Gordon Smith: running scared
The Medford Mail-Tribune takes note of a letter that the Oregon GOP sent to Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY). And they point out, rightly, that it betrays Gordon Smith's fear of the 2008 election.
Then there was the letter that Oregon Republican Party Chairman Vance Day sent to Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., who heads the Democratic National Senatorial Committee, the body charged with finding and supporting Democrats in Senate races around the country.First, Day's letter crows that "every potential first tier opponent of Senator Gordon Smith has declined to run...." Then it gets to the real point — slinging mud at two "lower-tier" Democrats who haven't even decided to run yet.
After bashing Portland businesswoman Eileen Brady for parking tickets and a history of not voting in local elections, among other horrifying transgressions, Day turns on State Sen. Alan Bates, D-Ashland, for his votes in favor of tax increases later overturned by voters.
"While I would welcome him into the race," Day tells Schumer, "you must dread that possibility."
It's fair to ask who's dreading what. If Day really is licking his chops at the prospect of a Bates candidacy, why try to dissuade Schumer from backing one?
The cynical observer might conclude that Day sees the only Democrat so far in the race — Portland activist and attorney Steve Novick — as no threat to Smith because he lacks name familiarity and a history of elected office. One might also suspect that Smith, despite his bundles of campaign cash and incumbent standing, is very, very worried after watching the drubbing Republicans took at the polls last year, in Oregon and across the country.
Update: There's also a good story from the AP about the letter here.
Discuss.
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June 20, 2007
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12:16 p.m.
Jun 20, '07
It's fair to ask who's dreading what. If Day really is licking his chops at the prospect of a Bates candidacy, why try to dissuade Schumer from backing one?
Precisely!
This is exactly what rank and file Dems fell for in 2004 when Rove was "overheard" commenting about how much he would relish going toe to toe with Howard Dean. It was textbook reverse psychology.
12:41 p.m.
Jun 20, '07
"While I would welcome him into the race," Day tells Schumer, "you must dread that possibility."
Why is the current Republican Party (national and state)just so dang tacky and juvenile?
Jun 20, '07
Unless you guys come up with a winnable candidate, which you haven't, all your harping about Smith is for naught. He is getting the red meat crowd, who were going to undervote, back to his table on the immigration issue. No Republican is going to challenge him in the primary, except maybe a lunatic fringer or two, so his whole war chest will be for the general.
I got no use for the guy.... I toss his fundraising letters into the recycle without opening them.... BUT
If you don't run a name like DeFazio, Kitzhaber, Roberts or Blumenauer Smith is assured of another term.
I'd give you five to one odds on it.
Personally, I was hoping DeFazio would run. I was going to vote for him.
2:00 p.m.
Jun 20, '07
The "reverse psychology" interpretation is so obvious and the communication so obsessively heavyhanded that I think the most plausible explanation is in the nature of "reverse reverse psychology" -- by not mentioning Novick, the RSCC is clearly trying to send a message that they are unconcerned about him and consider him no threat ... because that's what they want us to think.
But we're smarter than that. %^>
Jun 20, '07
In case you missed it on a previous thread, Truthout has an interesting article regarding Karl Rove and Gordon Smith.
Jun 20, '07
One of Novick's strengths will be the ability to "fly under the radar" much longer than a candidate who is already elected. Smith, and the republicans, will ignore him for as long as they can in hopes that no one will take him seriously.
Jun 20, '07
Smith, like almost every Republican, is a piece of garbage and needs to be defeated in the next election. Republican policy promotes the interests of the idle rich "coupon clipper" class at the expense of working people. Real wages adjusted for inflation are dropping - due to "globalization", unfair labor practices, unchecked illegal immigration, etc. - and no Republican gives a damn because they are "capital" while most Dems are "labor". The only time a Republican gives a damn about the working class is when a middle class worker misses a payment on his high rate rip off mortgage, because mortgage defaults hurt the Republican's rate of return on their investment portfolios.
