Does the One Ballot measure strengthen parties - or weaken them?
Much of the discussion about the One Ballot open primary proposal has focused on complaints from political parties that it would negatively impact their role in the political process.
Now, third-party and ballot measure activist Dan Meek argues the opposite: That the One Ballot measure strengthens the Democratic and Republican too much, at the expense of third parties.
From his Oregonian editorial:
Effectively, this means no primary at all, because each major party will list only one candidate for each office. This will give voters no real choice because the experience of other states has shown that candidates without major-party labels can almost never finish in the top two.The open-primary initiative would also ban all third-place candidates from the general election ballot, allowing only the top two candidates from the primary for each office. Thus, it offers major-party politicos the best of all worlds: no possibility of any third candidates in any general election and no bothersome primary election among major-party candidates because the party central committees will simply select which candidate gets the party label for each office in each primary.
So while the open-primary petition is portrayed as reducing the power of the major parties, its effect will be exactly the opposite. If that initiative gets on the November ballot this year, it will almost certainly be enacted, because it will not be opposed by the major parties. Why should they oppose a measure that will grant them such enormous new power?
Read the rest. Discuss.
March 20, 2006
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12:52 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
You have to have a very different perspective to believe that the One Primary initiative strengthens the power of the major parties. It must be a conspiracy since the party leaders are opposing the initiative and they are obviously doing it to deceive us into getting the ballot measure passed. Come on.
The parties will not be able to limit the number of people on the ballot. In fact in another part piece of the oped Meek gives an example of 10 Democrats and 2 Republicans running. As for the fact that minor parties might not make it to the general, the primary becomes the general with all comers. In fact I would argue that there is a greater chance of a minor party candidate making it to round two under the new system than there is getting any attention in the general today. In a crowded field someone who could get into double digits might be candidate #2. Of course that would require that they get more than the 2% of the vote they normally get.
Mar 20, '06
I need more information here. I read the initiative and was able to find the section in question. However, I don't know what it means. I'm hoping that someone from the Open Primary campaign can post here and explain the intent and likely result of section 10 (3) of the Measure. Also, I hope that someone from each party can comment as well (thanks John. can you address below language?)
Thanks.
Section 10. Printing of ballot for voter choice offices. (1)This section is intended to give Oregon electors direct access to information in the public record about candidates for voter choice offices without infringing on the rights of political parties and their members to organize and associate.
(3) Not later than the 63rd day before the date of the primary election, apolitical party may notify the chief elections officer that a candidate for nomination to a voter choice office has been determined by the party to be ineldigible to be listed on the ballot as a member of the political party in accordance with party rules. Note later than the 90th day before the date of the primary election, a political party shall file with the SEcretary of State a certified copy of the current party rule specifying additional qualifications, if any, a candidate must satsify to be eligible to be listed on the ballot as a member of the political party.
1:28 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
John,
I disagree and agree with Dan Meek.
Section 10.3 was added so that the law passes constitutional muster. As supporters of the One Ballot measure have argued previously in this blog, this provision actually strengthens the parties' hold on the nomination process.
That's why I consider this such a bizarre proposal. It won't open up the electoral process; it will shut it down. It essentially holds one general election in May (low turnout, low interest) and another in November.
Besides, if your reading is correct, are you really advocating for a system where a low double digit level of support moves someone into the general?
Let's think about what kind of candidate that would probably be. Would it be a independently minded moderate in the Ben Westlund mold, as the advocates argue?
No. It is much more likely to be a candidate of some extreme wing (right, left, up, down) with highly committed supporters.
If your surmise is accurate, this is another reason to oppose One Ballot. It will result in more extreme, unrepresentative candidates in November.
Mar 20, '06
From a closer reading, note that the language refers to qualifications for membership to the party, not qualifications to be listed as a candidate endorsed by the party. Therefore, it seems to me that any rule changes would prohibit someone from being a member, not just a candidate, of the party.
This doesn't seem likely to me. Am I missing something. Can someone elaborate on what types of new rules could actually prohibit a candidate from using their own party label that they selected on their voter registration card (i.e. if I am already a registered D, what new rules could prevent me from maintaining that status? "No short curly haired guys who live in Woodstock can be Democrats?")
I've got to be missing something here, or else I just don't understand the Meek article.
Thanks
Mar 20, '06
I think we should keep comments focused directly on the language and its intent/effect (Section 10 (3)). The law refers to membership to the party, not candidates running under the party label. Paul, could you re-post and relate your (and Dan's) comments back to the language in question?
Thanks!
Jeremy
Mar 20, '06
Section 10:
(3) Not later than the 63rd day before the date of the primary election, a political party may notify the chief elections officer that a candidate for nomination to a voter choice office has been determined by the party to be ineligible to be listed on the ballot as a member of the political party in accordance with party rules. Not later than the 90th day before the date of the primary election, a political party shall file with the Secretary of State a certified copy of the current party rule specifying additional qualifications, if any, a candidate must satisfy to be eligible to be listed on the ballot as a member of the political party.
Jeremy,
It's quite clear from this clause that parties can specify additional qualifications before a candidate can use the party name. There is no reason I can see that endorsement by a party convention could not be such a rule. The logistics laid out by Dan Meek should make us realize that such a rule would almost certainly be adopted by any party who wants to win the election. Am I missing something, or will One Ballot most likely take us back to the bad old days before primary elections?
2:12 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
Jeremy,
You read the language correctly. A party can define their membership, but not their candidates. They can not pick and choose one definition of membership in one county and another in a different location. Meek's supposition on what the party can do is just flat out wrong unless it wants to so restrict its membership in the state that it is no longer a major party. Keep in mind that it's membership is also defined by the national party and also federal election law so it is really restricted from playing games on this.
Paul, the whole thrust of the One Ballot initiative is that the office holders making it through the process will most likely be more centrist candidates, not more radical. When I said that a minority party might get to round #2, it is only likely under circumstances where both major parties have not put candidates forward that appeal to the center or there were so many of them that no one got traction. However, for a minor party candidate to get to round 2 still requires that plenty more people vote for that candidate than has been the case in elections in the past few decades in Oregon.
Mar 20, '06
There is a history of non-partisan elections that would indicate Meek is partially correct. The Minnesota legislature was non-partisan until the 1960's. There was a "liberal" caucus and a "conservative" caucus, but on the ballot no one was identified. Nonetheless there were almost always only two viable candidates - one conservative and one liberal - with the exception of where there was one, the incumbent. There were a lot in that latter category. Without a party label the elections were largely around name recognition and organization. Support of one of the caucuses was all but required. There were exceptions, just as Oregon had Wayne Morse, there were occasional eccentrics who won on the basis of their personalities.
However I'm not sure Meek is entirely correct, the candidates that will be able to participate without party support will be the guys with bucks. But you won't see three or four candidates duking it out in a primary even in safe D and R districts.
"They can not pick and choose one definition of membership in one county and another in a different location."
Its really not that tough to exclude extra candidates from claiming the party label - they can simply require public support of the endorsed candidate as a condition of membership in the party. If you run against an endorsed candidate, you don't qualify for party membership. There are no federal election laws or national rules that define party membership.
