Up Chuck Schumer is pretty happy.

Democrats have a candidate (Jeff Merkley).that can make the OR US Senate Race competitive in a neutral year and possible defeat the Republican incumbent Gordon Smith in a upset.

Steve Novick lacks electoral experience- He will have a tough time unseating Smith unless their is a big Democratic wave- The big question with Novick is can he win in neutral environment. Because 2008 is going to be a great year for Democrats- A Smith defeat is likely to occur.

I like this line: "While still in grade school, my dad got a job as a heavy equipment mechanic in Portland." That's one hell of a dad! Too bad today's grade schoolers lack that kind of work ethic.

Well...this should be interesting. I hope the party unites around this guy. Novick is not electable for a US Senate seat. Merkely might be, although it's going to be an uphill battle. This election was a near automatic win for Kitzhaber. I just don't understand his reluctance.

Oh well. If we don't win we can do a lot worse that having Gordy in Washington for another 6 years. He's more moderate than most Repubs and will take care of Oregon's interests for the most part.

Good luck Jeff!!! Campaign hard and keep an eye out for rogue swift boats. The Gresham Dems are behind you!

Now that Merkley is running for U.S. Senate, the next local question is who will MultCo Dems nominate for his replacement in House D47, and of those, who will the MultCo commissioners select?

Is this the chance of a lifetime for Jesse Cornett? Who else lives out there in that East Portland district?

• Wes

I think Novick wins this primary easily.

I have a feeling that Kitzhaber does not like the Washington DC environment. In 2002- Gordon Smith's first re-election campaign. Kitzhaber- who then was a popular outgoing two term Governor decided not to challenge a freshman US Senator that was narrowly elected a first time against a political novice- Tom Bruggere.

looking at the OR US House Delegation. DeFazio and Bluemanaur are credible statewide candidates. I doubt Wu can win and Hooley is too old to run for a competitive campaign. DeFazio could have ran in 1996 when it was an open seat. and 2002. Bluemenaur could have ran in 2002.

The statewide elected officials like Bill Bradbury and Randall Edwards are more interested in running for Governor in 2010.

Looking at state legislators that unseated incumbent US Senators. 1)John Tester(MT) 2)Russ Feingold(WI)

I'd be stunned if Novick beat Merkley. If he did then Smith is a lock to win another term. Can we really be that stupid?

Jeff better get ready for a good old fashion street fight. He needs to wage a rugged "anything goes" campaign against Novick. Scratch and claw like hell!

I'm getting exctited! This is like the Dem primaries in the 60's before everyone decided they had to play nice and the result was to nominate the nicest, caring, warm and fuzzy candidate to run against a not too nice Republican.

That sometimes brought UGLY results in November.

Time to get downright mean and aggressive Jeff! Take Novick on like there's no tomorrow and you'll also have any other potential candidates settling for Oregon legislature seats.

<quote>I think Novick wins this primary easily.</quote>

HAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHA !!!

!!!!!1111!!!

HAHAHAHAHAHA

No, but seriously, Merkley has already raised $6200 on ActBlue in two hours ( http://www.actblue.com/entity/fundraisers/18219 ). Novick is in for a fight (if he even stays in).

Would it be fair at this point to identify Merkley with the "centrist" branch of the Dems, and to identify Novick with the "liberal" branch of the Dems?

This is not a troll, I am just asking. I think I saw something earlier that Merkley was recruited by Schumer / DSCC. I assume that indicates Merkley is more centrist. However, I don't know much about Novick other than his history as a litigator on some environmental cases, which may or may not indicate his political leanings.

I think Jeff and Steve will be great to watch run against Gordo. At the very least, no matter who wins this one, the issues are gonna be discussed and Oregonians will hear in detail the truth of who Smith is.

It's gonna be a heck of a fight! Hopefully the slamming (verbal taunts) of Merkley and Novick will stay on this site and not in debate and the general public (ie. those who see daylight).

My earlier comment on upchuck Schumer/DSCC supporting Merkley has nothing to do with ideology. Merkley could have a progressive ideology like Novick. But the rational for supporting Merkley is that Merkley has electoral experience. Merkley is less likely to be a loose cannon. see Dean scream in 2004.

