What better platform could Kitz possibly ask for to advance his agenda to improve our healthcare system than as a member of the majority in the US Senate?

I can't see why he wouldn't run (and I know all about his wanting to raise his son in Oregon), he would have Smith's head on a platter if he challenges him.

Come on Kitzhaber, run run!

So much for Willy Week's "Red Tide Rising" or whatever they called their article about impending Oregon Redness...

Barbara would be great, but I believe she turns 70 this year -- a little late for a Senate run. If Kitzhaber doesn't run I think Darlene Hooley would be able to take out Smith. She has become very popular in her fairly conservative mid-Valley district. She'd win the Metro area and Lane County easily and would have great appeal in Jackson County and on the coast. When was the last time Oregon sent a woman to the Senate?

I don't buy it about Hooley. Nothing personal about her, but she's never won more than mid- to high-fifties in her race, and I don't see her as a passionate campaigner in what would be a grueling challenge statewide. She wins because of her constituent services, but she may very well lose her district in a statewide race with all of the intense publicity that it would entail.

Plus, her district would stand at least a 50/50 chance of flipping Republican--- we definitely don't want that.

I'm all for Kitz, but I can't imagine anyone else who'd be a frontrunner.

I think the guy who can have statewide appeal and wage a no holds barred campaign is DeFazio. He would need to opt out of his House seat, but maybe he's ready for prime time. He gave Ron Wyden a run for his money back when.

If a member of Congress runs, then there is a scramble to fill the Cong. seat and it could end up with someone less than satisfactory.

Here's a hint: what do Mike Kopetski, Jim Bunn, Darlene Hooley have in common? Since the 5th District was created, only Denny Smith (who won in the Reagan landslide with the help of a 3rd party candidate) wasn't a legislator first.

How about looking at legislators to run against the former St. Sen. President who 10 years ago was railing against "career politicians"? If he wanted to, I think Ben Westlund could take out Gordon, but otherwise how about a st. sen. who either is in the middle of a term or doesn't really care for another st. sen. term? Esp. if it were a younger more charismatic legislator who is more in touch with ordinary Oregonians than Gordon is.

But above all, let's make sure Oregonians decide the nominee. 10 years ago DSCC thought they knew best but Bruggere lost--that is how we got Gordon Smith. Even if S. Brown and Bob Casey did win, that doesn't mean Oregonians should allow DSCC to believe it deserves to choose our US Senate nominee for us.

Kari,

That's an incredibly pathetic attack to label any criticism of Hooley as sexist, you've really cheapened yourself and this site with that shot. What, I've lived in her district and don't have the right to criticize her passion? How pathetic. There are plenty of women who are passionate campaigners, but Hooley is not one, and like I said, it's nothing personal, it's just her style.

You further expose your cluelessness by advocating for Bradbury, when it's common knowledge that he's got worsening multiple sclerosis and is in the twilight of his political career.

Stop mistaking genuine discussion for a personal attack, or you might as well rename this site "Blue Kari" instead of "Blue Oregon."

Maybe he can hire Chuck Adams to send out fliers for him.

Torridjoe,

Thanks for your respectful analysis (some could learn a lesson here...). I have one quibble, and it's that Darlene wins in her "minority" district because the Independents in this state (including myself) trend blue, but more importantly, trend incumbent unless given a reason not to (one need look no further than Walden's race to see this from the Republican perspective).

Darlene has faced weak opponents for the last three cycles (the only ones I know well) who haven't articulated a coherent reason to vote against her, so they've stuck by her. I would argue that she (or any other Congressperson representing a district outside of PDX where the Independents determine the election) would be working against this with Smith, as he would be the incumbent and they would have to campaign with abandon to articulate why Smith should be shown the door. I don't believe that she could campaign that energetically, even is she is mostly a "good Dem."

Only Kitzhaber would be able to capitalize on the "incumbency" factor (because he's about as close as it comes to being an incumbent without actually being one) and beat Smith amongst the Independents.

