Novick is percieved as a bomb thrower. While I welcome Eileen Brady to politics, what experieince and resume does she bring to what will be a formidible challenge?

can someone tell me why the DSCC isn't pushing for Novick?

probably not pushing for brady either.

elected official, former candidate for statewide office, or multimillionaire. that's what it takes to defeat an incumbent senator.

anybody come up with a counter-example yet? (besides wayne morse in 1942?)

Jim Webb (VA) last year, had never been an elected official before. Granted he'd been secretary of the Navy but the US Senate was his first elective office. Frankly, when people feel like they do right now, that DC is not working well, they tend to elect outsiders. Still, I do hope Bates runs

oh right. left out the last piece of my earlier challenge -- senate-confirmed presidential appointees don't count either.

in short, has a "nobody" without money ever defeated an incumbent senator?

(no offense to steve novick but from the public's standpoint, he's a "nobody".)

First, my guess is that Brady's family net worth does qualify her as a multi-millonaire given the explosive growth of New Seasons (now aided by the fact that their main competition in the market is mired in FTC hell, see: http://www.reuters.com/article/mergersNews/idUSWNAS321920070605?rpc=77). I am sure that is not lost on the DSCC.

Anyhoo, back on point does anyone remember 2000 when another Gordon--(Slade Gordon, R-WA) got bumped by a wealthy, liberal female newcomer to statewide office--Sen. Maria Cantwell. She eked it out by 2,229 votes, but Brady could set up similarly vs. G-Smitty. Don't know Brady at all, never heard of her before reading this post. But I am intrigued.

Novick is a great Demo., but in the end, a vanity candidate. Never been on a ballot. Never run a business (or supported a family memebr who did). Never worked outside of government or the public policy arena, for that matter. Never raised a family. IMHO, these are all important relational items to the average voter, particular on top -of-ticket, statewide seats. Maybe less so for Senate than say, Gov. or President, but still, the higher the office, the more people need to see something of themselves in the candidate. That's why the "junkies" tend to cream for Novick--he's one of them.

No doubt Novick offers an inspiring story. Triumph over adversity is compelling. He has galvanized support among the nattering classes, but that don't win you statewide office, baby. Eileen Brady, on the other hand, sounds like there's potential for a U.S. Senate candidate in her profile---just grab the Cantwell playbook.

Sorry, Maria Cant(vote)well Is far from a political neophyte. She was a legislator and representative that got voted out during the 94 elections.

Frank, you disqualified my counter-example. Is that because it was too long ago?

Conrad Burns was more or less a political nobody -- I don't think he'd even served in the MT legislature -- and he beat an incumbent. Of course, that was when Democrats were in decline nationwide and on the way out in the mountain states, so it would only be a good analogy if Republicans were in decline nationwide and on the way out in the Pacific Northwest. Oh wait, they are.

Also, I think Orrin Hatch went from nowhere to the senate against an incumbent Dem. But I don't have time to research it right now; I'm trying to figure out how to attach a boutonniere to my lapel for the Wheelies tonight. But I think there are quite a few examples of nobodies beating incumbents.

This is interesting. She's a political novice with experience running a successful business that promotes good health, family wage jobs, and buying local. Moms throughout Oregon could get behind her. I can only imagine a debate between her and Gordon Smith.

I know I would have an easy time knocking on doors in my neighborhood and talking about the good her company does for our community, and Oregon farmers. That is a message that would be easy to sell.

I don't know if she would win, but it would be a fun campaign.

Sorry, Maria Cant(vote)well Is far from a political neophyte. She was a legislator and representative that got voted out during the 94 elections.

My point in making the comparison to Cantwell is that Cantwell had not run statewide and was fairly obscure from a statewide name recognition standpoint by 2000--6 yrs. after she had last served. I grant you she was not a political neophyte.

However, I submit that Cantwell would not have defeated the popular Gordon wthout the time spent at RealNetworks--doing what real people do. Brady could be interesting in this way. Merge the Cantwell persona with Patty Murray "Mom in Sneakers" model and you may be headed somewhere. Novick brings no experience outside of government, law and politics. His persona is that of someone so caught up in politics he couldn't help but nominate himself. Voters won't see their reflection in that mirror, I'm afraid. Sadie's post exemplifies this.

If I'm Gordon Smith (and thank Providence I am not): Novick as nominee is my dream opponent. Someone with the profile of Brady should make G-Smitty MUY, MUY NERVOSO . Of course I have no idea how she is on the stump. That is key. She may have the right profile but that doesn't mean she has the juice. That said, I'm anxious to learn more.

