Voter Turnout Limited So Far
The debate over Measures 49 and 50 has been both heated and expensive, but as the Ashland Daily Tidings reports, early voter turnout has been modest:
Interest groups have spent millions of dollars airing TV ads for two measures on Oregon’s Nov. 6 ballot, but are voters tuning in?Returns of mail ballots with only a week to go before next Tuesday’s voting deadline indicate a generally tepid response by voters so far.
Most ballots were mailed to voters on Oct. 19, and as of this past weekend, only 17 percent of the ballots had been returned to local election offices, state Elections Director John Lindback said Monday. That could portend an overall turnout of less than 50 percent for this special election, he said.
“I would call the returns modest at best,” Lindback said.
That might surprise some, given that that interest groups have spent a record $20 million flooding the airwaves for weeks with commercials about the two special election measures, according to figures compiled by the watchdog group Democracy Reform Oregon.
Turnout numbers thus far have trailed behind previous special elections:
Portland pollster Tim Hibbitts said he’s been somewhat struck by the seeming disconnect between the ton of TV ads that have run and the early vote returns.“The voters have had these ads stuck in their face for weeks, so there is awareness that there’s en election,” Hibbitts said. “But at this point I would rate voter interest in this election as low to middling.”
Lindback, the state elections chief, said he thought the turnout would have been somewhat higher, given all of the advertising that’s surrounded the two measures — both of which were placed on the ballot by the 2007 Legislature.
He said turnout was 25 percent by this stage in two recent special elections, in February 2004 and January 2003. In those two elections, voters rejected proposed income tax hikes the Legislature had placed on the ballot.
Lindback said he expects a surge of voting next weekend, although it might not equal the levels reached in recent special elections.
“People might be undecided about how they are going to vote, or they might be turned off by the election for some reason, such as a negative reaction to the ads, and don’t plan to vote,” he said.
Read the rest. Have you returned your ballot yet?
Discuss.
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Oct. 30, 2007
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12:07 p.m.
Oct 30, '07
Perhaps the more pertinent question for Blue Oregon readers is: have you canvassed or phonebanked yet?
Are you planning on doing so in the next week?
Sign up!
Oct 30, '07
17% return, nine days before an election, would appear to beat the turnout for every general election since the first one that was vote-by-mail in 1996. What am I missing? I'm looking at the fourth column of data here, where it says "cumulative return as % of total ballots."
The February '04 special election (income taxes) matched this turnout, and the November '97 special election (assisted suicide) beat it by three percentage points, but otherwise, this would seem to be exceptionally high turnout.
Oct 30, '07
obviously no one was aware that we were raising awareness about being aware.
Oct 30, '07
gl, are you saying that the elections director is playing Chicken Little? Because it does seem, though my memory could be wrong, that we often get dire turnout warnings followed by positive surprises.
Oct 30, '07
Maybe a lot of Oregonians will be dropping them off at the last minute because they can't find any stamps to send the ballot beforehand...
1:55 p.m.
Oct 30, '07
Not a bad point Eric, if there is one major change to our vote-by-mail system I would strongly advocate for, it would be making the ballot envelopes postage paid.
Oct 30, '07
I agree about the stamps. They're a poll tax. If you don't have a stamp, you either have to go buy stamps or go to a drop-off site. It's only an annoyance for most (it's the only time I ever need a postage stamp), but it acts as a potential barrier to those with limited mobility and limited budgets. It's not that 41 cents is a great expense, but unless you have the discretionary income (and foresight) to regularly budget for and stock your house full of nonessential miscellany like clog remover, spices, highlighter pens and cotton balls, you're not exactly guaranteed to have a roll of stamps ready for election day in a drawer somewhere, either.
2:10 p.m.
Oct 30, '07
Yes on voted (day my ballot came), phone-bank or canvass plans, no.
It is my understanding that negative ad campaigns tend to suppress voter turnout. It seems likely that the competing messages have created uncertainty for many people and perhaps distrust as well.
James X. appears to have a point that this level of turnout at this point is not unusual, and seems to fall in the middle of the range for comparable dates. However, I think James exaggerates the point a bit.
By my reading of his source, the turnout in 2004 General was 24% by eleven or twelve days before the election (+7%) & was 25% in Feb 2004 (+8%), 29% eleven days before in Feb 2003 (+12%), 25% in November 1997 (+8%). So I don't see 17% as of last weekend as exceptionally high.
But the majority of elections do show either comparable, or, more frequently, lower turnouts at a comparable point, as James suggests.
