Heh, nicely said.

Can we grow 'em in Oregon or what?

"Grow 'em" is an interesting choice of words, considering that the guy is 4'9" ... but I take your point!

%^>

Speaking of this line...

What little polling has been done in the Democratic race showed the two candidates were virtually tied as of last month. Most people surveyed said they were undecided.

Can someone provide a link to that polling? Not likely, since it doesn't exist.

Sorry, Brad Cain, but there's been zero independent polling that has an actual head-to-head between the two candidates. (And no, Riley doesn't count. He's been paid by the Independent Party in service of the Frohnmayer candidacy.)

Polls that show hypothetical matchups with Gordon Smith are irrelevant - since only one matchup will come true after one candidate wins the primary, and that election will happen over five months and millions of dollars later.

C'mon, Brad, you're the Associated Press -- why don't you commission a head-to-head poll?

Maybe Merkley is ahead, maybe Novick is ahead, maybe they're "virtually" tied.... but there's no evidence on the public record that suggests any of those conclusions.

[Full disclosure: I built Jeff Merkley's campaign website, but I speak here only for myself.]

Sorry, Brad Cain, but there's been zero independent polling that has an actual head-to-head between the two candidates. (And no, Riley doesn't count. He's been paid by the Independent Party in service of the Frohnmayer candidacy.)

Kari, don't be stupid. Frohnmayer is not paying for a poll that doesn't even INCLUDE him!

You guys are going to burst a blood vessel with all that stressful denial. How many polls would you like to see the pattern repeated in before you quit finding reasons to discount them, I wonder?

So the New York Times has now run more positive stories on Novick during the campaign than you, haven't they? :)

Hmmmm, TJ, sounds like you forgot about the poll that DID include Frohnmayer and WAS paid for by the Independent Party of Oregon. Details on their website.

As for coverage of the Novick campaign, here's all the headlines that included the word "Novick" from April 18 (the day he announced) to January 31.

I think a quick scan will indicate that nearly all of it has been positive.

18-Apr-07 open discussion He's in: Steve Novick takes on Gordon Smith. 19-Apr-07 elsewhere MyDD interview with Steve Novick 19-Apr-07 in the news Steve Novick: "fire-breathing populist" 23-Apr-07 in the news R-G: Don't dismiss Steve Novick 15-May-07 elsewhere Steve Novick, Howard Dean, and the Iowa Caucus 28-May-07 Randy Leonard Why I am supporting Steve Novick 4-Jun-07 elsewhere Novick announces first $100,000 2-Jul-07 in the news Novick hits $190,000; adds campaign staff 17-Jul-07 elsewhere Novick on the Trail 22-Jul-07 guest column Steve Novick: a nontraditional candidate with an edge 25-Jul-07 in the news WW names Novick "best activist"; campaign releases poll 1-Aug-07 in the news Novick Calls for Debates; Merkley Welcomes Them 7-Aug-07 in the news Novick in the Portland Tribune 26-Aug-07 in the news Republicans, Novick press attack on Merkley 27-Aug-07 guest column Steve Novick, the "Attack on Merkley," and "the Courage of President George W. Bush" 31-Aug-07 in the news Novick visits Eastern Oregon to make his case 2-Sep-07 notable comment Novick & Merkley: two great choices 3-Sep-07 in the news Tom Chamberlain on Merkley and Novick 3-Sep-07 elsewhere Novick: Unions Need Our Help So They Can Keep Helping the Rest of Us 5-Sep-07 elsewhere Novick Endorses Sanders/Boxer Bill 18-Sep-07 in the news Novick Calls for Impeachment 4-Oct-07 Jeff Alworth Novick, Merkley, and the DSCC 5-Oct-07 in the news Steve Novick on Outlook Portland 10-Oct-07 open discussion Merkley and Novick at the DPO Summit 10-Oct-07 in the news Novick on Outlook Portland 15-Oct-07 elsewhere Beaver Boundary: Novick and Taxes 25-Oct-07 in the news Novick Receives 1,000 Online Contributions 25-Oct-07 Nick Wirth Steve Novick at Lewis and Clark College 29-Oct-07 in the news Novick: Reject torture, reject Mukasey 31-Oct-07 Leslie Carlson Novick tackles global warming head-on 3-Nov-07 Kristin Teigen Novick’s Big Health Care Picture 11-Nov-07 Charlie Burr Why I support Novick 29-Nov-07 in the news Merkley and Novick Interviewed in Street Roots 3-Dec-07 in the news Les AuCoin endorses Steve Novick 29-Dec-07 in the news Good press for Novick 8-Jan-08 in the news Merkley & Novick release education plans 14-Jan-08 open discussion Novick's first ad 16-Jan-08 elsewhere Could Steve Novick's height cost him the election? 18-Jan-08 Kari Chisholm Fake endorsement backfires on Novick campaign operative 20-Jan-08 Kari Chisholm On Saturday night, Liz Kimmerly continues to pretend she doesn't work for Novick 22-Jan-08 Kari Chisholm Even Novick's supporters are worried about the Kimmerly fake-endorsement debacle 28-Jan-08 open discussion A beer with Steve Novick 31-Jan-08 in the news Fox News: Steve Novick is a "very awesome dude".

