DeFazio's Elective Strength
Jeff Alworth
How strong would Peter DeFazio be in a statewide election against Gordon Smith? There are a whole lot of variables that make predictions a dicey matter, but one data point we do have is past performance. Both candidates are incumbents in seven Oregon counties, some of which are rural and conservative. Comparing DeFazio's performance in those counties over the past three election cycles to other Democrats running statewide races is heartening--DeFazio out-performs other Dems and consistently wins most or all of them, even when Republican candidates for governor, president, or senator win during the same cycles. And he performs far better in the conservative, rural counties than do other Dems, indicating popularity with rural voters.
DeFazio represents Oregon's fourth district, which includes all of Benton, Coos, Curry, Douglas, Lane, and Linn Counties and most of Josephine and part of Benton. If you wanted to look at a district that mirrored Oregon, the fourth's not a bad choice. It has urban, liberal Corvallis (Benton) and Eugene (Lane), but strongly conservative, rural counties like Douglas and Josephine.
In the last three election cycles, Defazio has posted double-digit improvements against Democratic candidates running statewide. Moving from most recent back in time, here are 2006's results. Although Ted Kulongoski won handily in the statewide race, beating Ron Saxton by 8%, DeFazio did better against Jim Feldkamp, crushing him by 25%. Below are county-by-county comparisons. The third column reflects the differential between DeFazio's and Kulongoski's performance in the county; bolded counties are those that Kulongoski lost. (Note that where numbers don't add, it's due to rounding.)
DeFazio Kulo Diff
Benton 70% 59% 11%
Coos 56 44 13
Curry 54 41 13
Douglas 51 35 15
Josephine 46 36 10
Lane 69 58 11
Linn 57 39 17
Total 62 49 13
In 2004, when John Kerry beat President Bush by 3%, he actually lost by over 1% in the counties of the 4th District. Here are the comparisons (note that DeFazio and Kerry both got beat in Douglas, but DeFazio squeaked out a marginal win in Josephine, 49% - 47%):
DeFazio Kerry Diff
Benton 67% 58% 11%
Coos 56 43 9
Curry 57 41 13
Douglas 49 33 16
Josephine* 49 36 16
Lane 68 58 10
Linn 54 38 16
Total 61 49 12
Finally, if we go back to 2002, the last year Smith ran, DeFazio did enormously better than Bill Bradbury, who ran against Smith. In the fourth district, Bradbury lost every county, and DeFazio won every county. Of course, it was the election that happened smack dab in the run-up to war with Iraq, and a year after 9/11, so this was the cycle that will be least like 2008.
DeFazio B'Bury Diff
Benton 66% 48% 19%
Coos 56 37 20
Curry 57 35 22
Douglas 60 26 33
Josephine 50 30 19
Lane 72 47 25
Linn 50 28 21
Total 64 39 25
The caveats are many. These numbers doesn't mean DeFazio would do as well in these districts against another incumbent (Smith) in a head-to-head battle, nor does it say how well he'd do in similar counties statewide where he's not the incumbent. All of the numbers we have took place in elections when there were different factors at play, and 2008 will again scramble the variables. And that doesn't even address the money issue--which remains DeFazio's main reason for dreading the whole thing.
Nevertheless, DeFazio has demonstrated impressive strength in the Fourth. If he captured traditional Democratic strongholds in the Portland metro area and areas of the coast and Gorge, as well as winning counties in his own district, he wouldn't need to make huge gains in traditional rural districts in the rest of the state to rack up a tidy win. And as Chuck Butcher points out, he should do well in those rural districts as compared to other Dems.
DeFazio apparently hasn't ruled out a Senate run, and no doubt these numbers are part of the reason he's still giving it some thought.
 |
More Recent Posts | |
Albert Kaufman |
|
Guest Column |
|
Kari Chisholm |
|
Kari Chisholm |
Final pre-census estimate: Oregon's getting a sixth congressional seat |
Albert Kaufman |
Polluted by Money - How corporate cash corrupted one of the greenest states in America |
Guest Column |
|
Albert Kaufman |
Our Democrat Representatives in Action - What's on your wish list? |
Kari Chisholm |
|
Guest Column |
|
Kari Chisholm |
|
connect with blueoregon
2:05 p.m.
Apr 11, '07
Even if you go with the difference between Smith and DeFazio's past performance in counties (i.e. when Smith took Douglas in 2002 with 72% vs. DeFazio winning Douglas with 60%... and grant Smith the margin 12% in Douglas) if DeFazio does only reasonably well in Portland metro for a Democratic candiate (i.e. a little better than Bradbury in 2002) Smith loses by a couple of percent at least.
Apr 11, '07
Upper NE Benton County and much of Corvallis are in the 5th District, I believe.