3:05 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
Political parties are in the business of attracting voters not excluding them. The scenario that Dan Meek lays out is not only possibly illegal it is highly improbable. Can you imagine the Republican or Democratic party telling a Pete Sorensen or Kevin Mannix that they cannot put a D or R behind their name because they failed some sort of litmus test? It would be political suicide and drive people away from the party in even greater numbers.
Specifically as it relates to Section 10 (3) it is important to note that the language is clear that we are talking about the right to place a D or R or G behind your name on the ballot. It is not related not does it regulate the right for parties to nominate a particular candidate as the "endorsed" candidate through a process. It also would not stop a candidate from indentifing his or herself as a Democrat or Republican in their literature or the Voters Pamphlet.
The parties must submit to the Secretary of States office 90 days before the Open Primary the process through which they will determine eligibility for individuals affiliating with the party. The idea that this eligibility process will be anything more than the current rules for affiliation with a political party (basically affiliating oneself in a timely manner) is far-fetched and fails to address the bigger picture of why we need this change.
The basic premise of the Oregon Open Primary is one ballot, one Oregon, more voices and more choices.
The state should not be in the business of funding the major political parties nominating process that excludes nearly a 1/3 of the Oregon electorate.
Currently nearly 30% of Oregonians are registered as non-affiliated voters. By the simple act of checking the non-affliated box when the register to vote they are excluded from an important part of voting process.
Furthermore by creating a One Ballot, One Oregon system the playing field is leveled for all candidates and through opening up the system to every voter we have a greater chance of nominating candidates that accurately reflect the constituents that they wish to represent.
3:56 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
John,
I know that the messaging around the measure implies that it will produce more moderate candidates, but to add to what Paul wrote, we do have the luxury of looking at how this has worked - or failed to work - in other states.
I have no doubt that the name "One Oregon, One Ballot" probably polls really well, but we should call this what it is: the Louisiana plan. You can accuse Louisiana government of a lot of things, but being a national model for good government just isn't one of them. And the candidacy of David Duke from a few years ago certainly doesn't fit with the rhetoric coming out of this effort.
I think we should be looking for ways to bring more people into the process, but we should look at other solutions before a change this drastic and ill-considered. Fusion voting's one place to start - it's worked here before and works pretty well in New York - even Instant Runoff Voting would be better than this.
Dan's certainly right about HB 2614: it's a terrible law to start with, but if it inspires people to support this measure, that will be its true long-term harm.
4:35 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
if what people want is a two-part election, to weed out everyone but the top 2 finishers, then an open primary should be ok. it should expressly state that the goal was to eradicate the parties from the general election.
but if primaries are for the purpose of allowing political parties the opportunity to select candidates representing the party, how the hell can they be open to all? "Hi, Joe Torre? This is Terry Francona. Can I please name your starting pitchers for the series this weekend?" that's how dumb it is.
if we want our elections to give more opportunity to more people -- third parties, renegade Rs and Ds, indies with a cause -- the Open Primary is not the way to do it. what we need to eradicate is money from elections, pure and simple. if all candidates have the same opportunities and resources, then we have an equal playing field. the Open Primary, however that is stylized, will never do it. campaign finance reform, like Pdx's Voter-owned Elections, can.
5:02 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
I think a lot of sponsors of this measure would agree - based on past support for campaign finance reform (Measure 6) - that there is too much money in politics. But this measure would almost certainly increase the costs of elections, and that really seems like a move in the wrong direction.
But before we go down this road, let's hear more about the problem that's being diagnosed. I asked this last year, and didn't really get a response, but will ask sponsors/supporters again: do people really believe that the Republican and Democratic parties are equally controlled by the fringes?
I don't.
The pattern to me seems more like Democrats benefitting from a steady menu of wing-nut Republican nominations for statewide office. That's a problem that has a clear solution under our existing system. But do people really think Ted Kulongoski, Bill Bradbury, Randall Edwards, Susan Castillo, and Dan Gardner are too out of step + too far left?
If so, on what issues?
If not, why change the entire structure of our elections to remedy what the real problem seems to be: lack of moderate Republicans. I'm a progressive, personally, I'm more interested in electing progressives than helping the Republicans field more moderate and viable statewide candidates. Isn't that really what's going unspoken here?
Mar 20, '06
Charlie B, What do you mean about Measure 6 campaign finance reform?
Do you mean the one which said "It is a felony to send money to any candidate who you can't vote for because you live in another district"? It basically said if one of your relatives lived in a different area of the state you would be guilty of a felony for writing them a contribution check. As I recall, that one was overturned by federal court (it was constit. amm.) while Measure 9 (the campaign finance reform measure which was law when those like Ryan Deckert first ran and were elected under contribution limits--before OR Supreme Court threw it out) was still in effect. I campaigned for and voted for Measure 9, but never had any use for Measure 6.
Or are you talking about a different Measure 6?
5:29 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
Different Measure 6?
Yes, different measure. Sorry - I was referring to Measure 6 from year 2000, which many supporters (but certainly not all) of the Open Primaries also worked for (Clean Money Campaign).
5:35 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
LT: The residency requirement init - and I agree with you on its merits - was Measure 6 from 1994.
5:43 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
Lot's to chew on here. Let me see if I can respond.
To my good friend Charlie who I agree with on most issue (but obviously not this one) you are unfortunately incorrect in your comparison to the Louisiana system.
Why? Cause we are not Louisiana. Oregon voters are smarter and more intelligent than to fall for some David Duke. On top of that the system in Louisiana is quite structurally different then what we are proposing. In LA - all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, run in an open primary on Election Day. If no candidate has more than 50% of the vote, the two candidates with the highest vote total compete in a runoff election approximately one month later.
The Oregon One Ballot campaign preserves the May primary except it opens it up to every voter regardless of affiliation or lack thereof and then the top two go to the regularly scheduled general election. It allows no opportunity to play the "suppress the opposition below 50% game" that we see in LA and it gives a full election season to properly vet a candidate.
Secondly - as a progressive I care about issues. Parties are secondary to me. The issues I care about right now are being systematically ignored or in most cases completely gutted in the name of partisan politics. Can anyone on this blog honestly say that we are currently getting great representation out of Salem? Isn't it time we put the issues, and Oregon, above any one party?
Thirdly - if this system is good enough for most city and country governments then why is it not good enough for statewide elections (the one difference being the 50% +1 rule some cities have)?
Fourth - I think many of us involved in this effort certainly see this as step one with the second step being CFR or VOE.
Finally - I have to say that this early debate reminds me alot of the controversy over Vote By Mail. As the campaign manager of that initiative I heard all sorts of dire opposition from the left and right. Did you know that democrats in Salem killed VBM in the legislature twice before it was taken to the ballot by a group led by Phil Keisling? Now VBM is hailed by progressives across the country as the best voting system in the land. I am seeing some strong parallels to this effort.
6:06 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
To my good friend Jeremy (who's work and opinion I very much respect):
I appreciate your responses, and I know that we're both interested in reducing the cost of elections and the amount of money involved in elections, but here's one scenario, and not that far off:
I live in Chip Shields district. It's heavily democratic, and when it was an open seat in 2004 there were two progressives facing off in the May primary, Chip and Tina Koteck. Chip won, but either could have likely gone to Bermuda after winning the primary and still beaten the Republican by double digits.
Why should we double the amount of resources it takes to compete in this seat? What interest is really served? I think in transactional terms it's a poor use of resources.
