Gordon Smith's numbers heading down
Kari Chisholm
When Gordon Smith announced his change-of-heart on Iraq, his approval ratings spiked. But even before voting to extend the war last week, his SurveyUSA poll numbers had started to come back down.
In general, poll numbers this far out from an election should be taken with a lot of grains of salt... and comparing one pollster's numbers to another's should be done cautiously... and these are approval ratings, not re-elect numbers... and we should be skeptical of automated phone polls... but still, comparing his SurveyUSA numbers from month to month to month, it's clear that Oregonians are once again looking at Gordon Smith with a skeptical eye.
Gordon Smith's approval ratings are down to 48%, from a high of 58% in January. The gap between his approval and disapproval is down to only 9% -- the lowest since June 2006.
Stay tuned. It's bound to get worse for ol' Gordo.
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5:01 p.m.
May 27, '07
This is a Kari the political actor post, not a Kari the political analyst post.
Kari makes hay out of two observations, both of which have tenuous evidence:
Gordon Smith's approval ratings are down to 48%, from a high of 58% in January. Of course, the 58% looks like a high water mark across the whole series. The average (eyeballing here) over the last 12 months looks to be around 50%. Smith is a bit down, but not by much.
Stay tuned. It's bound to get worse for ol' Gordo. Maybe. The drop in this most recent poll could just as well be an anomaly (see June 06 for instance).
I think the strongest evidence in Kari's favor is this: there is a pretty linear decline in the percentage of respondents saying "not sure," indicating higher levels of knowledge over this period, something that is only going to go down farther as the campaign heats up. At the same time, the "disappove" seems to be tracking higher, indicating that the "not sures" are being converted into "disapprove."
Ok. So maybe Kari's not so off base after all...
May 27, '07
How about the Oregon Dem party and Sen. Schumer get behind our candidate Steve Novick. If not, these poll numbers are worthless.
6:20 p.m.
May 27, '07
The party and the DSCC aren't likely to get behind a candidate before the primary, unless he or she is the only candidate.
If it turns out that Steve is the only filed candidate on the Democratic side the day after the filing deadline, you'll see them get on board.
There are other people who have announced they're running. However, I guess they haven't filed with the FEC since Act Blue had told me that they create pages for federal candidates as soon as they see that the paperwork has been filed.
May 27, '07
These Poll numbers are NOT a reflection of his approval of Amnesty for Illegal Aiens, please move on as I am a crazy guy and this poll shows that he was smart to vote for Amnesty again. Ted Kennedy did vote/sponsor Amnesty in 1965 & 1986 & 2006 and he is still a Senator, now a life time carreer, not a temp civil servant position anymore so I and my friends must be wrong on this.
Just because Zogby & Rasmussen show that most Americans, even Democrats, do not support Amnesty or a "Guest" worker program, you will see John McCains numbers go way up as he too supports Amnesty or "Earned" legalization.
Remember there are many Americans that trust the Gov't because they passed that Amnesty in 1986 with tons of enforcement laws and it worked swell because we only have maybe 12 million now.
Ron Wyden voted for the "Guest" worker program too because there are not something like 25 Million plus Americans without a College degree and that is thier lazy fault and yes they should compete with people that were making $1.00/Hr. last week and are thrilled to make $8.00/hr. while supporting a Family of four. After all Wyden is married to a Millionaire and has Health Insurance and a Retirement plan even Union workers dream of and he can relate to us, working to pay him stiffs.
But I am just a crazy Racist, after all the Oregonian said that the NY times/CBS only two options (deport or stay)poll is accurate and my thoughts of just enforcing the damn law and people will leave without a job or tax payer handout on their own, so Tax paying Americans can do those jobs and be paid a decent American wage, is just Xenophobic, right?.
For the really weak minded, you don't know who you are, this was satire, because we really should also allow most of Africa, India & China to all move here too. They have it much worse than Mexico after all and I really feel sorry for them, don't you? If not, YOU are Racist!
May 27, '07
Whatever.
Anyway, it's clear Smith's positives and negatives are closing in on each other. And SUSA's record is pretty good, actually. I'm not so sure the uniform consistency of automated polling is worse than having telemarketer-type employees reading the questions.
May 27, '07
Senator Gordon Smith can be defeated. It is unlikely Steve Novick is the guy to do it.
The best bet? Get a sitting Democratic State Senator to run against Smith.
Perferably, a more rural Democratic State Senator because those are the votes which were a solid part of Smith's base which are now up for grabs.
How to steal Smith's rural voter base?
Simple, put up a candidate that can appeal to those voters.
Does anybody honestly think Steve Novick can appeal to a rural voting constituency?
If Oregon Democrats want to beat Smith they need to go in opposition to the Amnesty Act of 2007 currently before the Senate.
Rural Oregon is hopping mad at Smith for dishonestly supporting this immigration bill. Smith ran in 2002 on a platform against amnesty. The current bill has the same provisions as the '86 amnesty, in the 'Z' visa section.
Gordon Smith is a liar and many independents and disaffected Republicans would vote for a rural Democrat who honestly opposes amnesty and can carry other issues that appeal to rural Oregon.
Urban Oregon, well, that is already a strong suit for Democrats, which a Novick candidacy would only marginally add votes to, over the registration trend line.
Big challenge, can Urban Democrats relate to Rural Democrats, blue collar workers, and lower middleclass workers, when a United States Senate Seat is on the line?
