Punditology Deadline: Tonight
Kari Chisholm
A brief reminder for folks who missed my earlier post over the holiday weekend.
Once again, a bunch of the sharpest political insiders, lobbyists, consultants, bloggers, and elected officials are competing in my election-year no-money election prediction pool.
Think you know how the 2008 presidential primaries are going to turn out? This is your chance to prove your mettle. Prove you're the one that knows who's who and what's what.
The deadline is tonight at midnight. So, dig in: The 2008 Presidential Primary Punditology Challenge
Tomorrow morning, I'll post the "conventional wisdom" -- which is usually right, except when it's wild-ass wrong.
Feel free to use this post to discuss tomorrow's Iowa caucus.
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connect with blueoregon
Jan 2, '08
-Kari,
I believe that the "official" punditology deadline will be at 7:59pm CST tomorrow night, won't it? At least, in Iowa.
12:14 p.m.
Jan 2, '08
Uh... well, yeah. But to enter this little pool, it's midnight tonight!
Jan 2, '08
Ok, in that case. Here are my picks:
Iowa: Dems: Obama, 1st, Edwards, 2nd, Hillary, 3rd. Rep: Huckabee, 1st, Romney, 2nd, McCain 3rd.
NH: Dems: Obama, 1st, Hillary, 2nd, Edwards, 3rd. Rep: McCain, 1st, Romney, 2nd, Guiliani 3rd.
MI: A wash since they screwed themselves.
SC: Dems: Obama, 1st, Edwards, 2nd, Hillary, 3rd. Rep: Huckabee, 1st, McCain, 2nd, Romney 3rd.
FL: Dems: Hillary, 1st, Obama, 2nd, Edwards, 3rd Rep: Guilaini, 1st, Romney, 2nd, Huckabee, 3rd.
1:25 p.m.
Jan 2, '08
Dude, seriously. Go fill out the Punditology Challenge. Posting here doesn't count. (Not least because those aren't the questions...)
1:34 p.m.
Jan 2, '08
LiberalIncarnate, you forgot Nevada which comes after Michigan and before South Carolina.
I agree pretty much with your guess, but with the addition of the missing primary from your run-down (Nevada's) I think it will be NV: Hillary 1st, Edwards 2nd, Obama 3rd.
I think we won't have a clear frontrunner until after the super Tuesday which I think will be Obama. Though there is an outside chance that no candidate has the magic number of delegates going into the convention.
While Michigan's delegates won't be counted, I think the results might affect the narrative and momentum going into Nevada as it might be the first state I see Hillary winning.
Jan 2, '08
-Kari,
Dude! I get it.
lestatdelc, you are right about Nevada. I clearly forgot about them. They are not in my monthly planner. Hillary is way ahead here (scratching my head as to why). MI Hillary will win because as far as I know she is the only one left on the ballot for the Dems.
What was NOT asked in the Punditry Challenge was who will win out in the first ballot in the Iowa caucus. For the Dems, I believe this will be Hillary, however, the 2nd choicers will move to either Obama or Edwards for the most part.
2:09 p.m.
Jan 2, '08
That is where Richardson becomes a factor. I can easily see him instructing his ground people to have his caucus supporters throw behind Hillary when he doesn't hit 15% viability and thus play "kingmaker" for a cabinet post or ambassadorship in a Clinton administration... but I think Obama, then Edwards, followed by Clinton come out of Iowa with delegates, in that order.
Jan 2, '08
What is BlueOregon and Kari Chrisholm, President of Mandate Media? Progressive Oregonian? Progressive - possible, but in what field? In field of violation of the Code of Ethics for the Media. In his web page are names of Candidates running for US Senator, but isn't my name. Why? He does in intentionally with conspiracy of Merkley, Democratic Party and the media. Well, as Bible says and I put it in my web side: "For the wages of sin, liar and Evil is punishment, suffering, illnesses and death". It will come: soon or later.
Pavel Goberman - Candidate for US Senator www.getenergized.com/vote.html
Jan 2, '08
What is BlueOregon and Kari Chrisholm, President of Mandate Media? Progressive Oregonian? Progressive - possible, but in what field? In field of violation of the Code of Ethics for the Media. In his web page are names of Candidates running for US Senator, but isn't my name. Why? He does in intentionally with conspiracy of Merkley, Democratic Party and the media. Well, as Bible says and I put it in my web side: "For the wages of sin, liar and Evil is punishment, suffering, illnesses and death". It will come: soon or later.
Pavel Goberman - Candidate for US Senator www.getenergized.com/vote.html
10:07 p.m.
Jan 2, '08
Pavel, you rock. I won't be voting for you, but I love your posts. Entertaining every time. Enlightening on occasion (though sadly, not this one, due to the lack of a link to whatever page you're talking about.) But always worth a read.
FYI, this is because I believe that out of John Frohnmayer, Jeff Merkley, and Steve Novick, we have three shots at having one of the most passionate, most intelligent, and most effective Senators in the entire country representing us. I'm not inclined to look for somebody who lacks significant political experience. If we were looking at Zell Miller and Dianne Feinstein as our choices, then maybe. But there's just no reason to consider it here.
Not meaning to discourage you in any way from your posts, I always enjoy them. Best of luck to you and your campaign.
10:29 a.m.
Jan 3, '08
In field of violation of the Code of Ethics for the Media.
We're not the media, we're a blog.
In his web page are names of Candidates running for US Senator, but isn't my name. Why?
If you're talking about the ActBlue listing, it's because you're not on ActBlue. Otherwise, I have no idea what you're talking about.
He does in intentionally with conspiracy of Merkley, Democratic Party and the media.
Yeah, right. If this were entirely about Jeff Merkley, Steve Novick wouldn't get any attention around here. Bummer for you - he gets plenty.
One last thing: If you want to submit a guest column about why you're running, we'll happily run it. But we won't publish anything libelous or slanderous - and so far, I haven't seen a post from you that doesn't include a healthy dose of libel.
6:37 p.m.
Jan 3, '08
ROFLMAO
Pavel, what the bible actually says is:
So you can't even quote the damn bible correctly on your website or your post here (either of them) let alone make a coherent argument/comment.
Jan 6, '08
Some (from Mandate Media) are so afraid even to name me by name. It is huge victory for the Real Progressive People as me. But it is good, a real Freedom of Speech: someone in BlueOregon didn't censor my message and published it. About comment why I'm running: it is open to the public on my web site: www.getenergized.com/vote.html and on 01/19/07 I did Press Release to the media and etc. Most People don't know the truth what is going in the media, parties and about politicians, and I informed them. And again: if I would see if someone better than me could help state and nation in: national security, economy, health care/insurance, reduce heavy traffic and same time reduce pollution, reduce high price of fuel, fight corporate welfare, reduce taxes, cut postage rate, stop moving job abroad and etc - I will not run. About saying: it is a part from Bible and my Statement - it is from my life experience.
Pavel Goberman - Candidate for US Senator
11:10 p.m.
Jan 10, '08
For real entertainment Folks, doa Google search of Pavel Goberman and you'll see how highly regarded he is by several political parties in Oregon. Here I'll give you a freebie: portland.metblogs.com/archives/2005/05/another_hate_em.phtml Happy trails!
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