Steph!

I don't think the electability issue is an illusion. Novick has never been elected to anything in his life except maybe some HS student government position.

Merkley has been elected to the Oregon legislature and has proven to be an energetic campaigner.

Sigh....I still think we'd be better off with Kitz running, but you go to war with what you have.

Hmmmmmm....that phrase sounds familiar.

As much as I like and respect Jeff Merkley, I'm disappointed that he has decided to abandon the Oregon House in favor of a questionable run against Gordon Smith.

If he had stayed where he is, the Ds would have had a great chance to build on their majority, and with it the ability to move major policy issues the Repubs have been able to stop until now. With Merkley's departure, coupled with the likely exit of several others attempting to move to the Oregon Senate, the House majority is again in question. The work of regaining the majority in the House is not done until the Ds can move their major initiatives (let us not forget the Repubs ability to stop bills like enactment of Healthy Kids and the corporate minimum). The House Ds need continuity in their leadership to not only retain their slim majority, but build on it as they must.

I am also disappointed because I am a huge fan of Steve Novick and his candidacy. It will take someone like Steve to beat Smith - someone different. The things that make Steve different from the standard cookie-cutter candidate, are exactly the things that we need if our candidate is going to beat Smith. He speaks truth to power in ways that people understand and support, and he represents real change.

The next election will be about real change, or it will be about no change - not about doing it just a little better. Our candidate must be very different from Smith if we hope voters will abandon him. Why should voters that will never take the time to see the real differences between them, choose Merkley over Smith? They look the same, they will talk the same, and you can bet Smith will do everything he can to act the same during the next 15 months. In a state like Oregon, the simple fact that he is a Republican that until recently supported the President, is not enough to unseat him.

Novick's brilliance is the perfect foil to Smith's manufactured persona, and voters will look beyond Novick's obvious "shortcomings" if we can convince them to reach for a return to integrity and government of the people. If not, we get Smith.

It takes nothing away from Merkley for me to say that if we really want the world to be a better place and we think our national government should represent our values, it is the time to abandon our conventional and cautious approach to politics and support candidates like Steve Novick.

Our future would be brighter with Jeff Merkley as Speaker of the Oregon House, and Steve Novick in the U.S. Senate.

Jesse:

I believe discussing Merkley's likely House replacement is not so far off topic to be taboo in this thread. Jeff's U.S. Senate candidacy will not occur in a vaccum; it has repercussions for Oregon Democrats, including those in his House district and beyond.

My earlier reference to the MultCo commissioners was based on my assumption that Jeff will resign and pave the way for an appointee to have a leg up on any chalengers, within and without the party.

I also realize that is a delicate topic with discussions behind several sets of closed doors. I would be stunned that Jeff, his crew and MultCo Dem's have not considered his likely replacement. Or maybe they don't want to favor one person over another and let them duke it out in a May 2008 primary, knowing the winner will take the Democratic district in November.

Yes, this thread is about Jeff Merkley's announcement of his new candidacy - which will start several dominoes tumbling.

• Wes

Of all the candidates in the race or talked about for the race, only one has been to Crook County to meet with local Democrats.

And now he's in the race - good job Jeff!

Besides such a display of wisdom, I think Jeff will make a great US Senator.

yeah, but isn't Merkley an atheist?

jus kidding - welcome aboard, Jeff! Best of luck!

Yay Democrats - we have real primaries in this state now!

I hate Presidential election years, usually, because by the time they get to us we have nothing left to vote for, really. This year we will!

I'm also very happy to hear that Merkley is going to run. I know I've said it before, but in my corner of Washington County I think he has a really good shot at pulling big numbers against Smith - should he get that opportunity.

Italics off.

Maybe?

As a Novick supporter, I'm pretty stunned by the vitriol already being expressed by some on this board. Please, support your candidate, be passionate, but let's leave the abuse out of it.

Stephanie V. raises a good point about electability. Unlike most around here, I don't think Smith is easily beatable. I think he is a moderate on a lot of issues, and his stand on the war reflects the evolving position of a majority of Americans.