Also, yes, we're smart enough not to vote for David Duke. But we're not smart enough to automatically reject a candidate like Bill Witt, for example, so I don't think it's totally far fetched.
VBM's great - not perfect - but great... and just speaking for myself, I never opposed it early on or otherwise.
Mar 20, '06
"Can you imagine the Republican or Democratic party telling a Pete Sorensen or Kevin Mannix that they cannot put a D or R behind their name because they failed some sort of litmus test?"
I can imagine it pretty easily if the litmus test is party endorsement.
If the party sets up a process for choosing its candidate why should it allow other candidates to claim they are members as a qualification for office?
Can Mannix run as both Republican and Democrat? Can Sorenson run as both Democrat and Green? Its ridiculous to suggest the parties will let people run for office as party members against party endorsed candidates. It makes the party irrelevant. Mannix could run as both Democrat and Republican and if the parties let him, he probably would.
Mar 20, '06
I think people need to live in other states to understand that the Oregon system where the parties do not endorse in the primary, is not universal or even common. Minnesota has open primaries, voters are not registered by party at all, in which people choose which party they are going to vote for when they get to the polls. But they can only vote in one party's primary, they can't decide to vote in the Republican governors primary and the Democrats Senate primary. Both parties endorse candidates through a series of precinct level caucuses well before the primary. Then if someone loses at the caucuses, they can still run in the primary and sometimes they win.
Once you throw out the pirmaries, the parties will create some similar system for selecting their candidates. But its likely they will make support of endorsed candidates a requirement for anyone wanting to label themselves as Democrat, Republican, Green or Libertarian. And I would guess there will be more than a few other parties that make endorsements as well.
The pattern to me seems more like Democrats benefitting from a steady menu of wing-nut Republican nominations for statewide office.
I think that's right. And I think these measures are supported mostly by non-partisan ideologues who don't approve of parties. They don't approve of collective action, so they spend their time trying to make rules to prevent people from acting together collectively.
8:16 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
[off-topic comment deleted -editor.]
8:18 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
[correction to off-topic comment deleted -editor.]
8:19 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
[correction to correction to off-topic comment deleted -editor.]
8:29 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
[explanation of correction to correction to off-topic comment deleted -editor.]
Mar 20, '06
And I think these measures are supported mostly by non-partisan ideologues who don't approve of parties. They don't approve of collective action, so they spend their time trying to make rules to prevent people from acting together collectively. That is a major assumption!
There are over 50,000 registered Democrats in Marion County. Last month about 60 people showed up at the Marion County Democrats meeting to see a statewide candidate speak and answer questions. That's a fraction of a percent of the registered Democrats in the county. Does that mean most registered Democrats "don't approve of collective action"?
Or could it mean they have no time or energy because of work and family?
Please don't forget that when there is a close election (state rep. or above decided by less than 1000 votes) that it is the folks more interested the actions of the people they know than strangers running for office or involved in ballot measures who decide elections. These are the people whose activities and thoughts are about what their kids are doing, or cooking a pot of soup for a neighbor who just got home from the hospital, or planning a going away party for someone who got a better job and is moving out of state who decide that election.
NOT the folks who not only know there is a One Ballot petition out there but know who the sponsors are and are willing and able to debate the fine points of the measure in a forum like this.
9:46 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
I have not read the comments above yet, but I will. In the meantime, the Oregonian caused some confusion by their edits to my piece, without my approval. For example, I wrote:
"Effectively, this means no primary at all, because each major party will list only one candidate for each office on the primary ballot."
The Oregonian removed the words "on the primary ballot." That is the first sentence that appear in the original post in this topic. I think it would have been far more clear, if the Oregonian had not changed it.
Mar 20, '06
I can certainly imagine a system where corps (that outspend labor 5-1) pour money into two canditates coffers, ultra-right and medium-right. Then spend independent expenditure money to attack all-commers in the "primary," locking the office to hand-picked candidates. Much cheaper for them than the current system.
Also, Can someone explain what the following means?
Posted by: Salvador Peralta | Mar 20, 2006 8:16:56 PM
[off-topic comment deleted -editor.]
Posted by: Salvador Peralta | Mar 20, 2006 8:18:03 PM
[correction to off-topic comment deleted -editor.]
Posted by: Salvador Peralta | Mar 20, 2006 8:19:04 PM
[correction to correction to off-topic comment deleted -editor.]
Posted by: Salvador Peralta | Mar 20, 2006 8:29:50 PM
[explanation of correction to correction to off-topic comment deleted -editor.]
9:52 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
Jeremy writes: From a closer reading, note that the language refers to qualifications for membership to the party, not qualifications to be listed as a candidate endorsed by the party.
This is not correct. Section 10(3) expressly allows each party to determine which candidates are "ineligible to be listed on the ballot as a member of the political party." It has nothing to do with party membership. It controls who gets to list himself or herself on the primary ballot with the word "Democrat" or "Republican," etc. I would expect that each major party would adopt a "party rule" stating that no candidate can be listed on the ballot with the party's name, unless the party has endorsed that candidate. Then, for reasons explained in the op-ed, each party would be forced by competition to allow only one candidate to list the party's name in each race.
9:55 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
Webmaster, please close the italics tag in my previous message. Sorry about that. Maybe I can close it here.
9:55 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
I think that understanding my point requires reading the entire editorial. Here is it (actually, this is what I wrote before the Oregonian spontaneously edited it).
This and other Oregon newspapers have published editorials that follow this pattern. First, outrage is expressed about the 2005 Legislature's enactment of HB 2614, which bans any voter registered as a member of a major party (Republican or Democrat) from signing any petition for any independent candidate for any partisan office in Oregon during the 2-year election cycle, if he or she casts a vote of any sort in the primary election (on any race or any ballot measure). Second, readers are urged to channel this outrage into support for statewide Petition 86, which is portrayed as creating an "open primary."
First, none of the pundits now disgusted by HB 2614 lifted a finger to defeat it. The only Oregonians testifying against it were me and Blair Bobier of the Pacific Green Party. The press rejected our efforts to obtain coverage. Nor did any supporter of the so-called "open primary" offer even a single word against HB 2614.
Second, outrage against HB 2614 cannot logically lead to support for Petition 86, which in fact would not create an "open primary." Earlier versions of it offered a true open primary, under which anyone could file to run in a primary election and be identified on the ballot by the candidate's party membership, if any. But in 2005 such a system that had been adopted by Initiative 872 in Washington was struck down in federal court, which found that it violated the First Amendment rights of the political parties.
So organizers of Petition 86 added a new section 10(3) that allows each party to adopt internal rules determining which candidates, if any, get to be identified with the party's label on the primary ballot. This unique provision establishes a system entirely different from an "open primary."
Assume that each major party starts out allowing any member of the party who runs in a primary election to list the party label next to the candidate's name on the ballot. Say that results in 10 Democrats running for Governor and 3 Republicans. The likely result? Two Republicans advance to the general election, because the Democrat vote would be split 10 ways. Understanding that, each major party would be compelled to limit the number of candidates allowed to use the party label in any race to perhaps two. Even then, if the two Republicans each receive one vote more than the two Democrats, the result will still be two Republicans in the general election. Since the essential function of a political party is to elect its candidates, the unavoidable response of each major party will be to limit, to one, the number of candidates allowed to list the party label in each race on the primary ballot.
