About Florida and Michigan, at my house
Steve Bucknum
The following conversation was had today at our house: J: The Democrats have to do something about Florida and Michigan. We can’t disenfranchise millions of voters! Howard Dean should do something! S: Well, it isn’t up to Howard Dean. As Chair of the DNC, he has to follow the rules, and the rules for the primary elections were adopted way back in August of 2006. The DNC can’t help it if a State Party goes maverick on them. J: But the rules just aren’t right if they allow millions of votes not to count! S: Hey, you need to back up and rethink this. The Constitution allows political parties as part of the right of free association. No government or other body gets to tell the Party how to nominate a candidate for President or any other office. The Party doesn’t have to have elections or caucuses that involve the voters at all, they could just nominate a candidate directly from the State delegates that make up the DNC. We have elections and caucuses to get voter input, and to select delegates. The rules are the rules, and they are much like the rules we have had for the last 40 years. Coming in late and complaining about the rules because you don’t like the outcome is unfair for everyone that plays by the rules. The Democratic Party has the right to run itself as best it sees fit. J: But the DNC must do something about Florida and Michigan. S: No, it’s not Howard Dean’s responsibility, nor the DNC, for what Florida and Michigan’s State Parties did in violation of the DNC rules. Sometimes State Parties go maverick. What if out of enthusiasm for Sen. McCain, their home town hero, the Democratic Party of Arizona went with him. What if the Democratic State Party of Arizona couldn’t help themselves, and voted to overrule their own delegation and send in one for McCain? Would the DNC be forced to seat delegates for a Republican candidate at the Democratic National Convention? Of course not! When a State Party goes maverick, off the reservation, it is not the responsibility of the National Party to go along with their rule violation. Sure, I would hope that Howard Dean and the DNC would work with those State parties to find a fix whereby the State’s could comply with the Party rules, but the final and ultimate responsibility for the votes not counting in Florida and Michigan in the Democratic primary elections belongs to those State parties. J: Well, this whole rule process is just wrong! It happens out of sight, and nobody knows about it. S: If the we had a rules committee meeting right here in Prineville, and if as precinct committeeman I went and knocked on every door in my precinct, I would bet you that the only local Democrat that I could get to go to a Rules Committee meeting, including myself, would be you! It is not the fault of the Rules Committee or the Democratic Party that the press hardly ever covers these dry and boring meetings or what they are about. These meetings are open, interested people can go, but what we find is that all of these meetings that later turn out to be important are generally ignored. It is a general failing of human nature that we ignore the rules and don’t put any effort into understanding them or even vaguely caring about them until we don’t like them in practice. J: So, you don’t think the rule is wrong, you don’t think the DNC can do anything, and you think its just fine that millions of votes in Florida and Michigan don’t count?! S: No, I don’t think its "fine"! But these State Parties violated the rules, knowing in advance exactly what they were doing and what the consequences would be. Just because a great injustice has happened in Florida and Michigan, it doesn’t mean we should abandon the process and the rules – that would be a greater injustice. J: But, it’s just wrong! And the conversation will go on for hours like this … dinner might be late. The dog is wondering what happened to his afternoon walk. Ahhh, politics!
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5:58 p.m.
Feb 18, '08
When delegations from Florida and Michigan vote to approve the rules (including the primary calendar) at a DNC meeting, and when Florida and Michigan members of the DNC's Rules Committee vote to penalize each other (but not themselves), it's hard to feel much sympathy when the DNC does just that.
I wish Florida and Michigan hadn't put themselves in this situation, but they did. They decided to be defiant, and they did that knowing what could happen.
The DNC has offered to help those states in ways that don't break the rules. I hope Florida and Michigan decide to stop shooting themselves in the foot.
By the way, it's interesting to see this turn of events. Had they stayed right where they were originally, they would have had a significant impact on this contest. It just goes to show -- no one, no matter how good they think they are -- knows how things will go.
