This evening [5-6 PM] I will talk with energy analyst Charlie Stephens about life after Peak Oil [TVset, Portland metro cable channel 11].

Those who doubt the seriousness of Peak Oil should note that one of the theory's best known proponents, Matthew Simmons, has been a key adviser to the Bush administration on Energy matters [remember the secretive Cheney energy meetings?]. So, the Shrubbery is well aware of impending Peak Oil. One may wonder why, then, they are doing so little of what one might expect in preparation, such as crash programs in alternative energy and energy conservation in all areas of the economy. Well, it seems that the administration is taking a different approach. They are building military dominance over the important oil fields - Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran [watch out Venezuela]. They are curtailing civil liberties at home and paving the way for a neo-feudal economy. Sure, things may get miserable and unstable, but just think of the windfall profits when oil hits a hundred dollars a barrel!

Our best hope for maintaining a decent life is the building of sustainable local economy with walkable neighborhoods supplying jobs, stores, and entertainment nearby; locally grown food; and efficient transportation [bicycles and trains].

A good start. We're only 25 years behind schedule.

All for want of a few veggies City takes close second to San Francisco for sustainability practices

Ficker : This will create a vast energy crisis in the near future, which will eat up increasingly larger amounts of our GDP and destroy the cheap power we all enjoy. This calls for a serious investment in alternative and renewable energy sources.

JK : Where did you get this crystal ball that says that our oil prices are going to stay a bit on the high side. (Aren’t they still below the all time low). How do you know that renewable will provide for our standard of living, or are you counting on non-polluting nukes? Which of the renewables can provide huge amounts of energy 24-7?

Ficker : All these problems need a solution. Yet, our national government is not engaging them and does not appear to intend to any time soon. This brings me back to Oregon. We should not wait for the future to run us over; we should lead the charge into it. Right now, we should build a center for researching alternative energy, or increase funding to existing programs, and give tax credits to companies that help in this endeavor.

JK: So you think that you can do better than the Japan government did after the war when they targeted heavy industry to lead them to post war recovery? That was why Sony was denied the right to buy a license to produce transistors and came in second, instead of first, in the world to produce a transistor radio. Do you advocate choosing politically popular winners while real winners are screwed? That has been the history of planning. You DO NOT KNOW THE FUTURE, quit pretending that you do.

Ficker : Further, Portland should invest more into OHSU and Portland State University. This will increase discovery and concept problem solving. Agriculture should also get more development. To help small farmers grow healthier, safer crops, and relieve their dependence on giant agribusinesses like Monsanto.

JK: So small farms are our future. How many will they employ? At what wages? What industries will go elsewhere because small farms are our target and no land is available for high tech expansion? Which produces the most jobs, income and tax revenue: farms or Intel?

Ficker : This should be done in rural districts, which face unique problems, yet are often caught up in urban problems. Finally, new resources means new materials. Studying and creating these new materials, which in time will replace all the materials we use now, should improve our manufacturing economy by creating new exports.

JK: You must really have a good crystal ball to know what the future holds. The Soviets tried this and turned Europe’s bread basket into a country that had to import food. What is you secret to making planning actually deliver? I just have to add: “replace all the materials we use now” – you mean like we replaced the concrete that the Romans used with something better? Or maybe you mean a replacement for the wheel? Or are we finally going to get rid of iron? Silver and bronze?

Ficker : However, the State needs to retain all patents and intellectual property rights on this research. This will increase the strength of the public sector in our economy.

JK : Is this so that insiders can get special deals?

Ficker : However, we need to stop with the one size fits all education system. We should taylor programs to different student interests and styles. Some learn by hands on interaction, others learn more theoretically and analytically.

JK: Good idea. Diversity that can only be provided by a wide variety of ideas and approaches typical of the free market.

Ficker : We shoud fund the liberal arts, because the most creative mind is the diverse mind. Finally, give students the chance to succeed and fail not based on tests, but experience and experiment.

JK : Good free market idea. Especially in a free market educational system.

Ficker : I know many will wonder how are we going to pay for all this. I am not pretending to have all the solutions. (In contrast to what the previous paragraphs make you think). But, I wonder how we can afford not to pay. Of course this will require more schools, smaller classes and well paid teachers. Which means more money. But, imagine if the government had not built the railroad. Oregon would still be the distant frontier. Imagine if the government hadn't invested in the space race, we would not have the computers that drive us crazy.