However, I submit that Cantwell would not have defeated the popular Gordon wthout the time spent at RealNetworks--doing what real people do.

not to mention the money she picked up from her time at realnetworks.

bert, your example (wayne morse) doesn't count because it's in the time before television. everything has changed.

Is New Seasons union?

New Seasons is non-union, or at least it was as of a couple years ago. Also, This rather harsh commentary on IndyMedia accuses them of union-busting tactics but cites no sources.

There were some folks unhappy that New Seasons opened up a few blocks from People's Coop. They were afraid it would put them out of business. As I understand it, that not only hasn't happened but People's is thriving.

I don't know if she would win, but it would be a fun campaign.

I suppose the same can be said of a campaign by Steve Novick. But the point is to win. It seems unlikely to me that Brady is going to be able to do that. But I think the only way a Democrat is getting elected against Smith is to run a very strong primary campaign that catches the public's imagination. Brady has the money to have a shot at doing that.

There is an element of "vanity" in any campaign for public office, you are making the statement that you best represent the interests of the nation. No matter your financial standing or legislative experience, if you're not an incumbent - it's a new job.

A whole lot of candidates siphons the available money for getting out and around, well it's not easy anyhow.

I couldn't know any less about Eileen Brady so I have no opinion on her candidacy or proposed candidacy.

This is looking more and more like 1980. Bob Packwood was vulnerable, but his incumbency and money scared away Goldschmidt and AuCoin. A field of little known candidates ran in the primary and a freshamn state senator, Ted Kulongoski, won the primary. He ended up winning a respectable 45% in a very Republican year, more than some incumbents like George McGovern.

It would seem that 2008 will be much more Democratic than 1980. My guess is that someone with a somewhat big name will be lured into the race by filing day in March. If not, will the DSCC help Steve (or whoever the winner is) or will they abandon OR as they did in '02 and in other years past?

Gordon Smith is a US Senator because a significant number of people looked at the open seat and said one or more of these things:

*That nice Gordon Smith came and visited / spoke to our...)small town, people in a restaurant, civic group, etc.

For all the jokes about "the slick one", Gordon had won elections previously and made a better first impression in a number of ways: being able to talk in detail beyond the printed version of a speech, able to talk about a legislative voting record, a few memorable statesmanlike gestures and folksy conversation as befits someone from a rural area making a living from frozen peas, *and also had been given appearance coaching at sometime in his life and often just looked better --small things like which colors look better on someone can make a difference in first impression.

Smith had some savvy political talent and made some smart political moves (Bruggere wouldn't allow his house to be photographed, so the Smith's conducted a tour of their home, for instance).

It remains to be seen as someone with New Seasons and Ecotrust experience can be as convincing a speaker in rural Oregon as someone like Ron Wyden. Whether that would happen is an open question, but just think how the woman from New Seasons Market could "speak the same language" as the guy who used to run a frozen vegetable company.

That being said, I just finished 2 long days working in retail. The Republican complaint "would be nice to see people with experience meeting a payroll" could be an attack used on Novick but not on Brady. She has probably experienced times when people called in sick at the last minute, or how tired one gets standing on the sales floor for long periods of time, or pleasing customers by giving good customer service, answering every question in the detail necessary, etc.

An old friend said decades ago that politics is like sales. My guess is that Brady may understand that in a way Novick and other consultants and political junkies don't. The private practice of law isn't the same--usually takes place in conditions where participants are allowed to sit while working, need not do physical heavy lifting, a price scanning differently than what the sign above the product says, or other problems faced by lots of everyday workers.

Just doesn't seem like someone who comes home from work with tired feet is going to be impressed by someone with public policy experience--could lead to questions about "real world" experience.

Politics in this country is changing, and those of any persuasion with a "we've always done it that way" attitude may be in for a shock.

" Steve has experience making government run like government should, and will press the issue against Smith"

But the question is which candidate will speak to people who are not political junkies in a way that will persuade them to talk to their friends about the Senate campaign.

If Novick "presses the issue against Smith" and there are voters tired of Gordon but waiting to hear concrete proposals and waiting to talk with a candidate in person, why would Novick win those voters?

All due respect, even if every Blue Oregon reader of the past year got actively involved in the Novick campaign, how does that influence the folks who don't follow politics closely or who trust their friends over strangers?

And don't sneer at "run government like a business".

The slogan has been cheapened by certain politicians, but many retail businesses are unfailingly polite to customers, work hard to solve problems and get people what they need (be it food, garden hose, or an outfit to wear to a family wedding), answer questions, talk in concrete terms, ask people to talk to a manager if they have a problem, or to react favorably if contacted by the chain to ask how their service was.