Kari, The sexism charge was indeed a low blow. In an election cycle where normally vulnerable D Incumbents did abnormally well (UT-02, 59%: TX-17 58%, SD-AL 69%, KS-03 64%, ND-Al 65%) Hooley's 54% doesn't look particuarlly good. I could be wrong but I would like some type of numbers or argument, not just name calling. I like Hooley and am actually dissapointed that she didn't break 60% because it would have made her safer. Charlie

While I would support anyone who won the Democratic nomination for a race against Gordon "So NOT A Moderate" Smith, there are no names being discussed here that would energize and inspire me to work hard on their primary campaign.

I'm wracking my brain trying to think of someone and the only politician I could seriously get behind for the whole ride would be Earl Blumenauer. Does anyone think that Earl would want to move to the senior chamber in '08? All the concerns about Ms. Hooley, regarding loss of seniority, would also obviously apply to Mr. Blumenauer. But I prefer Earl's more public profile, and I much prefer his voting record (didn't Ms. Hooley vote for that disasterous Bankruptcy Bill? Side note to Kari - my hard feelings against Ms. Hooley stem from her voting record, not her gender).

If this election taught us anything, it should be this: populism works. All six of our new Senators and most of our new House members ran as unabashed economic populists. Hooley is a DLC "centrist" and wouldn't have much line of attack on Smith. Blumenauer is an urban liberal and basically a Ron Wyden clone. I think Oregonians want some diversity among their Senators. Kitzhaber would be great, but probably won't run. That leaves DeFazio as our best bet. Sherrod Brown just provided the template for how a progressive populist can take out a moderate-to-conservative Republican. And Oregon is a lot bluer than Ohio.

I had forgotten about Pete DeFazio when I'd posted earlier this morning. I would volunteer and donate and work for Pete, too. He's inspiring to me.

Back to Darlene Hooley (my ride had shown up and I had to cut my earlier post off) - the other complaint I had about her came from her positioning on Social Security. She had a Town Hall type meeting when Bush was pushing his SS "reform" and she kept going on about how Democrats needed to come up with a plan to counter Bush's plan. I was saddened that Ms. Hooley was falling for the Republican talking points and was parroting the meme that "Democrats don't have a plan". Um, hello? Isn't "Social Security" a plan? And a pretty good one, at that? It may need tweaking but not a complete overhaul...

I only bring that up to underline what nwprog said - that Ms. Hooley is a "centrist" (which really seems to mean "slightly to the right" these days).

I would be shocked if Peter DeFazio ever thought about running for the senate now that he will get a chairmanship in the house. If he did he would risk losing the 4th CD to a republican.

Sara Gelser for Senate '08.

Gordo is very vulnerable. He's going to have plenty of money to throw around and this race will be very expensive. I think there is a whole list of people that could beat him. Kitzhaber would smoke him but Kitz has said he has no interest in Washington. Earl would probably win a close race and same with Difazio. What about our state reps. After a strong term Merkley could be in the running. What about a hard hitter like Randy Leonard? I don't know if either of them would have any interest but this is all speculation right? I don't want to seem like an agist (is that how you would spell that) but Darlene is what 67 or 68 now? 70 when she runs for Senate for the first time? I think a run then would be a little unrealistic. I think Darlene is great but if I were her I wouldn't want to be in Washington away from my kids and grandkids for the next 6 years. Would she even run again? Think about this too. If we beat Gordo in the Senate what if he runs for Governor? He would actually be a strong Republican candidate.

I know everybody is charged from last week's show, but I have to disagree about Gordo's vulnerability. I don't think there's a dem in the state that can touch him, except Kitzhaber.

Sponge:

I'm sure that two years ago, Montana Democrats were saying that Conrad Burns couldn't be beaten, either.

I think we shouldn't wait until '07 to get started on weakening Mr. Smith. We should start now, and (since I'm trying to be solution-based) the first thing I can think of to do that is start publicizing Mr. Smith's actual voting record. If we can undermine the white-washing he gets from the Oregonian, that would be a big big help.

I've been wanting to start political blogging again - if I can find a good URL to use, maybe I'll start one focused on exposing Mr. Smith. It may be a small thing but it's something I could start doing right away.

