As my name says I'm an Obama fan. But putting that aside I think for the Democrats there are two possible outcomes:

NH Primary Outcome -- Obama wins by 12% or higher and Clinton does not get 25%

Result -- The election is over before Super-Duper Tuesday (Does anyone else laugh when Carl Castle says that on NPR?). Obama wins South Carolina and Nevada in landslide. Clinton draws a line in the sand at California but pull ads when Obama goes 10 points up on her three days before Feb 5th.

NH Primary Outcome -- Obama wins by less than 11%.

Results -- It becomes OK to cry in politics and baseball. We all get to see the "Come Back Kid II: the Revenge of Hilary." Clinton does better than expected in South Carolina. People start to take another look Hilary. Obama and Clinton start battling over the Super Duper Tuesday states and it is really close in 15 states. No clear democratic nominee till early Feb.

Enjoy the show all.

• Will Hillary Clinton bounce back?

No.

• McCain or Romney?

McCain.

• Will Mike Huckabee do better than fourth?

Yes.

• If he wins today, is Barack Obama home free for the nomination?

No.

Hillary is done. The Clinton dynastic dreams are finished.

Obama pulls enough independents to make it a cliffhanger for McCain.

Huckabee is third further fracturing the Repub party.

Obama's wave is a tsunami sweeping toward nomination and Nov. victory.

The early reports is that they are seeing record breaking turnout in New Hampshire. This bodes well for Obama since he has brought so many new voters into the process.

Is this all about "rhetoric" or "goose bumps" as some have been suggesting? I don't think so. Obama has the right message for this point in history. I also think that he and his campaign has been working extremely hard and has a great organization.

Check out the following comment from the Obama Campaign:

"Obama’s momentum in the Granite State is backed by organization. Since February, the campaign has made over 1.5 million phone calls and knocked on over 400,000 doors. Over the weekend, the campaign knocked on almost 180,000 doors, made nearly 170,000 calls, and signed up nearly 18,000 new supporters. More than 1,000 New Hampshire college students have already voted for Barack Obama. Now we are ramping up for a GOTV push unlike anything the Granite State has ever seen."

This hard working "hands on" grassroots approach will a great plus in the general election.

It will be a supreme irony if HRC loses the front loaded primary season. The whole concept of stacking a bunch of big states at the beginning was the brainchild of a campaign and its enablers that wanted to take advantage of the Clinton name. It was thought that "unknowns" like Obama could never compete in such a quick, broad competition, either financially or in name recognition. Now it appears that it is Hillary who may not be left time for voters to reconsider her candidacy before being swept away by the Obama tidal wave.

With each party's nominee being selected a year before inauguration, there is an extraodinary amount time for bad things to happen--a humongous gaffe, an serious illness, a recession, or a third party. We may be choosing a President between two nominees whose positions are no longer relevant to the issues facing the nation on election day.

Personally, I don't understand why the primary season has to start until the Summer before the elections. Most European democracies don't even allow that much time.

The election season is just another edition of American Idol.

Mike Huckabee has our vote!

Mike Huckabee was named as one of Americas top 5 governors in Time magazine!

Mike Huckabee consistently reduced taxes and left Arkansas with a billion dollar surplus!

Mike Huckabee was the most successful governor in Arkansas for over 10 years!

Mike Huckabee beleives in some things, and he stands for some things! And those things are what we common Americans believe in!

Mike is an authentic conservative, but more importantly, an authentic human being!

Mike Huckabee is from the people, for the people!

Mike Huckabee spent 1 doallar to Mitt Romney''s 20 but still took more than 10,000 votes for a first place fisnish in Iowa!

Mike Huckabee has the largest support of military members!

Mike Huckabee wants to honor America and finish the job in the war on terror!

Mike Huckabee is a great guy, and the best choice for president I have ever seen!

We like Mike!

Dan Campbell Sgt., USMC

I'm just hoping to see the New York Times headline: "For a former frontrunner, an ass kicking."

I'm still backing Edwards, but the prospect of a large ideological shift spurred by an inspiring candidate is exciting. I at least trust that Obama won't turn evil on us, although he might end up squandering the opportunity. As a nation, we sure could use a benevolent figure to get us believing in ourselves again, and the power of hope instead of fear.

torridjoe, i really like how you phrased this. i feel the same way. i like barak obama a lot, don't love him though in the sense of wanting to jump unreservedly on his bandwagon. like you, i see edwards as (marginally) the best of the lot.

i am really happy to see the response that obama is getting, because that says as much about where our country is right now than it does about him, if that makes any sense.

fixing the bold link. dang.