Effectively, this means no primary at all, because each major party will list only one candidate for each office on the primary ballot. This will give voters no real choice, because experience in other states has shown that candidates without major party labels can almost never finish in the top two.
Petition 86 would also ban all third candidates from the general election ballot, allowing there only the top two candidates in the primary for each office. Thus, it offers major party politicos the best of all worlds: (1) no possibility of any third candidates in any general election, and (2) no bothersome primary election among major party candidates, because the party central committees will simply select which candidate gets the party label for each office in each primary.
Thus, while Petition 86 is portrayed as reducing the power of the major parties, its effect will be exactly the opposite. If Petition 86 gets on the November 2006 ballot, it will almost certainly be enacted, because it will not be opposed by the major parties. Why should they oppose a measure that will grant them such enormous new power?
Mar 20, '06
Jeremy Wright wrote:
"Specifically as it relates to Section 10 (3) it is important to note that the language is clear that we are talking about the right to place a D or R or G behind your name on the ballot. It is not related not does it regulate the right for parties to nominate a particular candidate as the 'endorsed' candidate through a process. It also would not stop a candidate from indentifing his or herself as a Democrat or Republican in their literature or the Voters Pamphlet.
The parties must submit to the Secretary of States office 90 days before the Open Primary the process through which they will determine eligibility for individuals affiliating with the party. The idea that this eligibility process will be anything more than the current rules for affiliation with a political party (basically affiliating oneself in a timely manner) is far-fetched and fails to address the bigger picture of why we need this change."
Jeremy,
Law often becomes very different that its drafters intend. Section 10 (3) may have been written to address party affiliation of candidates, but it opens the door to party nomination. You are concerned with "why we need this change." The parties will be concerned with having their candidates win elections. Believe me, thats the way it works. There is nothing "far-fetched" about it. Since limiting the number of Republican identified candidates to one and only one will be the best insurance of a Republican making it to the general election, there WILL be only one Republican identified candidate in the first round. It will be the same for Democrats. Greens may allow more candidates because they aren't very concerned with winning.
Please remember the unintended consequences are just as real as intended ones.
10:14 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
Jeremy writes: It also would not stop a candidate from indentifing his or herself as a Democrat or Republican in their literature or the Voters Pamphlet.
That is correct. But 10(3) does allow the parties to limit, by internal process, which candidates can have the party label on the ballot itself. The vast majority of voters don't look at the Voter's Pamphlet.
Jeremy predicts that, with enactment of Petition 86, the major parties will allow several candidates in each race to have the party label. I disagree. Why would any party want to dramatically reduce its opportunity to advance a candidate to the general election by allowing several "Party" candidates on the ballot and thereby split the "Party" vote into many pieces? If the Rs allow 10 candidates on the primary ballot for Governor, each identified on the ballot as an "R," then they will quite likely advance no one to the general elctions, if the D's allow only one or two "D" candidates on that ballot. The vast majority of voters who are members of a party will vote for the only candidate on the ballot with that party's label (for each office). And the vast majority of people who vote in Oregon are either Ds or Rs.
I see an inevitable race to the bottom--a race to one "Party" candidate for each race on the primary ballot.
Since I think the Petition 86 will be enacted, we shall see in a couple of years who is more accurately predicting the future.
The crafters of Petition 86 did not need to take this approach. They could have written Section 10(3) so as to require each major party to allow at least 2 or 3 or 4 candidates for each office to show the party label on the primary ballot. But they did not write it that way. It is written to allow each party to limit, to one, the number of candidates running for an office who can display the party label on the ballot. This was an unfortunatele choice.
10:15 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
Sorry, Kari, but I forgot to chose the italics again. So I will do that here.
10:28 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
Jeremy writes: Political parties are in the business of attracting voters not excluding them. The scenario that Dan Meek lays out is not only possibly illegal it is highly improbable. Can you imagine the Republican or Democratic party telling a Pete Sorensen or Kevin Mannix that they cannot put a D or R behind their name because they failed some sort of litmus test? It would be political suicide and drive people away from the party in even greater numbers.
My scenario for what will happen under Petition 86 is 100% legal and, in my view, almost certain to occur. Jeremy says that each party choosing only one candidate to have the party label for each office in the primary "would be political suicide." He does not explain why.
What would be real suicide for each party would be to allow more than one candidate to have the party label for each office on the primary ballot, because deliberately splitting the party's vote among multiple candidates on the primary ballot will result in those candidates not advancing to the general election, thus defeating the essential purpose of the party (getting party members elected to office).
If the Rs allow only two Rs to list "R" on the 2010 primary ballot for Governor, how many should the Ds allow? Five, six, seven? Allowing only one guarantees 99.9% a place in the general election. Allowing two provides probably an 70% likelihood of advancing a D to the general election. Allowing five provides maybe a 15% chance of advancing a D to the general election, unless one of the Ds has very good name recognition and is very popular.
Allowing more than one candidate for an office to carry the party label in the primary election ballot is a recipe for not getting a candidate into the general election.
10:31 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
In the previous post, I did close the italics. I will do so again here.
Mar 20, '06
Folks, I think you are mis-estimating the way voters think. If independent expenditures decide all elections, how come the Swifties didn't carry Oregon for Kerry?
Rep. Barker was elected by something like 40 votes. Was that because corporations poured money into his campaign? Did Rep. Komp win because she spent more money? Or because people liked her (she'd almost won the previous time) and Al Shannon alienated people as an overly partisan Republican?
There are people very upset about partisanship and legislators who seem to pay more attention to their caucus leadership than to local voters. Open Primary or nonpartisan legislature would solve the problem of closed partisan caucuses (never mentioned in the Oregon Constitution). Most people have enough on their plate getting thru the week that they aren't likely to be discussing such things as "non-partisan ideologues who don't believe in parties". There are lots of ordinary citzens who don't believe in parties, or at least major parties. That is why over 20% of the population refuses to choose a major party when they register to vote. That is how Joe Keating got nominated by the Greens and Westlund may be an independent candidate.
I know there are some who would love to try out proportional or instant runoff voting, and those who have strong feelings for or against One Ballot.
But blogs are not the entire voting population, and until the various voting ideas get discussed in the larger population, we really won't know what ordinary folks think--any more than Rep. Knopp knew what he was talking about that time he said he understood why each and every voter who cast a no vote on Measure 28 voted that way, and that it was an easy decision for them. Do you think he made any friends among people who voted no for different reasons and agonized over the vote?
That should be a lesson to those here who "know" where voters stand on One Ballot or anything else. There are people who vote for someone they've known for decades, or because the opponent alienated them at some point. There are those who vote for or against anything simply because Sizemore or McIntire is one of the sponsors.
You never know when someone might tell friends "I was going to vote for him because his experience makes him more qualified, and then I heard his ad. I will not vote for a person who slams their opponent like that, I'll vote for the opponent to show what I think of that ad".
Voters DO think for themselves, and don't always support who "conventional wisdom" says they will support. If CW was always correct, what would Mayor Francesconi be doing these days?
10:46 p.m.
Mar 20, '06
Open Primary or nonpartisan legislature would solve the problem of closed partisan caucuses (never mentioned in the Oregon Constitution).
