Let me just say this today:

GO OBAMA!!!

Have a great Super Tuesday everyone! Best of luck to both of the Dem campaigns.

Yeah, happy Super Fat Tuesday. :-)

As an Oregonian reporting from the San Francisco Bay Area today, I've got a rather unique perspective to offer. My day started off by hearing Senator Obama on the KFOG morning show (interview is archived here: http://media.kfog.com/kfog/barack_ms0208.mp3)... and finding out that all of the surviving members of the Grateful Dead turned out last night to do a benefit concert for him!

So, first the entire Kennedy clan (including California's first lady, the wife of the guvernator) -- then the Dead?

What's next, the Dead Kennedys?

(bad-dum-bum)

I've been asking everyone I talk to how they voted, or intend to vote. It seems to be about nine-to-one in favor of Obama.... now, that's of course a very slanted sample, but even a few weeks ago, a lot of people were on the fence. Now, they've decided... and some of them have been huge surprises to me!

Personally -- I'm an Oregonian, I don't until June. Not my horse race today.

But I do think it's interesting how much momentum Obama is picking up.

It reminds me of the time that Bill Clinton and Al Gore came to Portland for a rally in Pioneer Courthouse Square. I was in school then, and a bunch of us got excused from class to go down and check out the rally (hey, we were MLC'ers). It was the biggest... celebration... that I'd ever been a part of. People were so exuberant to have the opportunity to shake the hands of either of those great men! They were absolutely ecstatic about them coming to Portland, and appearing for free in Pioneer Square for everybody to meet & hear them! Especially after twelve years of Reagan/Bush (this must have been in 92...), it was so cathartic.

Maybe Obama has the charisma to bring about times like those again -- times of optimism and hope for the future, under a responsible new president who really inspires people to believe that he will make a change for the better. And maybe that's more important than Clinton's much-vaunted foreign policy and domestic policy skills. I don't know, but I do know that I'm very excited to find out what the result are of today!

It is important to separate the leadership of the Christan Right from the rank and file. McCain does okay with evangelical voters; exit polls show him getting about the same as Romney and almost as much as Huckabee. It is the leadership that does not like him. That is fairly understandable. In 2000, McCain spoke out against the Christian Right ("agents of intolerance"). Also, remember that groups like Focus on the Family are special interest groups, so they were not happy about campaign finance reform.

Kari, I think McCain has flip-flopped on abortion several times, and of course, the Republicans don't like his stance on immigration and the fact that he worked with Ted Kennedy on an immigration bill. Maybe there are other things too.

Go, Obama! I think he will end up at least even with Clinton in the number of of states won and maybe even surpass her.

The way things are shaping up:

Obama: Ill., Georgia, Al, Conn., Del, Minn., KS, ND, ID,

Clinton: NY, NJ, Tenn., Ark, MO, Mass, OK

Likely Obama based on exit polling: Utah, NM,

Toss-up, CA

For me biggest disappointments are MO and Mass. The rest I predicted. They haven't been called by all the nets yet, early returns still.

Anybody else notice that, Iowa aside, Obama does best in red states, and he does best in the red parts of states? Take this to mean what you will.

They hate Clinton in red and purple states, in the Midwest, and in the West, including Oregon.( I predict an Obama win in WA on Sat.) Obama is beating Clinton big time in most of the Western and Mid-west states. My list up above.. just one update. I forgot to mention CO in the Obama column. He is leading big there. AZ looks for Clinton right now.

Go Hillary!

I'm a registered Republican voting for Obama (when he wins the primary running for president that is of course).

Take it as it is, Republicans are coming out in droves for this guy, as myself and many of my right wing friends are fans of his.

So you Dem Obama supporters, quit knocking on us Republicans haha, we will single handily lift Obama over the top to win the presidency.

haha "roger?" Methinks you may be a dem obama supporter, no? hmm

Some of the networks called Missouri for Clinton. With 2% remaining to count, Obama now leads 49%-48%. Ah these pros...

I just cruised the California SOS web site, which is posting the election results. About half the congressional districts have not had any votes tallied. In all of the others, Clinton is leading Obama, often by huge margins. Looks like she's not only going to win California, but since it is winner-take-all in each district, she might come out with a very dominant victory.

