The last three days matter. Help get out the vote.
By Lisa Grove of Lake Oswego, Oregon. Lisa is Oregon's leading Democratic pollster.
Once again, it feels like the Republicans have beaten us at the “name game.” They’ve even branded their last-ditch, attacks-under-radar, church blitz in a way that does nothing but make me nauseous. The words, “72-hour plan,” reverberates through my head at least once every 72 seconds.
What does this mean? Republican turnout that exceeds Democratic turnout looks like it is already starting to happen.
As a pollster, I’ve been called “seductive” many times. And it has nothing to do with my physical appearance or the endearing way I make demands on behalf of my clients and causes this time of year. No, it’s my polls that are seductive. At best, they offer good news and game the prospects of winning. At worst, they offer hope and a path.
Yet they provide a snapshot a few days out. A snapshot that is only real on election day IF PEOPLE VOTE.
I know there is a whole army of drenched Oregonians whose feet ache from pounding the pavement. And another set with sore throats and calloused fingers from dialing. These are the heroes. Here’s my plea: do whatever you can to join them.
If we win, let’s party like rock stars. But that is more than 72 hours away. But for now, let’s muscle like rock climbers, looking for the foothold will ultimately change the future of our state.
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Nov. 05, 2006
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connect with blueoregon
Nov 5, '06
I couldn't agree more with Lisa. Election turnout is tracking November 2002 results very closely, but the detailed breakdown shows one good pattern and one troubling one. The good pattern is that Democratic turnout is still slightly above Republican turnout statewide. That has been happening since the big voter registration and GOTV efforts of 2004. Prior to that, Republican turnout was almost always even or slightly ahead of Democratic turnout through the vote by mail period. Republican turnout always surges at the end and they can still catch up. I did my part by dropping my ballot off at Multnomah County elections early Friday morning :>
The not so good pattern is that Portland Metro turnout is about where it was at this point in November 2002, but turnout is very slightly higher downstate. This puts more pressure on GOTV efforts in the Portland area. The prospect of a typically wet Monday and Tuesday makes me a little more nervous. Rain discourages travel and even dropping off a ballot seems a little more burdensome when the roads are soaked.
This is a turnout election, no ifs ands or buts. While the national electoral mood affects Oregon as well, we are a bit disconnected from that since there are really no competitive congressional races here. It's a little hard to triangulate all the polls, but it just feels like Saxton still has a chance, so now is the time to work hard and solidify the momentum in Gov. Kulongoski's favor. And while we're at it, given him a better House to work with.
3:25 a.m.
Nov 5, '06
BTW, for those who don't know Fred... he's one of the unsung heroes of the progressive movement in Oregon; spending his days cranking away on the voter data that matters to campaigns.
Between Fred and Lisa, you're getting the two smartest numbers people in the state on this thread.
Nov 5, '06
Vote in your own interest by November 7. Inform voters that neo-cons like Ron Saxton represent the wealthiest one to two percent. Saxton stands NOT for we the people!
The watch-phrase for voters and volunteers now is: GOYA - Get Off Your Apathy. Fight the urge to become over-confident or complacent. Get out there and work.
Saxton and his allied extremists running for the Legislature symbolize the same cronyism and corrupt, failed policies of the federal regime. Don't allow them to repeat those failed policies in Oregon.
Big money interests backing Saxton are the same scandalous gang advocating disastrous Ballot Measures 41 and 48. The greed bunch is intent on massive profiteering by privatizing most government services: health care, road maintenance, Highway Patrol, DMV, etc.
Saxton marches lockstep with CheneyBushCo on the discredited invasion, war and occupation of Iraq. It's time to terminate the politics of fear at the national AND local levels.
Imagine newly registered youth voting alongside Democrats, Progressives, non-affiliated, even moderate Rs who want to take back their party. With that coalition we'll prepare Oregon for a positive future!
Your volunteer services and dollars are necessary now. Election volunteerism is a winning formula for progressive candidates across the state: Ted Kulongoski, Vicki Walker, Chris Edwards, Jean Cowan and progressives in several other targeted races.
Remind voters that non-profit, public interest, environmental, labor and civil/human rights organizations are endorsing Progressive candidates!
Remember that extreme factions are intent on suppression of voter turnout. Don't lapse into that negative stupor!
Thanks for anything you can do to motivate, energize and Get Out The Vote.
J Jacobson, Eugene
11:32 p.m.
Nov 5, '06
Fred, Yep, we're seeing the same thing. The pattern is holding nationally as well. While the media folks I talk to don't quite seem to have figured out yet that higher early voting numbers may actually translate into lower overall turnout.
11:55 p.m.
Nov 5, '06
Want to help out in Portland?
Call 503-239-8646 or stop by 232 NE 9th to help out.
We'll be phone banking and canvassing all day Monday (10 a.m. to 9 p.m.) and most of the day Tuesday (9 a.m. to 7 p.m.).
Come by and help out. Bring food by to feed the volunteers (especially things like sandwiches, fruit trays, veggie trays, etc.). Help us ensure that Governor Kulongoski is re-elected.
It does us no good to win the state house and senate if we lose the governor's office.
Please help. There are only 2 days left.
-- Jenni Simonis Field Director Multnomah County Democrats
Nov 6, '06
A very strange thing is happening. Up until today, I've been deluged by (campaign, not GOTV) robocalls, getting 5 or 6 a day. All of the sudden, they've stopped.
Wonder if the RCs have been originating from out-of-state and Oregon has just been a warm-up act? Now that voting for most of the nation is tomorrw, why should the outsiders waste their efforts on little Oregon? Time to move on to more lucrative targets.
<h2>Vote-by-mail is so great.</h2>