Even given that, it's still not contradictory to say that Oregon and the country would be better off if Smith was replaced by a Democrat. So who will be able to replace a strong incumbent? A "traditional" candidate like Merkley, or a maverick candidate like Novick? It's a little counterintuitive, but if you start from the position that Smith is weak, then Merkley's probably your guy. But if you start from the position that Smith is still an odd-on favorite to win reelection, then it will take someone different -- someone like Novick -- to unseat him.

Either way, both will be stronger having faced off in the primary.

Smith likely is unbeatable unless something very bizarre happens, such as a major scandal involving him, which I don't expect.

Typical newspaper pablum. Safe. High weasel-word content. BORING. And wrong.

pdxskip said:

Time to get downright mean and aggressive Jeff! Take Novick on like there's no tomorrow and you'll also have any other potential candidates settling for Oregon legislature seats.

Wrong. People don't like negative campaigning. It makes sense (from an amoral perspective) if you can put a dent in your opponent's numbers larger that the dent you put in your own, but by going negative in a primary, especially against someone like Steve, you'll turn off voters without hitting the real target (Gordo) at all.

I sure hope Jeff takes Steve up on the offer to tour the state together. Let's get some bands on the bill, too -- make it a party!

then pdxskip said:

Oh well. If we don't win we can do a lot worse that having Gordy in Washington for another 6 years. He's more moderate than most Repubs and will take care of Oregon's interests for the most part.

and Neal Patel said:

Merkley is less likely to be a loose cannon. see Dean scream in 2004.

Seriously, guys, what's up with parroting right-wing talking points?

John D,

You're very welcome, I'm very excited by Merkley's candidacy and equally committed to helping elect him with lots of on-the-ground canvassing. Back in 2004, I and 2 friend personally registered 1100 new Kerry voters in the PDX burbs, and know that we can duplicate that effort and moreso this time. In a word, low-income, suburban apartment complexes are a goldmine of voters sympathetic with Democratic causes/candidates, and they often are not registered to vote because they move so often. I would not suggest starting until the summer before the election because of the likelihood that so many will move again, even waiting until the fall is better, and toss that registration list out the window.

Smith is going down in the Portland suburbs, to Merkley or Novick!

We finally got ourselves a primary!

There's no doubt that whoever comes out of this primary on top is going to have a legitimate shot at defeating Gordon Smith. Let's be thankful we have a competitive primary to increase the name ID of all those involved.

What a beautiful day. I am looking out my office window down at the river. The reflections of the buildings on the water are fantastic. I want to be there.

Back to the topic. I would like to give money to the most liberal candidate. I would like to do that in the next half hour. Who is it?

All the above talk about "two wonderful candidates" is starting to turn my stomach. Politics is about winning, not playing nice. Candidates who play nice in the primary get kicked in the ass in the general election.

Thanks,

BN

Jesse Cornett says: One more thing... I think the best suited person to win Merkley's seat is Jefferson Smith. I have encouraged him to run, think he will run, and hope that he does.

I'm confused.

I heard that Jefferson Smith just recently moved out of his family's Irvington home into Jackie Dingfelder's district to make a bid for her seat. If he's gonna get interested in Merkley's district, doesn't that mean he'll have to move again?

Bluenote,

Even as a meager student, I gave $200 to Merkley this morning because I believe he has the best chance to beat Smith, and I am happy with his liberal credentials (with all due respect to Novick, whom I do respect).

This is coming from someone who so far has resisted registering as a Dem because I didn't find that the party represented my interests well enough (I'm more of a pragmatic Green politically), despite being a loyal voter and supporter of them. This year I finally have reason to register with a competitive primary, and am looking forward to it.

I am a big Novick fan but am really excited about the news today. This is going to be a great primary!

This one really looks like a potential winner to me. I'm very impressed with his resume and he's got the look of a senator, too (sadly, that matters). Smith can't be too happy about this announcement.

I see some commenters here referring to Gordon Smith as "Gordo." Which, in Spanish, means "Fatty" when applied to a person.

Since he really hasn't gained all that much weight in recent years -- I mean, good Senator or not, the man is still pretty thin -- I propose that we at least refer to him as "Gordito." The diminutive spanish version of "Gordo" translates literally as "Little Fatty" and is probably a better match for both his physical figure and his character.