Smith is a say anything, do anything politician, that should be removed from office. Does the Democratic Party have a strategy to do it?
Think about the above senario, opposition to this amnesty bill maybe the ticket to victory against Smith in '08.
10:15 p.m.
May 27, '07
Gordon Smith's approval ratings are down to 48%, from a high of 58% in January. Of course, the 58% looks like a high water mark across the whole series.
Paul, it's pretty clear from these numbers that reality does intrude upon poll numbers. The January poll was shortly after the HUGE national spike in positive nationwide publicity - in which a bunch of national Democrats praised his courage in coming out against the war (having not been educated in the wily ways of Gordon Smith.)
My only point is this -- he may have gotten a big bump, but it was short-lived. I think you're right -- his numbers are right around 50%.... but that's my point: his popularity has reverted back.
The popularity bump he got from his silly post-election conversion is now over.
10:17 p.m.
May 27, '07
Also, Paul wrote: Stay tuned. It's bound to get worse for ol' Gordo. Maybe. The drop in this most recent poll could just as well be an anomaly (see June 06 for instance).
True enough. I saw that concluding statement as a promise, not a prediction.
May 27, '07
"Does anybody honestly think Steve Novick can appeal to a rural voting constituency?"
The question is why you think that he can't. Of course, you don't answer your own questiong.
So I will ask another: why don't you think he can?
Steve is from freakin' Springfield. That's not exactly the Pearl District, in case you hadn't noticed.
Steve has made a career of sticking up for ordinary people. He is willing to take on big interests.
So again, tell me, why don't you think Steve can't kick some?
9:41 a.m.
May 28, '07
Voters in Oregon don't want to hear that they have elected an empty suit for their Senator for the past 12 years.
We need a positive candidate. We need a positive campaign. Here's hoping that candidate will step forward in the near future. What has Smith accomplished in the past 12 years?
If unhappy conservative Republicans put in their own candidate to challenge Smith that gives Smith the chance to portray himself as a moderate. Do we really want more of nice, safe, cordial Gordon Smith who cancel's 90% of Ron Wyden's votes?
May 28, '07
To Hawthorne, May 27, 2007, 10:18:05PM, True enough, Mr. Novick is from springfield, but that's like saying Ron Saxton is from Albany.
It has been a very long time since Mr. Novick has been speaking in Springfield's language. In reality, Mr. Novick has been a hardcore environmental activist from an urban perspective for a number of years, his other issues are also urban in focus.
Mr. Novick is a fire-eating partisan, which plays well, in say the Hawthorne district of Portland, but does not play so well in rural Oregon where issues are not so partisan and rural folks have voted Republican or conservative on issue after issue, year after year. A rural Democratic State Senator would understand those dynamics in ways, someone from Portland might not grasp as well.
Also, I hate to say it, but Mr. Novick, just has urban, partisan activist written all over him. I don't care how many plaid shirts and jeans the guy wears, that look won't change.
I also have to inform you that there is a divide between rural Oregon and urban Oregon which in some instances has been exasperated by urban Democratic policies.
In recent years Steve Novick has been heavily identified with Portland, activist, urban politics. Mr. Novick's Days of yore from Springfield are lone gone.
Do you think a savy, if dishonest, Senator Smith would fail to play out all my crtiques on a larger stage with millions of dollars in advertizing?
Of course, if you're already in the Novick camp, I won't change your mind, here, but for the rest of you, who, so badly want to beat Smith; again, it's a strategy that is realistic.
Put all your chips on Mr. Novick, sure go ahead. I'm just saying, look at your other options and see if they, in the end, are the best bet for victory in the Fall of '08.
But hey that's just my opinion.
4:45 p.m.
May 28, '07
Kari,
Nice volley on the January spike. Your the one who should get the NY Times quotes!
I started the posting thinking you were just finding hope where there was none. I ended by leaning a lot more in your direction.
The approval-disapproval gap will cause problems. The decline in "no opinion" is more problematic, since that means there are fewer and fewer to convert.
Anyone seen a head to head with Novick, or a generic ballot question in Oregon?
May 28, '07
How many Twinkies did you eat while writing that work of fiction?
11:50 a.m.
May 29, '07
Ahhhh... Steve Novick is from Cottage Grove orginally (i.e. that is where he went to school before going to the U of O when his high school got shut down because of budget cuts). Steve currently lives in Portland.
Not sure how Springfield came into this.
May 31, '07
A belated strategic note: SUSA gives Smith a reverse gender gap: 5 points higher approval among women, 9 points lower disapproval.
Specifically, they show his gender ratios as 45-44-11% among men and 50-35-15% among women.
I say a 'reverse' gender gap because of party: this would be a much more typical picture for a Democrat, stronger among women.
It is important to note that sample size drops from the 600 in the overall poll to roughly 300 for each gender (294 men, 306 women), pushing the potential sampling error at the 95% confidence level from the plus or minus 4% of the total poll to more than double that.
And I haven't looked at any of the past SUSA polls, to see if the gender picture has been consistent.
But the implication, of course, is that there is a huge Democratic opportunity here: We can erode Smith significantly by educating women about his hypocrisy on the war and his long-term support for the Bush domestic policies that have been so destructive to education, health care, civil liberties, and the other areas where women so often show more rationality than those of us in the weaker sex.
Jun 23, '07
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