Macho, macho, man...
Gordon Smith, he's a macho man...
From Politico.com:
"I know how to take a punch, and I know how to punch back," Smith said. "So I am ready to rumble if that's what it takes."
Good thing we have a fighter with a hard left hook.
Visit Steve Novick for US Senate. Volunteer. Donate.
|
May 12, 2007
Posted in in the news 2007. |
More Recent Posts | |
Albert Kaufman |
|
Guest Column |
|
Kari Chisholm |
|
Kari Chisholm |
Final pre-census estimate: Oregon's getting a sixth congressional seat |
Albert Kaufman |
Polluted by Money - How corporate cash corrupted one of the greenest states in America |
Guest Column |
|
Albert Kaufman |
Our Democrat Representatives in Action - What's on your wish list? |
Kari Chisholm |
|
Guest Column |
|
Kari Chisholm |
|
connect with blueoregon
May 12, '07
If he walks like an R, and talks, like an R, is he like Rudy?
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/horsesmouth/2007/05/rudy_snubs_farm.php
Giuliani Snubs Jones County by Michelle Phillips
OLIN–Last weekend Deb and Jerry VonSprecken of Olin received a call from former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s campaign office asking them if they would be interested in holding a campaign rally on May 4, after she had donated to his campaign.
“We thought it would be an honor and agreed,” said Jerry.
The campaign office continued to contact the VonSpreckens throughout last weekend and were told a security check would be needed. The couple passed the security check and began putting plans in place.
“We started making phone calls. We got the sheriff and fire department and Olin school was going to let out early. We were also expecting kids from the Anamosa school,” Jerry explained. “Deb even went around and personally invited people.”
On Tuesday Deb received a call from Giuliani’s Des Monies office and was asked to call New York.
“They wanted to know our assets,” she revealed, and added that she and Jerry have a modest 80 acre farm and raise cattle.
Later she received a call from Tony Delgado at the Des Monies location.
“Tony said, ‘I’m sorry, you aren’t worth a million dollars and he is campaigning on the Death Tax right now.’ then he said they weren’t going to be able to come,” Deb continued.
May 12, '07
"If I am Gordon Smith, I may be salivating at the prospect of an Earl Blumenauer candidacy," Eisinger said.
Be careful what you wish for, Gordo.
May 12, '07
Shouldn't that say "I know how to style my own hair, and I know how to have my hair styled. So I am ready to blow dry if that's what it takes."????
May 12, '07
Drawing attention again to a few comments Joe Trippi posted on MyDD back in December (edited by me to clean up - Joe is apparently not a good typist).
Link
Interesting
May 12, '07
Wow does Novick lack presence. Wow.
I haven't seen him speak before. I don't live in the Portland bubble. I read a lot of positive comments on blogs, as well as a lot of negative and jut as many luke warm. But now that I've seen him, I think it's safe to say that this man will not be in the US Senate.
Please please please can we get someone real to run?!? Please please please can we not rely on this "hard left hook" gimmick and a guy who is lacking obvious leadership skills.?
It seems like he is running just because he wants to become well known.
May 12, '07
Coastal,
I'm not sure you have all the information you need to make a decision like that yet.
8:30 p.m.
May 12, '07
No, MNeumann. I think she does.
No one says Steve Novick isn't a good guy. No one says he isn't entertaining. No one says he can't make you think.
But that isn't the position here. We need someone who average non-activist non-proudly-radical-fringe non-Portlanders can imagine being their U.S. Senator. Worth dumping an already established (fake) "moderate" Republican over.
Steve just ain't it.
May 12, '07
All I can say is, I saw Gordon Smith in a restaurant, being trailed by his suit-clad minions, and all I could think of was this.
11:14 p.m.
May 12, '07
I had no idea that Gordon Smith was that buffed.
May 12, '07
MNeumann must be quite a character to even remember Dick Shawn's animated softshoe number in Rankin-Bass' "The Year Without a Santa Claus"! What can one say? "He's too much!"