Remember the folks who were certain that Oregon needed to move up to Feb. 5? It now looks as though our primary will be significant for the first time in 40 years. No one ever could have predicted that.
Feb 18, '08
Anyone else note the irony or yet another FL mess up affecting the DNC?
6:16 p.m.
Feb 18, '08
Sorry about the double post. Don't remember hitting the button twice.
Feb 18, '08
There's nothing that can be done now. It's over. The DNC made this happen as leadership knew full well votes would not count in the nomination process when they decided to punished Michigan and Florida.
What I don't get is the lack of outrage over Hillary suggesting the DNC simply reverse itself and count the two state's votes/delegates. Especially after she broke her word and campaigned there and was the only one on the balot in Michigan. That's got to be nearly an all time whopper for gaul.
Feb 18, '08
I think that Obama in fact spent some campaign money in Florida; for what exactly, I don't know. I could almost understand the DNC deciding to split the delegates there according to the vote. For Michigan, where Clinton was the only one on the ballot, this scheme would be nonsensical.
Feb 18, '08
By the way, there seems to be an increasing likelihood that on the night of March 4th, we'll be hearing the spinmeisters and pundits telling us that the election in Texas doesn't really count, either.
8:16 p.m.
Feb 18, '08
I have suggested a solution at my blog. Basically, the idea is to only seat half of each state's delegates and let each delegation decide the matter for themselves right there at the convention and vote accordingly.
There may be other ways of resolving this. But from a purely pragmatic perspective it seems to me that whomever the Democratic nominee is, he/she is going to need both Florida and Michigan in the general election.
Feb 18, '08
Maybe some wise people can come up with a solution--apparently we were close to this sort of a "train wreck" before the 1988 convention when Jesse Jackson was saying the rules weren't quite fair or something.
One solution suggested was that the Florida and Michigan delegates be made proportional to the national vote or something.
But here is the problem. Suppose Florida is told they can have 50 delegates or whatever. How will they be chosen? Will Connie and Juan and Bill and Sue and all the others campaign for delegate by saying "vote for me because I am the strongest candidate" or "vote for me because we need experienced delegates and I've been a delegate before"?
Will there be debates about panhandle Democrats vs. Miami Democrats? Same with Detroit Democrats vs. Grand Rapids (President Ford's old home area) vs. Upper Peninsula Democrats. The individuals chosen as the actual delegates do matter, because conventions can make rules changes as well as debating platform planks.
I agree with Steve's
"These meetings are open, interested people can go, but what we find is that all of these meetings that later turn out to be important are generally ignored. It is a general failing of human nature that we ignore the rules and don’t put any effort into understanding them or even vaguely caring about them until we don’t like them in practice."
In the time between 1984 and 1988, there was a major revision of the rules besides the hearings of the Fairness Comm. When the State Rules Comm. met to discuss these delegate selection rules, the people at the meetings were basically Rules Comm. members and former delegates--no one else understood the subject (or cared?).
On the national level, there was a fight about one particular paragraph of the rules. It was a paragraph Jimmy Carter had used in 1976 and some people had been arguing about it ever since.
Those who knew the process knew one of our Oregon DNC members was very much involved in these issues as a member of the delegate selection convention---it had been announced at party meetings that our guy had been chosen for the Fairness Comm. Anyone attending meetings or dinners or whatever could approach the DNC member and talk about these debates--he seemed eager for the discussion, as if not many people understood or cared about these issues. Whenever I talked with him, I made clear why I believed the paragraph should stay in the rules.
The DNC finalized the 1988 delegate selection rules and our DNC member reported the decision to the State Central Comm. Some of the central comm. members went ballistic. I hadn't seen them talking to our DNC member and I wondered why they hadn't expressed that anger when it would have done some good.
As the debate wore on (a resolution to condemn the changes), the DNC member told me that the decision at the national level was final and no state could change the rules at that point (early 1988, as I recall).