I think Kitzhaber or DeFazio would make the best candidates, but it is unlikely that they or any of the other Congressional Reps. will run (and I also do not think Hooley would be a good candidate based on her record and charisma). I think Bradbury ran a terrible campaign in '02 and I would not like to see him make a second go at it.

That leaves state legislators. I think state legislators from Portland or Eugene would have a tough time fending off the statewide bias towards those communities. I'm not very familiar with our other state legislators, but how about State Senate President Peter Courtney or State Rep. Greg Macpherson? Others? I think name recognition can be overcome with a good campaign and if we start early enough.

OK, you've talked me into it.

It seems like every time this issue comes up, someone says that DeFazio shouldn't run because his seat could swing to the Republicans. Are you suggesting that only Congressmen from safe Democratic districts should consider running for Senate or Governor? DeFazio is an attractive candidate precisely BECAUSE he wins the support of conservatives and moderates in rural areas. Better yet, he achieves that with a progressive populist message, not by moving to the right. DeFazio would be Gordon's worst nightmare.

I live in Peter DeFazio's district, and have lived in Darlene Hooley's district as well (...and all in the same town! Good old gerry-mandered Corvallis...). I would be very enthusiastic about a DeFazio candidacy, and I believe he could take out Gordon Smith. He has cross-over appeal to independents and moderates, he's authentic, and he stands up for working folks.

Hooley, on the other hand, is more of a corportatist... supporting the bankruptcy bill and the estate tax repeal, among other transgressions. She's not quick on her feet, and she doesn't provide much of a contrast with Republicans. The best way to lose a race against Gordon Smith would be to run as Republican-lite. We need a candidate who will give voters a reason to vote for them over Smith. On that score, DeFazio would be an excellent candidate.

I would also be excited about a Kitzhaber candidacy. He has many of the qualities that I admire in DeFazio. I hope one of them runs (all though I would have a hard time choosing between them, so I hope they don't both run).

Earl would probably be my 1st choice for taking out Gordo and picking up a Senate seat for the Dems. His district is definitely safe for the Dems (the only question is which bicycling liberal Portlander would replace him), and he could probably win in a statewide race based on his record and his straightforward style.

I like the Randy Leonard idea, too -- nothing like a former firefighter to get support in red counties. Sure, he's been a maverick on the Portland City Council, but as far as I can tell, that's mostly turned out to be a good thing.

Pete DeFazio -- too important for him to hold down his own district, keep his committee chairmanship, and keep that seat blue. Ditto for Hooley.

Kitzhaber would wipe the floors with Gordon Smith, but he really doesn't want to go live in D.C. for any portion of the year, or so he claims. If he could be persuaded that it's worth his while to do so; further, if he could be persuaded that it is his DUTY to his fellow Oregonians to do so, he would become my favorite and probably everybody's favorite to take out Smith in 2008. The question, however, is if he could be persuaded to run.

There's probably other potential choices, but I agree that name recognition is the key for this race, and we should focus on those people that everybody in the state knows, and most people approve of.

DeFazio would be a strong choice, especially given all the exposure he gets from Thom Hartmann. Somebody else I would like to see considered is Les Aucoin. I think he'd fare better against Smith than he did against Packwood in '92.

Having met him once on Filing Day, I think Gilberston may be Oregon's answer to Montana Sen.-elect Tester!

DeFazio might be a good US Senate candidate but who would then run for his Cong. seat?

Les AuCoin didn't get confirmed for a board he was appointed to last year, and some think that was because he didn't ASK for votes and Ted K's folks never completed the sentence "AuCoin would be better for Oregon than Heffernan because..."

To learn more about that, read http://www.counterpunch.org/donnelly03232005.html

I recall the 1992 US Senate primary. It was not a positive, inspiring campaign--to put it mildly! I knew people who just said "this is too nasty, I'm not going to get involved". It was decided by a recount.

And then in the fall debate when Les tried to say Bob Packwood was running a negative campaign, Packwood said "given the primary you ran, you are calling ME negative?" or something like that.