Which is damned hard to understand, except for the Latino vote. It may be that the election results are too incomplete, but typically when you get over 10% of the precincts reporting in a district, you can tell who's going to win. It's unlikely all the uncounted districts are going to break for Obama.

I think this was a big night for Obama, Clinton winning California was a lifeboat for her, with Alaska and Missouri in Obama has now won 13 of 22 contests. Clinton's going to lead in the delegate count, but I really think Obama kept this close enough and performed impressively enough to take a lot of momentum into Washington, DC, and Maryland where he's likely to do well anyway. Furthermore, the longer this lasts the better Obama seems to do.

The early vote tallies are the absentees. So I think you are counting your chickens before they're hatched. The absentee vote is what seems to have put Hillary over the top.

They ain't my chickens. I'm an Obama supporter. But the latest look at the California congressional district tallies shows Clinton leading in 50 of the 53 districts. The percentage of precincts reporting ranges from 4% to 25%. I doubt it absentee ballots account for more than 2-3%. If this trend continues, Clinton could score 90% of the state's delegates. I hope I'm wrong.

A correction to somebody’s post above: California is not a winner take all by district for the Democrats; every district is proportional. Most districts have an even number of delegates, so unless a candidate gets just over 61%, they will not pick up more than half the delegates in that district. With that kind of math, it will be hard for Clinton to get a huge boost out of California. The same holds true for just about every state.

Additionally, it is highly unlikely that the absentee ballots made a difference. Absentee voting is fundamentally similar to vote by mail, particularly in a state like California that is “no questions asked” absentee. Those who vote early are overwhelmingly those who are most committed and informed. These are the hardcore supporters of a candidate, not the swing voters who decide an election. Those who were undecided did not vote early (via absentee) because they could not make up their mind. Undecided voters will vote closer to, or on, election day.

The thing to look at is the upcoming elections. The rest of the month heavily favors Obama, but early March is Ohio and Texas, which are probably favorable to Clinton. With this kind of break down, Pennsylvania in late March may be the place to decide this.

Great night for Senator Obama.

When are people going to stop being suprised by his performance? 13 of the 22 States, not too shabby.

And now on to Washington, Maryland, Virginia, DC... Where he will do extremely well.

Gil, I think the winner take all by district in California is only true on the Republican side.

Yup, I was totally wrong on the allocation of delegates in the California primary. But it is a bizarre system. This link explains it pretty well:

http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2/4/15253/20815/322/449186

This seems to me ( in both parties ) to show that the old slogan "money is all that matters and only professionals know how the game is played" is not true--if it ever was.

Apparently the early Clinton strategy of asking donors "please give the maximum in one contribution now and don't even look at any other candidates!" has backfired because now all her loyal donors are maxed out, while Obama got a lot of smaller donations so he can go back to those people and ask for another donation, and apparently he's been getting more donations recently than she has.

I'm glad it is Feb. 5 and this is still not decided. A lesson in humility to pundits and anyone else in the last several months who said, "Well, we know this will be over by Feb. 5 and then..."

I would not say that Obama is the frontrunner. Clinton still wins states by default, so Obama still has a lot of ground to make up. The rest of the month seems to favor Obama, but it gets better for Clinton after that.

Saturday should favor Obama in Louisiana, Nebraska, and Washington, but Clinton in the Virgin Islands. Sunday is the Maine Caucus, which probably favors Clinton. Next week is the Chesapeake showcase, which probably helps Obama, same with Hawaii and Wisconsin the week after that. However, March seems like it is good for Clinton. That first week of March has Ohio and Texas, which both probably favor Clinton, along with Vermont and Rhode Island. The former is probably good for Obama, but the later is probably going to go for Clinton. After that, the next big race is Pennsylvania on April 22. Given the breakdown for the next two months, it seems like Pennsylvania is going to be somebody’s last stand.

OK. THIS IS AMAZING!

I'm pulling for Obama and I think he has what it takes to win. But what I saw tonight was a party that can't pick between two really good candidates.

Who the hell would have thought that Oregon would have mattered in the Democratic primary but after tonight there is a real possibility (like a 10% chance) Oregon could play a major role in this election.

So I say "Yeah Oregon!"

Now I have to go back to looking at polls for Nebraska, Washington, and Louisiana.

Not to put too fine a point on this but Obama has all the "gravitas" of a six-foot vertical piece of beef jerky.

