Mannix, Kulongoski, etc.
The Oregonian reports today that Kevin Mannix is almost certainly running for Governor.
Mannix said he would step down as party chairman once he formally announces his run for governor. That would probably come sometime after the Legislature finishes its 2005 session. For the record, he said he hasn't definitely decided to run for governor, but he's not coy about his ambitions. Told that many Republican activists think he's already running for governor, Mannix replied: "They're very astute observers."
Meanwhile, columnist Steve Duin takes a whack at Governor Ted Kulongoski.
He speaks of leading us somewhere, then disappears, leaving the heavy lifting for the foundation boards, the local-option committees and the parents who used to think the problem -- and the governor -- couldn't get any worse.
Discuss.
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Dec. 19, 2004
Posted in open discussion. |
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Dec 19, '04
More enlightening about the gov is this statesman journal piece.
http://159.54.226.83/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041219/STATE/412190332
No surprise that our State is lead/controlled by the continuing Goldschmidt governorship/cronnie world.
10:33 a.m.
Dec 19, '04
Mannix had already been planning on running again a couple of years ago. He had pretty much told me so when I was talking with him at a local health club.
Dec 19, '04
I think that since that, the statewide races for the GOP this time year were abysmal and the lost of the State Senate under Mannix’s leadership; will kill his chances. Not discounting the Mannix’s debt relief that he cried out for, could truly hurt his bid for chair; if he loses the chair on the issue of the debt—it would be a hard road for him to win the GOP nomination for governorship. The Oregonian article touched on Congressman Walden and Senator Smith is not interested in the governorship; time will tell on Congressman Walden and Senator Smith “is vying for more power in DC” as a member of the finance committee(w/fellow Oregonian Sen. Wyden) . The GOP could give the thumbs up on Ron Saxton for stab at the governor’s race in 2006. Ron Saxton would be a little harder candidate for us Democrats to defeat. Nevertheless, let us not count them there chickens before they hatch. What will transpire within the Legislature and the interaction of the Governor will be a critical issue for us to keep that office in our side of the aisle. As the link, that Steve provided; is yet another potential issue for us too contends with, as well. Furthermore, the questionable spending of BOWL-PAC monies on river parties and not BUILDING OREGON WITH LEADERSHIP; is another albatross around Ted’s neck.
Steve,
Thanks for the link.
Dec 19, '04
Bravo to Steve Duin for telling it like it is.
Kulongoski doesn't really think he can get re-elected, does he?
What I want to know is, who will run against him in the primary?
Dec 19, '04
Mannix is far too conservative for Oregon. He's an offense to thelegacy of Tom McCall, Hatfield and the rest of our great republican leaders. He's dangerous to the state and I'm are ready getting quasy about the idea of him getting the governorship.
What can I do to make absolutely certain he does not obtain it? I'm serious here. I actually have nightmares about him being Governor.
He's planning his run early, I want to plan his defeat early. If you know a way I can help email me, IM me... whatever.
Please.
Dec 19, '04
If Mannix runs, the Democrats will ultimately win because Mannix will win the primary, but he won't win the support of the overall populace. The far-right conservatives outnumber the moderates at the polls in the primary, so I believe we'll se a repeat of last time. Saxton will be defeated in te primary, and then we'll see a general election featuring a rehash of Mannix's campaign finance irregularities and the "far-right" views he touted in the primary (interesting considering he was once a Democrat), and he'll lose - unless the Democrats select a particularly weak candidate. You all may be disillusioned with Kulongoski, but he hasn't done anything to tick off a lot of Republicans yet, so he could win Republican support at the polls if the Republican party put up a less-than-stellar candidate like Mannix.
Dec 19, '04
P.S. I'm personally feeling mixed about Mannix. His campaign finance thing bothers me immensely, but I recall being very pleased with a lot of the legislation he wrote and sponsored when he was a Democrat in the Legislature.
6:19 p.m.
Dec 19, '04
Kevin Mannix is the best thing that ever happened to the Oregon Democratic Party.
Dec 19, '04
As is "Teddy" K, for the right Jack.
8:25 p.m.
Dec 19, '04
I wonder if, in Peek's mind, the right and/or the Republicans have ever done anything wrong.
8:57 p.m.
Dec 19, '04
Kevin Mannix knows how to lose statewide elections. And if the Ralph Nader of the Right, Tom Cox, runs again, he will once again be at a disadvantage.
No matter how often Mannix uses the word "populist" to describe himself (maybe we should have a contest or fundraiser on that one) he is out to aid the comfortable and further the "you are on your own ship" society.
He's bright as a whip, for sure. But don't underestimate just how far to the right he has moved since he started his political career working for McGovern. He's trying to play the same playbook spelled out in Thomas Frank's "What's the Matter with Kansas?" book - offer up the social and moral agenda and deliver the goods for the wealthy and corporate interests.
Dec 19, '04
Dear True: Your assumption that I THINK Mannix is a winner, proves your over-fed ego, needs a diet.
Mannix isn't my cadidate for sure.
Dec 19, '04
Dear Chuck.."corporate interest", Boy,are these over used words getting old, unless I miss on this, small wage tourist jobs don't make it.
We need real jobs.HELLO!
