Me thinks this spells the end for Gordo...

Gordon Smith will be defeated next year; by which candidate remains to be seen. In the meantime, I'm thrilled to see the prospect of two great candidates making the case against Smith. I also see this as a validation of the central argument Novick's been making since January.

I have to say I am a bit disappointed. I really hoped he would stay in the state house. We still have several more seats we need to take so we can reach 36. And two of the districts we can do it in are right next door to Merkley's (HD 49 and 50).

Many of the Portland-area legislators who are usually active in recruiting and helping candidates are either leaving or are running for other offices. This could mean they're too busy to help out before the primary is over. And a candidate needs to be ramped up, doing fundraising and events and such well before the primary happens, even if they are the only candidate.

Yes, it was great what we got done this year in session, but that was only the start. And now some of the leaders are leaving for other positions.

I have to say this has me worried about getting to 36.

Merkley won in 2006 with around 64% of the vote. But there was a considerable amount of work done out there - canvassing, letters to voters, etc. Hopefully a really good D candidate, or multiple candidates, will step forward for Merkley's seat. I seem to remember some people and elected officials from Parkrose being at the Emerging Leaders Day. Maybe they're considering running.

I'm just worried about switching so many of our leaders when we've just begun the job. And I'm sure I'm not the only one. I don't want to win the U.S. Senate seat at the expense of our state legislature. Much of the day to day problems and needs we have are served at the state and local level -- losing them to Republicans hurts us much more directly.

Disclaimer: I do the web site for Novick for Senate, but I speak for only myself -- not the campaign.

Well, like I've said in the past, I'm a Novick supporter. So to me, the question of "who" has already been answered.

And as much as I'd like to see a competitive primary because it means increased name recognition for the eventual nominee, I am worried about what would happen with the state legislature.

And in the Democratic districts in Portland, a competitive primary isn't going to do a lot. We're already likely to see a good turnout in those districts because the city of Portland will be having some competitive races in the primary. In many of these districts, the races are over in May.

However, that's the primary. And where we need to beat Smith and the GOP presidential nominee is in the general. It's also when we need to beat Republicans in enough seats to hit 36+.

Where we need the publicity and involvement isn't in those safe districts -- it is in the districts across the state that are close and we could win in 2008.

Usually between the time that the session is over and the primary deadline is used to locate and support candidates for seats around the state. If those who normally do that are busy running for State Senate, Secretary of State, Attorney General, U.S. Senate, etc. (or leaving politics), that means less experienced people to help new candidates. Those running in the safe districts in Portland will be so busy on their own competitive primaries that they won't have time to help other districts, which is something the legislators representing those districts had done previously.

Like I said, I'm worried. I'm not saying that the sky is going to fall - I'm just worried that we may be setting up a situation where it could happen. And having spoken with many long-time Dem volunteers and supporters in the past few weeks, I know I'm not alone. This is a theme that has come up over and over again, especially in areas like mine where we have a Republican legislator in districts with more Dems than Repubs.

Having worked with many state legislative candidates in the past several years, I know how important that help is from current legislators -- and now there will be even fewer available.

Disclaimer: I do the web site for Novick for Senate, but I speak for only myself -- not the campaign.

FYI, I've just updated this post with a link and quote from Swing State Project.

National Democrats, who say Smith is one of their top three or four targets in 2008, have pledged to Merkley that he'll be "financially competitive," and will likely pay for television ads to be in heavy rotation.

Thank God! Lord knows we don't have enough crappy, dumbed-down, 30-second --or is that 20 second?-- sound bites to spread the Good Word!

The advantage Merkley has over Novick is name recognition.

You've got to be kidding. And after watching Merkley's tepid performance on Nick Fish...I think the "hook" is far more memorable and exploitable. And, like my produce and wine, I prefer home-grown to having someone in DC telling me what's best for me.

The advantage Merkley has over Novick is name recognition. Being a speaker of the Oregon State House. He is well known statewide. Unlike Novick who has not held any elected office.

I also find this statement laughable. When I mention Jeff Merkley's name to people, the response is usually, "Jeff who?" I usually have to add, "the current Oregon Speaker of the House." Even then, they identify the office, and not the holder.

Novick's been building name recognition over the last several months, and his story is a lot more compelling than Merkley's, and I think it has something in it that appeals to Oregonians. We'll see, of course, as the primary approaches.

I also think Novick having never held elected office before, yet being a very experienced campaigner, and well acquainted with the Oregon political landscape, is going to help him, rather than hinder him. It's going to be 2008, and people are going to be looking for something "different." As Steve says, he is "someone different."

We are in for an extraordinary tough election to beat Gordon Smith.We will need every possible voter out helping to defeat Smith. Whom ever wins the Democratic primary we must jump behind the winner and unite to beat Gordon Smith. What ever we do we cannot allow a primary election to divide us. The Iraq War is Smith's legacy. Defeat Gordon Smith!

paulie,

A contested primary isn't necessarily bad for the eventual nominee. As long as things stay generally positive, having two potential candidates pointing out what a craptacular job Gordon Smith has done as a US Senator is actually a good thing.