The non-partisan legislature measure is not going to be on the ballot & the issue being discussed here - open primaries - will NOT force parties to open their caucuses in the Legislature. This measure doesn't make that claim either and there's no language in Initiative 86 creating new open meeting requirements.
Mar 20, '06
That is a major assumption!
No. Its a deduction from the available evidence.
Please don't forget that when there is a close election (state rep. or above decided by less than 1000 votes) that it is the folks more interested the actions of the people they know than strangers running for office or involved in ballot measures who decide elections.
Even when the election isn't close that is true since it applies to about 90% of the people who vote.
But this statement is just more evidence of how dismissive the non-partisan ideologues are of the vast majority of people who have made up their minds. The fact is that small minority group in the middle has way more influence than its numbers warrant. Its that small group that votes to cut taxes the same day they are voting to maintain or increase government services.
The crafters of Petition 86 did not need to take this approach.
Actually, I think they did. What purpose does forcing voters to declare a party label serve if the primaries are open to anybody? In essence, it becomes little more than a semi-public statement of philosophy.
The purpose of political parties is to group together to elect people to public office and to govern once elected. Party endorsements matter for the same reason labor endorsements matter or environmental endorsements or AOI endorsements or NARAL matter. They tell people how a candidate is philosophically aligned with them. Its silly to suggest a party would or should endorse multiple candidates in a race where both might lose or to allow someone to claim the loyalty of party members without having gone through any process to vett them beyond declaring themselves democrats.
I think people forget, the purpose of partisan primaries is to let people who share a philosophy choose their candidate. It took the decision out of a handful of activists meeting in the backroom somewhere and gave it to everyone who declared themselves a party member. What the non-partisan ideologues appear to want to do is prevent the party from making that choide at all. Its as if we said anyone can claim to be a NARAL candidate just by saying they are pro-choice and NARAL has no right to limit their freedom to use the NARAL label when campaigning for votes.
Mar 20, '06
". Open Primary or nonpartisan legislature would solve the problem of closed partisan caucuses (never mentioned in the Oregon Constitution)."
This is naive nonsense. It will just create closed non-partisan caucuses. Legislative leaders still need to be elected. People will still create voting blocs. And they will still want to meet behind closed doors to discuss their legislative strategies.
Its non-partisan ideologues who are trying to convince people that somehow the problem isn't fundamental differences among the people of Oregon, but political technicalities, that is keeping the legislature from functioning. That it isn't that they keep electing partisan jerks to office, its that other people mistakenly elect partisan jerks to office. And that if you just declare them non-partisan the partisan jerks on both sides will stop acting like jerks.
You are right - caucuses aren't part of the constitution. How is a constitutional amendment going to eliminate them.
Mar 20, '06
LT,
Some voter do, indeed, think and act the ways you suggest, but it's fairly clear that party identification is a key factor to most voters. More importantly, it is a key factor to party activists. They are the ones who will make the rules referred to in Section 10 (3), and who will decide who gets to wear the party label. The voters get their choice after that.
One Ballot would be a political backfire. Parties would become more influential, not less.
Mar 20, '06
After 1996 May US Senate primary, where is the evidence that this is true: I think people forget, the purpose of partisan primaries is to let people who share a philosophy choose their candidate.
I was proud to be friends of Rust, Lonsdale and Dwyer, with whom I did share a philosophy. Bruggere's philosophy seemed to be "I've got money, powerful friends, and short snappy slogans--what more do I need".
I don't think the rise in registration outside major parties is about "nonpartisan ideologues". I think it is a statement against the "money is all that matters and only professionals know how the game is played" attitude which infects too many campaigns in both major parties.
As a friend of Jerry, Harry, and Bill, I wondered what had happened to the party I once knew (was once on Dem. state and dist. central comm. in a previous decade) when Bruggere bought the primary by outspending his nearest opponent 10-1 and his next nearest opponent 100-1. He had the blessing of the DSCC (some of the same disheartening DSCC attitude as what happened with Paul Hackett this year)--is that philosophy or just political games and raw power?
I registered NAV after that primary and stayed that way for 6 years, until I wanted to vote in a contested primary. Does that make me a "nonpartisan ideologue"? I have not made up my mind about One Ballot, but nothing here has convinced me it is an evil plot.
I do wonder what the philosphy of the Democratic party is sometimes. What that philosphy is supposed to be and what happens in actual politics can be 2 diff. things.
Today at lunch I was telling a new friend an old story--about 20 years ago, someone filed for state rep. in my district, and then the House Majority Leader recruited someone else to run in the primary. The first candidate won--primary and general. What philosophy was the House Majority Leader following in recruiting the 2nd candidate--other than power and perhaps personal whim?
Mar 20, '06
Tom, Having been involved in a state party rule revision, I have a comment about this: ..a key factor to party activists. They are the ones who will make the rules referred to in Section 10 (3), and who will decide who gets to wear the party label.
Rules revision is not done by some organism called "party activists" but by individuals. When I was involved in rules revision, it made a difference that a particular person was chair and some others were on the committee. I think if someone else had been chair and the members of the committee had all been different people, the rules might have been written differently.
And that is why I don't think anyone knows for sure what would happen with One Ballot, even if everyone here were to agree what 10 (3) means. Whatever happens, if One Ballot passes, it will be implemented by humans. And this being Oregon, anyone who pays close attention could probably go sit in the meetings and see what happens.
Look at what happened in the past year or so with the creation of the Rural Caucus and Chuck B passing that 2nd Amendment resolution in State Central Comm. Did anyone see that coming?
Anyone reading this, if you are interested in such things, try to arrange to attend a district or state Rules Comm. meeting. They can be most interesting. And as I understand it, all Standing Committee meetings are to be open to the public.
4:57 a.m.
Mar 21, '06
Since I've been out of the state for the better part of two years, most of the news I get is online.
I'm honestly not sure what to think of this idea. My feeling though is to vote against it, just for the shear fact that it's not clear what the implications would be.
Mr. Meek-you sure have a heck of a problem with the italics brackets!
Mar 21, '06
"I don't think the rise in registration outside major parties is about "nonpartisan ideologues". "
They aren't the ones who are proposing changing the way we elect people. I suspect the majority of them want to know where candidates stand and don't really have the time to carefully investigate every one of them. So they use party labels to give them a starting point and then look for where those folks diverge from their party's norm.
"it's not clear what the implications would be."
No one really does and it will obviously vary by election.
But take a look at an open primary with all the current candidates for Governor running against one another. Close to 80% of the voters are partisans who will be voting for the more partisan candidates. The guys in the middle will have slivers of that 80% and be competing with one another for the remaining 20% who are spread all over the politial spectrum. I think the most likely outcome is that the partisan candidates win, especially in a primary election where motivated voters are such a huge factor. But depending on how splintered the vote is you could end up with two partisans from one side. Mannix versus Atkinson? What a choice.
Of course, Mannix would still be a Democrat if this were the system we had. I guess thats what's meant by helping moderates.
Mar 21, '06
LT,
I have also been involved with the DPO, as chair of the campaign committee. Committees do have have leeway on what they write and what they take to the central committee. I was able to win support for some strong resolutions on campaign finance reform, but, of course, the DPO has little power to actualize such resolutions. When an issue is perceived to have profound consequences for the party's electoral success, however, the officers of the party and the central committee as a whole will not let the rules committee, or any other committee, lead the way. The matter of how many candidates wear the party label in the first round of One Ballot elections would be so electorally potent that it would not matter if Jesus Christ were chair of the rules committee. The DPO would adopt a rule leading to only one candidate identified as "Democrat" on the ballot.