I predict he'll be "smoked" in the later primaries.

Though I may "eschew" the thought, every time I eat jerky, I'll think of him.

i got 873 for obama (conservatively) 878 for clinton. i dont know how to score michigan (what a rip) nor superdelegates.

where do get this "smoked" nonsense?? run these parallels though your brainwaves -

minnesota/illinoise/missouri/iowa/kentucky ==>> indiana/ohio/pennsylvania/north carolina/wisconsin (or are you counting on anti-obama support from michigan??

texas==>> rural, anti-establishment don't matter some may hate you know whats- whats their choice? stay home? vote for a skank?? texas will vote a combination of georgia/alabama/kansas

btw i think oklahoma/tennessee need to be including with arkansas in studies migrating inbreeds - they are the only thorns in my geopolitical projection for obama

so if i figure the kari article correctly that gives another 225 superdelegates for total of 1098 to obama, 1217 to the lesser clinton. without the skew of the delegates toward <democratic states=""> obama would already be ahead.

im not at all politically savvy, but i just can't see at all how clinton wins texas or ohio? much less north carolina,indiana, pennsylvania or wisconsin. its almost a parallel of a typical national election in this case ms clinton is the liberal democrat. color the states up. on the map obama's territory covers a much larger area.

we could be looking at a behind closed doors establishment liberal revenge of their percieved bush/gore injustices. nobody will say it but in fact(lol) the democrat heirarchy knows clinton to be more electable than obama because the majority of minorities(racist asian and latinos) won't support him (mccain could seriously take california.). i'm really conservative ( un-like my educated lawyer cousin who posts here), and as such i find it a worse thing to vote for mccain than obama. at least if obama is elected i can rationalize that it gives alan keyes a much better chance someday.he's against washington lobbyists also, ought to make a hell of a vice pres. in fact he alone i think could fix all of johnson's useless legacy.

I see conflicting tallies on who has the most delegate votes, Clinton or Obama, but either way, it must be a close difference. Some pundits are predicting a Democratic nightmare in Colorado this summer, but I don't see it. I think Obama did better than expected yesterday, and I think he is in good shape from here on out. The only state that I still see having a significant Mexican vote is Texas, but correct me if I'm wrong.

State of the Race post Super-Tues. From the CNN talking heads, and I think they nail it pretty good, not that I usually agree with them. Obama has the money, he's got the Mo, he can win this thing the longer it goes. He has a contributor base of close to half a million and growing:

<hr/>

But Obama won more states, 13, and leads Clinton in pledged delegates, according to CNN calculations. Obama also counted Missouri, a national bellwether state, among his victories, and the Illinois Democrat has been on a fundraising tear. In January, he raised $32 million, his campaign reported.

"Heading into the next states ... Barack Obama has a money advantage," Borger said. "And now Hillary Clinton wants to debate every single week because she doesn't have the money to compete with him for paid media. I think we'll be seeing a lot more Obama and Hillary Clinton one-on-one."

The Democratic campaigns now turn their attention to the Louisiana primary and Nebraska and Washington caucuses Saturday, the Maine caucuses Sunday and the so-called Potomac primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia next Tuesday.

The candidates also have circled February 19 when Wisconsin holds its primary, March 4 when voters in Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont head to the polls, and April 22 in Pennsylvania.

While failing to win the biggest prizes of California and New York, Obama should see many positive trends in the Super Tuesday results as he battles Clinton, the presumptive nominee a few months ago.

"On the Democratic side, my sense is we're going into two, three weeks now which will probably favor Obama," Gergen said. advertisement

"There is a sense the longer this goes on, the more it favors the challenger, the more it favors Barack Obama," he said.

i ve made a terrible miscalculation of super delegates . i thought they were the 35% or so that kari's article listed as going in a block vote to the popular vote leader from each state. 873 obama 878 clinton is what i figure the overall delegate count(up to feb 6) will be (not including superdelegates) after the finish counting/reporting delegate - maybe by next monday??

A general trend I noticed (and please correct me if I'm wrong)

Obama wins caucus states. He won Iowa, Nevada, Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, North Dakota, and (at this writing) leads in New Mexico.

He also wins primary states with large black populations: South Carolina (29% black), Georgia (30% black), Alabama (26% black), Delaware (20% black).