However and in spite of my strong belief in the above, I also like to think of myself as a member of the "reality based community". I am not familiar with the Medford newspaper, but if they are seriously suggesting that Smith is currently running scared of Mr. Novick, it appears that the Medford community has access to much more effective mind altering drugs than are currently available in the Portland metro area. Hopefully the situation will be remedied shortly.
3:21 p.m.
Jun 20, '07
While it seems to me to require a bit more "reading the tea leaves"... I think Stephanie's reverse-reverse psychology suggestion has definite merit. The notable lack of mention of Novick in the letter strikes me as surely a heavily calculated move on Day's part. To what end, it's hard to say. Is it reverse-reverse psychology as Stephanie suggests or is it more a case of Novick adroitly flying under the radar as Stacy suggests? Seems like a coin toss to me without more to go on.
3:48 p.m.
Jun 20, '07
If Day knew enough to go and look up information on Eileen Brady, he definitely knows Novick is running. And they know that Novick passed $100K in donations a few weeks ago.
They definitely know he's there.
I think not mentioning him was deliberate. It was exactly what Stephanie mentioned. Since so many Dems are saying on the blogs and such that Novick is an unknown and wouldn't win, they're going to use that. By not even mentioning him, it feeds into that idea.
4:11 p.m.
Jun 20, '07
I think Smith;s most recent approval rating (according to SurveyUSA, which dKos front-paged about this morning) is part of the panic. Smith has an approval rating of 47% barely 2 points above his disapproval rating. Taken with his 2 point drop since the last polling they did on him, the trend lines are a train wreck in the making.
That letter smacks of a delicious blend (for us Democrats that is) GOP hubris combined with whistling past the graveyard.
4:15 p.m.
Jun 20, '07
BTW... Schumer heads the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) not the "Democratic National Senatorial Committee" whatever that is (don't think such an animal exists).
4:27 p.m.
Jun 20, '07
One would think Vance Day would have leaked his research instead of being the front man for the Republican Party of Oregon. Then again, who in the heck would leak weak silly info on two undeclared candidates? Lame!
4:31 p.m.
Jun 20, '07
Oh?
Based on what precisely?
Smith voted against the Vitter Amendment to strip the amnesty provisions from S. 1348. He voted in favor of final passage of S. 2611 which includes an amnesty (both immediate and deferred) and he voted to invoke cloture on the AgJOBS amnesty amendment for up to 3 million illegal aliens (frozen peas anyone?).
Beyond that, given that Smith has a 53% DISAPPROVE rating with "Conservatives" (the same percentage as "liberals" who disapprove of Smith) and a 35% disapprove among "Republicans" and 47% of those in the rest of the state outside of the Portland area (higher disapproval than in the Portland region mind you) in the latest SurveyUSA tracking poll which came out yesterday... I think we Dems will take your concern with the appropriate granules of Sodium Chloride.
Jun 20, '07
Smith has a negative that would put anyone out of office if a majority of the people had high enough standards to include integrity, humanity and a sense of justice. That negative is his vote to authorize the war on Iraq. It showed his indifference to the monstrous costs of war and his oath to defend the Constitution. Since then an inexorable slaughter and mayhem inflicted on innocent Iraqis have been a consequence of this illegal war and crime against humanity. Next November, the ball will be in the people's court. The election will not only say something about Smith and his opponent. It will say more about the people of Oregon. Will they have "high enough standards to include integrity, humanity and a sense of justice" and tell Smith to pack his bags and leave office? Or, will they continue to be as gullible as in 2002-2003 when the majority went along with Smith and the warmongers and fall for slick campaigns and more lies?
Jun 20, '07
Bill, I don't you but I totally agree with your anti-killing, anti-war sentiments. However, with respect to the Iraq war issue I wonder how effective we Dems are going to be next November when the Dem presidential candidate Mrs. C (barring some sort of miracle) shares more or less the same pro-war voting record as Gordo. I am not a political genus as many are on this web site, but it seems to me that it is going to be very difficult to argue that HC was duped and did not really mean to support the war whereas Gordo was a killing machine.