One more thing, Wayne--I recall the 1968 Oregon primary when a friend who had been born in Mass. looked at the TV screen (we were in college in Calif.) and was amazed that a Kennedy had been beaten by Eugene McCarthy. We supported McCarthy and would later see in person at the local airport in California.
But I don't agree with you about "first time in 40 years". Almost a quarter of a century ago, the Oregon presidential primary mattered, for a number of reasons. Not the least of which was the number of first time volunteers who got involved, and the number of people who were either elected Hart delegates for the national convention, or who took part in the delegate selection process incl. the district and state conventions.
Those people became active in the Oregon Democratic Party and changed the direction of that party for several years afterwards.
9:39 p.m.
Feb 18, '08
People are trying to push the idea that these changes in date were something that Republican legislatures did to the Dmeocrats knowing they'd loose their delegates. The only problem being that in Florida there were only three votes against the date change - one in the House and two in the Senate. In Michigan, Dems control one branch of the legislature and the governor is a Dem. There the vote had more people voting no, but still more Dems voted for the change in date in both branches of the legislature than against. In the Senate, no one voted no (one absent, one not voting). In the House -- Dems yes: 29, Dems no: 22; Repubs yes: 38, Repubs no: 12.
So the next time someone pulls the "Republicans did this to the poor Dems," please debunk this and tell the truth. The two state legislatures decided to do this against the rules that had been set forth. Both parties participated in the move, and now they're dealing with the consequences of their actions.
9:50 p.m.
Feb 18, '08
Joel:
Yea, that setup has been that way for years and years. I attended three of the caucuses there, one when I was 16 with my mom, and then the 1996 and 2000 caucuses once I was old enough to participate myself. I was excited, because at 18 I was the secretary of my caucus and at 22 the chair.
It's an odd system, but there are no surprises - it's been that way for two decades or so. And if Hillary's people are just learning about it, that's an internal problem - they should have looked into the way the states all work a while ago, not just before early voting starts (voting starts tomorrow).
9:55 p.m.
Feb 18, '08
Hillary Clinton--Ready On Day One--unless there's a Plan B. :)
Feb 18, '08
I've been arguing vigorously against any attempt to retroactively revise the rules to seat Michigan and Florida. I don't think the party should do that, especially if it could alter the outcome of the nomination.
That said, we do have a problem. Something like 1.5 million Florida Dems (can anyone verify that number?) came out to vote -- which is somewhat shocking given that everyone knew the votes wouldn't count. Obviously, those voters did think they would count -- or at least that they should. These are people we absolutely need in the general, every last one of them. Same with Michigan.
So this is a real problem not for Obama or Clinton, but for the Democratic party in the general election. I see no good solutions, and it worries me.
Feb 19, '08
Reinforcing my point, I just saw this Rasmussen poll from Florida.
This is a nightmare for the party. Obama is significantly behind McCain in Florida compared to Clinton, unlike the results from almost every other state. The hypothesis is that Florida Dems, particularly women and the elderly, are angry at Obama for arguing that they shouldn't have a voice at the convention.
So the bad behavior of Florida Dems by moving up their primary, coupled with the game of chicken played by the national Dems ("We won't seat your delegates. We really mean it!"), coupled with Hillary Clinton's exploitation of the issue for her own advantage, is hurting the party's chances of winning in November.
Sad. And scary.
12:59 a.m.
Feb 20, '08
I recall reading somewhere that it is still open to Florida and Michigan to seat delegations by creating some sort of caucus process. Does anyone know if that's true?
6:19 a.m.
Feb 20, '08
That's true. The penalty imposed by the DNC was based on the fact that Florida and Michigan held primaries too early, and planned to use the results of those primaries to apportion their delegates. The DNC has offered to help with caucuses, but so far, have been refused.
Mar 3, '08
The Florida Republican legislature set the January date. Like Jame's Thurber said, "you can look it up" I voted in Florida on the only date I could. A primary with a nearly 2 million people voting is real democracy. What would a caucus in Florida have 50,000 people? Oh well, there's always Nadar.