Well, he's not nearly as liberal as most people think. Just look at his supporters and his votes.

Interesting question. I'd doubt it. He was seemingly really interested in running for mayor -- and said as much for many months and to many people. Sounds like the non-announcement for this one has already happened.

Though it was kind of a non-denial denial, wasn't it?

Contrary to what Jim Edmunson said, I think K's in pretty big trouble, and there are legitimate reasons to be concerned that his lack of popularity among Democrats (58 percent support among Democrats) will suppress the Democratic vote and hurt candidates down-ticket, making it difficult to hold our slim majority in the Senate and all-but-impossible to take back the House.

Of course, Mannix is also weaker than he was last time, and the other rumor that I've heard is that Minnis might be thinking about running for Governor, in part due to concerns that she won't be able to beat Rob Brading should he choose to have a re-match, particularly if the Democratic establishment gets behind Brading in that district, which is +2000 Democrat in terms of voter registration.

The US House member from Oregon who would make a better governor and have a better chance of winning statewide is Peter DeFazio.

DeFazio explored running for governor in 2002. Oh, how I wish he had.

Even with Earl stumping for Kerry and missed some votes in DC--he has better long term value for the state of Oregon in my eyes. Defazio has even more pluses than Earl.

From the folks I talk to down here in Jefferson, Governor K is viewed as nice but ineffectual...and he's got a bit of the Goldschmidt taint.

Blumenauer is not well known at all...and he'd definitely be an acquired taste at best, both for his viewpoints and his geography. But, I still think he (or most other Democratic candidates) could win the governorship if the Republicans run too conservative again...which they probably will.

DeFazio is much better known here...his district gets him coverage in both Eugene and our media center Medford. Regardless if he has a genuine opponent, DeFazio saturates the airwaves when campaigning. He does well with the moderates not because most of them like his liberalism, but because he fights hard for his district...same with Walden.

Having known both gentlemen for close to 2 decades, I'd say if one of our Congressmen were to run for Gov. it should be DeFazio. He has a better clue about the lives of ordinary Oregonians. Earl should stay in Congress and maybe run for US Senate in 2008.

Call me a cynic, but I generally don't totally believe incumbents will always run for re-election. And if Ted decided to retire, the most interesting candidates for Gov. might well be Randall Edwards, Kurt Schrader, Ben Westlund.

Earl who? Never saw him on the right side of the Cascade Mountains.

From what I have seen of him, he has a melancholy nature, a quick temper, and a concern-list that is just not going to play well across the state. Wouldn't he have run for mayor .... if he thought he would have won?

If he didn't think he could win Portland's mayoral seat (which we didn't when he ran), I don't know how he thinks he could win Oregon's governorship.

When I listened to him in his mayoral-exploratory phase, I found his focus limited to party & agency insiders, and even that very timid.

And how does Gov. K's statements about Iraq today (apparently reported on KATU and subsequently at my blog and nowhere else I've seen yet) fit into this picture? Is Ted trying to solidify his support on the left for a re-election run or is he suddenly emboldened by the fact (as suggested by LT) that he's NOT planning to run in 2006???

Could it possibly be that some people have just reached their limit on Iraq, with no end in sight? I think it is interesting that Gov. Kulongoski's angry remarks sound like a former Marine who has been to so many funerals and it begins to seem worthless. As for "support on the left", where do "the left" have meetings? Is this just an imagined group of people because that grouping doesn't require talking to individuals about what they believe?

If someone thinks it is high time we have an honest debate in this country about the cost and operation of the Iraq War, are they "on the left"? Why? Because those "on the right" say "Yes, Mr. President, you have been infallible in carrying out the Iraq War"? Aside from Rumsfeld and Cheney, how many public figures have said that recently? Where is the evidence of any cohesive group outside of those that do have meetings and events (Bus Project, ROP, DFA, party groups, etc)?

As for whether Ted runs for re-election, I have no clue. But what I have seen recently is the old fighting Ted I knew as a state senator more than 20 years ago--a guy who went with his conscience no matter where that put him politically. And yes, no sarcasm, I believe there is such a thing as elected officials with consciences.

I think terms like "the left" are meaningless. And I think "the right" is also a worthless term. Chuck Hagel, John McCain, Rumsfeld, Cheney, Colin Powell, John Warner--which of these are members of "the right" and which think and speak for themselves? And how have each of them responded to today's resolution about a timetable to leave Iraq sponsored by Cong. Walter "freedom fries" Jones? He's the NC Cong. so outraged at the French a couple years ago he had the name of a potato dish on Capitol Hill changed.

Jones represents the cong. district which includes Camp Lejune. He said his mind was made up on this resolution while attending a military funeral at Camp Lejune. But gosh, if we have 2 vastly different political figures being affected by attending military funerals, perhaps this is more about real life than about ideology?

Just because certain political labels have been carried over from the previous century does not mean we are required to use them.

Here is a radical notion: people think for themselves!

The AFL-CIO may be breaking up, one quarter of Oregonians don't register with a major party, there are people who have friends across partisan and geographic lines. But we are supposed to believe there are 2 boxes (right/ left, major parties) and all citizens are forced to be in one of those 2 boxes or be a spectator? I don't think so.