12:37 a.m.
May 13, '07
Wow does Novick lack presence. Wow.
Wow, Coastal Skeptic...do you lack the cajones to use your name or what? Wow.
People who anonymously throw spitballs from the back of the crowd don't move me very much at all.
May 13, '07
DeFazio was your best bet. I would have voted for him over Smith and so would have many in my party. If it's Blumenaeur, the R's that are mad at Smith will hold their nose and vote for him anyway. I don't think Novick is a contender.
There could still be a primary challenger but it won't be Sizemore. They won't prevail over Smith, but it would be a good name-building exercise for down the road.
8:19 a.m.
May 13, '07
I don't think Novick is a contender.
Gee, another anonymous poster slighting Novick.
Me thinks they doth protest too much. Of course Smith supporters don't want a real fighter.
10:56 a.m.
May 13, '07
"If it's Blumenaeur, the R's that are mad at Smith will hold their nose and vote for him anyway."
The R's aren't all that relevant. The proper question is how the NAV's would vote, and how Blumenauer's popularity in Multnomah plays in the two OTHER PDX-area counties.
NAVs are not by any means beholden to Smith, and their recent track record suggests a vote pattern similar to that of Democrats. It's not yet clear to me what Earl's appeal is in Washington and Clackamas, but as with any other statewide race, those results will go a long way towards defining the ultimate winner.
A little bit of registration info:
March 2006, % of registrations Dem 38.74 Rep 35.53 NAV 22.29
Oct 2006 Dem 38.78 Rep 35.68 NAV 22.17
October 2004 Dem 38.67 Rep 35.58 NAV 22.33
Note that while both Ds and Rs surged (at the expense of NAV) for the 2006 elections, as of the latest figures the Ds have essentially maintained their pre-election strength and NAVs have come back to their 2004 representation...but Republicans are 15 hundredths off their pace from just 5 months ago.
A quick look at Washington and Clackamas Counties:
Washington-- Mar 07 Dem 35.98 Rep 36.77 NAV 24.55
Oct 04 Dem 35.65 Rep 37.45 NAV 24.41
So that's Dems up a whopping .33, NAV up .13, and Republicans down .68. I don't know when the last time Democrats were this close in registrations to Republicans--they're within a single point now.
Clackamas-- Mar 07 Dem 37.19 Rep 38.87 NAV 20.87
Oct 04 Dem 36.90 Rep 38.38 NAV 21.65
The NAVs drop by nearly an entire percentage point, shifting mostly (it would appear) towards Republicans in Clackamas, although Democrats have also increased their representation by .29 since 2004.
12:01 p.m.
May 13, '07
One thing to remember about 2004 numbers -- they were highly inflated. It's hard to compare the numbers for 2004 to any other year. Huge amounts of registered voters dropped off the roles within the year after the 2004 election.
For example, we had 430,693 registered voters as of the 2004 General Election. By Primary 06, we had 372,032. As of the beginning of May we're at 381,176.
It was only 383,915 in the 2000 General Election.
I'm not sure if we're going to see a surge next year in registration like we did in 2004. We have the statewide database, which helps with duplicate registrations. Also, after all the apparent fraud in 2004 with voter reg, I think the county elections offices are probably more prepared.
But looking at numbers is a good thing. I've been watching the numbers here in Multnomah County for some time. While voter registration has been going up (besides that huge drop after the 2004 General), the Republicans have been seeing drops in their registration numbers. They've been dropping since just after 04G, and have yet to go up. There's been an almost 2,000 drop just since last year's primary election, while Dems have seen an almost 5,000 increase in the same time.
It's interesting to see the trends in numbers. I encourage those who are involved in Dem/Progressive politics around the state to consider doing such comparisons for their own county and to share it with their local party. You may be surprised in what you find out. I sure was.
I looked at things like voter registration numbers, voter turnout, and dem performance. I did charts that showed overall for the county, by house district, and by precinct. We were able to see where in the county we need the most voter reg work, where Dem voters turn out the best, etc.