By the way, I think Rust, Lonsdale and Dwyer were good guys too.
Mar 21, '06
Very interesting comment, Tom.
When an issue is perceived to have profound consequences for the party's electoral success, however, the officers of the party and the central committee as a whole will not let the rules committee, or any other committee, lead the way.
Are you saying that individuals can't make a difference in that situation? Whose perception of "profound consequences" will make all members of the central comm. shut up and take orders? Not the way it was when I was on state central committee--have things changed that much in 20 years? The party and the rules committee in 1986 was faced with a vacancy in the US Senate nomination when the nominee ran into ethics charges and dropped out. Talk about "consequences for the party's electoral success"!
The rules committee wrote rules --including an elder statesman, a former St. Sen. President, and another legislator.
The former St. Sen. Pres. gave one of the great speeches of his life. The lesser known legislator gave an OK speech. But, as the man standing next to me said, "Rick called every voting delegate in this room and asked for their vote, and Ed at some time in his life alienated every person in this room. "
Rick got the replacement slot on the ballot. Packwood was re-elected (with some union support, as I recall).
The point of my story is this--the "officers of the party" (for that matter maybe even the DSCC) may have wanted Ed as the stronger candidate. But human dynamics took over.
For a more recent example, look at the recent debate here over Nathanson and House Dist. 13. Do you know for a fact that if One Ballot were in effect "officers of the party" or the Central Comm. would have the power to give or deny Nathanson the D after her name, no questions asked? If One Ballot says "as few as 1 candidate" do you know that there would be only Nathanson (or only one person not named Nathanson) with the D? Would OLCV have the power in the party to deny her the D because she didn't score well on their scorecard? Or would all those who lept to Nathanson's defense here have more power in the party?
My point is that I don't know the answers, and don't think anyone does.
Mar 21, '06
Whose perception of "profound consequences" will make all members of the central comm. shut up and take orders?
They get to give the orders not take them. The question is why party members would select a candidate and then let anyone who wanted to claim the title Democrat. Why would they abandon entirely the purpose of the party which is to come together to elect the people of their choice? Of course they will fight over who to endorse and they may even decide to endorse more than one candidate. But why would they then let other candidates they hadn't endorsed use the D or R or Green or Libertarian label? I can't think of a good reason, can anyone else?
11:42 a.m.
Mar 21, '06
Personally, I think the whole point is moot. Even if this "One Primary" initiative both qualifies and wins, which is doubtful, it seems quite unlikely that section 10(3) is going to be enough to keep it from being held unconstitutional in Oregon. It's highly experimental law, of dubious benefit, that legalizes all sorts of political gamesmenship by restricting the unfettered right to free association as is protected under the Oregon Constitution. I'm certain the Oregon justices would take one look at it, and toss the whole thing.
General elections should remain general. Anybody should be able to enter them with whatever endorsements from all the groups they can muster. Whether it is OLCV, the Lions club, or a political party, it is not the place of outsiders to decide about the manner of how endorsements are arrived at. It's as simple as that.
p.s. It would be better to look at fusion voting. (In fact, I'm appalled that the Supreme Court allowed outlawing that practice - they made an obvious error.)
Mar 21, '06
I think this is all a very interesting discussion. After reading Mr. Meek's piece in the Oregonian, I have to say that he presents a very compelling argument. This would not be the first time that an initiative had been written to do something other than its proponents claimed, and would not be the first time that people misunderstood the effects of an initiative. It seems like a critical eye and suspicious nature are necessary to examine such proposed ballot measures. Given the recent attempts by the main parties in this state to consolidate power and shut out independents, the scenario that Meek lays it out is very plausible.
Another question I would raise is this: The stated intent of the bill is to help moderates get elected to the legislature and statewide positions. On what basis do we believe that this would help the process? It seems to me that it would inevitably hurt representation in the legislature, though it may aid functionability and efficiency.
Our legislature is in need of a number of reforms, but I don't think that this initiative represents one of them.
12:46 p.m.
Mar 21, '06
Ross Williams wrote:
They get to give the orders not take them. The question is why party members would select a candidate and then let anyone who wanted to claim the title Democrat. Why would they abandon entirely the purpose of the party which is to come together to elect the people of their choice? Of course they will fight over who to endorse and they may even decide to endorse more than one candidate. But why would they then let other candidates they hadn't endorsed use the D or R or Green or Libertarian label? I can't think of a good reason, can anyone else?
Because that person is a lefelong Democrat or Republican. Sure there can be a party endorsed candidate but other people have the right to make their case to as broad of the electorate as possible and let the voters decide. This is no different than two Democratic candidates running as Enviros against each other today and one has the OLCV endorsement. Are you suggesting that the other doesn't have the right to run?
There is no litmus test to calling yourself a Dem or an R when you register. Are you saying that there should be? That would be political suicide for a party.
The biggest problem with Mr. Meek's premise is that it fails to explain why the two major parties are actively opposing this measure if it would help them so much.
Again - why is this system fine for our local counties and cities here in Oregon but not for the entire states?
People seemed to be quite focused on restricting the rights of parties to assemble and endorse a candidate of their choosing. This intiative does nothing to inhibit that right. It only stops the taxpayer funding of that process. The green party seems to be able to gather and endorse a slate of candidates what is preventing the Dems or Reps from doing the same? Why should 30% of Oregonians be forced to sit on the sidelines in a taxpayer funded election?
.
1:52 p.m.
Mar 21, '06
1) Assume that all fears of the Dems and Rs enforcing party discipline don't materialize. A randomly generated field of 2 Republicans and 4 Democrats - assuming competitive campaigns - would still likely produce a runoff between 2 members of the same party. That doesn't seem fair or democratic. Especially if the overall vote total in the primary for the 4 Dems was significantly greater than the combined amount for the 2 Rs.
You could obviously reverse the partisan scenario and it still would not be a fair reflection of voter preference. Shouldn't the outcome rest on something more substantial than luck fo the draw?
2) Jeremy wrote: "Can anyone on this blog honestly say that we are currently getting great representation out of Salem?"
I am keenly aware that an anti-Salem message will resonate with voters, but that still doesn't really answer my central question from 5:02:
Mar 21, '06
Are you suggesting that the other doesn't have the right to run?
No, I am suggesting they don't have the right to imply they are supported by OLCV if OLCV has endorsed their opponent and not them. And if they are allowed to put Democrat or Republican next to their name on the ballot they are essentially implying they have the support of the party. And I am suggesting it is not in the interests of the parties to allow candidates to declare themselves as members when they are running against an endorsedd candidate so they will very likely make supporting the party's candidates a requirement for using the party name.
There is no litmus test to calling yourself a Dem or an R when you register.
What public purpose is served by having people declare a party at all when they register if everyone votes in the same primary? And what does that have to do with the question of whether a candidate can claim to be a member while running against the party's endorsed candidate?
3:45 p.m.