2:15 p.m.
Apr 11, '07
Here's the thing that gives me pause, in a political sense, about DeFazio: Several years ago I ran across some kind of Socialist Party or Caucus website and DeFazio was listed as a founding member (as was Bernie Sanders, the only other name I remember from it). Have any of his recent Republican opponents attempted to use this against him?
I just wonder how that would play with moderates and swing voters who might be receptive to viewing Smith as too much of an ideologue. DeFazio could be painted as an idealogue from the opposite end of the spectrum, after all.
Apr 11, '07
I greatly admire DeFazio, but Kevin is right.. In fact, DeFazio could be painted as more of an ideologe. The liberal Americans for Democratic Action gives DeFazio a rating of 90% time and again while the American Conservative Association gives Smith about a 70%.
When you go by the numbers, Smith is the closest thing to a "moderate" in the delegation, even more so that Wu or Wyden who usually receive an 80% ADA rating.
DeFazio knows how to focus on economic and senior issues in his blue collar district, but, aside from guns and immigration, he is about as liberal as they get.
3:22 p.m.
Apr 11, '07
How does a guy with a 95% Bush concordancy become the closest thing to a moderate?
Interesting that you say "aside from guns and immigration...", when it is those very asides that keep him from being an ideologue.
Besides, as RW helpfully pointed out, there's a difference between someone you don't agree with politically, and a pander bear. Even Republicans get that DeFazio gives straight talk, while Gordo fulminates like he's a subject in the Milgram experiment, deciding whether to flip the 500v switch.
3:35 p.m.
Apr 11, '07
TJ, I think you're missing a fundamental point here. It's more about perceptions than anything else. And right, wrong or indifferent... Smith has historically proven very capable of painting himself as a moderate, whether it's an accurate painting or not.
Naturally and with good cause, IMO, the left in Oregon has been busy painting Smith to the right of where he'd prefer to be painting. Clearly this is being done with the upcoming election in mind. For all of his genuinely positive attributes, DeFazio is every bit as succeptable to being painted into a corner as Smith is and have it come across as at least half-way believable by the political middle who determine virtually all elections.
Being a founding member of some socialist group might play well here at Blue Oregon. But y'all would be very smart to get ahead of the curve on this one and find a way of dealing with it for public consumption. It's bound to come up and I don't believe there are anywhere near enough died-in-the-wool progressives in Oregon to win this thing all by yourselves.
3:41 p.m.
Apr 11, '07
Kevin, you're operating from the premise that being far away from Bush is just as bad as being too close. Did you miss the 2006 elections?
I think you're thinking of Blumenauer, not DeFazio. As Jeff points out, Peter has pretty strong crossover appeal, or he wouldn't be winning Douglas and Josephine...
3:48 p.m.
Apr 11, '07
Kevin and Grant, you may be right that DeFazio's popularity will not translate to wins in rural districts outside the fourth, but he doesn't have to win every rural county in the state. Kulongoski, who handily beat Saxton, had 22% in Harney. If DeFazio improves on other statewide winners' performance, he looks very strong.
Now, let's check your underlying assumption: In fact, DeFazio could be painted as more of an ideologe. The liberal Americans for Democratic Action gives DeFazio a rating of 90% time and again while the American Conservative Association gives Smith about a 70%.
DeFazio is progressive, but so were Tom McCall, Mark Hatfield, and John Kitzhaber. They all did well in rural Oregon. Merely asserting that he'll do badly in rural Oregon because he's liberal denies how he's already done. Josephine County is not San Francisco. None of the statewide Dems attracted more than a third of the electorate there ... except DeFazio.
I think there's an innate nihilism among Democrats that leads them to think no progressive candidate can ever win in rural districts. There's nothing sacrosanct about Republicans that endear them permanently to rural Oregonians. Good progressives who listen to their needs can win there--as DeFazio has shown. I'm not entirely sure how, save for knee-jerk nihilism, you could argue that he can't win in Oregon. Where's the evidence.
(And that "founding member of a socialist group" thing. Find the evidence or pipe down. Rumors circulated on the FreeRepublic are not facts.)
Apr 11, '07
Robot Vegetable is correct. Almost all of Corvallis is in the 5th district. Josephine has a large land mass in the 4th but not the population. That would be in the 2nd.
Please also remember, DeFazio has never had much competition. Except for his first race in the primary against Bradbury he has had a cake walk. It would be interesting just once to see how he would do against a strong opponent.
3:59 p.m.
Apr 11, '07
Robot V and Josh, thanks for the correction on Benton.
Apr 11, '07
I think DeFazio is a good enough politician that he could market his populism statewide just as he has in his CD. Smith is no slouch himself, though, having one twice in a blue state. However '02 was an R year and '08 likely won't be.
