Gloomy America

Jeff Alworth

It's been a long time coming, but Americans are finally starting to sour on the Republican Party.  These are the unambiguous findings of research released by the Pew Research Center last week.  What remains unclear, however, is the degree to which they are growing sweet on Democrats.  In fact, the findings reveal a schism in American attitudes right now as previously firmly-held beliefs are challenged.  Americans are more cynical and gloomy, and they don't seem to know whom to trust.

The one group Americans have clearly lost faith in are Republicans:

Even more striking than the changes in some core political and social values is the dramatic shift in party identification that has occurred during the past five years. In 2002, the country was equally divided along partisan lines: 43% identified with the Republican Party or leaned to the GOP, while an identical proportion said they were Democrats. Today, half of the public (50%) either identifies as a Democrat or says they lean to the Democratic Party, compared with 35% who align with the GOP.

Pew attributes this animosity toward Republicans to the growing percentage of Americans who are worried about economic disparity.  Specifically: 

• Two-thirds (69%) of Americans believe the government should care for those who can't care for themselves, a 12% increase since 1994;
• 54% believe government should go into debt to help the needy, a 13% increase;
• Nearly one-half of Americans (44%) now say they don't have enough money to make ends meet, up 5% from 2003;
• Independents, whose responses more closely matched Republicans' a decade ago, now mirror Democrats'.

Republican fortunes, staked for a generation on social issues, are taking an additional tumble as Americans become less religious and more tolerant.  Unlike political attitudes, which tend to oscillate cyclically, trends toward tolerance have remained steady.  Americans are more tolerant of homosexuality, workplace equality for women, and racial diversity. Americans are less religious and less traditional with each new generation--all of which works against the Southern-dominated GOP.

However, this growing antipathy toward Republicans hasn't resulted in warm, fuzzy feelings for Democrats. Favorable views of the GOP predictably tumbled since Bush came into office (from 56% to 41%), but Americans also hold less favorable attitudes toward Democrats, who fell from 60% to 54%.  In fact, Americans express growing cynicism about all aspects of government.  Nearly two-thirds (62%) believe government is inefficient and wasteful and that elected officials don't care about regular people (up from 53% when Bush took office).

So Americans don't trust government, they really don't trust the Republican Party, and just for good measure, they probably don't trust Democrats.  But here's the really key finding, to which Pew devotes surprisingly little analysis (two paragraphs in 112 pages): Americans have lost faith in themselves.  In 1964, 77% had confidence in the American people when it comes to making political decisions.  In 2007, that number had fallen to 57%.  In the past decade, Democrats, Independents, and Republicans all saw their confidence in voters decline.  It's not surprising: the news if filled with stories about a hugely unpopular war and unremitting Washington scandals.  Americans, and particularly Democrats, whose confidence is most shaken, wonder how we could have elected such incompetents.  Politically, it's been a bad six years.

Pew's findings have been touted throughout the blogosphere as further evidence of a flip in power from Republicans to Democrats.  I see it a little differently.  The Bush years have successfully cracked open American politics.  The rules have changed, and long-held assumptions about the parties are being called into question. This isn't surprising in a moment of change, and Democrats are in a position to capitalize on the dissaffection of voters.  But they shouldn't take voters' support for granted.  Americans seem to be looking for a clear direction, and for the moment, they're cringing from Republican rule. They'll give Dems some time to make their case, but given their very low level of hope and optimism, they don't seem very hopeful about what they'll hear.

By Jeff Alworth March 28, 2007