There will be more media coverage, more highlighting of differences between the Democrats running and Smith, and more energy the Smith campaign will have to expend to counter their opponent(s).

We don't have to divide the party to have a primary. Primaries can make the eventual nominee stronger, and a better campaigner with better name recognition.

Well, this is all very cool news. I had really hoped he'd decide to run--for the Dems' sake, not just Merkley's. But I also think he will make a great Senator.

One and done for Jeff?

Well, he's been toiling away in the State Legislature for 9 years--isn't that respectable service? I do agree with Jenni and others that it is a shame to lose a talented guy like this, but I don't see how Merkley's skills don't do more for the state as a Senator.

And I also agree with Colin about the need for a robust primary. If we had a very well-known candidate, it might be better to have an easy primary. But in this case it will advantage the Dems to have a little excitement in the lead-up to defeating Smith. I would bet my bottom dollar that the winner will immediately get the support of his primary foe. Both men understand that the goal is to beat Smith.

Here's a little thought experiment for the Novick fans. If he is going to be the candidate against Smith, will he be stronger or weaker by virtue of defeating a strong candidate in Jeff Merkley? Clearly, the excitement he would need to generate to beat Merkley would give him far greater credibility and momentum going into the general.

I'm still going to throw my support behind Merkley, but this is good news for Steve, too.

Regarding the passing of the torch of house leadership, we're looking at Peter Buckley, Chip Shields, maybe Mary Nolan, and a couple of others.

Buckley, of course was real active in the early going of DFO, and both Shields and Nolan, although Portland based are both people that get the bigger picture stuff. With Hunt and McPherson looking over their shoulders, I'm cautiously optimistic that these guys can reconstitute a decent machine without Jeff at the helm.

Here's a little thought experiment for the Novick fans. If he is going to be the candidate against Smith, will he be stronger or weaker by virtue of defeating a strong candidate in Jeff Merkley? Clearly, the excitement he would need to generate to beat Merkley would give him far greater credibility and momentum going into the general.

Fully agreed--Steve will benefit from the challenge, and raise his profile in the process.

Two nagging problems I have with Merkley throwing his hat in the ring (presumably that is).

First, and this one is totally selfish, and that i want Jeff to stay in the House as speaker because of the great work he has done this past session. If the Dems do land the 36 seats they need to have the votes to rework our tax code, that is a once in a generation chance to make huge and sorely needed changes that would alter the face of Oregon for the better for decades to come. We are operating on outmoded and failing tax code policy which, when coupled with Measure 11 back in the later part of the 20th century, have wrecked havoc on core programs. From state trooper funding, to school funding.. you name it. That 36 seat number though touches on what Jenni talks about, but form the other direction. I don't think that Merkley running for Senate is what kneecaps the 36 seat goal (which would require running the table basically) but the other way around. I suspect that the outside chance of getting those 36 seats is what is driving Merkley to likely run for Senate. It would mean running the table next year and that is an outside chance at best.

The second reason I have trepidation about Merkley being courted so heavily by the DSCC is, that rumored $5 million comes with PLENTY of strings attached. "Here's your $5 million Jeff, less this chunk of it for ad buys we will control, from media buys we book, running ads THIS D.C. based firm puts together..." etc.

While the lauded financial support from D.C. sounds great in the courtship phase, and if you don't actually look at what goes on, the devil is always in the details. There is more strings attached to that $5 mill from the DSCC than a crack-laden condensed version of all three Spiderman movies cobbled together.

Lestat... There's been a heckuva lotta chatter about the millions that the DSCC will "give" to various potential candidates. In part, the story was given a public boost by Peter DeFazio, when they were courting him.

There's only one critical detail: The DSCC can donate only $38,000 directly to any Senate campaign.

It's true that the DSCC can donate money to the state party for party-building purposes, voter registration, and get-out-the-vote efforts. And it's also true that the DSCC can conduct an independent advertising campaign.

But that money will never be under the direct control of the US Senate campaign. If it were, it'd be a violation of federal law.

(And yeah, I know that this doesn't completely refute your point -- candidates are usually grateful for outside efforts made on their behalf -- but it's not quite as cut-and-dried as your concerns seem to indicate.)

Kari, would it be fair to say DSCC makes the money available in one form or another, directly and indirectly aimed at giving the candidate the resources and support to win? (And more pointedly in the primary, do they go further than simply making money available, and prevent money from coming available for other people?)

I think so.

Yeah, the money can be spent independently or donated to the party... but don't expect to see a multi-million dollar donation to the Merkley, Novick, or any other campaign.

(As for your parenthetical, I think we covered that in exhaustive detail on the earlier thread.)