Ted Kulongoski: Punditologist-in-Chief

Ted Kulongoski mused aloud to the Oregonian's Harry Esteve about the 2006 campaign against Senator Gordon Smith -- and the 2010 race for Governor.

First, on Gordon Smith:

Watch, Kulongoski says, for more people to come out of the woodwork to run against Sen. Gordon Smith, R-Ore. Mrs. Smith may as well buy one of those T-shirts with an arrow that says "I'm with Vulnerable."

"I don't think the field is full yet," Kulongoski says. "Some people in this building are going to get into the race." ...

And they might not all be Democrats, Kulongoski says. The media have overlooked Smith's steady fall from grace in his own party, where bedrock conservatives stew over his stands on the Iraq war and immigration.

As for the 2010 race for Governor, Kulongoski pointed out the open seats for Secretary of State and State Treasurer - and the likely-open Attorney General spot - as possible stepping stones:

The alpha dog races next year are U.S. Senate, secretary of state, state treasurer and attorney general. But one Capitol insider says those are just the prelude to a bigger enchilada

"You have to look past 2008 to 2010" and what will be a wide-open barnburner of a governor's race, the insider says. "Look at that as the ultimate prize."

He should know. The insider is Gov. Ted Kulongoski, who has run for about half the offices in Oregon.

Esteve goes further and names some names:

Treasurer Randall Edwards will vacate the seat because of term limits. He, too, has been mentioned as a potential U.S. Senate candidate, but word is his wife and three children want to see more of him and have no plans to move to D.C.

Sen. Alan C.Bates, D-Ashland, another lawmaker who has that hungry look of someone ready to move up, has said he's considering a run at Smith. Rep. Greg Macpherson, D-Lake Oswego is eyeing the attorney general's office if the current occupant, Hardy Myers, does what most expect and retires.

Senate President Peter Courtney, D-Salem, Senate Majority Leader Kate Brown, D-Portland and House Speaker Jeff Merkley, D-Portland, all make the list of players in what promises to be an extensive shakeup of state politics during the next four years.

But what about Republicans? The Punditologist-in-Chief has a few in mind:

"The guy you want to watch is Jason Atkinson," Kulongoski says, referring to the Jackson County Republican who ran in last year's gubernatorial primary, and who has been voting for green energy and firefighter benefits lately. Others to watch include U.S. Rep. Greg Walden, who many expect to run for governor in 2010, and state prisons director Max Williams, who could take a shot at the attorney general's office.

Discuss.