"Hmmmm, TJ, sounds like you forgot about the poll that DID include Frohnmayer and WAS paid for by the Independent Party of Oregon. Details on their website."

No, I didn't forget, which is why I specifically referred to the poll that included Novick vs Merkley. Just because Frohnmayer was a client on another Riley poll has nothing whatsoever to do with this one.

And I also was talking about Kari Chisholm the blogger, not Blue Oregon. You'll notice there are only three on Novick at all--all regarding the hack swiftboating job you had to apologize for.

I didn't apologize for my posts. I stand by every word of my posts regarding the PDA/Kimmerly mess. (But please, let's not waste everyone else's time by re-arguing it all. It's all on the record on those posts.)

As for Riley... Once you lose your virginity, it's gone.

During this election cycle, Riley has been a paid pollster to one of the Senate campaigns. Which is just fine, but my point remains: There have been zero independent head-to-head polls published in the Senate race.

Maybe Novick is winning. Maybe Merkley is winning. Maybe it's tied. But there's no independent data on the record.

What's all this concern about polls? Everyone knows who's going to win the Senate primary. It will be the candidage with the most experience, the one with the traditional, conventional approach to politics, the candidate who has the most establishment support and the support of the big donors and interest groups, the person who has been the inevitable winner from the beginning of the race: Hillary Merkley . . . I mean, Jeff Merkley!

Jake, there's no reason to re-hash the whole Kimmerly/PDA mess. Enough pixels have given their lives for that discussion. As I said, I stand behind every word I wrote there.

Daniel Spiro wrote: What pissed me off was all the subtle and not-so-subtle shots that Kari and others who support Merkely here have taken against Novick

Daniel... I haven't taken a single shot at Steve Novick. I was pretty hard on one of his staffers, but I explicitly said then that I didn't Steve could possibly condone the behavior.

I've certainly argued with plenty of Novick supporters about silly arguments they've made, but I think you'll be hard pressed to find either a subtle or not-so-subtle shot at Steve Novick from me.

As I've said many times, Steve Novick is a good friend and a good progressive. I just support the other guy.

After the national president of the organization specifically came over here to refute your falsehoods?

You are attempted to obfuscate by substituting a red herring for the relevant facts.

Fact: Liz Kimmerly was a paid senior staffer on the Novick campaign when this Portland PDA chapter was started.

Fact: Contrary to the clear guidelines published on the national PDA website, the Portland PDA chapter cut straight to the endorsement process, led by Liz Kimmerly and which her boss was a candidate for.

Fact: At the initial meeting of this Portland PDA chapter neither Liz Kimmerly nor Steve Novick, who was present, as was I, disclosed the fact that Liz works for Steve.