In general, general election turnouts rise very rapidly close to final election day.
In general, primary and special elections have turnouts less than 50%, the only exceptions being November 1997, May 1998, January 2003 and February 2004. They also tend not to have the late "rush" seen in general elections.
Thus a predicted result in this election of under 50% ought not to elicit the sense of surprise expressed in the news stories.
Oct 30, '07
My parents live close to a drop off box that always appears in the same location 6 blocks away from their house close to election day. That's why they don't send theirs quickly - they wait until that drop off box appears and saves a stamp or two.
I also know of a local church near me that has a "voting party" where they all vote at once, put the envelopes into a car, and that car goes to a drop off box or the elections center on Morrison.
Oct 30, '07
The drop off option makes it Constitutional and not a poll tax. Considering there's about six drop-off sites within half a mile of my workplace, I've never found it a bother to just toss the whole family's ballots in the hopper.
Oct 30, '07
I voted as soon as I got my ballot. No on both of these turkey measures served up by the lazy and cynical bunch in Salem. If they can't cross the aisle and forge a compromise then no reason for me to do their dirty work. No on both measures and put the ball back into their court.
4:04 p.m.
Oct 30, '07
Kinda hard to make a compromise with an opposition party that has outright called bipartisanship "date-rape" don't ya think andy?
Oct 30, '07
Why not do an exit poll right here on Blue O??
Oct 30, '07
Thanks for the correction on turnout numbers, Chris, I didn't look closely enough and thought each column on the PDF was one day apart.
Oct 30, '07
As for dropoff locations mooting the poll tax argument, voting by mail is clearly a convenience, one offered only to people who make a purchase. That convenience is even greater in rural areas, where the county elections office can be as far as 180 miles away, and dropoff locations relatively sparse in between. Inequities in voting accomodations between those who pay and those who don't isn't a fair system.
Oct 30, '07
As someone who voted right away, and having canvassed my neighborhood several times and who feels that the stakes are very high in this election, it amazes me that no one has asked (or answered) the burning question:
Which side does this help?
My guess is that low turnout helps the No side, especially when you can see from the SoS data that Multnomah county is running behind the rest of the state (along with Washington and Clackamas counties).
I for one will be canvassing again this weekend.
8:58 p.m.
Oct 30, '07
The low turnout might not bode well for either of the two measures. I'm sure many people are waiting until the last minute to vote though. The question then becomes, will the turnout be more then 50%?
Oct 30, '07
I always hold my ballot until the last day. I don't like my ballot being opened before election day. I can ignore the phone calls and shred the mail.
Anyone remember staying up half the night waiting for the election returns? Now it is over by the ten o'clock news.
Oct 30, '07
Low voter turnout isn't so bad as long as OUR side votes in high numbers!
So far, that isn't the case for Multnomah county, so let's redouble our efforts to canvass our neighborhoods, talk to our neighbors/friends/co-workers, and save the Oregon that we all love!
Oct 31, '07
Already exercised my right/duty of democracy by voting.
8:25 a.m.
Oct 31, '07
" I don't like my ballot being opened before election day."
It's registered and taken out of the secrecy envelope, but is it actually opened before election day?
Oct 31, '07
james x, if oregon didn't have a vote-by-mail system, and everyone had to physically go to the polls on election day, would the system be more fair?
it seems to me that the folks in the rural parts of the state that have a long way to go to a polling place would be more hurt by that. we don't think of the gas burned in driving to the polls as a poll tax; i can see the rural folks thinking a stamp is cheap in comparison.
Oct 31, '07
Forcing everyone to go to the polls without absentee voting would also create a barrier, yes. And since it is not required that one buy gas to go to the nearest polling place, that's not a tax.
8:21 p.m.
Oct 31, '07
It's registered and taken out of the secrecy envelope, but is it actually opened before election day?
I'm 99.999% sure that the internal ballot secrecy envelopes are NOT opened until 8 pm on Election Day. That's the whole point of a two-envelope system: the voter can be checked-off when the ballot is received but the ballots are all counted together.
11:52 p.m.
Oct 31, '07
So far, that isn't the case for Multnomah county...
Someone associated with Measure 50 can correct me, but I don't expect the Yes vote on 50 in Multnomah County to be especially high.
<h2>The last time we had a tobacco tax on the ballot, the lowest levels of support in the state came from Northeast and Southeast Portland. The highest, from Lake Oswego and West Linn.</h2>