Compare that to the political games of many elected officials across the board.

"Let's all get behind one candidate" was tried in 1996 with Tom Bruggere. It did not elect a Democrat. If people here think Novick is great, by all means spend all your spare time on his campaign. Just don't think posting on a blog is going to earn the votes of retail staff, construction workers, or others who put in a hard day's work and may not have time for political discussion this early in the election cycle.

Thanks, TA, for putting this into words:

one of the best things we can do with our frustration over what's been going on in our country is to return to the things that make us excited and proud to be Democrats.

Would be interesting to know how many activists think in those terms.

I'm a 3 decade (off and on) activist who has worked on many campaigns(local to federal level),have been a Democratic National Convention delegate, been a member of State and 5th District Central Comm. Aso, I have been a burned out "fed up with politics" registered NAV who re-registered Dem. in 2002.

Also, TA said "i'm also still very wary of the Congressional Dems who so openly opposed Howard Dean for so long. i don't see them giving him the respect he earned for 2006; they seem convinced it was their big-money approach that won while many of us on the outside recognize that the 50-state plan, along with the growth of the activist roots network, and a demand for change from the lethargic voting public, was more responsible."

Great way to summarize what seems to be a battle brewing under the surface among Democrats. Dean brought some of us "battle scarred political veterans" back into politics as well as recruiting young people. Campaign veterans who recall successful campaigns based on a positive message like:

"Hello, I'm campaigning for my friend ---- who is running for...."

"We're excited about our candidate because........"

"Our issue is___, we hope you can support it, and we'll be happy to answer any questions"

People who prefer positive campaigns along with excellent organization and volunteer structure are the sort of Democrats who belong to the "Howard Dean is DNC chair" Democrats. Maybe we need a different color dog or some other label for that. Blue is already taken (Congressional blue dogs.)

There is another Democratic Party where consultants have the revealed truth and if volunteers knew anything they'd be on a political payroll somewhere, "we have to target because there are limited resources", (but don't ask them for the target criteria--the criteria are for consultants to know and the rest of us just to accept because they know best), and caucus leadership at the state or federal level always knows more than people in their communities who together may have many decades of local political experience.

Sounds like E. Brady belongs to the Dean is DNC Chair Democrats. More power to her!

I fail to understand how owning a multi-million dollar business makes someone "real" in a way that fighting for environmental protections and progressive values doesn't. I don't really see that many Oregonians, especially voters in the primary, being particularly drawn to "big business" experience, even if that business is local and granola.

But the question is which candidate will speak to people who are not political junkies in a way that will persuade them to talk to their friends about the Senate campaign.

That is where their supporters come in with letters to newspapers and other ways of spreading the word.

Re running government like a business": Didn't the Republicans use that line and show what a disaster that can mean? Barry Goldwater was once asked about Ross Perot as president and he responded that if he wanted someone to run a business he would choose Perot but running a government is an entirely different proposition and he would choose someone else for that job. I'm not a Goldwater fan, but he was right on that point.

So, I'm sticking with Steve Novick.

Write all the letters to newspapers you want, but how does that influence someone who might see the paper on the table in the break room at work but not pick up the section with the editorial page?

In what way is New Seasons "big business" in the way that AT&T or GM or even Costco fits that term?

For those of you who have never worked with customers in a retail or other setting there are different kinds of managers. There are managers who just boss people around, and others who can get in there and sell a challenging customer just what they were looking for, be it clothing, food for an important event, a computer, or whatever.

The Obama post about the former Republican which I just read kind of makes my point. How many people reading this know friends and neighbors who have voted Republican for years? If not, what makes you think you can predict who will win the general election? (Unless you knew a year ago how well Sal Peralta and Jim Gilbertson would do running for state rep., what makes you think your 2008 predictions are accurate?)

Stick with Novick if you think he is the best candidate, but my guess is that conversations with people in ordinary life (actual person to person conversations) will change more minds than letters to the editor which may or may not be read.

running government like a business

Its a fine political line, but Senators don't run government. And no one want a government run like Enron, which is what we have now.

That is where their supporters come in with letters to newspapers and other ways of spreading the word.

Critics of letter writing note "and other ways of spreading the word."

LT:

It remains to be seen as someone with New Seasons and Ecotrust experience can be as convincing a speaker in rural Oregon as someone like Ron Wyden.

***Oh please! New Seasons makes a point of buying as much locally as they can.... and where is the local stuff grown? Their lamb is from southern Oregon. Their beef is, I believe, from Eastern Oregon. Their fish from the coast. If she's affiliated with that company, I think she already knows her way around rural Oregon and, more importantly, rural Oregon probably knows about her.