Fact: Everyone else who formally addressed the chapter meeting, including Moses Ross, fully disclosed current and past political affiliations.

Fact: When bluntly asked by an attendee of said chapter meeting, "who are you?" Liz Kimmerly again declined to practice full disclosure - a clear lie by omission - and Steve Novick casually watched and kept his mouth shut.

Fact: When Steve Novick formally addressed the chapter meeting audience he declined to disclose his political relationship with Liz Kimmerly.

Fact: There are multiple witnesses who can verify the truth of the preceeding facts.

No, really. Let's not slaughter any more innocent pixels in arguing this one. My god, there were hundreds of comments over there. We don't need more of them.

Give it up guys. Kari said it best himself:

As for Riley Kari... Once you lose your virginity, it's gone.

During this election cycle, Riley Kari has been a paid pollster online media consultant to one of the Senate campaigns. Which is just fine, but my point remains: There have been zero independent head-to-head polls posts or comments published [by Kari] in the Senate race.

Even if he won't accept it, we should all be used to it by now. He is not, and never will be, even mildly objective in this race (or the AG race for that matter). Then again, neither are most of us. There's nothing wrong with that! I will admit that his attempts to maintain an air of objectivity are a bit tired and grating at times, but just get over it already. The constant accusations of bias that everyone who follows these discussions already knows about is even more tired and just derails the conversation.

[I don't even have a horse in this race and probably won't decide until the day I mail my ballot, but my god am I getting sick of all the sniping.]

I like Steve Novick because I see him as the kind of person who gets how interconnected all the issues we have to deal with are.

How the economy and the environment are intertwined. How ballooning health care costs are hurting the quality of the education provided by public schools. That fighting for the end of social inequality includes not only discrimination based on race/sex/gender/sexual orientation but also involves fighting poverty.

He's one of the smartest guys I've ever met, and overcoming seemingly insurmountable odds seems to be one of his favorite hobbies.

Nate, you do realize the difference between pollsters and blogs, don't you?

Its great for Noivick to get this kind of good press. The problem with all of these articles coming out now is that if Novick does win the primary, the novelty factor isn't going to generate the same kind of story in the general as its already been picked up by the Atlantic Monthly and the AP.

After the primary, we are going to need a campaign that can raise enough money to effectively mitigate the air war from Gordon Smith's war chest and efficiently build and manage a grassroots army throughout the state, not just in Portland. When your campaign manager is hanging out on BlueO, you don't give me much confidence that you can do that.

I like Steve Novick because he's smart, progressive, a great strategic thinker, and quick on his feet.

I like Steve Novick because he advocates equal access to civil marriage for all couples, including those of the same sex.

I like Steve Novick because he advocates reforms that would result in wealthier people and investors paying more of their fair share of income taxes, instead of the overburden currently borne by wage earners.

I like Steve Novick because economic and social justice are linchpins of his personal belief system as well as his campaign.

I like Steve Novick because he's interesting, funny, and charismatic.

I like Steve Novick because he's going to beat Gordon Smith.

There's more but Kari seems to be worried about wasting pixels today so I'll stop now.

Nate Currie wrote... Even if he won't accept it, we should all be used to it by now. He is not, and never will be, even mildly objective in this race...

Oh for the love of god. I AM BIASED. I keep saying it. Over and over and over. And yet, people keep (weirdly) accusing me of being biased - and insisting that I should be the only unbiased blogger in Oregon. That's ridiculous.

I've never pretended to "maintain an air of objectivity" of any sort! Seriously.

I'm a blogger. I have opinions. I share them. What's the big deal?

Just like, btw, Leslie Carlson is "biased". She supports Steve Novick - and now she's posted here to tell us about it. That's a good thing!

(Though, Leslie, I just realized that you didn't post a disclosure about your staff/consulting relationship with the Novick campaign, whatever it may be at this time.)

(Though, Leslie, I just realized that you didn't post a disclosure about your staff/consulting relationship with the Novick campaign, whatever it may be at this time.)

