Low Turnout=Greater Say, So Go Vote!
Jeff Alworth
You have 24 hours to vote. And by "you," I mean the 68% of you (.pdf) who haven't gotten your ballots in yet. And here's a little incentive that Karl Rove well understood: when the voting population is low, a well-motivated minority can sway elections. So your vote has even greater influence in low-turnout elections. The outcome on the ballots is enough in question that the big tobacco companies are still rushing to dump money into false, misleading ads about Measure 50.
There are two key initiatives on the ballot, and the result of this election will have a direct effect on you:
- Measure 49 will fix the ravages of Measure 37, which gutted decades of innovative and admired Oregon land-use planning.
- Measure 50 will assess a tax on cigarettes to pay for children's healthcare--ensuring that 100,000 kids are covered.
It's an off-year for elections, but certainly not an off-year for issues. It's too late to mail your ballot, so drop it off before 8pm on Tuesday.
An entire list of ballot drop-off sites statewide is here. The Bus Project has put together a wonderful map of metro-area sites (skip below the jump), and below are a few more in select counties. Thanks to Brian Goss and Ronando Long
Jackson County
Marion County
Washington County
Clackamas County
Lane County
Multnomah County
Make sure your vote counts.
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Nov 5, '07
Two questions: Who do you think has the advantage in a low voter turnout election, the pro or anti Measure 49 and 50 groups? Second, Was there any talk or movement aimed at an outright repeal of measure 37? If so, I never heard about it or come across it.....Personally, I would of love to have sent it straight into the trash can.
Nov 6, '07
Good news, the turnout in Multnomah County has jumped to 42% as of 5:45 this evening!
That is great, considering that earlier today, it was standing at 36%, or 25,000 fewer votes!
http://www.co.multnomah.or.us/dbcs/elections/2007-11/turnout.shtml
Thanks to our county elections office for providing this up-to-date data, they're the most current of any of the counties, although Clackamas county provides some decent data too (see below):
http://web3.co.clackamas.or.us/elections/updates/pctreturned1107.htm
Where's Washington County? (Someone told me it's available on-line but it must be in an obscure spot, I can't find it).
And through last Friday, the turnout statewide was 38%, so even though that number doesn't include the weekend (which Multnomah's do), this shows that Multnomah is experiencing a surge and won't be lagging as much behind as we feared.
Keep up the great work turning out the vote everyone, particularly in the liberal areas!
Unrepetant Liberal: So far, I would say a low turnout favors the No crowd, as the turnout has been strongest in rural areas, although I think the vote there is significantly more split than in, say, partisan elections, as many farm bureaus have endorsed Measure 49. So, the No crowd won't have the advantage of as skewed a bias in this favor in rural areas as they have in Republican vs. Democrat elections. This is just my guess, but I'd be surprised if they carry rural counties by more than 60-40, and as things unofficially in Multnomah County seem to be running at least 80-20 in favor of the Yes (49), I'll feel good (at least for 49) if we can match their turnout. If they beat our turnout by more than 5%, though, it could be bad.
7:40 a.m.
Nov 6, '07
The O reports today that the final number will go north of 50%, so the turnout is going to be better than expected--if late in coming in.
Low turnout probably would have benefited pro-50 folks; the people who want children's healthcare are likely more motivated than those who are worried about fiddling with the constitution or raising taxes on smokers.
Nov 6, '07
things unofficially in Multnomah County seem to be running at least 80-20 in favor of the Yes (49)
Didn't M37 pass in Multnomah County? I hope you're right, and that people have seen the downside of M37 and are switching their votes on M49, but I will be very surprised if it ends up anywhere near 80-20 in favor.
Nov 6, '07
Miles,
Yes, M37 did pass in Multnomah County in Portland in 2004, during a Presidential election when the turnout was north of 70%. This year, turnout should be around 50%, and as Jeff stated above, low turnout does favor us (so long as we keep up with the rest of the state) because the Yes crowd is very motivated to vote, so there will be far fewer No votes.
And like I said in my post, the 80/20 ratio is a guess on my part based on random samples from canvassing. Maybe it'll be 70/30, but no less I suspect.
Nov 6, '07