***I don't have a horse in this race yet, but I really like what NS does.

***It would be nice to have a choice in the primary.

Randy2

Randy2

Randy2 says:

It would be nice to have a choice in the primary.

I agree. From what I know about Steve Novick, I like him and am glad that he's in the primary. But I don't like this whole "let's get behind one candidate early" junk I seem to hear every primary campaign. Shouldn't we take the time to have a discussion about which candidate would be best to put forward in the general election?

I commend Ms. Brady for her courage. At least she has more balls (or ovaries) than DeFazio of Blumenauer. For some reason politicians in this state think they are entitled to life time appointments. Perhaps inspired by Wyden's disdain for term limits. Wyden has apprently even carried this philosophy over to republicans by his ignoramus support for Bushie Smith. All Wyden has to do is make up a simple spreadsheet listing how he voted on issues in the US Senate versus Bushie Smith and after viewing the results, wonder if he would still be so in awe of rubberstamp Bushie Smith? Anyway the so called democrat leadership in this state disgusts me with the way they have approached an effective challenge to rubberstamp Bushie Smith. It all starts with Wyden and Kulongoski. Why does this state need a republican in the US Senate? But again hats-off to Ms. Brady.

Eileen Brady: from what I have read and heard from those who know her, she seems incredibly articulate, lively, inspiring, and committed. She also stradles the Oregon divide (city/rural) that people in Portland too often forget exists. She is a woman with Oregon in her blood and that can do her a great service in an election but all of us a great service once she wins. So far, she is my pick by a long shot. But like everyone else, I want to hear more, especially from the horse's mouth.

Three words

She is HOT.

Brady is a very attractive candidate. She is very good looking. plus she is wealthy.

You got to be kidding... the party of Kitzhaber and Kulongoski handing off a US Senate seat to a green grocer??? This sounds more like the GOP propensity to run unqualified gadflies instead of competent candidates. What is wrong with the Oregon Democratic Party?

How do you reach them? Writing letters to the choir... er... editor, or finding a way to facilitate them identifying with your candidate?

You use every means available. Including letters to the editor. You may not read them, but for many people this is the first section of the paper they read.

Kevin wrote The simple fact of the matter is that neither the Republicans nor the Democrats have the sheer numbers to win much of anything without also winning the swing voters over, however temporarily. How do you reach them? Writing letters to the choir... er... editor, or finding a way to facilitate them identifying with your candidate?

Amen Kevin! You can't win with just one thing. You have to win with door knocking, letter writing, (my least favorite - phone banking) and even junk mail - I mean pamphlets.

I think door-to-door combat is the best method, personally. When I go door knocking I've found that you are exactly correct - finding some common ground and a way that you can talk to that individual about the candidate is the best way to win friends and influence people.

I personally like Steve Novick's positions. He's a great liberal. But if I go door to door with his message in Washington County I don't see a lot of my neighbors giving two licks about what I have to say. Now if I go around the neighborhood in my district telling people that Ms. Brady, wants to go to Washington and make a difference, I know how to make people listen. All I have to do is mention New Seasons.

I've had meetings with neighbors (Dem, NA, and Republicans) to discuss proposed changes to our neighborhood. In North Bethany, they are going to add an additional 7,000 homes in the farmland across the street. When we talked about developing a new strip mall do you know what all of my neighbors agreed on - they ALL wanted to see a New Seasons put in to anchor the new mall.

Groceries can unite us across party lines, evidently. We all got to eat. And if you have to eat, it is better to eat foods from local sources that are healthier for your family. Republicans, Democrats, NA's - it doesn't matter - we all want to feed our families healthy foods.

I think it doesn't hurt to show she's been involved with developing a great business model that is great for our entire state. She has also done more in the private sector to help our families and provide our communities with family wage jobs than Gordon Smith has done in the Senate.

Now I can promise you, my neighbors will want to hear that story.

I'd like to say that just the fact that she helps run New Seasons grocery stores will be a big point in her favor. I welcome any and all candidates who'd like to try to enter the Democratic Senate Primary. I like that store a lot and I like what they try to do. If she's anything like the values that her store tries to do business by then Mrs. Brady will be a strong candidate.

I like Steve Novick. I think he's a fighter and he's very very smart. I know for sure that he's the kind of person who will turn around the day after losing a primary and set himself to working hard to get the winning candidate elected in the primary.

The more voices we have in the primary the better for Oregon. I won't support any single candidate over another until I know more about all of them who will be running.

You shouldn't either.