It took quite a bit of time to compile all the information, but I think it's a valuable tool in preparing for next year's elections.
May 13, '07
Torrid-
I live in Clackamas Co. and I vote for Earl...he represents over half of Clack Co. and wins it pretty handily.
The parts he doesn't have...are either blue collar Dems or liberal Repubs (Lake O., West Linn) who are fiscally conservative, but care about issues like the environment.
Considering Gordo still doesn't believe that global warming is real, Earl has a realt shot at them.
And Washington Co. is even more progressive that Clack. Look at Kerry's numbers in '04.
Ron Saxton (Liberal R or was he???) outspent Ted 2 (or 3) to 1 and lost big!
Oregon is ready for another Dem. Senator and after seeing Gordo rubber stamp everything Bush did for over 4 years...it's time for a change.
May 13, '07
Where is Novick anyway? I have seen nothing about him in weeks and his website has not been updated in awhile. Is he still running?
4:07 p.m.
May 13, '07
Let's keep in mind that this video has a bunch of snippets of Steve's first speech as a candidate. He's understandably nervous. A bunch of us grizzled old hacks in the back of the room were actually impressed by how well he did.
One unnamed hack said, "Wow. Halfway through the speech, he actually figured out how to react to the audience and avoid stepping on his lines. Most candidates don't figure that out until six weeks before election day."
Don't worry, folks. Steve will be a great candidate by the time the voters start paying attention 16 months from now.
May 13, '07
I agree with Steven Maurer:
No one says Steve Novick isn't a good guy. No one says he isn't entertaining. No one says he can't make you think.
But that isn't the position here. We need someone who average non-activist non-proudly-radical-fringe non-Portlanders can imagine being their U.S. Senator. Worth dumping an already established (fake) "moderate" Republican over.
Is there any word out of Kitzhaber's camp yet? I can't believe he isn't considering this. If he really wants to revolutionize our health care system, it must be done at the federal level. This is his chance and I can't help but think he's gotta do it.
He's the one D who I can see winning handily. It's time, Kitz!
6:28 p.m.
May 13, '07
Is there any word out of Kitzhaber's camp yet?
This is getting sorta pathetic...we have a candidate who has stepped to the plate, but some folks would rather wait for the tooth fairy.
The race is on. I'm reminded of the old song: "Which side are you on?"
7:21 p.m.
May 13, '07
Yes, there is word out of Kitzhaber's camp, and the word is NO.
Same word as six years ago.
8:41 p.m.
May 13, '07
Kitzhaber is out. He's been out since December. He's staying out. Don't expect him to be anything but out.
Watch the video. He's pretty damn definitive.
May 14, '07
If you want to know where Novick is, you can set up a google alert to track news and blog items on him. I did that for the Brading/Minnis campaign and I got an email anytime anyone published anything on either one of them. I believe Novick was in Bend recently, he was also at Drinking Liberally in Portland last week. He was profiled in a multi-part interview on Loaded Orygun last week. We are still a ways out from the election.
1:47 p.m.
May 14, '07
We are still a ways out from the election.
Ya think? Just under 18 months to go...
Everybody just needs to settle down and stop worrying so much. We'll have a strong candidate, whether it's Steve Novick (with a year of campaign experience under his belt) or someone else.
Gordon Smith can be beat. And he can be beat by Steve Novick. It'll be tougher than with a known personality like John Kitzhaber or Peter DeFazio - but still very achievable.
May 14, '07
Frank, you want to talk pathetic? "Which side are you on?" -- that's precisely the kind of pathetic attitude that I find such a turnoff in politics. It sounds reminiscent of somebody... who could it be? "You're either with us or you're with the terrorists" ...Hmmm. Excuse me if I don't perceive the world to be black and white.
As far as the tooth fairy is concerned, Steve Novick's candidacy comes to mind. Pardon me if I don't jump all over the first guy who throws his hat in the ring. Novick is a good guy -- I'd love to have him and his smarts in office. But let's be realistic -- Gordon Smith, as weak as he may be perceived right now, is still a powerful incumbent and it will take a strong challenger to unseat him.