Agreed?

Otherwise, the Latino vote might get confused as to why we call a rather thin sitting Senator "Fatty." All kinds of potential excuses could come to mind... let's just put it to rest.

Gordito!!

May his last year and a half in office not find him slipping into a state that causes the tag "Gordo" to actually become applicable...

This is a candidate that many will probably find easier to throw their support behind. I will so like to see him debate Smith.

With regard to the comment about the ActBlue page for Merkley, it is pretty impressive if he generated that many donors in such a short time.

Now that Merkley is running for U.S. Senate...

Correction: That should read "Now that Merkley is running for the opportunity to run for the senate."

The people who will decide the next election for U.S. Senate are not the people who follow politics as closely as posters on a political blog. And most of those "swing voters" don't know Jeff Merkley from Deputy Dawg.

I think it's great that he's joined the race, but don't kid yourself about his superior electibility. This is a wide-open Democratic primary and the person who works the hardest and communicates the best will win. Personally, I think Novick has a more compelling story and may be the change people are looking for.

A pragmatic Green, since you ask, is a progressive who works to return the Democrats to their progressive roots and away from DLC-dominated, Republican-lite policies that characterized much of the party during the 90s and onward (to its significant electoral detriment).

For the first time since I've been in Oregon (since 2000), I actually have a reason to register as a Democrat, with the highly laudable privilege of being able to choose between two progressive candidates for the party's nomination.

I'm all for putting as many Democrats into office as possible, however, I just wanted to say that Sen Smith has has made me proud this last year, he was one of the first Republicans to split with his party, he's spoken out and I feel that he has done a B- job on reflecting Oregonians attitudes about the war.I've seen a few Democrats in red states do less than Smith has and although I never voted for him I feel he hasn't totally ignored his constituents. That being said, with a good Democrat in office it should be even better, since Smiths record on the environment (Klamath) and big business is a solid F.

Mike....Pleaaassse

Somewhere up the line a guy named Mike said something like...."Gordon made me proud" due to his change on the war. Wow...we have some educating to do here.

I think another person up the line made the best case showing that the moment Gordooon had made his pretty speech he was on Lars saying something that was 180 from that speech.

Mike..and any other D's who are inclined to think this way....you are soooo being played by this guy. Wake UP!

Gordoon will say anything and do anything to keep power. That is who he really is. He does not care one wit about the war or taxes (ok maybe he cares about those as they directly effect him) He will dance and boob and weave until the vegetables come in. I do not want to get personnel here. I am told Gordoon is a "nice guy." But, so is BUSH. We just cannot have someone like this represent this state at this time.

SendMrSmithhome!

For the commentator above who managed to be proud of Gordon Smith, it appears you must have been asleep in October 2002 when Smith voted to give Bush authority to wage war on Iraq. This was immediately after Senator Byrd, the recognized authority in the Senate on the Constitution, advised his fellow senators that they would not be living up to their Constitutional responsibilities if they gave Bush this authority. In case you just woke up, in the interim more than 3,600 American military personnel have died in Iraq, close to 30,000 have been wounded and who knows how many have returned suffering from PTSD. Of this last group, how many haven't been able to take it any more? In the case of Iraqis a reliable estimate several months ago had 300,000 to 900,000 Iraqis dead because of the war, God/Allah knows how many maimed, and the latest estimates have between 2 and 4 million becoming refugees. Oxfam just put out a horrific estimate of the number of children suffering from malnutrition. What is there about an accomplice to that that makes you proud?

Now this makes a lot more sense to me now. Mike...do not be ashamed at your comment. Many many Oregonians have been taken in by this act. That is all it is...an act to try to keep power. We just have to get the word out not to be fooled AGAIN.

Stephanie V. I could not agree more. But then again I said that I was not going to get personal. Its part of his ACT and he plays it very well.

Finally, as I have been posting here and shooting my keyboarding off...I am NOT connected with any candidate or party or current office holder or government position or lobbying organization or anything else. I am the most dangerous of people an independent business person who no one owns who is on a mission. You have to love America.

<h2>Oregonrain</h2>