would expect Obama to carry some southern states, at least South Carolina and Georgia, on top of what this is projecting.

Up to now, I've been willing to cut Hillary some slack on her campaign tactics, but when she praised McCain's experience and "readiness to become commander in chief" several times in the past few days, I decided she's pulling a Lieberman. Why hasn't Obama jumped on these statements? He seems to fight back a bit quicker than Kerry, but that's not saying much.

I'm supporting Obama, but I can't see how McCain wins in Washington and Oregon against any Democrat. This is a very blue part of the country and if Kerry could pull it off in 2004, so can Hillary this year.

I have to disagree with that. It's only really like that in the Greater Puget Sound area for WA...once you leave that area it becomes increasingly moderate and Republican-friendly land (and of course STRONGLY Republican in the East). But, in much of the state, there are large amounts of independents (like me actually here in Seattle). They voted for Bill Clinton in the 90s but gave the majority of the US house seats to Republicans in '94. Right now they're friendly to Democrats and the polls suggest they like Obama well enough in comparison to McCain. But, if Clinton is on the ticket...then McCain as of now (which says nothing about November of course) would be competitive here. He still appeals to the many independent voters enough to cause problems for Clinton here potentially. I'm an Obama supporter as well and know from attending my caucus last month that Obama can definitely turn out the the vote in ways Clinton just can't.

<h2>WA and OR aren't really Democratic strongholds like in my opinion. They've just trended Democratic in the Presidential elections enough recently to appear safe.</h2>