JK : They were doing computer work long before the space program. Remember Bleachly park?

Ficker : And, what if, officials had let the high cost of electricty preclude them from switching from kerosene lamps.

JK : Yea, maybe the trend to small scale wind power in rural areas would have NOT been terminated in the 30's by the government’s rural electrification programs.

Ficker : I do not think that Oregon can solve all the country's or the world's problems.

JK : The real question is can Oregon solve its own problems of wasting money on grandiose schemes instead of the basics. (Convention center expansion, convention center hotel, $200++ million to jumpstart our yuppie playground (the “Pearl”), $2 billion for a toy train set that carries less than one lane of freeway, $250 million for North Macadam development, $30 million out of the economically depressed Interstate Avenue area to pay for part of Vera’s Interstate toy train, $5-15 million out of the economically depressed Lents to pay for part of I205 toy train.)

Ficker : This is not about solving them, but instead creating the will to change, as we have always had in the past. To explore ideas and come up with bold new plans.

JK : I have a better bold new plan: 1. Establish the best school system in the country through a private-public partnership, each partner competing with the other. 2. Make every neighborhood crime free. (Basic approach: “we are going to ignore jay walkers and drug users, but if you do something intending to hurt others, you WILL be in jail) 3. Get rid of congestion. (Build road capacity at about the rate of population increase. Note that toy trains have NEVER reduced congestion anywhere outside of, maybe, NYC.) 4. City should quit trying to re-engineer people’s habits, instead, accommodate people’s needs. Better yet just bug off. 5. Become the low tax haven of the country by cutting wasteful schemes and personal. (Think Steve Goldschmidt at the school district, $250 million N. Macaddam, money losing convention center) Have PDC sell off its $100 million+ in property, stop selling PDC property below market value. 6. Get rid of all petty regulations (license required for sidewalk A board, no murals on side of your building etc)

Thanks JK

Tom Civiletti: Our best hope for maintaining a decent life is the building of sustainable local economy with

JK: Have we not been sustainable for the last 2000-3000 years of civilization? What unsustainable act did Cleapatria do that hurt us today?

Tom Civiletti: walkable neighborhoods supplying jobs,

JK: How will this increase our choice in jobs in order to get the best job? Or are we to take a low paying job and thus a lower standard of living, because it is walkable?

Tom Civiletti: stores, and

JK: Does this mean that i can walk to a Fred Meyer, Safeway, Wall Mart Home Depot and Frys? Or do I have to pay higher prices at little local stores and thus have a ower standard of living?

Tom Civiletti: entertainment nearby;

JK: So will there be 30 movie screens, a government repository library, a good assortment of tavern, bars, strip joints and a XXX book store within walking distance?

Tom Civiletti: locally grown food;

JK: Will this be lower cost food, or will we have to suffer a lower standard of living to afford locally grown food?

Tom Civiletti: efficient transportation [bicycles and trains].

JK: How are trains efficient? The numbers that I got from TriMet indicate that they use energy at about the same rate as small cars, but unlike trains, cars always go where you want to go. Also cars are much cheaper than toy trans which, according to triMet numbers, cost about the samne as taxi fare (TriMet riders only pay about 20% of the actual cost - taxpayers pay the rest). One last thing: cars are powered by gasolene, which emits less CO2 that coal which powers much of light rail. Also coal emits radium and uranium into the air. Cars do not.

Thanks JK

Jim,

No time to go into this, but all of your points above are invalid.

Posted by: Tom Civiletti | June 4, 2005 01:19 AM

"Our best hope for maintaining a decent life is the building of sustainable local economy with walkable neighborhoods supplying jobs, stores, and entertainment nearby; locally grown food; and efficient transportation [bicycles and trains]."

That is such kookery it doesn't deserve even the laughter.

Posted by: Tom Civiletti | June 4, 2005 01:19 AM

This evening [5-6 PM] I will talk with energy analyst Charlie Stephens about life after Peak Oil [TVset, Portland metro cable channel 11].

JK: It is 5pm & ch 11 has music - when is your thing on PCA in Portland.

PS: did you know that the Feds set up an agency to deal with running our of oil? They did this about 100 years ago - USGS.

Thanks JK

Tom, in his wisdom, is rcoomending more of the fine automoble free successes such as Orenco Station, The Beaverton Round, Cascade Staion and other delusional and wasteful planning.