Clinton wins primary states with smaller numbers of black voters (fewer than 20%). She won New Hampshire, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Arizona, California, plus her home state of New York and the uncontested primaries in Michigan and Florida.

Exceptions: Obama won primaries in his home state of Illinois, Connecticut (9% black), and squeaked out a victory in Missouri (11% black). He also rather strikingly won Utah (1% black). According to Yahoo Scoreboard, only 8% of the population are registered Democrats and 53% are independent. If Utah has an open primary, that bodes well for Obama's performance among independent voters.

Anyway, if that general trend holds, Obama should do well this weekend: three caucus states (Washington, Nebraska and Maine) plus a primary in Lousiana (31% black). Next Tuesday is a regional primary of sorts: Maryland (29% black), Virginia (20% black), and Washington DC (55% black). On February 19 there's a caucus in Hawaii. I see Obama picking up "momentum" with a series of wins and a delegate lead.

However, advantage then turns to Clinton: February 19 primary in Wisconsin, and then March 4 primaries in Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont. There's also a hybrid primary-caucus in Texas, and I won't even try to guess who would have the advantage there. But if Obama can pull off maybe one or two victories (and he HAS won a few primaries in states with small black populations) and keep up strong showings in the other states -- particularly in delegate-rich Ohio and Texas -- I expect he finishes March with a delegate lead: the two remaining March events are the Wyoming caucus and the Mississippi primary.

After that, there's a six week break between elections, and both campaigns go all out for the eight remaining states and Puerto Rico. I think at that point Oregon becomes very relevant. The big prize is Pennsylvania (151 delegates). With the exception of North Carolina, the remaining states have black populations under 20%.

If he doesn't fall on his face, I'd say Obama has a really good chance to win this one.

California and New York are not going to win it for the Democrats in spite of what the NY and CA media would have you think. (Actually, I am glad. I like to think that the rest of us count for something too.) Barack Obama is showing that he is doing well across the board, picking up red states like Kansas and some of the western states. He stands a chance of picking up some Southern red states too for the Democrats for the first time in god-knows-when. Clinton has shown she cannot pick them up in a Democratic party primary which is a prognosis of how she will do against a Republican in the South. Where Obama won yesterday, he quite often won on a two to one margin. Where Clinton won, not so. Obama is better placed to win the general election, not Clinton, but we'd better be prepared for a rough ride of dirty politics from here on out.

SAVE DEMOCRACY, VOTE FOR A DEMOCRAT!!

I'll tell you what I did this morning first thing.

I logged onto the California SOS site and tallied the voters whom came out to the primary, simply put the "likely voters poll" that is really accurate. I cared not so much about whom voted for whom in the primary because it matter less to me than which party.

3,966,777 lovely devoted Democratic Voters in California! 2,251,236 tired Grand Old Party Voters in California. (1,715,541) differance between the parties!!

The Republican faithfull, and in California these Republicans vote, unlike in many states the Republicans vote because they know they are the minority, the RICH minority. It's the Democrats that were apathetic for the past 10 years, and after the recall election for govenor. We can now say definitively that the Democrats of California are going to the polls, and bringing their little buddies with them!

56.75% of the Democratic Vote is a miserable showing for the Republicans, and if America hasn't seen through the bullsh-- of the Republicans the past 7yrs, they sure do now.

I'm going to jump out on this fat limb to say that a lifetime of political fan, similar I must admit to my devotion to baseball, leads this amateur pundit to predict a LANDSLIDE OF HISTORICAL PROPORTIONS!!!!!!!

This will not be a celebration of Democrats, admittably, but if your priorities are in some measure in line with mine, you'll sound off to this posting's title.

I believe a Clinton/Obama ticket would produce a landslide victory that will dwarf any margin of victory in American history. This will make the '94 "Contract for America" look insignificant.

This election cycle has proven that we have never seen anything like this, a revolution of American Citizens activated into service to their country.

I DARE THE REPUBLICAN NATIONAL PARTY AND THIS ADMINISTRATION TO PLAY THE DIRTY TRICKS ON VOTERS OF THE 2000 & 2004 ELECTIONS!!! I DARE THEM!!! If they do, we may not see another Republican President for decades.

I believe that this will be the last election that will be paid for under McCain/Feingold and that a model like Arizona will finally emerge come 2010!