Kari, I know that John Kitzhaber said he was out. Sometimes people change their minds or say things to deflect attention from that matter (in order to attract it elsewhere - i.e. the Archimedes Movement). My understanding is that he hasn't officially made up his mind one way or another and I'm not expecting any news for a few months.
Look, I know it probably appears otherwise, but I'm not actually a huge Kitzhaber fan. And I'm not anti-Novick. I'm just a realist. There is still time -- for Novick to develop, for Kitzhaber to declare, for consideration of other possibilities...
May 14, '07
I'm with Ellie. Dr. John Kitzhaber was elected to the legislature from Douglas County. Has Steve visited there recently, spoken to Rotary or any other civic organization in counties like Douglas, Lincoln, Deschutes, Crook, Polk, Yamhill, Baker?
He may look like the ideal candidate from the Portland point of view. But in the rest of the state he needs to do what Hillary Clinton did before the 2000 election with her upstate NY "Listening Tour"----listen and engage in dialogue with folks living a totally different lifestyle than the folks in the big cities. He should speak to all those wonderful 2nd District Congressional candidates from last year and ask them what they learned.
He should study the Jan. 1996 Wyden campaign and all the US Senate campaigns before and after that and be able to talk to activists on his views of why Ron won when so many Democrats have lost US Senate campaigns over the years.
That is, if he is a serious candidate devoted to a statewide campaign and not just slogans. "Strong left hook" is a great soundbite for the news media. But how does that help with the downstate volunteers who want to know where Steve would agree/ disagree with Wyden---and whether he would use Ron's tradition of a town hall in every county every year?
3:26 p.m.
May 14, '07
That's almost exactly what I told the reporter from the Ashland paper who called me to ask about Smith's vulnerability---WTF? I wondered when I became a political expert, but if what I'm saying is what Kari's saying, I feel a lot better. :)
7:15 p.m.
May 14, '07
Frank, you want to talk pathetic? "Which side are you on?" -- that's precisely the kind of pathetic attitude that I find such a turnoff in politics.
You mean I gotta sell all those Pete Seeger records? Man...
"I'm a realist" is what I remember people telling me as a kid when I started opposing the Vietnam War, saying there was no way we could end it.
Consider me a dreamer, I guess, Ellie. Pathetic, perhaps...but when you're left groveling for people who won't join the fight, I dont know how truly realistic that is.
Steve Novick will either take off, or he won't. Saddling him with your low expectations just seems awfully premature...
7:23 p.m.
May 14, '07
listen and engage in dialogue with folks living a totally different lifestyle than the folks in the big cities.
Rather than "engage in dialogue" you might just try talking with folks.
And I hear tell Deschutes County's now got some of that indoor plumbing us city slickers in Portland have been enjoyng for some time now.
Sheesh. What condescension. As though people outside Multnomah County can't tell shit from shinola.
9:14 p.m.
May 14, '07
Kari, I know that John Kitzhaber said he was out. ... My understanding is that he hasn't officially made up his mind one way or another and I'm not expecting any news for a few months.
Perhaps you could share with where your "understanding" comes from, since it disagrees with what John has publicly said. Do you have some other first-hand information? Or is it based on all the wishing and hoping and dreaming found in the blogosphere?
Look, I'm a HUGE fan of John Kitzhaber. Hell, I personally tried to convince him to run for President. If he decided to take on Gordon Smith, the campaign would be OVER. (Smith might even drop out.) But he's made his decision crystal clear, repeatedly. All this hoping and dreaming does nothing but undermine Steve Novick, and any other candidate who is thinking about the race.
If he changes his mind, I'll look like a dumbass. But I'll be the happiest dumbass in Oregon.
Until then, I'm wishing and hoping everyone else would just put the Kitzhaber idea to rest. He's out. It's over. Move on. Start figuring out how to help Steve (or another candidate) win this thing.
May 14, '07