Wayne's World: Counting the Votes
Kari Chisholm
The great Willie Brown -- the former Speaker of the California Assembly -- used to say that in politics, there's only one skill required: the ability to count. In 1995, he hung on to that Speakership for six months despite the electoral defeat of '94.
To pass a bill in the Oregon House, you count to 31. If you can get 31 supporters for your bill, it passes. If you get 30 or less, it fails. For a tax measure, that number is 36.
Are there 36 votes for the cigarette tax that will fund the Healthy Kids program?
GOP Leader Wayne Scott says no. At least, that's what he told Democratic Leader Dave Hunt - and the Oregonian's Harry Esteve:
Scott says he let Hunt know the votes aren't there, but Hunt plans to bring the issue to a floor vote, probably in early March.
Here's the question of the day (and maybe the question of the year): Is Wayne Scott actually doing a count of his caucus members? And if he is, are we sure that they're giving him a true count?
After all, Wayne Scott specializes in retribution and power plays. In Wayne's World, dissent isn't tolerated.
Will anyone be surprised if a handful of Republican legislators are keeping their opinions to themselves -- only to deliver a surprise when the vote hits the floor?
I know I won't.
After all, if Wayne had the votes, he wouldn't be stomping around the Capitol, calling in the media, and making bold pronouncements about the count.
In 1995, Willie Brown hung on to the Speakership for all those months because every time the GOP would engineer a sure-thing vote to depose him -- one of the Republicans would flip over, and give Willie his vote. They kept calling for votes, and kept expecting to win, but Willie Brown knew how to count. He always had the votes.
We're going to see a surprise revolt by a handful of House Republicans sometime this session -- and it may happen on Healthy Kids.
If the big elephant had the votes, he would keep his count to himself - hoping to embarrass the Democratic leadership with a failed vote.
Sooner or later, Wayne Scott's count will be wrong. That's Wayne's World.
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connect with blueoregon
Feb 23, '07
as they say: "let's move" The clock is ticking!
Feb 23, '07
Wayne Scott is not in the same league as Willie Brown.
Feb 23, '07
Nice call on the bovine fecal matter - they got nothin'.
12:15 p.m.
Feb 23, '07
These guys don't seem to understand that sandbox politics like this is the reason voters relegated Wayne and bhis party to the minority last November.
This business of bullying other legislators and forcing them to vote against their conscience or constituents as a matter of party loyalty makes it impossible for anyone other than die-hard Republicans to vote for a Republican and expect to be represented.
In a state where the non-affiliated voter is the fastest rising percent of registered voters, this adolescent is a sure way to stay a minority party for a long time.
Feb 23, '07
Shine the light of truth and public exposure on these Republicans cockroaches. Let's see some roll call votes. Weiner Wayne may talk big, but I would be very interested to see how his troops vote when the spotlight is upon them. My money thikgs they will break and run for the dark corners that they deserve.
Feb 23, '07
Sorry for typos in above. I should have my legal assistant proof my outgoing messages, but I think she may be a closet Republican.
Feb 23, '07
Shhhh, you're telling Republicans how to win.
Feb 23, '07
I don't think there was an implied comparison between Wayne Scott and Willie Brown. (For one thing, I don't think Wayne Scott has ever in his life showed up to an event in a stretch limo with a blonde on each arm, in a top-hat, and acting friendly to the press the whole time.)
If anything, the question is whether Dave Hunt has the ability to pull off a Willie-Brown-esque feat of counting across party lines, no?
Feb 23, '07
I just sent Wayne the following email:
Wayne, thank you for leading the fight against socialized health care for the children of poor people.
As all good Republicans know, the more poor children that die from disease or injury, the fewer poor children we will have to deal with in the "final solution".
Keep up the good work!
Adolph Jr.
Feb 23, '07
My comparing Wayne Scott and Willie Brown was in reference to their respective levels of intelligence and political skills. As for the blondes, Willie was out in the open and not hiding in a closet with an intern like a former president. Good luck to Willie. It was probably well-earned. As for Scott I sent him and all other legislators an e-mail a couple of years ago opposing the Republican plan to cancel the annual increase in the minimum wage mandated by the voters. Scott was in favor of cutting out this increase and opposed to raising the minimum wage in the first place, but he had the gall to claim in his response to me that he didn't like to see anybody living in poverty. How two-faced can a politician be? I can't imagine Willie Brown being so dumb.
4:02 p.m.
Feb 23, '07
I know Willie Brown. Willie Brown is a friend of mine (not exactly.) Wayne Scott is no Willie Brown.
Which was my point.
