Oregon Republicans: Like Rats from a Sinking Ship
Kari Chisholm
In the last few weeks, three -- yes, three! -- Republican candidates for state representative have bailed out of their campaigns. While the Oregon House Democrats continue the drumbeat for change, the R's are scurrying away as fast they can.
By now, you know that State Representative Jeff Kropf abandoned ship rather than give up his once-a-week radio show. But you may not be aware that GOP candidates Dave Mowry and Tom Albright have also dropped out of their respective campaigns. (State filings here, here, and here.)
Mowry, an aide to Rep. Linda Flores, was the candidate running against State Representative Mike Schaufler. Albright, vice-chair of the U of O College Republicans, was the candidate running against Nancy Nathanson for the open seat now held by State Representative Bob Ackerman.
What's going on with the Oregon Republicans? Can it get any worse for them? (Sidenote: What the heck is wrong with our state's media? Not a single outlet that I can find has reported on Mowry or Albright dropping out.)
Meanwhile, be sure to head over to Earl Blumenauer's Help Earl Decide website. There's just a few more days left to tell Earl which Oregon House Democrats should each get $1000 from Blumenauer for Congress. Head on over and vote now.
[Big ol' disclaimer: I built EarlBlumenauer.com, MikeSchaufler.com, NancyNathanson.com, and OregonHouseDemocrats.com - but I speak only for myself.]
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connect with blueoregon
Aug 13, '06
You'll note that the TV commercial being run by Mike Erickson for Congress (5th US District, held by Darlene Hooley) makes nary a mention of his association with the Republican Party...
Aug 14, '06
While the aforementioned is encouraging (especially the Schaufler race), it's premature to view this as a larger trend with significance.
Whether it's dangerous ballot measures, Ron Saxton, or the bulk of state legislative races, the GOP and right-wing activists with their enormous sums of money will be a powerful force in this election year.
Do progressives and Democrats have the necessary sense of urgency this election cycle? Will turnout in this non-presidential year be sufficient to help Democratic incumbents? Will the bevy of right-wing ballot measures energize the Republican base?
A few Republican candidates drop out of races.......almost meaningless for the balance of power in Oregon.
In political terms, November 7th is a long, long way away. So much can happen at the international, national, or state level. What impact would a domestic terrorist incident have on the electorate? Castro might die....for the twelfth time; Saxton might actually take a consistent position on important issues; Westlund might decide to re-enter the race a la Michael Jordan; Wayne Scott could lose 100 pounds.....oh, sorry, that's impossible.
Aug 14, '06
Better yet, with Democrats retaining the Senate & Gov's office & taking the house in November, progessives can work towards making Oregon the most progressive State in the country. Surpassing even Cuba!
8:52 a.m.
Aug 14, '06
(Sidenote: What the heck is wrong with our state's media? Not a single outlet that I can find has reported on Mowry or Albright dropping out.)
That is a puzzler. They have spent the past seven years pushing the Democrats have no plan and they are totally disorganized meme. I guess it'll take 'em a while to get the Big Ship's course correction in to the pilothouse. Since the Repubs have never had a plan beyond the basic Something for Nothing, Consume, and Be Afraid, it may take the press a while to figure out what to do with an actual plan.
As for the potential for complacency mentioned by Levon, speaking for SD 26 and HD 52 activists and candidates, we are definitely in the fight.
We know that Ferrioli is spending gobs of money to spam with literature, autodials and pushpolls to get his candidate's name out there. Dirty tricks will abound. Incumbent Senator Metsger has been out canvassing and calling through the spring and summer along with local volunteers and the Bus Project kids.
Our challenger for HD 52, Suzanne Van Ormann is similarly nose-to-the-grindstone against a well liked incumbent Republican.
Rest assured. We are not complacent.
At our House District Picnic, we will have a large poster of the DNC talking points courtesy of the redoubtable Larry Skidmore of Milwaukie, and our own Jean Matson has designed table games built around these points. Our HD steering committee, (18 strong) met last night again preparing for the big post Labor Day push.
Come on out to the picnic in Sandy on the 26th. We'll be in Meinig Park, two blocks south of Hwy 26 on 211, at the gazebo from 1:00 to 5:00. Rumor has it that we may be hosting a few dozen Bus Project warriors after they finish their canvass for Rick down in the Clackamas area.