I like the idea of Kitzhaber if he would run.

Bill Bradbury would be a possible candidate for DeFazio's seat. If not him, then there are quite a few state legislators who would make good candidates. I imagine that 4th District natives Kitzhaber and Kulongoski, along with DeFazio, would do everything in their power to keep that seat in the Democratic column.

Kari Chisholm could take out Smith in '08.

This stuff about Kitzhaber seems...what exactly? Silly? Patronizing? Bullying? Delusional? How commonly has Kitzhaber said "no" when he meant "yes"? And what's that about his so-called duty to Oregon? Seems pretty clear he takes parenthood seriously, and sees his duty to his child. Best to quit living out fantasies about Kitzhaber and respect his choices.

Seems to me the ingredients to success are an excellent candidate (name recognition helps but I wonder how many Montana voters knew the name John Tester in Nov. of 2004---we're talking about this right after an election), serious discussion of issues, well managed campaign (Did Tester hire outside consultants or was his campaign managed by someone from Montana?), effecient fundraising coupled with excitement about a positive alternative to Smith, and DSCC support.

We can all name campaigns which inspired us and campaigns which didn't for a variety of reasons (nasty, not about issues important to ordinary voters, not well run, etc.). The successful campaign would need to be the former, not the latter.

I'd be more worried about DeFazio's ability to beat Smith than I would be about the 4th going red. While I can think of a whole host of Dems who could win this seat, I can't think of too many R's who could take it. Certainly not Feldkamp.

I like the Susan Castillo idea. Proven leadership, expertise in one of the hottest issues - education, personable...Any idea if she might be interested?

Castillo's position should have given her bully pulpit to improve the state's education system, and yet she has been timid and less than effective.

Taking on Gordon Smith requires a real leader. I'd be for DeFazio. Time will tell what the political climate will be, and what would be needed to win the seat.

Kari,

Apology accepted over the whole "sexism" thing (even though it sure looked like it was directed at my comments). And I stand by my criticism of Hooley, as much as I like her in her seat, I don't see her fighting with adequate tenacity statewide, nor Bradbury having anything new to contribute to a rematch that would change results from '02.

I'll be seeing Kitz in a couple of weeks and will ask him point blank about his '08 aspirations (or not).

I'll throw out a 2 CD perspective. Most of the candidates mentioned would fare about as well as Dem 2CD Rep candidates have. Those numbers need to be considered and placed in context with the rest of the CD voting patterns if unseating G Smith is the object. I don't have numbers at hand, but I think traditional Dem candidates like Blumenauer, etc. are going to be in trouble from the outset, very very close numbers. Obviously a candidate would have to appeal to the ordinarily Blue CDs, but taking out an "uncontroversial" incumbent is tough - see Greg Walden. No, I don't have a new idea on a candidate to offer.

What would the folks minimizing Earl's chance of unseating Smith have said about Wyden's ability to become Senator? After all, Ron was sooooo Portland.

Earl's about a lot more than bikepaths.

Time to look closely at HOW Ron Wyden ran his 1996 campaign. It was very well organized, it (finally after much internal debate) was positive, it was people oriented, Ron made great speeches and did Q & A in places like Salem, it made people want to support the campaign.

Identity and quality of the candidate is only part of the battle. The other part is HOW the campaign is run.

The problem for Blumenauer is that Oregon already has a Portland liberal in the Senate. Gordon Smith's best argument is that he provides regional and ideological balance to Oregon's delegation. A populist from Southern Oregon, such as Kitzhaber or DeFazio, would mute that argument. I like Blumenauer and hope he runs for Governor in 2010.

If Kitzhaber, given his very public re-emergence, doesn't go for Smith's seat I'd like to suggest a possible alternative: Jim Hill. He was saying some great things in his primary challenge to Gov. Ted this year and I think he'd make a great US Senator. I've suggested this to Hill a couple of times and he's given me a pleasant brush-off but I think he might consider it if I can show some support for a run.

<h2>Besides, outside of gaining a great US Senator, imagine the bragging rights of "lily-white" Oregon electing a black Senator.....</h2>