Charlie,

I do like me some Jim Nam. He's a heck of a mind and a heck of a worker who was........shall we say.......underused......by the Kulongoski campaign, but has landed on his feet with Obama.

It's encouraging to see the Gen Xers get fired up around the Obama/Iowa effort, and Michelle is Da Bomb to out there on the hustings:

It shouldn't be natural that Obama, with her advanced degrees, her height (she's 5-foot-11), her grace, her killer Jimmy Choo boots and impeccably tailored bell-sleeved tunics, would connect to the comparatively pale, squat groups of people who crowd restaurants and theater lobbies to hear her speak. But she does. As Mary Blake, an 81-year-old from Dorchester, tells me, "I think she's one of our own. Our different heritage probably doesn't matter so much if her experience leads her to understand us." --Rebecca Traister at Salon.com.

I do like me some Jim Nam.

Hear. hear. Jim did a helluva job for the governor, and from where I sat over on the official side, they seemed to at least always be keeping him busy. As early as October last year, I know that the Obama campaign was where Jim wanted to be, so it's pretty cool to watch what he's up to from afar.

I was actually not only hoping to go out to Iowa myself for a few weeks before the caucus, but was originally thinking I'd go to Jim's county, all things being equal. Have him put me to work doing whatever. I'm not going to be able to make it because of the birth of Libby and my first child, but that's really only just about the only thing that would keep me back.

I'm still watching the process pretty closely and trying to help from here where I can. I like our chances, btw. I also think Edwards looks strong. It's really hard to make any meaningful predictions from a thousand miles away, but my gut is that we're on the right track, very well-positioned.

Backbeat... please don't make a habit of shoving posts off topic. This isn't the first time this week.

Edwards still has the strongest ground game organization in Iowa. He has been camped there for 6 plus years now. I would also worry if I was part of the Obama campaign that they are relying to some degree on the Dean model which failed him in 2004, that of using a lot of out-of-state young volunteers to beat the brush for caucus goers.

Seems Iowa (and to some extent New Hampshire) are much more about in-state, local, ground-up support more than outside in voluntarism carrying the day.

While Obama is on the correct trajectory in both states, I hope his campaign has learned from the shortcomings of the Dean campaign in Iowa caucuses. Edwards is still the strongest in Iowa and despite being in the very close third position in the recent polling, Obama has better polling results currently and is moving up there and in NH.

If Obama can get the ground game solid and deliver Iowa for him, and he gets a follow-up win in NH (where he is rapidly moving into striking distance of Clinton) it could tip the balance of the race in his favor.

Matthew Sutton, you seem to be missing the point I was raising. Out of state volunteers and opening of offices is not at all the gauge of having a solid ground game and is indeed the same sorts of things that failed Dean in Iowa.

I appreciate your enthusiasm in reciting the optimistic talking points I have read about the 37 offices, 300 employees, etc. in the media and from numerous other out-of-state volunteers lauding what you are trying to do in Iowa, but that you are pointing to Oregonians in Iowa volunteering proves the very point I am talking about.

I am not the only one who have noticed the similarities of relying on out-of-state boots in Iowa, and volunteers who skew young, college student and inexperienced caucus goers many of whom will be out of the state when the caucuses occur because of the holiday break, etc.

Again, I hope the Obama campaign avoids the mistakes of relying on inexperienced caucus goers, many of whom are college students who while attending colleges in Iowa are form out-of-state and may be absent due to the holiday breaks, etc. I am leaning towards Obama at this stage of the game (hence my hopes that he doesn't fail in Iowa).

L--

A lot of what Obama is doing on the ground with Iowa folks doesn't register with national media, and just doesn't tend to get picked up very widely. Just this week, one of Hillary's Iowa co-chairs defected over to Obama's camp because of the increasingly negative tone of her campaign. He won the endorsement of the Des Moines Mayor Frank Cownie. In an earlier post, I mentioned the under-the-radar endorsement from Gordon Fischer, former chair of the Iowa Democratic Party.

Edwards is strong there, in large part because of the fact that he never really left the state after 2004. But there's more to what you're saying about Dean. Your main point is well-taken, but the reality is that the eventual winner, John Kerry, also heavily used out-of-state volunteers, including a lot of students recruited to take the semester off. But obviously, having out-of-state firefighters, Vietnam War veterans, and Edward Kennedy stumping for you is different from the orange-capped, untrained college students who hit the streets for Dean. Everything I've seen from the Obama folks in Iowa points to an organization providing a lot of intense training and support to make sure that folks are being used effectively. No reciting poetry at the doorstep. And for what it's worth, Obama staffer Steve Hildebrand -- architect of Gore's 2000 Iowa victory -- is considered among the best field organizers and strategists working in Democratic politics.

I've read the same stories about Edwards's organization -- and I don't dismiss them out-of-hand -- but I am not at all convinced he's the most organized. Historically, these predictions have been way off, including the alleged ground-game superiority of Dean's campaign (the conventional wisdom up until caucus day).

I look at the Jefferson/Jackson Dinner as a pretty good test of organizational strength. All campaigns are using out-of-state volunteers -- including Edwards -- but the tickets for the event were given to in-state supporters and leaners. And Obama dominated.

A lot of the out-of-town volunteers I know personally who are in Iowa now are Long Islanders coming out to support Hillary. And my assumption is that they're not doing voter contact, because to a person, their accents sound pretty Long Islandish. But I have no doubt they'll be useful, because there's a lot of logistical support that goes into preparation for a caucus too.

So that's my mildly boosterish take on things; as I wrote above, it's just very, very hard to truly predict what's going to happen on the ground without actually being in Iowa.

Actually, the number of out of state volunteers doesn't matter if they provide the infrastructure for the old time Iowans to recruit friends and others to attend caucuses.

LT does a nice job summing up in a sentence what I was circuitously getting at in six paragraphs.

Posted by: Charlie Burr | Dec 8, 2007 12:56:14 PM I look at the Jefferson/Jackson Dinner as a pretty good test of organizational strength. All campaigns are using out-of-state volunteers -- including Edwards -- but the tickets for the event were given to in-state supporters and leaners. And Obama dominated.

Same exact paragraph was written and accepted by myself and many other Deaniacs about Dean's performance at the same event. Again, I hope Obama has indeed learned form the Dean campaign. Maybe things are indeed more solid for Obama than was for Dean, I sincerely hope so. I just read the media accounts and they sound exceedingly familiar. The comparison between Dean's Iowa ground game and the Obama one seem more analogous to the Edwards-Dean comparison IMNSHO.

<h2>I am leaning towards Obama at this point, just find lauded media stories about Obama's game in Iowa to be deja vu all over again.</h2>