Aug 14, '06
i'd have preferred spending a few days getting to know all the candidates on blumenauer's site, but as i'm a busy person, i used strategery, voting for the people with the lowest percents next to their names (i.e., the ones most like to win).
i was wondering this morning what will become of the republican party. i don't think they'll be able to trick people into thinking that rich people's interests are american interests for much longer. but then what for the "grand old party"? do they quit? do they split? i wouldn't mind seeing separate libertarian and christian parties, because at least then smart folks wouldn't have to endure so-called libertarians voting to have government minders decide what goes on t.v. and the internet, and so-called christians voting to keep people in poverty.
9:29 a.m.
Aug 14, '06
By the way, Kropf's replacement has been chosen> [http://159.54.226.83/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060814/STATE/608140322/1042 Fred Girod] of Lyons.
Also- I don't know anything about the relevant laws, but is it OK for Kropf to [http://www.jeffkropf.com/Campaign1.shtml still be soliciting contributions] after his withdrawal? What would happen with money given to him - could he turn it over to his successor, or to the party?
Aug 14, '06
Story in the Register-Guard on August 4: Move prompts GOP candidate to leave House race
A Republican candidate is dropping his legislative campaign, citing his upcoming move outside Eugene's House District 13.
Thomas Ray Albright was set to face Democrat Nancy Nathanson. The winner would replace retiring Democratic Rep. Bob Ackerman.
Albright said he was preparing to marry on Saturday and would be moving into a home just across the district line.
State law requires a legislative candidate to live in the district he or she is elected to for one year prior to the election.
Albright's replacement will be selected by the Republican precinct committee, said Lane County Republican Party Chairman Bob Avery.
Aug 14, '06
Legally, Kropf can do several things with his campaign money: He can give it to another candidate, PAC or party; he can keep his own campaign account open, for potential future runs for office (so long as he continues to file the required C&E reports), indefinitely; he can give it back to the contributors; or he could throw a massive party for his supporters. The money is his to use for any legitimate political purpose.
Aug 14, '06
Isn't Schaufler a bit Republican-lite anyway? Or am I mixing him up with someone else?
10:04 a.m.
Aug 14, '06
phen- did you find that in the print edition? Even knowing the date and headline from your post, I haven't been able to find it on the SJ web site.
10:05 a.m.
Aug 14, '06
shoot. Register Guard. sorry.
10:17 a.m.
Aug 14, '06
Isn't Schaufler a bit Republican-lite anyway? Or am I mixing him up with someone else?
Well, he's no screamin' leftie - but he's a rock-solid Democrat and represents his district well. His endorsements are posted here.
Aug 14, '06
There is no way my opponent, Wayne Scott, could lose 100 pounds before election day, at least not without surgical aid. He would have to stop eating breakfast at the country club every day and all those free lunches from the lobbyists.
Aug 14, '06
Wes, Seek a higher ground. You're better than to attack your opponent's weight. Stick to the issues.
1:14 p.m.
Aug 14, '06
Wes, you're Libertarian candidate, right? If you're a Libertarian, aren't you in favor of the freedom of lobbyists to buy lunches for whomever they want - and the freedom of legislators to accept lunches from whomever they want?
Aug 14, '06
Kari,
Yes I am, just as I am free to not accept any and toss stones when they do. The voters are also free to take this into consideration and vote representatives out who represent lobbyists rather than the people.
Because I am libertarian, I can have and hold principles and do not feel the need to legislate them onto other people. That is what makes libertarians different. We don't use the force of government (and the guns that go with it) to enforce our values on other people just because we have a might makes right attitude like the standard two authoritarian parties.
Let them prove themselves crooks - it is our responsibility to react accordingly and if we don't - we deserve what we get.
-Wes Wagner
Aug 14, '06
Anon,
What I said is hardly anything compared to politics in the 19th century - and I was just reacting to a previously expressed comment in good jest.
As far as being "better than that" - it is not in my nature to treat an institution and system that has so oft proven itself corrupt with respect or admiration. To do so only empowers it.
Sincerely, Wes Wagner
3:35 p.m.
Aug 14, '06
Sponge: thanks for explaining that.
Some editor...can you fix my links above? I was jumping back and forth from Wikipedia too quick...formatted em all wrong.
3:43 p.m.
Aug 14, '06
Kari, dang it!! Please don't discourage the Libertarians from personal attacks.