Happy Thoughts;

Dan Grady

I just got an email from my uncle in Kansas, and I'm going to relay the pertinent details, because I think it's a bellwether. For 35 years him and his wife have been in a mixed marriage -- she a Democrat, him a Republican. This year, in Kansas the state legislature did not want to approve the $2 million necessary to have a primary election, so the Democrats paid to have a caucus instead. And he went out and switched parties, so he could caucus with the Democrats! He voted for Obama, enthusiastically, and braving a snow storm to go out and do so. He says there was a line around the block to get into the polling place, and he was sure some people had to have been turned away due to too much demand.

I think that says huge things about the paradigm shift in American politics this year, and about Obama's campaign in particular. I don't think that he's alone. Moderate Republicans are leaving the party in droves, and they're going for Obama because they still dislike the Clintons.

Obama and Ted Kennedy - way of change :) Obama wants power like anybody elese. He is not good for America.

Hi everybody, I'm new! How are you?

<hr/>

Restaurante en Panama

SAVE DEMOCRACY, VOTE FOR A DEMOCRAT!!

Ok, warm fuzzy hello's are way of subject!

Let's be more combative please, and I'm doing fine, thank you for asking.

Happy Thoughts;

Dan Grady

P.S. Restuarante en Panama? I love Panama City, loved the warm, soft ladies to be sure. A Squid's dream liberty.

well its closing in on monday - results not finished. now i see exactly what the super delegates are. i also see that i was counting them in the tallies of pledged delegates - the ones that had already made their vote public enough so that cnn also counted it- thats where i got the wrong numbers from. here are the more correct ( +or- 2 delegates):

barrack obama : 909 hilary clinton : 895

these are the delegates tied to the primary/caucus (pledged). this is a very accurate prediction - although it most likely won't be reached before dubious information from other caucus results will be added (by media) to the "official(read media(strongclintonbias) approved)" scoreboard. it'll happen like this (new delegate totals being added the incomplete previous totals) i believe for the obvious reason that i believe i can smell and see through typical media bias rather well- and its clearly pro clinton.

here is raw data as of 30minutes before this post as reported on cnn website.

Obama won% states with still incomplete delegate tallies-

Alabama 56% 11 delegates Colorado 67% 36 delegates Georgia 67% 27 delegates Illinois 65% 17 delegates

a total of 91 delegates from significant obama win states have not yet been tallied.

compared to -

Arizona 51% (11) California 52% (23) Massachusetts 56% (2) New York 57% (1) New Mexico** 49% (1) Tennessee 54% (4)

a total of 42 from less % win states for clinton

suspicious??? (please someone argue my belief of a serious ly not only biased but manipulated reporting of news).

I can only see the the reason for THESE SPECIFIC delegate tabulations (or as the media refers to (less and less until the are forgotten) as "difficult mathematic calculations slowing the counting process") being slow as
intentionally not reported to take some of Obama's otherwise perceived momentum away.

Look at as I do and tell me if I'm off base-

Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois- not finished because 90% of the potential delegate swing (between reported and unreported) is contained here - +27 as i figure for obama.

Arizona, California - semi "big" win clinton states not finished to obstruct argument that the tallies were biased -however closer look shows they could only generate maybe a +4 or +5 clinton delegates.

Massachusets, New York - same reason but stronger since they are large stake states, not out out west (where the difficult mathematic calculations may need the extra 3 hrs (as already reported countless times), and have already be en depleted of possible "delegate swing" other than +1 (although it will be intersting to see whose "1" they really are).

New Mexico - well why not the vote isn't even completely in yet - might swing to bush (oops-Obama) this time as it should have(or did it? - I forgot) last time.

Tennessee- could be the lone precinct to have a 4 delegate
value (and possible 4-0 swing) and be populated with migrated clinton inbreeds.

i'm also abandoning my prediction that clinton will win the democratic nomination in a behind the scenes convention power play. even though the media coverage(99% democrat) would be enormous - it seems more realistic that the democrats and media will really be trying for a winner this time and the Obama story of overcoming a strong contender for the nomination will/may influence the presidential contest more favorably for them. Besides, have we really sunk that low on the social scale as a society to have the clintons go down in the history book as the married couple that achieved the presidency individually while permitting the receiving of blow jobs
(and what else in store?)in the white house?

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