I think door-to-door combat is the best method, personally.

While I agree, I think it is important to remember that in a Senate race the overwhelming majority of people are voting for someone they never met. That will be true for Gordon Smith as well as his challenger.

Yes, all the more reason to talk to friends on the subject of Senate race. If the only information (aside from ads) you had about a candidate was a letter to the editor and a friend's impressions of a candidate, which would you take more seriously?

I'm glad one of the first comments was asking whether New Seasons is union.

I hope everyone who's being speculated about- McPeak, Bates, Brady, I hope they and more all get into the race. Novick is probably closest to me, but I don't know who I'd support. I'll let them try to get my vote. Give me some reasons to vote for you, candidates.

The Willamette Week on the Murmurs section picked this up, but also mentioned Rey Ramsey as a potential candidate. That would be a huge win for Oregon -- he is a long-time poverty warrior, a proven fundraiser, big-time Oregon and DC connections, an African-American and an inspiring speaker.

See it http://www.wweek.com/wwire/?p=8121

Brady and Bates both seem like good prospects, but the one thing that concerns me is if they have the ability or intention to go after Smith. I know it been said previously that Bates will not on a matter of principle, and I frankly don't see Brady running that sort of campaign. I'm not saying it needs to be a negative campaign, but whomever runs against him has to hold Smith accountable and force him to answer questions. He has to be knocked out of his comfort zone if there's any chance of beating him.

Kari --

Yes, but what kind of denial? A "no, I am not running" or a "no, not at this time" denial?

"ability or intention to go after Smith"

Is the goal to make Gordon Smith look bad, or is the goal to convince some people who have voted for him in the past that he has been there long enough and it is time for a change?

Some very strongly Republican friends of ours voted for Lonsdale in 1990 and wrote him in on the 1992 ballot because they were convinced Hatfield and Packwood had been there long enough. No ad convinced them to do that, they made up their own minds.

Do some activists have so little faith in voters to make up their own minds that they must browbeat voters? Did Gordon Smith's Jan. 1996 "we're all real tired of career politicians" ad really "work" in Jan. 1996?

In Jan. 1996, someone I knew from years ago who came from DC to work on the Wyden campaign would get into arguments with me about this very question of "going after" an opponent. He said "no one has laid a finger on Gordon", and I said the point was for Ron to win, not just for Gordon to lose, and to do that he needed people to tell their friends why they were voting FOR Wyden.

As it was, by the time Wyden went 100% positive, a co-worker was asking why I had a Wyden bumper sticker on my car if I was so opposed to negative campaigns. His response to my answer was "well, if he is an old friend, that is different".

Although it is beloved of consultants, I don't believe in the flat statement "negative campaigns work". Sure didn't keep Denny Smith from being one of the 5 incumbents toppled in 1990 (Kopetski was attacked by Smith in vicious ways) nor did it help a long list of candidates who went negative and lost. My favorite example was the Avakian opponent the first time he ran who was profiled in the Oregonian as hiring a young person to "be in charge of dirt". When the new session began, I made it a point on my first trip to the capitol that year to tell the Avakian staffers how much I appreciated his positive approach.

I don't believe negative campaigns work. I DO believe that a couple of famous Democrats I know lost to Republicans because they spent more time talking about their opponent than about themselves. In one case, a friend took a job with one of those candidates and I said "if your candidate wants my vote, she'll have to talk more about herself and quit mentioning her opponent's name so often--all that does is give the incumbent free publiclity".

If you believe the only way to win an election is to "go after" an incumbent, then you can do it without me. I son't volunteer on such a campaign because I have better uses for my time.

I have no problem with "the incumbent voted this way and I would have voted the other way". By "negative" or "going after" I mean "Gordon Smith is a slippery character and no one should trust him" kinds of ads. If people haven't figured that out by now they aren't likely to be swayed by ads or speeches.

Well like it or not the Gordon Smith folks will be the least of Brady's problems. The Democratic machine will have to give her a pass. I can only imagine the conversation between her and Schumer, he is tough and unforgiving, if he thinks for a second she is not up to the task they will not back her. Can you see her stumping east of the mountains?, you have got to be joking!. "Don" posted a comment about Webb saying he "only" held position os sectretary of the Navy, HELLO!! that says alot for a canidate that belongs to a party that is consider weak on defense, he barley eeked out that victory. National politics is tough and unforgiving, Mrs Brady is in for wake up call, New Seaons has clout in Portland where they hold the "upper" hand but outside of Portland they are an unknown but when the RNC goes after her the gloves come off, New Seasons and anyone associated with the campaign will be hammered.