Leadership, not Followership
Michelle Neumann
As usual, Steve Novick finds exactly the right words to describe Gordon Smith's public turn-around on Iraq:
"I don't think you give any politician too much credit for courage for adopting a position that's shared by 70 percent of the electorate. Mark Hatfield opposed the Vietnam war when it was still popular. Gordon Smith is no Mark Hatfield. People expect leadership from Senators. Not followership."
Colin Fogarty's OPB article linked above makes the point that Smith's apparent change of heart on the war may appeal to independent voters. But Oregon State University political scientist Bill Lunch notes that, "Smith's challenge is to prove that his new position is real…It is possible to be done. It is not an easy thing to pull off."
No article about Smith and Novick would be complete without a predictable swipe at Novick, which Fogarty takes. However, Fogarty gets one in against Smith as well - the audio version of the story is called Oregon Senator Bends with the Winds of War. Not exactly a complimentary headline.
Weeks before the November 2004 election, Gordon Smith used what he thought were exactly the right words to criticize presidential candidate, decorated war veteran and fellow Senator John Kerry:
It is amazing, interesting, that we have in Senator Kerry a decorated Vietnam veteran, and yet we have in Senator Kerry a man who now is falling in the polls who faces tonight an opportunity to clarify for the American people his position on Iraq. With plummeting poll numbers, it has to be asked, why has his fortunes as a war hero and veteran been so reversed?I find the answer in the Good Book in a verse where Paul says:
For if the trumpet give an uncertain sound, who shall prepare himself to the battle?
...I cannot imagine a more uncertain sound than Senator Kerry.
...
So if the trumpet gives an uncertain sound, no one will prepare to battle, and that, I believe, is the reason for Senator Kerry's plummeting in the opinion polls of the United States.
I yield the floor.
I think I may have identified a more uncertain sound. It's coming from the junior Senator from Oregon with the plummeting poll numbers.
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Jul 17, '07
Yes, I contributed to Steve's campaign.
Jul 17, '07
Could you explain the swipe at Novick, for those of us who won't listen to the broadcast?
Jul 17, '07
Just the usual about Novick not being a top-tier candidate - the Democats are "still trying to recruit someone..."
11:52 p.m.
Jul 17, '07
the audio segment is only somewhere between 4 - 5 minutes long, and worth a listen i think.
Jul 18, '07
Yes, I contributed to Steve's campaign.
Thanks for letting us know you have a dog in the fight.
My professor Bill Lunch points out that It is possible for a candidate to persuade voters that they seriously and in a sincere way have changed their view and they ought to be evaluated on their new view, not their old view.
Weather or not you want to admit it, I suspect the fact that Senator Smith has changed his position to be consistent with the majority of Oregonians will impact his campaign in a positive way. In the end, weather he lead or followed may not matter, just so long as he did. Many may be satisfied that he broke ranks with his party and the President to do the right thing. And, I also suspect he will probably showcase that during his campaign.
In the past, Independents and moderates have been content with the Smith-Wyden/Wyden-Smith balancing act, if you can call it that. With Senator Smith changing his position on the war, I see the majority of Oregonians, including moderate Democrats observing Smith's change in his position on the war as genuine. Those that despise Smith and Republicans alike are not going to be swayed either way—they want him out regardless what he does.
The real challenge for the DPO is to power behind a candidate that can move the Independents and Moderate D’s and R’s away from Smith.
Jul 18, '07
Is Smith voting against the quorum calls tonight? I'm not sure I'm understanding all of the procedures, but it seems if he supports the legislation, he would be voting with the Democrats on the quorum calls.