I think that Wes is just the ticket for this kind of stuff. I just wish he were out here running against "The Nice Lady" that is our opponent.
Aug 14, '06
Yeah,
Brad Fudge is not going to lob any juicy ones at Minnis - you will have to have another boring campaign of people bloviating about "the issues".
How dull is that? And irrelevant, considering that once anyone gets elected they have to do what their party tells them to, otherwise their funding and support will get yanked.
We might as well have them all stand up and read their parties' platforms. Oh yeah, right even the parties don't even stay true to that either.
FYI, if you haven't been out knocking on people's doors and asking the right questions, you are going to be awfully surprised this election day. They are sick of all of it, even the "alternatives" offered by the left.
Wes Wagner, Candidate for House District #39
Aug 14, '06
hey bickford, while you're noting that Erickson's ads don't mention his party affilation, you should also note that almost no candidate puts their party on their literature or in their ads - R or D.
and phen, thanks for pointing out the real reason that the R running in Ackerman's seat is bailing. Kari's post made it sound like the R's have tons of candidates running scared, whereas the real story is a bit more down-to-earth. Not like the kid had any chance of winning anyway.
red.
4:49 p.m.
Aug 14, '06
Yeah, the college kid wasn't much of a serious candidate, that's true. But Mowry/Schaufler was supposed to be a super-close race, and an incumbent bailing out for a three-hours-a-week local radio gig?
Interesting times indeed.
Aug 14, '06
But Mowry/Schaufler was supposed to be a super-close race...
Kari: That was 2004, when Mowry came within 696 votes of Schaufler (closer than Brading got to Minnis).
The difference between 2004 and 2006 is that Mowry is not being supported (i.e. financed) by the House Caucus. Mowry's C&E (ID 4765) shows he received more than $40,000 from Majority 2004 and $20,000 from the Taxpayer Defense Fund in his 2004 race.
This time, that support is gone, apparently being shifted one district north in support of McCain's bid to take out Merkley in HD47.
Mowry's last C&E shows he has a deficit of $16K, with no apparent way to pay it off. He probably cut his losses after his caucus apparently cut him off.
5:21 p.m.
Aug 14, '06
Minnis & Co. are also busy spending their money in their own districts as opposed to elsewhere. That has hurt candidates like Mowry.
It will be interesting to see the next major C&E filing-- others may be in the same situation as Mowry.
6:29 p.m.
Aug 14, '06
SIX hours, Kari six hours. A week. Like I pointed out before.
Significant in two ways - one, he's got more of a job there than you suggest. Two, that's a TON of air time he'd have to give Farmer Dan...6 hours a week going back to February. Or pay him for - supposedly the bill would add up to over $100k. Anybody want to compare that to Kropf's C&E's?
He could "just quit" his radio job, but sticking his employer with that kind of bill would surely have repercussions - at the least, he'd screw his future in radio, but worse, what if they wanted to retaliate? $100k isn't exactly chump change. And screwing over your employer isn't the greatest resume item for a politician, either.
I'm as glad as you that Kropf dropped out, but I think you're off base looking for a "story behind the story." This is a great windfall for the district, giving a solid-looking Dem a fighting chance. But I don't think there's any conspiracy to be found here.
Aug 14, '06
Minnis & Co. are also busy spending their money in their own districts as opposed to elsewhere. That has hurt candidates like Mowry.
Jenni:
That's undoubtedly true. But if the R's have an advantage here, it's that they have two major fundraisers: Wayne Scott as caucus leader ("Majority 2006"), as well as Minnis with "The Speakers PAC", which she uses to support House candidates, separate from her own campaign account. Dem's, of course, have Jeff Merkley and FuturePAC.
At last report, "Friends of Karen Minnis" had $155K to use against Brading. Meanwhile, her "Speakers PAC" had $160K in cash to dole out to Republican candidates she favors. Majority 2006 only had about $44K on hand, but that will surely go up after their big anual fund raiser down at that golf course by I-5 in Wilsonville (something Farms). FuturePAC had $187K available, which is good news for Dem's, but only half of the combined Minnis-Scott accounts.
If the R's pattern holds to form, look for Majority 2006 to dump $40,000 or more into McCain's campaign, probably late September, but for sure in October. That's what they did in Mowry 2004 and they came within 700 votes of taking out a Democratic incumbent.