(And BlueNote, let's not use the N-word, shall we? Republicans aren't Nazis. Period.)
Feb 24, '07
Not Nazi, merely Fascist.
6:38 a.m.
Feb 25, '07
I wonder if our going along with mythologizing the Nazis into ultimate evil really does a service for humanity.
Why is this one analogy off-limits?
I agree that, as is also true with "terrorist", it's easy for "Nazi" to be a catch-all for every minor thing we disagree with and that's hardly useful.
On the other hand, the original Nazis were not evil aliens from some other planet the likes of which are never going to be seen again. They were just human beings like us who collectively made choices with horrific consequences.
Those kinds of choices are still open to us today and can still lead to horrific consequences if we let them. "Republican" and "Nazi" are hardly synonymous, on the other hand some Republicans, most notably some on the "Christian" right, do appear to be promoting many of the principles that led to the choices that produced those earlier horrific consequences. I don't think it should be considered out-of-bounds to point that out. Of all the historical examples we have to learn from, surely the Nazis provide lessons that are too important to ignore.
Feb 25, '07
Remind me what was so admirable about Willie Brown. Certainly not his demeanor or the way he treated people. Sure, he could count votes. So could Trent Lott and Bill Frist. What's so admirable about that?
Feb 25, '07
Willie Brown was born black and poor in a world where racism was rampant. Despite that start he rose to become one of the most powerful politicians in California and the mayor of San Francisco. As with almost all politicians you can find fault, but he demonstrated a remarkable intelligence and courage on many occasions. In the process he helped elevate prospects for many people of his race as well as inspiring younger generations. He made his share of enemies, but most of them, if they were not burdened by racism, had a lot of respect for him. Try a Google for "willie brown speaker mayor" for "What's so admirable" about Willie Brown.
Feb 26, '07
Children First is part of the Healthy Kids Coalition that is handing out fliers in several districts, including Democratic districts. Affordable health coverage for all kids need not be a partisan issue, as indicated by Sen. Smith's endorsement last week. Our efforts were somewhat mischaracterized in the Oregonian article. This coalition is working very hard to take the campaign outside the building and bring in the public, which overwhelmingly supports the Healthy Kids Plan. You can join us at www.healthykidsoregon.org.
Mar 1, '07
Kari brings a hero of mine into discussion as a very relevant reference point. Willie Brown was a legislator who ran California, an African-American Man, a populist, an accomplished politician. I lived in his District and worked for him when he was in the legislature as a young man.
In Oregon today, I see the Democrats mostly posturing and unable to be like Willie. I see them unable to pass out a corporate kicker widely supported by business. I see the House Ds bunkered down in their own caucus, unable to work across the aisle, in part in reaction to Minnis and Scott and the people who kicked them around for 14 years. (I hope I am wrong about this. But I see the strategy as putting Rs on the record, not as finding solutions to real problems and then finding the votes.) Perhaps things will change. But I do not yet see the strategy for meaningful change. I do not see a Willie Brown type agenda yet. I do not see the Democratic establishment figuring out how badly they have been beat by big money and Sizemore's initiatives and the Republican slime machine in the contested districts, and then developing a way where progressives can win big on real issues, instead of emulating the Republican tactics. The Democrat establishment is so proud of their "hardball" negative advertising against Karen Minnis that cost Rob Brading a win. They are so proud of their paid canvassers and their polls and their money-raising, and their opposition to campaign finance reform passed by the people, and their continued get-out-the-vote strategy, and their meager ethics reforms. I don't see a program of building an agenda that brings along the independents and moderate Democrats and Republicans in the Willamette Valley suburbs who determine outcomes in this State. Things are still led by labor and the OEA and the Trial Lawyers, who are more interested in maintaining their own control over the legislative status quo (defending themselves) than they are in progressives really winning to bring about meaningful change, as Willie Brown did in California. Things here are still mostly adversarial, and poll driven, and about defending current territory. They are not about building a progressive grass roots movement that can elect a Governor who really represents change, and a legislature that can pass that meaningful change out -- in tax reform, health care, k-20 education, land-use planning, the environment, energy, social services, elections & campaign finance, and prison & sentencing reform. Kari is absolutely right in bringing to mind Willie Brown. Not in relationship to the evil Wayne Scott, but in relationship to the bright, liberal, well-intentioned Jeff Merkley, who is captive of the forces who want to defend turf and fight in hand-to-hand combat, rather than develop a strategy to create and pass a meaningful progressive agenda, as Willie Brown did. I believe Merkley would "do the right thing" if he could. I believe in him. We shall see how he fares in comparison to Willie Brown -- this after all is not California, and a different strategy is needed here.