4:20 p.m.
Apr 11, '07
I did some digging... It was the Democratic Socialists of America's website that I was thinking of. It's been updated many, many times since I first ran across it and saw DeFazio's name (which no longer appears on it as far as I can tell).
So I Googled DSA and DeFazio. As best I can tell from piecing a variety of oblique references together... apparently DSA put up a link on their website to the Progressive Caucus (which DeFazio helped found, I believe). Apparently it was a one-way relationship cooked up by DSA to lend themselves the appearance of legitimacy. DeFazio has apparently publically disavowed any formal relationship between DSA and the Progressive Caucus.
It seems likely that what I saw was a listing of the Progressive Caucus membership listed on the DSA website rather than a listing of DSA members. That distinction was lost on me at the time, and of course it was also before DeFazio publically drew the distinction.
That said... I never intended to denigrate DeFazio here. I was simply looking at the politics of the thing. Which is why I'd asked if any of his GOP opponents had tried to make hay with the DSA thing.
4:23 p.m.
Apr 11, '07
I don't make it a habit to argue with Josh about vote counts, but while Corvallis may be in the 5th, a larger chunk of Benton County is in the 4th.
In 2006, Peter DeFazio beat Jim Feldkamp in Benton County by 15,769 votes to 6,726 votes. Darlene Hooley beat Mike Erickson in Benton County by 7,076 votes to 4,741 votes.
That said, the general warning is a good one - don't compare DeFazio's totals in a split county with a statewide candidates totals in that same county... apples to apple wedges.
5:41 p.m.
Apr 11, '07
Good point. Also worth underscoring your Hooley performance vs. DeFazio performance in Benton is a 70% for DeFazio vs. 60% of Hooley. Of course it is not terribly analogous in that it is a different comparison of four different candidates, but DeFazio doing even better in Benton than Hooley, both of whom crushed their GOP candidates in Benton, speaks well of not just the traction that a serious Democratic candidate would garner in areas outside of Portland, but hints at DeFazio being an even stronger prospective candidate.
The fact that DeFazio can creadibly put Douglas county into play at all (even dare I say it, an outside chance of winning Douglas outright if he were to run against Smith) means that Smith will have to fight hard to carry Douglas. Which means he isn't able to focus on bamboozling Washington county suburban and ex-urb voters with his "moderate" schtick.
It is somewhat analogous to making the GOP flush resources into playing defense in defending Minnis, thus denying serious money to other districts where the Dems ended up making gains which turned the control of the Leg. back into Democratic hands.
As I have said in other posts on a DeFazio bid, even in county where DeFazio may not end up with an outright win, that is doing serious damage to Smith in not only drawing Smith away form Portland "swing" vote areas, but adding to the Democratic juggernaught that Multnomah and inner Washington County will give to whoever the Democratic candidate is.
In short, Smith can't afford to hemorrhage anything approaching 10% or more of his traditional leads in other counties outside of Portland or he is in serious trouble. Also, 2008 is NOT 2002 by a long-shot as far as the larger political climate for the GOP. The GOP is going to be defending far more Senate seats than previous cycles, even the previous one when they actually lost control of the Senate. Granted Smith will not be short of cash, but RNC support and the larger top-of-ticket scenarios are not going to be helping Smith at all.
So anything in through the grapevine how or even if DeFazio or his people are reacting to all this and prospects of him throwing his hat into the ring?
Apr 11, '07
Kari
Thank you for the ultimate clarification on the vote counts. Bottom line for me is DeFazio can beat Smith.
8:17 p.m.
Apr 11, '07
So anything in through the grapevine how or even if DeFazio or his people are reacting to all this and prospects of him throwing his hat into the ring?
A lot of folks around him have been impressed with all the attention. There won't be a "grapevine" on the actual decision - because it'll be a very personal one, made by Peter himself; probably when the lights are out, and he's staring at the ceiling.
I've learned in this business that while the hacks are plotting and scheming and dreaming up "paths to victory" - the decision to run for office is an intensely personal one.
Ultimately, the candidate has to decide if they want to do the job; whether they think they can win; if they're willing to radically change their life in the short, medium, and long terms; and whether all the very personal costs are worth it.
As a hack, my job is to help them figure out if and how they can win; and what the time, energy, and money costs will be. Beyond that, the ball is in the prospective candidate's hands. It's a leap off a cliff - and I don't begrudge anyone the decision to walk away.
That said, Peter DeFazio CAN beat Gordon Smith. The only question is, does he want to?
Apr 11, '07
Who the hell has run against DeFazio the last few elections? Those numbers Jeff put up don't mean squat if he had weak opponents.