Posted by: Tom Civiletti | June 4, 2005 01:19 PM

Jim,

No time to go into this, but all of your points above are invalid.

JK: I'am eageraly awaiting your FACT BASED rebuttal.

Thanks JK

Fact:

There is a very high probability that within 10 years, the high price of fossil fuel will make the current US way of life obsolete.

I know it is near impossible for many libertarian, conservative, and anti-government types to accept, but the planners and the hemp wearing granolas have been on the right path all along. It's enough to piss you off, isn't it? Well, try to get over it. There may be life after smashed delusions.

Posted by: Tom Civiletti | June 5, 2005 12:27 PM Fact: There is a very high probability that within 10 years, the high price of fossil fuel will make the current US way of life obsolete.

JK: That is not a fact, that is a guess made by chicken little types. Try these genuine facts: 1. The USGS was formed about 100 years ago to deal with our imminent running out of oil. 2. Every few years someone predicts we are running out of oil. We haven’t yet. 3. The club of rome’s “limits to growth” predicted that we would run out of most raw materials by the 80' (or 90's??), We didn’t. Not only did we not run out, most raw materials got more plentiful as evidenced by their price dropping in real terms. Another failed chicken little. 4. “The Population Bomb” predicted runaway world population. It is not. Every new UN prediction puts peak population lower and closer. Another failed chicken little. 5. Common mistakes of chicken little are: a. Failing to realize that man is smart and adaptable. b. Failing to account for substitution of lower cost alternatives as prices rise. c. Failing to realize that more supply becomes available as the price rises. 6. Remember price controls on gasolene (or was it natural gas?) The price was always at the limit until the limit was lifted. People like you predicted financial ruin. Turned out that was the peak price for many years.

What is probably going on here is the old “music man” game: “We” have a problem and “I” have the solution (which will make me rich and you pay for it). Try to remember this next time you hear this crap.

(I would not be surprised to find some profit motive behind the current round of running out of oil, like Keyto really being about profits not global warming.)

Tom Civiletti: I know it is near impossible for many libertarian, conservative, and anti-government types to accept, but the planners and the hemp wearing granolas have been on the right path all along. It's enough to piss you off, isn't it? Well, try to get over it. There may be life after smashed delusions.

JK: Tom, you need to accept that you have been sucked in by a bunch of fact and logic challanged people. They should study science and logic before opening their mouths.

Thanks JK

Tom, one more thing. Here are a few undeniable facts about climate change:

NewsWeek: The coming Ice age (http://209.210.229.130/Misc/1950_Ice_Age.pdf) Have fun JK

Jim,

Your points 1-6 are either invalid or beside the point. If you will read extensively from the sites below, you will find that the people warning about imminent Peal Oil include several prominent petroleum geologists, energy experts, USDOE, Henry Kissinger, and a prominent adviser to the Bush administration on energy policy. If you are averse to reading, watch "End of Suburbia" for an easily digested video presentation of the basics.

In the 1970's the oil supply in the US peaked and declined, just as the Hubbert Curve predicted. We decided to become dependent on worldwide sources of petroleum. Worldwide production is about the peak and decline in the same manner. Where shall we source our cheap fuel now, mars, perhaps?

The reality is that there will be no source of cheap energy, and this will change human life, especially US life, profoundly. We can wait for the crash and possibly recover from a depression and/or societal chaos, or we can perpare for the changes to come.

Frankly, I don't feel the need to convince you of this. The time to be proactive is short. People willing to look beyond the corporate media blackout on this issue and to seek out available infomation will be able to move us toward change. The rest - including you, I presume - will be ballast.

Peak Oil resources:

www.drydipstick.com

www.peakoil.net

www.energybulletin.net

www.peakoil.org

www.hubbertpeak.com

www.endofsuburbia.com

Civiletti: Your points 1-6 are either invalid or beside the point.

JK: I see, you just ignore the long history of chicken littles frauds being proven wrong.

Civiletti: If you will read extensively from the sites below,

JK: Would you like me to point you to extensive web sites on astrology and flying saucers? Just as credable. Bet I could find a few stars names there too.

Civiletti: You have a right to remain deluded, but DO NOT TRY TO FORCE OTHERS TO LIVE IN YOUR DELUSION.

JK