But there's no question that Minnis, Scott and Merkley face the daunting task of taking care of their party's candidates, especially the first-timers, while ensuring they don't get caught from behind by their own challengers. As we all know, the stakes are nothing less than control of the House.
Aug 14, '06
I just got some flyers on my door and Derrick Kitts seems to be embarrassed to mention what party he belongs to. I went to his web site and still coldn't find the word Republican on it. He even claims he's going to fight 'the culture of corruption'
Aug 14, '06
um, shawn. maybe you should join bickford in noting that almost no candidates put their party affiliation in their literature. That includes both R's and D's - in case you're still confused.
Kari, I think there's something more to the Kropf story, and I can't figure out what it is. I'm assuming it has something to do with the fact that him and the Speaker weren't always the best of friends...but I can't nail down a straight answer. I still don't buy the "R's are jumping ship" line, but you're right...there's something interesting going on.
red.
Aug 15, '06
Kropf's decision makes political sense to me, if he aspires to higher office at a later date. He can build up a following through broadcasting and come back later for a shot at the senate or a different state office. McCall did it by being a TV newsperson.
Aug 15, '06
Rumor has it that down here in Eugene Jim Torrey is set to bail on his race against Vicki Walker and that it was expected to be one of the toughest races in Oregon this year. Anyone else hearing anything about this?
Aug 15, '06
The Walker/Torrey race will be one of the toughest races in the state but we are going to win it with hard work and a great slate of Democrats in that district. We have Peter DeFazio, Ted Kulongoski, Vicki Walker, Chris Edwards and Nancy Nathanson running in Senate District 7. That is clearly a winning ticket.
Jim Torrey will be running with the slate of Jim Feldkamp, Ron Saxton, Debi - I think I'll go to lunch during the tough votes - Farr, and the yet to be named replacement for Thomas Albright. If he steps out of the race now, he may be able to keep the moderate reputation that he has worked hard to put forward. If not then he will have to stand with the Republican party and explain why if he is truly a moderate, he gave the maximum allowable contribution to Bush in 2004, his continued support of the Iraq war and his support of South Dakota like restrictions on women's access to reproductive health care. Win or lose, it will change how he is percieved in Lane County. My bet is on him losing with a tough, tough fight for both sides.
Aug 16, '06
So Bob,
Are you like Coyote...making up teasers to keep us all coming back? Torrey won't drop out. He has already sold his soul to Ted Ferrioli. He wants to be Secretary of State, Can't get that if you drop out. Besides, where would all the fun be? Vicki Walker is one of the strongest campaigners in the state. I am going to enjoy watching the Republicans see their golden boy go down. I have heard that ol' Jim is in trouble with the RG for stuffing his walk pieces in their newspapers at 6am (without paying for it), and I have heard something, maybe it was here, about some dirty tricks involving push polling. But really, if you heard a rumor maybe its just that. Unless you work for the GOP Senate Fund......
Aug 16, '06
So Bob,
Are you like Coyote...making up teasers to keep us all coming back? Torrey won't drop out. He has already sold his soul to Ted Ferrioli. He wants to be Secretary of State, Can't get that if you drop out. Besides, where would all the fun be? Vicki Walker is one of the strongest campaigners in the state. I am going to enjoy watching the Republicans see their golden boy go down. I have heard that ol' Jim is in trouble with the RG for stuffing his walk pieces in their newspapers at 6am (without paying for it), and I have heard something, maybe it was here, about some dirty tricks involving push polling. But really, if you heard a rumor maybe its just that. Unless you work for the GOP Senate Fund......
Aug 16, '06
So Bob,
Are you like Coyote...making up teasers to keep us all coming back? Torrey won't drop out. He has already sold his soul to Ted Ferrioli. He wants to be Secretary of State, Can't get that if you drop out. Besides, where would all the fun be? Vicki Walker is one of the strongest campaigners in the state. I am going to enjoy watching the Republicans see their golden boy go down. I have heard that ol' Jim is in trouble with the RG for stuffing his walk pieces in their newspapers at 6am (without paying for it), and I have heard something, maybe it was here, about some dirty tricks involving push polling. But really, if you heard a rumor maybe its just that. Unless you work for the GOP Senate Fund......