Although, Obama might still pull off a win in NH, it doesn't look good at this moment. It seems as if the heavy turn out fell of Hillary's crying. Will nothing ever change in this country?

liberalincarnate,

i doubt it's hillary's crying that's doing the trick. i'd like to think that democrats and democratic leaning independents (whatever that means...fencesitters! ;0) are starting to take a good hard look at whether a political novice like obama will really be our strongest candidate. fortunately, it seems like the new hampshire primary voters aren't jumping on the iowa college student bandwagon.

love her or hate her, hillary is a grizzled veteran who has been attacked by the right for the last 30 years and still is an electable candidate. as i've said before at this site (and been murdered for it by obama backers, to whom i'll give credit for giving me food for thought...see the obama's victory speech for details) i believe hillary clinton will be the best president for our country. as polarizing as she is, in this environment i find it difficult to conceive of a republican victory in november. the question of electability is all but moot on our side. she's not cute and fuzzy like obama, but she's tough and smart and knows how to win, and i think she'll be able to govern sensibly, intuitively, and compassionately. still, i'm watching returns live and hillary only has a 2% lead with 43% of precincts reporting, so the goodly folks in new hampshire, who surely represent an accurate cross-section of our country (as do the voters in iowa) may yet do their part as (presumed) kingmakers. i humbly await the inevitable onslaught...

i couldn't agree more. she's damned if she do, damned if she don't, a lot that is shared by women in general in our society. people say she's a robot, she's too aloof, and then she shows a genuine, unscripted moment of human emotion and she's derided as a crybaby. i'll happily vote for edwards, obama, or clinton. that's not a choice of the lesser of evils, but the greater of goods.

The thing is...People have been betting against the Clintons for 35 years, and every time, they lost their money.

Clinton is too young. Clinton is too tarnished Clinton cant win back the governor's office Clinton doesnt have the money to run Clinton cant win the nomination Clinton cant win the general Clinton cant pass meaningful legislation Clinton is done after losing Healthcare Clinton cant get reelected Clinton is done after being impeached Clinton cant win a senate race

Only 2 left...

Clinton cant get the Nomination Clinton cant win the General

Where are you putting your money??

i've just got a few general thoughts, having watched speeches by paul, edwards, mccain, obama, and clinton. maybe it's easy to get swept up in the heat of the moment, but i don't think i detected insincerity on the part of any of the candidates. hell, the primary is the time when you pander to your base, when you can be the most honest. the question isn't so much 'which candidate believes in what they're saying' as 'whose vision do you believe in?'

paul, for all that i love his rabid social libertarianism and anti-war stance, is a complete wacko. he seems more like a senile old grandpa who lives in a rusty trailer outside of kingman, az, and pops up with a loaded shotgun every time he hears a coyote rustling outside in the middle of the night. mccain, who can't respect a man who spent years in a tiger cage and came out of it with such dignity and courage? having said that, their moronic idolatry of the free market, mccain's hawkishness and social conservatism and paul's 2nd amendment anachronism and keystone cops tax policy are absolutely appalling.

edwards seemed rattled, exhausted, and bafflingly optimistic. i think he's got real conviction though, and i think, like last time, he'd make a great veep. i'll admit right now that obama has speaking skills that no other candidate on either side can match. hands down, he's the most skilled orator, the most handsome, the most charismatic candidate either party has to offer. while his concession speech left me almost breathless and on the verge of tears, hillary's victory speech was somewhat flat after listening to barak. but i keep reminding myself not to get too carried away. all the obama supporters who shot me down the other day had some valid points. hillary's vote for the iraq war, in retrospect, does seem a bit baffling. ( before one gets too holier-than-thou, i wonder if any hardcore obama supporters can point to how many votes where barak has voted to kill further funding for the iraq war.) i'll leave it to the hardcore political wonks to out-argue me, and as i said earlier, i do have some good food for thought.

torridjoe said above that in the presidential elections, people vote their guts. i largely agree with that assessment, so here's what my gut tells me. this is our year (meaning us big Ds.) if i thought there was a real shot of a republican winning this fall, i would pick obama in the primary, because his charisma alone could very well carry the day. it still might. but since i think we will probably win no matter what, i have to think beyond that.

while obama is full of hope and promises, my gut tells me that it will be a helluva lot harder to enact his vision of a happy, united america than he's letting on. i think his idealism, untempered as it is by many years of politics, will stand in his way when he takes office. i don't know how he would realize his vision, as marvelous as that vision is. what others perceive as a strength, i perceive as a weakness. the very fact that he is a relative novice is betrayed by what i can only describe as a naivete in which he feels that all america will unite behind him once he's elected president.

while hillary clearly is at a deficit in terms of approachability, i get a sense that she is more grounded in reality as far as what it will take both to win the general election and govern our nation afterwards. we are still living in an age of hyperpartisanism, and she understands that and will ultimately be more effective at advancing a progressive agenda. there. that's my gut. i'll let others throw out all sorts of facts and statistics and tabulations from various senate votes in the past. in homage to torridjoe's analysis that it's the gut that counts in presidential elections, my gut tells me that in the long run, hillary will do a better job as president.

"nominate Huckabee and pass the popocron... "

Thanks for a laugh after a long stressful day. I have never tasted popocron!

Hillary wins.

Obama's 15 minutes of fame are just about over.

Actually, America wins because this nomination battle (in both parties) is wide open and anything can happen.

Now if Edwards or Richardson were to win a primary or a caucus, perhaps even Oregon's primary might mean something!