Please do not interpret my comments as pro-Gordo, who is a loser idiot and needs to be defeated. I am just asking a political stragegy question.
5:47 p.m.
Jun 20, '07
Jenni,
Vance Day and the GOP surely know that Novick is there, and surely the ommission of his name in the letter was calculated. The question is whether that's simply SOP by Day et al or whether this also reveals a heretofore underappreciated talent by Novick which he can turn to his advantage?
One would like to believe that someone, somewhere can turn the tried and true GOP Psy-Ops tricks into a double-edged sword that will bite deep into it's weilders. If Novick has what it takes to pull that off then I'd say that he has a very bright future indeed in Oregon politics.
5:59 p.m.
Jun 20, '07
I've found that the Republicans are really good at taking the worried mutterings spread by Dems and using it to their advantage.
They used it really well against Dean. Everything that mainstream Democratic politics was muttering about Dean was then repeated by Rove in a very calculated move. And scared that they were proven right, Dems ran and voted for Kerry.
I've seen it done all over the country. They're really good at it. And we've been stupid enough to fall for it over and over again.
Jun 20, '07
... but it seems to me that it is going to be very difficult to argue that HC was duped and did not really mean to support the war whereas Gordo was a killing machine.
Hillary wasn't duped. She was like all others who sold out to Bush on the war - thinking only of what was to her political advantage and not giving a damn about the people who have been slaughtered and maimed since. Robert Byrd explained to ALL senators before they voted "This is an unprecedented and unfounded interpretation of the President's authority under the Constitution, not to mention the fact that it stands the charter of the United Nations on its head." Neither Hillary nor Smith have any excuses. Since I'm an independent I have no obligation to vote for Hillary. I'll probably write in Gravel, Nader or Kucinich. Unless she runs against McCain or Giuliani Hillary won't be able to make much of a case she is the lesser evil.
Jun 20, '07
Thanks for the laugh. The GOP sending a letter tattling on potential Dem candidates to the DSCC? Wow -- how sadly desperate at such an early date!
10:41 p.m.
Jun 20, '07
>Hillary wasn't duped.
I don't completely agree. I think it's likely that she did not realize just how eager Bush was for war; but I also think that as a former occupant of the White House, she has developed a strong bias in favor of maximizing the President's power and discretion in as many areas as possible.
Jun 20, '07
"One would like to believe that someone, somewhere can turn the tried and true GOP Psy-Ops tricks into a double-edged sword that will bite deep into it's weilders."
It was done in 1990 when Mike Kopetski beat Denny Smith. Denny got rattled and started doing dumb things, and his supporters didn't know how to handle a serious challenge.
One way to do this sort of thing is to say of a friend running as a Democrat something like, "I'll tell a strength of character story about my friend Mike and then you can tell me one about Denny" in any one on one conversation. That was such great fun as there were no strength of character stories about Denny!
More generally, as my friend Julie has said for years, this sort of thing is the perfect example of "when they act like that, you know they know they are losing".
Jun 21, '07
Why did Vance Day write a helpful letter to Sen. Schumer?
He probably just wanted to find a Senator who would respond to a letter. Gordon Smith's office certainly doesn't. I send one or two letters a year to Sen. Smith and I haven't received even a canned "thank you for sharing your thoughts" letter in response.
Sen. Smith may be a lot of things, but he is not responsive to the people of Oregon.
Jun 21, '07
Lestadelc:
He's getting the red meat crowd back by bringing forth an amendment to the immigration bill which would disallow tax deductions to businesses for wages paid to illegal workers. The news on it just broke yesterday. They will eat it up.
Jun 21, '07
Hillary wasn't duped.
I don't completely agree. I think it's likely that she did not realize just how eager Bush was for war; but I also think that as a former occupant of the White House, she has developed a strong bias in favor of maximizing the President's power and discretion in as many areas as possible.
If Hillary didn't realize how eager Bush was for war then she wasn't paying attention. Regardless of that point, if she took an oath to defend the Constitution and it and the Charter of the United Nations meant anything to her, she should have listened to Senator Byrd and voted "No" with him.