I think he could beat Gordo, but I think a lot of people could be Gordo. Does Oregon really want to give up Peter's chair of the Transportation subcommittee? That's a lot of bucks we can get for rural roads and city rail projects.
Apr 11, '07
Re the weakness of Pete's opponents: He's faced weak opponents because any pol with half a brain knows beating him in D4 would be impossible.
John
Apr 11, '07
It's interesting that it's not mentioned that Lane county determines the election for DeFazio. You can say that he wins (barely) the conservative counties all day long but it doesn't matter. He's an entrenched incumbent, who receives little more than token candidates every two years. Don't act like he has this great cross over appeal when the man wins elections based on the population of liberal Eugene, not Douglas and Josephine County. Nice try though.
Apr 12, '07
Great, DeFazio can beat Smith.
So we can replace a conservative Republican who trims his sails to suit his Oregon voters at times with:
A guy who is right (well, "correct") on so many issues, yet is so wrong on the issue of the U.S.' long term economic health and the future of so many third world countries and their poverty-stricken populations. That's what free trade is all about, and DeFazio is an economic luddite.
9:40 a.m.
Apr 12, '07
Who the hell has run against DeFazio the last few elections? Those numbers Jeff put up don't mean squat if he had weak opponents.
Feldkamp was a well-funded candidate who made two runs at DeFazio. He improved his 2004 showing from 37.58% to 37.62%. He was a local kid, an Eagle Scout, an FBI special agent, and a veteran. He raised $473k in '06 and $600k in '04. If he is a "weak" candidate in Southern Oregon, what's a strong challenger look like?
It's interesting that it's not mentioned that Lane county determines the election for DeFazio.
How do you figure? Leaving Lane out of the mix, Feldkamp got 65,919 (56%) votes and DeFazio 84,190 (44%). A twelve-point win isn't chump change--it's a strong victory in any campaign. Okay, fine, leave out Benton (which as commenters have pointed out, doesn't include Corvallis). DeFazio still beats Feldkamp 68,421 to 59,193--an eight point win. Hell, just leave it to Douglas, Josephine, and Linn, where Kulongoski got just 35%, 36%, and 39%, and DeFazio STILL wins 48,876 to 43,679. That five-point win, to put things in perspective, was one point more than Kerry won across the entire state in '04.
Those durn facts--they always get in the way of ideological spin.
Apr 12, '07
Most of Corvallis has been in the 4th since redistricting. OSU was gerrymandered into Hooley's dist. so that they would have their own member lobbying for them without competition from UO, but most of the Benton Co. voters are in the 4th, not the 5th.
Apr 12, '07
I meant to mention it yesterday but forgot: I was watching Northwest Cable News on Tuesday evening and they had a pretty lengthy (for tv) interview with Earl Blumenauer. When they got to the question of Earl running against Smith, he said "I'd prefer that my good friend Peter DeFazio run."
So even Earl is now publicly calling out DeFazio. (If you consider NW Cable News "public.")
J
2:09 p.m.
Apr 12, '07
Feldkamp got 65,919 (56%) votes and DeFazio 84,190 (44%).
Jeff, you mean: Feldkamp got 65,919 (44%) votes and DeFazio 84,190 (56%).
2:10 p.m.
Apr 12, '07
Mulvey, Blumenauer did the same in the Oregonian.
2:14 p.m.
Apr 12, '07
Ahhhh... did you accidentally swap percentages with which goes with which name/number there?
Took me a second and third read to sort that out properly in my head. (grin)
2:17 p.m.
Apr 12, '07
LOL, glad I was not the only one scratching my head there.
Thanks BTW for the follow-up about what DeFazio's camps reaction has been thus far. I don't disagree with what you talk about regarding such a decision being ulitmately, a very personal one for any potential candidate. Was speaking more to how the reaction was in his offices and in general with his people.
3:28 p.m.
Apr 12, '07
did you accidentally swap percentages...
I'm a declining old man; you must offer certain allowances.
Apr 12, '07
Jeff,
Thank you for making my point for me with the correct facts and figures. You just proved that Lane County indeed gives DeFazio the bulk of his votes and the strong double digit advantage. I never said that he didn't win the other counties, but he does not enjoy near the same advantage in those counties. My point was that it was silly to declare DeFazio a strong cross over candidate based on these numbers. Thank you again for making my point for me.
6:07 p.m.
Apr 12, '07
Huh?
So DeFazio handily beating GOP candidates in counties other than Lane translates into him not being a strong candidate against another GOP candidate in those and similar counties?
Lane county gave the bulk of Keldkamp his votes (more than 2 times as many votes for him in Lane than any other county) as well. That's what happens when Lane county has the most voters.
<hr/>