Mar 21, '06
Charlie -
I actually see this benefiting the progressive movement cause it will give voice to progressives that traditionally have a hard time getting any momentum in a primary election because they have failed to play the insider baseball democratic institutional politics. Mavericks who think outside the box and dare to go against conventional wisdom even though they may have some very good ideas. The same holds true on the Republican side.
I live in inner North Portland. The primary is the race. Very few people vote and the Dem incumbent nornally quietly sews up another 2-4 years. I think that is wrong. I would love to see a vibrant race between a progressive move-on type Dem or NAV and a more institutional Dem. A real debate of the issues that define each candidate before a much greater audience. In the primary and general election. I think that is healthy for our democracy in these unhealthy times.
As you point out - it also will likely result in more Republicans who have a "pro" in front of their name (pro-choice, pro-enviro, pro-anything) actually getting a chance to get elected and quite frankly I care far more about cleaning up the Willamette River or a woman's right to choose than I do what party a candidate comes from.
Finally, sure there are spoiler examples but you are forgetting that all of the NAV's will be voting along with every other registered Oregon voter. The voters will sort out the best two candidates. LA shennigans in this system simply will not fly.
As for Ross. To expand on the OLCV example - the issue is not the OLCV endorsement per se but rather does the non-OLCV endorsed candidate get the right to call him/herself an enviro. I think so. And it is up to the voters to figure out who more fits their values/ideals. And that will be the same thing as an endorsed D versus a generic D. The parties would be suicidal to go the route of refusing to let a lifelong D call himself/herself a D. Simply won't happen. They may not be "endorsed" but they will be on the ballot.
Thanks
Mar 21, '06
People seemed to be quite focused on restricting the rights of parties to assemble and endorse a candidate of their choosing. This intiative does nothing to inhibit that right.
I agree. But the claim seems to be that they won't exercise it to the full extent they can. The result if they do will be the "party" candidates will be selected by a small group of party activists rather than a large group of primary voters as they are now. There will be a democratic candidate, a republican candidate ( and perhaps green and libertarian candidates) chosen by party activists and then anyone else will have to run as an independents.
Again - why is this system fine for our local counties and cities here in Oregon but not for the entire states?
But this isn't the same system. Candidates run without any party affiliation in non-partisan races. And there are strange results sometimes, but no one pays much attention since they are local offices.
Mar 21, '06
Wow, I think we need an expert on game theory to figure out the optimal number of candidates for each party to endorse.
I am not an expert, Dan Meek's editorial got me thinking:
Assuming a competitive district, if each (major) party listed two candidates, it seems unlikely that one party would win the top two spots, unless both parties split their internal vote 50/50.
For example:
Doe-R 15% Joe-R 35% Moe-D 26% Flo-D 24%
In this case, Joe and Moe go on to the general election.
Another:
Doe-R 24 Joe-R 26 Moe-D 23 Flo-D 22 Nader-G 5
In this case, the dems get left off the ballot.
However, if either the dems' race or the repubs' race isn't this close, Moe passes Doe and we still get D vs. R in the general:
Doe-R 35 Joe-R 15 Moe-D 23 Flo-D 22 Nader-G 5
In light of this, what I don't understand is why the parties would feel they should only list one candidate. In this case, they will always have to run against another party in the general election. Why not list a 2nd candidate if the other party is only going to list 1? You'll likely still come in at least 2nd, and there's a slight possibility the other candidate will get caught in bed with Abramoff and you'll take both spots.
I guess my point is, the logic works real well that 10 candidates vs. 2 encourages fewer primary candidates. However, when you get down to 1's and 2's, having a 2nd candidate may actually be a bright idea, and then the voters do have a choice.
That being said, I'm still undecided. As a liberal non-affiliated voter (because I hate the concept of pledging to a party), I feel like I want to have more influence on the Democratic Party. However, I'm one of those who voted for the more-moderate Republican in the 2000 presidential primaries (from California, where I could pick which primary ballot to fill out when I voted), to sabotage Bush. And, I don't think that's a good thing to allow, since each party's members should have the right to choose their own representative.
Just wanted to get the game-theory math geeks something to ponder.
Mar 21, '06
Forget game theory--revisit a 2004 primary.
Suppose this had been in effect in House District 25 in 2004. Backlund (R- incumbent) Pike (D-challenger Thatcher (representing Measure 30 people, registered as R).
Given the number of people who were still saying a year later how they missed Vic Backlund in the legislature, do you folks really think Thatcher would have won in that situation? Everyone talks about "the parties" as if they are monolithic. In this scenario, if Minnis and Scott supported Backlund (not sure, but I think they supported their caucus member) would ORGOP really have had more power than the legislative leadership to determine who was the real Repub.?
There has been discussion about whether R or D could be in front of someone's name--but what about showing who is the incumbent? Some people vote on "does the incumbent deserve re-election--yes/no". That's how we got Bush/ Hooley voters in 2004. The trouble with trying to game this is that we have no idea who the individuals involved would be. Just as Jenny Greenleaf upset a long term incumbent DNC member, the same is possible for party chair.
Way back before most/ any of us were born, with the same old boring party system we have today (but before some of the progressive reforms), Charles McNary was running for re-election to the US Senate. I don't recall the story in detail or where I read it, but it went something like this. McNary was in DC and the KKK captured the Oregon legislature. Was this before the Direct Election of Senators provided by the 17th Amendment? The KKK demanded that he come back to Oregon to campaign. He didn't want to be in the same state with them and said so. The KKK or someone said "you could lose the election if you don't come back to campaign" and he said "If they have that kind of power I don't want to be in a state which would tolerate that". Now THAT's my kind of leadership.
For those who don't know, McNary was Oregon's longest serving US Senator--never defeated and he died in office following surgery which led to complications. Hatfield passed McNary's record maybe a year or so before retiring himself.
My point is this--game theory not withstanding, I still think humans control this process. And I don't think we can predict for certain which humans would make what decisions if this measure passed.
6:24 p.m.
Mar 21, '06
J -
Good comments. I think this is a classic example of two people with mutual goals choosing different means of going about them. I think there are other, better ways to go.
1) Re: giving progressives a greater voice... I think that's a good goal and one I share, but wonder if fusion voting might be a better way of going about this. Fusion solves the spoiler problem under our current system while allowing votes to have a double impact. And most importantly, it brings more people into the process in a meaningful way.
2) Re: party/labels vs. issues... I care more about core issues than parties and labels too, but nothing in this proposal weakens major parties. Also, the label 'Independent' is just as much of a brand as 'Democrat' or 'Republican' - it just carries less baggage.
3) Re: general debate. I think that it makes sense to really think through how a measure like this will affect our elections in real, transactional terms before enacting such a change. Yes, people dislike Salem. They dislike partisanship. But we should look at other solutions and measures before a change to our electoral system as fundamental as Init 86.
Mar 21, '06
Interesting juxtaposition in Charlie's comment: 1) Re: giving progressives a greater voice... I think that's a good goal and one I share, but wonder if fusion voting might be a better way of going about this. Fusion solves the spoiler problem under our current system while allowing votes to have a double impact. And most importantly, it brings more people into the process in a meaningful way.
Re: general debate. I think that it makes sense to really think through how a measure like this will affect our elections in real, transactional terms before enacting such a change. Yes, people dislike Salem. They dislike partisanship. But we should look at other solutions and measures before a change to our electoral system as fundamental as Init 86.