If "she has developed a strong bias in favor of maximizing the President's power and discretion in as many areas as possible" then if she is elected president the people will be replacing one would-be dictator with another.
11:18 a.m.
Jun 21, '07
BillBodden:
Stephanie V:
CL: It is true that Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Rice, but also Colin Powell lied in their teeth at times to create an impression that they'd let the U.N. process go on longer than they did. But on the other hand, it was transparently obvious to anyone who watched the Iraqi actions in relation to U.N. inspections in late 2002 and early 2003 that the U.S. was unwilling to take "Yes" for an answer. The administration consistently lied about Iraqi alleged and non-existant refusal to cooperate. There was also a great deal of evidence that they were lying about the WsMD. The big political press was complicit in the lies by not reporting or burying the counterevidence, apart from the Knight-Ridder papers.
Hillary Clinton, like John Kerry and a good number of others, committed a failure of due diligence to find out the truth. They participated in, abetted and strengthened the self-justifying circular group-think that said "everyone knows" what in fact was not known, despite lying assertion of knowledge, and defining anyone who questioned that, of whom there were many, as marginal cranks who were implicitly nobodies, i.e. nobody who counted for their political calculations. They were playing to the pundits and to an aim to portray themselves as "tough." But it's a spurious toughness -- same as persisting in prosecuting a bad case so that someone pays for a crime, even if its the wrong person and the real criminal stays free. I.e. not tough, just stupid.
And Clinton, like Obama and Edwards, now take a bellicose attitude toward Iran that leaves them open to being rolled in the same way into an even more disastrous war. They're not quite out there with Joe Lieberman on Iran, but too close for comfort, and Clinton and Obama at any rate have been drinking too much at the fountain of DLC foreign policy folly.
12:00 p.m.
Jun 21, '07
I don't think Hillary was duped, but that's not where we are with Smith anyway. Hillary hasn't been excoriating war opponents like Smith has--even after telling people like Russert that he'd changed his mind on the war before then. All last summer he essentially called Democrats traitors for wanting the war to end.
I believe an especially strong ad would be to take one of those quotes, put it up there and simply ask: "As many as 70% of Americans believe we should end this war; you're probably one of them. Do YOU think YOU'RE a traitor to your country? Would you vote for someone that thinks you're a traitor? Steve Novick [or other suitable Dem] thinks you're a patriot who supports our troops--supports bringing them home alive instead of in boxes."
Jun 21, '07
"I believe an especially strong ad would be to take one of those quotes, put it up there and simply ask: "As many as 70% of Americans believe we should end this war; you're probably one of them. Do YOU think YOU'RE a traitor to your country? Would you vote for someone that thinks you're a traitor? "
TJ, thanks for providing the text of an ad which could be hard-hitting without being a nasty attack.
If anyone called this an attack ad, or nasty, or whatever, the Democrat running the ad could just quote Harry Truman responding to shouts of "Give 'Em Hell, Harry!". His response was "I just tell them the truth and it sounds like hell".
Jun 21, '07
In this day and age its a liability to have been in Congress and not an asset. What we need is a good communicator, Reagan-style, who has charisma and is known outside our Portland Eugene base. I have no idea if he would ever be interested but someone like the radio host Jeff Golden.
Jun 22, '07
Are parking tickets public record?
How do we research which Oregon Republicans have received parking tickets, or tickets for any traffic violation?
Jun 22, '07
Betsy Johnson flips some property thanks to her legislative influence and makes a cool 100 G's.
But we'll get those dirty Republicans over their parking tickets!
Ha!
8:47 a.m.
Jun 22, '07
Another Anon:
Read the info over at Loaded Orygun. She didn't make $100K. Not even close. While the sale price may have been ~$119K more than the purchase price, there were expenses that they had to undertake before the sale was final. And those expenses were tens of thousands of dollars.
And nothing in her legislative job had anything to do with the sale. The access to the airport that has been talked about was already allowed long before that bill ever went to the legislature.
<h2>Quit spouting information that has been disproven days ago.</h2>