Jul 18, '07
Erik,
Good point. I disagree with you that his campaign will be impacted in a positive way. We have a Senator who literally sucks. He'll say whatever it takes to get reelected. Oregonians can recognize this and can get that message out even with the Oregonian editorial board saying something completely different. We have 2 (in my mind) slam dunk candidates (Kitz, and Difazio...and maybe Hooley, Wu or Blumenauer) but not a single one will step up to serve Oregon like they could. Blumenauer and Difazio are content to stick to their safe House seats and Kitz doesn't have the heart. I don't fault Kitz...I'd love to sit back and rest on my laurels too. Blumenauer or Difazio should have stepped up. Their loss. They have relegated themselves to the House for their careers and I would have loved to see either in the Senate. Hopefully we get a name in the race. I'll throw everything I've got behind Novick if he's the only one to have the guts to take on Gordo though. He's a great candidate and I just wish he had a elected history because he's probably smarter than 98% of people who do run for office.
Jul 18, '07
Garrett,
I suspect you'll have an embarrassment of options to choose from soon, not just Novick, but I mostly wanted to defend Kitz, he believes he can lead in Oregon in a capacity that is not possible in the Senate. I've spoken with him recently about it and tried to convince him otherwise until I was blue in the face, but his heart is in the right spot, he believes that with the logjam in DC he can only help effect progressive change in Oregon (and the US) at the state level. Which'll ultimately lead to him running for (and winning) Governor again in 2010. Until then, long live Novick and his band of merry men who accompany him in challenging Smith.
Jul 18, '07
http://www.blueoregon.com/2007/07/want-a-paid-fel.html
I saw him vote earlier "no" (with the majority of the Repub minority), "no" to ending the filibuster, "no" to allowing an up or down vote on the the amendment to begin the redeployment of our troops out of the 130 degree uncivil war which is Bush's Baghdad debacle.
Hillary has the floor now, 4:30am EST.
Jul 18, '07
Mark Hatfield opposed the Vietnam war when it was still popular. Gordon Smith is no Mark Hatfield.
Senator Hatfield also got the Winter Soldier Investigation testimonies into the Congressional record.
Jul 18, '07
I think I am going to be sick watching this vote in the Senate this morning. The "up or down" vote Republicans will filibuster every important bill in the Senate for the sole purpose of partisan spite, and if any bills manage to pass, Bush will veto because of partisan spite. Is that democracy, after the people made it clear, last November and otherwise, what they want?
Jul 18, '07
Not to hijack the thread but Garret's comment about Defazio ties in with the ever-growing impeachment thread. I like Defazio and I think he runs his tail off to get around the district, but I think he may be getting too comfortable in the house. Placing "political calculus", as someone said, over duty.
1:33 p.m.
Jul 18, '07
IN the end Smith voted with the Democrats this morning to give the withdrawal amendment an up-or-down vote. The Dems needed 60 to end debate and vote, and only came up with 53. Smith along with three other Republicans voted with the Dems.
Smith is doing his best to burnish his fake "moderate" creds and this will in fact help him blunt a lot of criticism towards him over the war for low-info voters. Erik Sorensen is all too correct I am afraid on how this vote to break the filibuster will help Smith out. How much and to what extent with swing voters remains to be seen.
Jul 18, '07
I am afraid ... how this vote to break the filibuster will help Smith out.
Couráge Lestat. Fool me once... I fully expect Smith to use such parlor tricks to dupe his previous supporters, and certainly some of those wavering will be impressed enough with Oregon's "independent" senator and vote to keep him. I can already envision his ad campaign. But some of his support is irrevocably lost.
5:45 p.m.
Jul 18, '07
RE: "Smith voted with the Democrats this morning to give the withdrawal amendment an up-or-down vote."
I know from personal experience with Gordon Smith that he will spin this with his buddies. He will say "I knew that my vote would not contribute to success for the Democrats and I needed to give moderate Oregonians the impression that I'm with them on the war." He always says that his vote wouldn't have made the difference.
9:29 p.m.
Jul 18, '07
I think East Bank Thom's use of the term "parlor tricks" is right on. We know who Gordon Smith is, and he can't run from his record. We can expect to see more of them, and i'm hoping that the Oregon electorate is smart enough to see through him.
Jul 19, '07
My fear is what fodder for negative ads Smith's opponent will bring. I'm already dreading the election season, because as Smith gets more desperate, the mud is going to fly.
Jul 19, '07