"really think through how a measure like this will affect our elections in real, transactional terms before enacting such a change. Yes, people dislike Salem. They dislike partisanship. But we should look at other solutions and measures before a change to our electoral system as fundamental as " captures my view of fusion voting.
I hope those of you who support fusion have discussed it at a family reunion or other gathering of non-political people. If you can convince such folks of the virtue of fusion voting, it has a chance. But I don't see how the people whose lives are full of work, family, and challenges will go "whoppee! a new way to vote". I think they are more likely to say "why do you want to complicate voting?".
If they feel that way about One Ballot, it will either never get on the ballot or never pass. I don't see how fusion voting (or proportional representation) wins over the folks who think voting is complicated now. That isn't just uneducated people, it is people with their lives so full of work, family, church, outside interests that they don't pay the same sort of attention to politics (here we are discussing politics in March) that folks here do.
Talked with a friend tonite who just started going door to door as a candidate. His first day out in a community other than his own was on a very nice day recently when most people weren't home--maybe out enjoying the weather. He encountered people at their door asking "election time already?". Just why do you fusion voting supporters think such folks would welcome fusion voting?
Mar 21, '06
This is really not that complicated. It has little to do with the problems of our electoral system. It has little to do with the intentions of the One Ballot authors. It's all about the language of the petition and how political players will act on that language.
I still don't see anything that would disallow parties deciding just what qualifies a candidate to use the party label on the ballot. Given that, I don't see any plausible reason that the parties would not limit use of their name to one [or possibly two if independent or third party candidates are not seen as viable] candidates. LT argues above that party behavior would not be so predictable, but the aim of political parties is to get their candidates into office - I hear this all the time. Limiting candidates is clearly an advantage, so the parties will inevitably do it.
This would seem to be a retrograde development for folks who are looking to deemphasize political parties. Non-affiliated voters would get a ballot in the "primary", but the major candidates on that ballot will have been chosen by party conventions, just like in the good old days.
Personally, I think there would be an upside to this. It would certainly make filling precinct person positions a lot easier. Of course, election of central committee delegates would become big time politics. Democrats might be able to extract pledges of feality to the party platform from eager candidates. Republican candidates already seem to tow the party line. On the other hand, independents will feel even more left out of the process.
Mar 21, '06
Tom, the question of electing pct. people brings up an interesting point. A friend who I met at a State Central Comm. election of officers meeting 21 years ago was once really active in party politics, has had leadership positions, got fed up and registered NAV. He got fed up with consultants as much as anything. He says he has no objection to primaries--they should just be paid for by party members and not the general public. Isn't there a state which in 2004 one of the major parties had to do big time fundrasising so they could hold a party primary (I think it had been a one party state but the other party started getting members.)?
You bring up a good question--would One Ballot change the laws about pct. people? Since one of the duties of pct. people is to elect a replacement on the ballot after a nomination has taken place, would that still remain in law?
But about this: "Democrats might be able to extract pledges of feality to the party platform from eager candidates"--did all the 2004 legislative candidates agree to the entire Dem. platform? If given a choice, would you rather win back the House or tell some of this year's challengers "sorry, you're great on labor issues but we don't like your stand on...." or "You're great on ----, but we don't like your stand on labor issues"? Shouldn't legislative elections be about the district and not about a bunch of people in a room somewhere writing a platform?
Tom, do you agree with every sentence in the Democratic Platform?
10:52 a.m.
Mar 22, '06
LT, I mentioned some reasons to take a look at fusion voting above, but in the interest of fairness and staying (relatively) on topic, I'd rather not get this post too diverted from the subject of Keisling's Open Primary measure.
Mar 22, '06
I have no problem with "taking a look" at all sorts of ideas.
I just think a blog is not the whole universe, and even if everyone on a blog agreed, that wouldn't take the issue beyond theoretical debate.
The question "but how will it work?" is valid for One Ballot, or fusion, or any other idea.
1:25 p.m.
Mar 22, '06
A lot to comment on. Just a few points.
1) Most importantly: if the one-ballot folks are really interested in increasing competitiveness in state and federal legislative races, then they should turn to a PROVEN mechanism for doing so: creating non-partisan redistricting commissions rather than an unproven and potentially damaging experiment.
2) I am VERY skeptical of any argument based on the "we are smarter than that". Really? Is this the same blog that complains about voter decisions on Prop 36, Prop 37, Prop 5, etc. etc. Institutional change and individual behavior are deeply interdependent. If we change the rules, in all likelihood other actors will change in response. Louisiana is an obvious place to look for evidence; if you want to point to specific ways that we differ from Louisiana, go ahead. But saying "we're just smarter than those folks" doesn't carry much weight.
3) Making a legislature non-partisan does not suddenly make issue differences disappear. There is every reason for legislatures to continue to affiliate by party or by other means as a way to manage the work of the institution.
4) The claim is made way back that this change will result in more centrist candidates. There are many, many embedded assumptions in this statement that the one ballot supporters never support.
For example, the strategic implications of this continue to be denied by the proponents, but they are obvious. In any system that allows more candidates onto a single ballot, it is possible to move on with a lower proportion of the vote. This has nothing to do with centrism at all--in fact, given what we all know about voting turnout in primaries among centrists and extremists, this proposal makes it MORE, not less, likely that an extremist will move on.
Are preferences in the Oregon electorate (or really in each of the legislative districts) unimodal and centrist? Are independents all located in the middle? If we institute one-ballot, will independents suddenly turnout in great numbers in the primary? Will the media cover the primary as heavily as they do the general, making sure that voter are fully informed in this "first general" election?
One ballot assumes all of these. 40 years of survey and elections research calls into question many of them.
Mar 22, '06
LT,
I mentioned some plausible effects of One Ballot, should it become law. I don't think this string is the place to get into them, but I will mention that, although I don't agree with every sentence inthe DPO platform, I think it's much closer to my stance on issues than the voting records of elected Democrats in Oregon.
6:17 p.m.
Mar 22, '06
Jeremy Wright says: The biggest problem with Mr. Meek's premise is that it fails to explain why the two major parties are actively opposing this measure if it would help them so much.
I personally have seen nothing from the major parties opposing Petition 86. Or maybe they just prefer the status quo and do not want to get caught up in the controversy that implementation of Petition 86 will cause. And maybe they are taking the Brer Rabbit approach. "Please, Brer Fox, whatever you do, please don't throw me into the briar patch!"
Right now, sentiment among editorial writers is against the major parties and in favor of "independents." I would expect the major party apparatchiks to nominally oppose Petition 86 in public while salivating for it in private.
But I do not have to explain their positions, whatever they may be. I have laid out what Petition 86 says, and it is simply irrefutable: It allows the major parties to limit, to as few as one, the number of candidates in any race on the primary ballot who can display the party label on the ballot. This is one heck of a lot different than the current primary, where two Ds can run against each other and one might be endorsed by OLCV. The OLCV endorsement is worth maybe 1% of an exclusive "Democrat" label (apologies to Jonathan, et al.), and the OLCV endorsement never, never appears on the ballot.
Jeremy then says : Again - why is this system fine for our local counties and cities here in Oregon but not for the entire states?
The system proposed in Petition 86 is not in place in any county or city in Oregon -- or in any county or city in the United States, to my knowledge.
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