Aug 16, '06
So Bob,
Are you like Coyote...making up teasers to keep us all coming back? Torrey won't drop out. He has already sold his soul to Ted Ferrioli. He wants to be Secretary of State, Can't get that if you drop out. Besides, where would all the fun be? Vicki Walker is one of the strongest campaigners in the state. I am going to enjoy watching the Republicans see their golden boy go down. I have heard that ol' Jim is in trouble with the RG for stuffing his walk pieces in their newspapers at 6am (without paying for it), and I have heard something, maybe it was here, about some dirty tricks involving push polling. But really, if you heard a rumor maybe its just that. Unless you work for the GOP Senate Fund......
Aug 16, '06
So Bob,
Are you like Coyote...making up teasers to keep us all coming back? Torrey won't drop out. He has already sold his soul to Ted Ferrioli. He wants to be Secretary of State, Can't get that if you drop out. Besides, where would all the fun be? Vicki Walker is one of the strongest campaigners in the state. I am going to enjoy watching the Republicans see their golden boy go down. I have heard that ol' Jim is in trouble with the RG for stuffing his walk pieces in their newspapers at 6am (without paying for it), and I have heard something, maybe it was here, about some dirty tricks involving push polling. But really, if you heard a rumor maybe its just that. Unless you work for the GOP Senate Fund......
Aug 16, '06
sorry....something went wacky...typepad was acting a little slow.
Aug 16, '06
I'm just saying, watch for it: Jim Torrey will likely drop out. They have another strong candidate lined up to run, but I don't think they're as strong as the former Mayor. Personal reasons will be cited if it happens, I don't think there is any scandal but he could be done.
Aug 16, '06
I just love this site. Thanks for the smiles today. Go Dems!
Aug 16, '06
No way. Not going to Happen. The guy is in the catbird seat. He has a quarter million in the bag. Why would he shoot his party in the foot like that this close to the election? Unless the man behind the curtain is Jeff Miller (whom Vicki beat in 2002) there is no one else in North Eugene that has the name recognition that guy has. People don't hate Senator Walker, they just like Jim Torrey. Anyone else will have a difficult time overcoming that. Plus the district leans 7 points towards the Ds. And finally, I have it on good authority that Torrey's health is fine.
Aug 25, '06
Better for Torrey if his health has legs, as he'll have to out-walk Walker and her crews with the Bus Project and College Dems. And he somehow seems less a walker and more a lazy-boy, with his legs propped in the air.. Big billboards on 11th won't do it & a quarter-million allotted for multimedia hand-shaking won't trump flesh to flesh and door-to-door. And how many photo-ops of Big Jim reading to tiny Timmy can there be before folks decide that Timmy is actually reading to Jimmy? SMART was started by a Dem, I believe. The City Manager runs the show here in Eugene. Jim was just Mayor. Which is to say he resembled Charlie McCarthy perched on Edgar Bergen's lap, wooden jaws clapping as he pretended to talk. Or, in that case of little Timmy, read. And that's what we have here: Jim as the Great Pretender - no real talk and no real walk. Just a lot of donated money sitting in a comfy velveteen Lazy Boy.
Aug 25, '06
Any actually know anything about Torrey or Walker out campaigning where they can be seen? Torrey seems MIA.
Aug 27, '06
Did anyone else out there see the latest tv spot for Mike Erickson for Congress which features non-profit Executive Director Gail Hayes-Davis giving her political endorsement for Erickson?!
The tv ads ran for over a week August 18 - 26 on channel 8 durin the dinner hour, and also on the website: www.ericksonforcongress.org
Under Gail Hayes-Davis' name, the ad read "Executive Director, Young Audiences, and Principal North Clackamas School District (retired). Not only is this a violation of Young Audiences' non profit 501(c)(3) status but I wonder what North Clackamas School District thinks of this ad? I believe there are rules about pulic employees running around endorsing candidate, how is it different if they are retired but still claiming their former title in order to lend more clout to their endorsement? Is Ms. Hayes-Davis getting PERS money during her retirement?
I have a suggestion to their existing Young Audiences blurb, "You probably know of Young Audiences by the work we do in the community. You may have had a child at your door asking for support in the Run For The Arts"
(and my addition)
and now you know Young Audiences by our Executive Director's name and title campaigning for Mike Erickson for Congress!
At last check the ad has been revised and now does not list "Young Audiences Executive Director" - just the No. Clackamas Principal (retired) note.
Let's hope Darlene Hooley's camp got to see the ad while it was still running the entire message!
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