Oops, sorry. Full disclosure: Last year, I helped Steve briefly as a paid consultant in media relations. Now, I'm just a happy volunteer.

I can't take credit for any this great media, however! BTW, I think Steve was on Fox this AM and his ads will be featured on CNN this afternoon.

Trishka:

No not a bad thing a good thing that is ill timed for maximum impact if the goal is to beat Smith, and not beat Merkley and lose to Smith. It the meme that the Novick campaign is pushing is successful (I don't particularly think it is but thats just this voter) this kind of press is good for him in the primary especially. My point is that banking on this kind of coverage in the general is foolish as the story's out of the bag. What will matter is the campaign organization an area where Novick has not been impressive in my book.

we are going to need a campaign that can raise enough money to effectively mitigate the air war from Gordon Smith's war chest and efficiently build and manage a grassroots army throughout the state, not just in Portland.

I don't recall the East O complaining about Novick not paying attention to the areas east of Portland, do you?

How many counties has Merkley been to, physically, so far during this campaign> Is it more than 20? Get back to me.

No not a bad thing a good thing that is ill timed for maximum impact if the goal is to beat Smith, and not beat Merkley and lose to Smith.

You do realize the first is a prerequisite for the second, right? :) I'm sure glad my favorite football team doesn't rest up and not try hard for the first 10 weeks of the season--just so they can be rested and "well-timed" to make a run for the playoffs. You sound suspiciously like you're advocating a "Guiliani Strategy" (now known as a Hillary "insult 40 states" strategy).

Nate, you do realize the difference between pollsters and blogs, don't you?

No Jeff, maybe you could enlighten me...

I've never pretended to "maintain an air of objectivity" of any sort! Seriously.

Then why the huge comment trying to illustrate the positive coverage Steve has received on this site? Why not just say, "OF COURSE all of my posts and comments are pro-Merkley. That's who I'm supporting! SHEESH!"

IMost of my comment was defending your right to be biased and suggesting that people who think this is some crazy new revelation and feel the need to constantly point it out are rather annoying. The parallel I was trying to draw between the blogger and pollster (which I didn't really think was that much of a reach) is that both should be taken with a grain of salt once they've declared their support for one of the candidates they're commenting (or polling) on, something I doubt you even disagree with.

Posted by: Nate Currie | Feb 29, 2008 2:20:31 PM

Why not just say, "OF COURSE all of my posts and comments are pro-Merkley. That's who I'm supporting! SHEESH!"

I think you'd be hard pressed to find a single person not associated or supportive of either campaign who reads Blue Oregon regularly that would say that Kari has been MORE outspoken in support of Merkley than I have been. No?

Look at my first comment on this post, in fact the first comment period:

Posted by: Kevin | Feb 28, 2008 8:29:21 PM Heh, nicely said. Can we grow 'em in Oregon or what?

That's me... Kevin from Preemptive Karma! Yet you think that Kari would be more honest if he... how'd you put that... announced that "all of my posts and comments are pro-Merkley"?

And you seriously think that's gonna be taken seriously by any one not already hooked on Kool-Aid?

Really???

Torridjoe:

I only know what I see. For Example in the third largest city in Oregon (Salem) and second largest metro (also Salem) Novick has no campaign apparatus that Im aware of. While Merkley has been running phone banks for a while now. Considering Merkley is putting resources into places that isn't the big states (portland metro) he would be Obama and Novick with his metro centric strategy would be Clinton. Ive said it before but I don't think the Presidential election serves as a good comparison to the OR Sen race despite some desperate attempts to have Novick hop on the Obama bandwagon.

Nor I am I advocating for Novick to pull a Guiliani but I am warning the people (especially vard/stephanie v/portlandia) who push the free media angle as one of the selling points that the well can only be gone to so many times and that Novick looks as if he will tap it in the primary.

While Merkley has been running phone banks for a while now

For his sake, let's hope that those phone bank calls aren't pissing people off as much as the email spam that everyone is complaining about.