Perhaps it is time to deal with the reality that details matter, individuals are allowed to make individual decisions, and the broadbrush generalizations about people and issues don't really have much to do with the reality of 2005.

LT:

I happen to agree with most of your points about labels, which is why I favor an open primary (of some sort) and/or non-partisan elections throughout Oregon. Do you?

As to Ted and some of the more recent "converts" for an exit strategy, I simply wonder: what took 'em so long? If they have a conscience about this, couldn't we have seen it two years ago when the first of those funerals were happening?

As I say on my blog, I am grateful that Gov. K has come around (I really, truly am). But I feel a little sick when I think about the time passed, soldiers buried and money blown in Iraq while our "so-called" leaders have remained largely silent all this time.

I attended an event last night that featured Rachel Corrie's parents and members of the Nasrallah family whose home Rachel was trying to protect when she was killed by the Israeli bulldozer. During the Q & A, someone in the crowd spoke about Kulongoski's recent comments at a fundraiser for AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee). This might have already been written about on Blue Oregon, but just in case folks (like me) missed it, here's just a smidgen of his remarks:

"Several years ago I found out that my fraternal Grandmother from Poland was Jewish. But I stand before you today not just as someone with a newly discovered Jewish background. I am an Oregonian. An American. And a Zionist. I remember the birth of Israel – and I believe deeply that a permanent and secure Jewish homeland is morally right, historically justified, and strategically necessary.

Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East – and the one Middle East nation whose friendship with the United States is based on shared values. Political parties and leaders may change here – or in Israel. But the ties that bind our two nations together – freedom, democracy, peace, and the rule of law – are unbreakable.

I do have one small bone to pick with AIPAC: You signed away my good friend and political advisor, Steve Schneider who is here tonight but is working in your Washington office. Steve asked me what I thought of the job offer. I told him: 'Fight for the Jews and fight for Israel.'"

His full remarks are here: http://governor.oregon.gov/Gov/speech_030805.shtml

Fight for the Jews, Ted? How exactly? With bulldozers, perhaps? Those don't work. Ask the Corries. And the Nasrallahs. Is it too much to ask that anyone who wants to work (versus fight) for peace for the Jews must be willing (to at least MENTION) peace for the Palestinians too? It at least takes a certain amount of enlightenment. So bring on Blume, bring on the Faz. Either of them would have my vote over GAH.

I support the nonpartisan bill and anything that allows for more participation in nomination of major candidates.

As for the Iraq War and "conscience", there really isn't a lot that those of us in Oregon can do about a federal policy decided on in DC. I realize there are those who say things like "If only that public figure had said and done what I thought they had said and done...". I don't think such statements solve anything.

With the exception of Wyden and Wu (who were active and well known having lived in Oregon for years ) most of our Congressional delegation and our nominees for statewide office have served in local or state elective office before running for something larger. Even Saxton and Zupancic had been school board members.

I agree with something Barbara Roberts once said about the need to have more people who are elected to lower office before they run for higher office.

And being the descendent of one politician elected statewide and friends of some who have been elected statewide or on the federal level, I say it is easier to complain about what a public figure has done wrong than to get in there and do the hard work yourself.

It will be interesting to see if Jason Atkinson runs for Gov. If he gets out there and speaks to the Rotary Clubs and the PTAs and the county fairs and takes questions from all comers, he could be a breath of fresh air for the GOP.

But if he neither totally agrees with nor totally condemns Saxton's bashing of public employee unions; nor gives his own detailed plan to deal with PERS and challenges Mannix to explain what would happen under his 401k proposal if (in the words of a friend)"something like Enron got ahold of the 401k and left the retiree with nothing"; then he is no better than any public figure telling us that their conscience should guide our behavior.

We ARE allowed our own opinions about Iraq, PERS, Terri Schaivo, tax breaks and the need for tax reform, etc.

No one has the right to say "all people of conscience believe..." about anything and expect people to obey that statement.

Watchdog,

Yep. Happy to explain. I have no direct connection to Kate's office other than the fact that she represents my turf of land here in the Hawthorne District. Not sure if you caught my rant a couple of weeks ago about Kate's co-sponsorship of SB 1028 which will be a tragic first step towards privatizing our waterways, but that was the first time I used her e-mail addy. I'm ticked off at her, and I think it's important that people contact her. If her contact info wasn't part of public domain - accessible on every pertinent legislative site out there - I wouldn't have used it. I'll use a different one soon enough. I'm thinking Bush will be next. He's deserving of some love letters too.

Good catch. Your name fits you well.

Someone earlier ask the question, "Would a Democrat so closely tied to Portland have a chance to win?" Being a liberal Democrat who lives a far distance from Portland I would say his chances were about equal to the Portland State winning the College Baseball World Series. (For those who don't know, PSU doesn't have a baseball team)

K got about 46% of the vote from Gilliam County. Blumenauer might get 10%. And I would guess that goes for about 28 other counties in Oregon.

<h2>There is only one way Mannix could get elected, that would be for Blumenauer to be the Dem. candidate. Now DeFazio, that's a whole different ballgame. Match up Peter and Mannix and I would predict Defazio could easily get 53-55% of the vote in the majority of those same 28 counties.</h2>