In Oregon, Dem candidates dominate presidential matchups
SurveyUSA has conducted its presidential matchup series in Oregon - including the top three Republicans and top three Democrats.
Of those nine matchups, Democrats win eight -- only Obama vs. Giuliani is tied.
| Hillary Clinton | Barack Obama | John Edwards | ||
| Rudy Giuliani | HRC wins 46/44 | Tied 46/46 | JRE wins 47/44 | RG avg -1.7 |
| Fred Thompson | HRC wins 49/42 | BHO wins 48/43 | JRE wins 51/36 | FT avg -9.0 |
| Mitt Romney | HRC wins 51/38 | BHO wins 53/35 | JRE wins 52/34 | MR avg -16.3 |
| HRC avg +7.3 | BHO avg +7.6 | JRE avg +12.0 |
The full crosstabs are here.
Over at Campaign Diaries, blogger Taniel has this to say:
Oregon is not the most important of swing states, but it could be indicative of how things go in the country. Both Gore and Kerry won the state by small margins. If things are better in 2008 for Democrats, it could mean less worrying about states like Oregon and Minnesota. In MN, SUSA showed a very strong Democratic edge yesterday (see yesterday's poll). Things are a bit less rosy in Oregon, but the state is still light blue.
Discuss.
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Sept. 29, 2007
Posted in open discussion. |
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11:21 a.m.
Sep 29, '07
Giuliani will get mugged by the "values" GOPer base long before the General and I doubt he will make it to their convention, and even if he succeeds, there is so much dirt and exploitable crap to hit Giuliani with that he doesn't stand a chance against any of our top three, and he is the best they have.
11:27 a.m.
Sep 29, '07
Yeah, this still strikes me as mostly a name-ID poll.
Sep 29, '07
Unfortunately Giuliani has an undeserved aura of a moderate amongst the general uninformed populace. He has the undeserved aura of being somehow a hero of 9/11, his mantra. I think Dem candidates need to spend more time exposing the real Rudy, and his "stay the course" on the Bush war, and his pandering to the extremists Repugs on nearly everything. They also need to expose his real record, especially the unsavory and inept aspects of it. It bothers me to see him even get be as close as he is at this point.
1:12 p.m.
Sep 29, '07
Guiliani is not a religious righty, which serves him well in Oregon. and he is better known, as Kari points out. the important part is that the strength of the Ds points towards a good election year overall for Democrats at all levels. as the Dems get around to campaigning for the nominee next year, that can only help in the campaign against Smith and for Legislative candidates.
Sep 29, '07
Fortunately for Oregon The Elections will have passed them By and All this pointless Babble will cease
Sep 29, '07
Oh, we never had to worry about Minnesota. Does anybody remember 1972? I don't. But that was the last time MN went Republican.
Sep 29, '07
[Unsourced anonymous crap about Mitt Romney deleted. -editor.]
7:27 p.m.
Sep 29, '07
While we may end up not having any say in the nominee in out election, that doesn't mean that this is all pointless babble.
Many of us having family and friends in other states that will be voting much earlier. People who are likely to listen to our input.
Some of us also work in other states during the election season - not just states like Iowa, either. I worked in Washington in 2004 at a polling location in Vancouver.
I don't see this as pointless at all. It's helping people like myself who are undecided (not the usual undecideds, but those of us whose ideal candidate isn't in the race) choose who we support. At that point we start giving time and money, which helps the candidates.
Sep 29, '07
The bigger news is that Barack Obama is now leading in Iowa among likely caucas goers.
24,000 showed up for his rally in NYC last week.
And he now has over 350,000 donors to his campaign.
His star is rising, despite the lack of coverage by the national media.
Sep 30, '07
Rudy was elected mayor in a very liberal New York City by voters who wanted someone tough running things. He could do quite well in Oregon, particularly considering the low opinion Hillary has garnered from regular Demos as seen on this website in previous postings.
Rudy will hold onto conservatives whose dislike of his social policies/personal problems is overwhelmed by their hatred of Hillary. That’s why the Repubs want Hillary as the nominee.
Sep 30, '07
I think Dem candidates need to spend more time exposing the real Rudy, ...
But not yet. Wait till he gets, that is assuming he gets, the nomination. He has so many negatives and enemies he will be relatively easy to defeat. Only people who are blindly Republican and indifferent to the republic would vote for this man.
10:37 a.m.
Oct 1, '07
Res,
I seriously doubt it. Rudy was elected in a City that was awash in crime, graffiti, and had nearly experienced fiscal meltdown. The previous Democratic mayor, Ed Koch, was no flaming liberal. Ed Dinkins ran as a moderate African American candidate. The current mayor is middle of the road Bloomberg.
There is little basis to compare how NYC chose it's mayor and how Oregon will vote in the presidential contest.
The only way I can imagine that comparison being valid is if we have another major terrorist attack, at which point yes, I think Rudy's "I'll Kick Ass" campaign will resonate with Oregon voters.
Oct 1, '07
We have heard on Fox News that refrain that "what we really need is another good terrorist attack, like 9/11. Then maybe we can swing the political tide again." Well, that's pretty miserable stuff. Rudy's "I'll kick ass" means let's find another country to invade and get mired in, a few hundred thousand people to murder, another refugee catastrophe of millions of displaced, another some thousands of young American soldiers to kill and maim. Somehow going after Bin Laden and Al Qaeda just wasn't sexy enough and "doing Iraq" was a better testosterone outlet. The U.S. has been there and done that and I'm not so sure it translates so well any more.
A number of those who know Rudy have said he is George Bush on sterioids and seems to have an even more pathological megalomania drive. He is the spookiest of the Repug bunch in terms of the death and mayhem he would visit on the world.