Then why the huge comment trying to illustrate the positive coverage Steve has received on this site?

Because I am not BlueOregon. BlueOregon is not Kari Chisholm. I am one of three editors, and one of some 35+ contributors.

I was illustrating the positive coverage Steve has received on BlueOregon - but that's an entirely different thing than whatever I've personally written.

Nor I am I advocating for Novick to pull a Guiliani but I am warning the people (especially vard/stephanie v/portlandia) who push the free media angle as one of the selling points that the well can only be gone to so many times and that Novick looks as if he will tap it in the primary.

I'd rather find myself in the 10th inning with a shortstop strapping on the tools of ignorance, than lose a game because I wouldn't pinchhit for my catcher in the 9th.

I'd rather find myself in the 10th inning with a shortstop strapping on the tools of ignorance, than lose a game because I wouldn't pinchhit for my catcher in the 9th.

You're beautiful when you bench coach...!

First the catcher is the position in baseball and it requires the most intelligence and strategic thinking. The probability that your "pinch hitter" gets a hit when compared to letting your catcher bat (perhaps 4 or 5 more times out of a hundred opportunities at most) vs the almost certainty that your shortstop catching in the bottom of the 9th will commit errors in the behind the plate and his poor defense wont allow your closer to throw his nasty curve ball in the dirt makes pinch hitting a horrible idea with your last catcher and why it is almost never done in the big leagues.

Sorry to non sports people but baseball is my second addiction

why, Bradley, despite all appearances it appears we DO have something in common!

:::swooooon:::

Having said that, of course, you're dead wrong.

You have two choices:

(a) guaranteed loss in the 9th (b) possibility of tie / victory in 9th or extra innings

I'll take (b), thank you very much.

"Torridjoe: I only know what I see."

THAT I believe.

Stephanie:

The choice isn't pinch hit or automatically lose. It is let your catcher bat or pinch hit Even if a pinch hitter is a .300 hitter (which is excellent) and your catcher is a .260 hitter (which is about average for a big league catcher) you get a 4% better chance of getting a hit. The book Moneyball points out that just by watching one game it is impossible to see the difference in between a .280 batting average and a .300 batting average because the difference is like 1 hit every two weeks of games.

Where as if you have ever tried to catch a big league hammer (curve ball) you would know that if your not a catcher you will flat embarrass yourself. Your pitchers unable to throw breaking balls will get pummeled and you will lose. Thats why you don't see second catchers getting pinch hit for. I challenge you to think of one example of when it happened and was a good idea, cuz i can think of plenty of clutch hits by catchers to tie/win games (Carlton Fisk any one?).

The point was I don't think that I don't think that Novick has built an organization that will be able to play the extra innings. Merkley is. In both elections the Democrat is going to have to maintain parity on the air waves (tv, radio, not youtube) and then win the field war. I don't see Novick doing that in the primary let alone the ability to do that in the general.

TJ: Im glad youre psychic abilities inform your writing. I am I missing a Novick effort in Salem? Or are you just being an ass?

Bradley, I've read Moneyball too, and a few other things about baseball, in my time.

I didn't come here to argue late inning strategy with you but I will return to the original point: we're in a high stakes game, maybe the equivalent of the 7th game of the LCS, and if I'm behind, I'm not going to worry about pinch hitting for my catcher, using Schilling as my closer, or any other measure I have to take to get into the World Series. I'm going to do it. Worrying about how to win the World Series is great, but first you have to, you know, get into the World Series.

That's my point and I suspect you understand it perfectly well.

Kevin, I have no idea what the hell you're talking about.

How a post asking people to stop bitching about Kari's display of his preferences (yes, with a wee little snark at Kari thrown in), could be so hopelessly misinterpreted is beyond me.

For those of us who are still trying to evaluate the candidates and make an informed decision, all this meta-battling doesn't inform anyone or add anything to a substantive debate. And yes, I'm a bit annoyed at myself for getting goaded into being part of it.

<h2>LT, when did I call you a name? other than LT I mean?</h2>