Tomorrow's news today. Maybe.
Kari Chisholm
Last month, I organized another edition of my Punditology Challenge - and 563 activists, bloggers, lobbyists, consultants, electeds, and regular folks participated.
As usual, our collective wisdom was more correct than almost any individual; this time, better than 96% of the punditologists. In other words, all-of-us are smarter than (almost) any one of us.
As a group, we correctly predicted that Huckabee would win Iowa, that Clinton and McCain would win New Hampshire, that Romney would win Michigan, that Clinton would win Nevada, and that Obama would win South Carolina.
We were wrong about Edwards in Iowa, McCain in Nevada, Huckabee in South Carolina, and Giuliani in Florida. (Remember, all these picks were made before January 2nd - before Iowa.)
Incidentally, BlueOregon alumnus Jonathan Singer - now a front-page blogger at MyDD - was the top punditologist. Second place went to Jean Lloyd-Jones, the 1992 Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate in Iowa. Out of 563 punditologists, only the two of them correctly picked the winner of every single primary and caucus. (The top 54 punditologists are listed here.)
Looking ahead, I've just closed the Super Tuesday round of the Punditology Challenge with 231 participants.
While 59% say they support Obama, 56% believe that Hillary Clinton will exit Super Tuesday with a narrow win (less than 1000 total pledged delegates). Another 8% think she'll win big.
64% think John McCain will win big (with more than 700 total pledged delegates), and another 32% think he'll win narrowly. 91% think Mitt Romney will be in second place.
Which states did the punditologists think would land with either Clinton or Obama?
| Clinton New York 96% New Jersey 84% Arkansas 82% Delaware 73% Arizona 73% Oklahoma 70% Utah 70% Alaska 61% Connecticut 61% North Dakota 60% California 60% New Mexico 57% Missouri 55% Idaho 52% | Obama Illinois 97% Georgia 90% Alabama 79% Colorado 62% Kansas 59% American Samoa 57% Massachusetts 53% Tennessee 52% Minnesota 51% |
For the GOP, at least 60% of the punditologists think McCain is going to win every state - except Arkansas (59% say Huckabee), Utah (83% say Romney), and Massachusetts (69% say Romney.)
See the nitty-gritty details of all the picks here.
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Feb 4, '08
This list is going to look pretty foolish tomorrow. If very latest polling is correct, then California, Conn., Missouri, Utah are in the Obama column. And Delaware is likely Obama win, last polling has it dead even, New Jersey is a toss-up. North Dakota,Idaho, Alaska are good bets also. ( I don't think they've been polled lately, but red state Dems seem to prefer Obama). I think people picked on CW and not on the trends and underrated the growing strength of Obama. I think it will be a good night for Obama.
Feb 4, '08
We can safely move Idaho, Utah, Alaska, and probably North Dakota safely over to Obama's column.
All eyes will be on New Jersey and California as polls show Obama closing strong there and many other places on the list they have for Clinton.
Feb 4, '08
The pundits must be saying that the Oklahoma Democratic sheriff good ol' boy network still writes in the primary winners. Casual man on the street survey has Obama over the Hill. 4:1. Word on the street is also that the fix is in with the machine, she's paid up.
Dems that want recounts based on exit polling discrepancies don't have to nag Florida and the Republicans.
Feb 4, '08
Another in the Obama column:
"A new poll of New Mexico Democrats – the first conducted since Bill Richardson left the presidential race – has Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton by six points."
Feb 4, '08
Well, Hillary's people are already talking about the race going to the convention.
The good news is, the race will still be in play by the time that Oregon gets to have its say in the primary.
The bad news is, it won't matter, because it will still be decided by conventional politics... super delegates, John Edwards' delegates, etc.
We'll know a lot more very soon, but this is an intriguing concept if things look extremely close after tomorrow.
Hmm... what do you guys think about the race being decided post-primary, at the convention?
Feb 4, '08