Yet another House R bites the dust...
Today, Rep. Tom Butler (R-Ontario) became the sixth Republican member of the House to announce that he won't be coming back.
Butler and his wife, Darlene, are accountants who have long wanted to serve on a mission for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. The church is expanding rapidly in Latin America and needs auditing expertise, he said.Butler doesn't have a church assignment yet, so he may stay on for the month-long session in February. Democrats control the House 31 to 29. It's doubtful they can pick up Butler's eastern Oregon district, which is overwhelmingly Republican.
That makes it: Karen Minnis, Wayne Scott, Donna Nelson, John Dallum, Jerry Krummel, and Tom Butler. They can't recruit new candidates, they can't keep incumbents... how low can they go?
Discuss.
Update: It seems that we missed an earlier announcement by Brian Boquist, who says he won't be returning either. That's seven members of the House GOP that aren't comingback. (Thanks to commenter "Superwonk".) Looking back at the Oregonian's coverage (here and here), it seems that they're not counting Donna Nelson as fully out, despite her announcement on sine die.
Update: And now it seems that there's a Facebook group dedicated to watching the action. Check out the group "I'm sorry, I can't hear you over the sound of Republicans fleeing Salem".
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12:23 p.m.
Aug 6, '07
Yea, I remember they had a really small crowd at emerging leaders day. Estimates were something like 100 for the Dems and a dozen for the Repubs.
I wonder how much worse it's going to get for them. There have been rumors of other legislators not running again whose names aren't on that list.
I wouldn't be surprised to see more jump ship with Minnis and Scott leaving.
Aug 6, '07
Not so quickly there, Oregonian, Chuck Butcher, former Democratic candidate challenging Walden in '06, lives out there in Baker City, and would make an excellent nominee for this district.
He's a real salt-of-the-earth type, a true Eastern Oregonian who espouses Democratic ideals while couching them in terms that rural voters can relate to.
If he runs, the Republicans will have a real fight on their hands.
You listening, Chuck?
Aug 6, '07
I've heard rumors that an OR House Republican from the southern part of the state might not return...
Aug 6, '07
PLEASE oh please let it be Richardson from Central Point!
How many of the new openings are in competitive districts? Is the DPO organizing candidates there as well?
1:24 p.m.
Aug 6, '07
With the number of Republican incumbants not running again and Democrats jumping ship to run for other things, it will be interesting to see how new legislators there are from both parties in the next (full) session.
1:51 p.m.
Aug 6, '07
I would be very pleased to make a contribution to Chuck Butcher's campaign for that seat.
Aug 6, '07
Knowing how underhanded the Republican Party has been recently, is anyone else a bit concerned when so many are resigning in a short time frame? What do they have up their collective sleeves? Are they going to bar the doors and set the place on fire after they leave?
Just paranoid? I hope so.
Aug 6, '07
Perhaps we could drop in on Chuck and give him some friendly encouragement... judging from his website, it seems like he's still in the running for something or other...
chuckfor.blogspot.com
Aug 6, '07
Does anyone know where Merkley's at with fund raising since he announced?
Aug 6, '07
Not that it's all-inclusive, but you can view his ActBlue totals here: http://www.actblue.com/entity/fundraisers/18219
Keep in mind those are website donations only, other numbers won't be released until the end of the quarter with everyone else.
Aug 6, '07
As it seems to be okay to discuss Merkley here (he's a Representative who'll be giving up his seat too, right?), at least until Kari chimes in, I have to say I'm unimpressed with his Actblue totals.
He had about 100 contributors and $10,000 on the day he announced (and I was one, for the record, at an above-average amount), and since then, about 35 more contributors and $3000 more. Where's the love?
Aug 6, '07
The former Mayor of Baker City is a D and a great guy. He is an expert on rural health and would make a very strong legislator who could break the R's stranglehold on E. Or seats.
Aug 6, '07
EOReGon-Yun,
Good news, then, perhaps we'd even get a competitive primary! The more voices speaking out against the failure of Republican policies, the better.
Aug 6, '07
verasoie: I'm guessing most Merkley donors pitched in on day 1, so contributions haven't been spread evenly over the past week.
In the past week, by my math, Novick got about $9,000 from about 60 donors, while Merkley got about $14,000 from about 140 donors. A lot of Merkley's money is likely due to pent-up demand, though, so it's really not safe to do any comparison of pace for any fundraising at this point, I don't think. And besides, like Adrian said, ActBlue is hardly all-inclusive.
4:34 p.m.
Aug 6, '07
OK, people, stay on topic. This isn't a place to discuss the US Senate race. Take that to one of the many appropriate posts on this blog.
Aug 6, '07
Don't forget: Boquist is jumping ship too!
5:12 p.m.
Aug 6, '07
Superwonk -- Aha, you're right. It seems that the Oregonian is counting Boquist, but not counting Nelson.
5:31 p.m.
Aug 6, '07
So how many of those seats are likely Dem pick-ups?
Aug 6, '07
That makes a quarter of House Republicans gone now.
Do I hear 30%?
Aug 6, '07
For those solid red seats in the legislature where no Dem stands a snowball's chance in Bush's globally warmed world, is there any sense in approaching "moderate" (or even left of center??) Republicans. I come from Jackson County and i actually used to know cool R-types.
... back in the day
6:56 p.m.
Aug 6, '07
East Bank Thom:
That's something we'd discussed at Bus Project meetings before -- in areas where a Dem is absolutely not going to win, work to find and support a moderate Republican who is willing to work with the Dems. Someone who's not just going to follow blindly behind caucus leadership. That's been hard, because Minnis and Scott would find someone to run against you in the primary if you did such a thing. So Republicans were pretty much lock-step with their caucus.
Now that Minnis and Scott are gone, maybe we can finally see the chance of a moderate R having a place in the legislature again.
Aug 6, '07
Lestatdelc, I crunched the numbers (PDF) and came up with this list of vacating reps and their districts' partisan registrations, ordered by most Dem-friendly.
So I'd say Butcher would have quite a race on his hands, verasoie.
Aug 6, '07
Folks, maybe I could do some good in Salem and less maybe I could win in HD60 but here's what it means; I work for a living and if I don't bang nails there is no money and Salem pays just enough to wreck me financially. No, I am not running for anything; the blog title just stayed when campaign ended because some people liked it and that kept the address the same.
I'm real flattered that some of you think it's a swell idea, and I'm not real happy to disappoint but there it is. About 2 years ago I promoted the idea of putting legislators pay on the HUD schedule of OR median income family of 4 with the idea of taking the legislature back into the hands of the citizens rather than the retired, the wealthy, the well-to-do private contractor (lawyers, accountants, etc). That pay scale might make it possible because the reality is most people would lose their jobs or their business by serving.
Thanks for the compliments Chuck
11:43 p.m.
Aug 6, '07
Exploratory Committee For Sale--Barely Used, Like New Purrs Like a Carpenter
email [email protected]
:(
11:58 p.m.
Aug 6, '07
Damn, and now there's a Facebook group!
<h2>It's called: "I'm sorry, I can't hear you over the sound of Republicans fleeing Salem"</h2>