Dec 19, '04
Just a quick note on Duin's article. What Amy's Kitchen has said they'll pay in Medford is the same as they're currently paying in Santa Rosa CA. The lowest-tier (and probably most common) jobs they have are production workers who'll average $10/hour.
(http://www1.pressdemocrat.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041212/NEWS/412120305/1033/NEWS01).
If you check the want ads down there, they show the jobs include benefits. $10/hour plus benefits certainly isn't a plush wage, but neither is it minimum wage.
10:40 p.m.
Dec 19, '04
If Jack Roberts ran against Kulongoski, I'd be on Jack's campaign committee.
Dec 19, '04
Mannix will have to get so Orwellian to try win Oregon, that it will be too obvious and he won't win.
Also blogging for progressives in Oregon and nationally at New Frames http://www.newframes.typepad.com
Dec 20, '04
Yet another hit on Teddy K today in the OREGONIAN, to save state monies (approx.$136k/annual)--Oregon is not part of the Western Governors Association(not a member since 2002) or National Governor Assocaitions(not a member since 2001). So when serious issues, like the Federal Endangered Species Act--Oregon can speak but can not vote. Yes these two groups say that WHEN THE STATE OF OREGON'S FINANCES IMPROVED THEY WILL NOT REQUIRE THE STATE TO PAY BACK DUES.
Dec 20, '04
[off topic deleted.]
Dec 20, '04
Try to stay on the topic at hand and restrain your inclination (very bad habit) of using any and every opportunity to spread your (as my grandfather would refer to it) 'bad word medicine'.
[off topic item deleted.]
If you feel entitled to argue their point (if you even know who your ancestors are) -- then please take up the issue at other places on the internet -- where that is the topic of discussion.
Thank you.
Dec 20, '04
I, too, am one who is disappointed in Ted.
Looking around for options to support.
Mannix doesn't scare me; he has a tendency to self-destruct.
Dec 20, '04
Dear Allehseya,
[off topic stuff deleted.]
Dec 20, '04
Dearest Jack,
[off topic stuff deleted.]
Dec 20, '04
Dear "A"
[off topic stuff deleted.]
Dec 20, '04
[off topic name-calling deleted.]
Dec 21, '04
DEAR HELLO, have a "progressive day".
11:20 a.m.
Dec 22, '04
As Jack notes, a Mannix candidacy is great for Dems. His value to the GOP has declined steadily since his defeat in '02, and it's hard to imagine a scenario in which he wins a statewide election. Other candidates could beat Kulongoski, but will they beat a party chair to get the nomination? That's the real question.
But on the Dem side, Kulongoski is no great shakes, either. The minute he got elected, he decided to pull a Lieberman and go to that squishy middle--where few Oregonians now reside. My guess is that his crossover appeal isn't great despite the concessions, and certainly for true-blue tax-and-spenders in Stumptown he's losing ground.
Kulongoski has made two conscious decisions about how he governs, and he's sticking with them. First, hold the line on spending. In the absence of leadership, the state will continue to list under the weight of a dysfunctional tax code. Kulongoski will neither suggest an overhaul, nor will he raise taxes. So it's cuts as far as the eye can see. Second, he's decided to govern from the squishy middle rather than seize the advantage presented by a Democratic Senate. I think he sees this as a move to red-blue detente, but I fear it will have the opposite effect--leaving both liberals and conservatives pissed that they're stuck treading water.
If Mannix crashes and burns before '06, don't be surprised to see some serious moderates emerge for the GOP.
Dec 22, '04
I think he sees this as a move to red-blue detente, but I fear it will have the opposite effect--leaving both liberals and conservatives pissed that they're stuck treading water.
I think this ideology of trying to hold the balance to make both sides happy is not a good thing for Democratic Party.
If Mannix crashes and burns before '06, don't be surprised to see some serious moderates emerge for the GOP.
Who, prey tell, is a serious moderate Republican that make a serious run?
As well, who within the Democratic Party is willing too challenge an incumbent Governor? Alternatively, influence Teddy K too step aside for the betterment of the Party?
Dec 22, '04
Jeff says """""Second, he's decided to govern from the squishy middle rather than seize the advantage presented by a Democratic Senate."""""
Please explain how there is a new advantage to seize and to what ends?
The Governor effectively had the same makeup last session with RINO republicans siding with democrats and passing the tax increase just as every single democrat legislator and democrat governor wanted.
Then the voters, via M30 soundly rejected that increase.
What is different for the Governor?
Suppose he and the legislature, with a slightly easier path, pass another tax increase.
Is there any doubt it will be referred and defeated?
Perhaps the Governor is recognizing the ultra obvious and realizes that path is hopeless.
So what can we expect as NEW from the Democrat led Senate? If it's such a good new thing it should be easy to communicate specifically why and how.
Dec 22, '04
Jeff,
Actually, I suspect, like most of America (see Fiorina, "Culture Wars: The Myth of a Polarized America), that most Oregonians do reside in the squishy middle. The problem is that the squishy middle right now seems to be: don't overtax me but also don't cut my services.
Unless we change the terms of the debate, then Kulongoski is unlikely to make much forward progress on solving Oregon's longterm problems.
2:51 p.m.
Dec 22, '04
Let me work backward from the Prof's final comment:
Unless we change the terms of the debate, then Kulongoski is unlikely to make much forward progress on solving Oregon's longterm problems.
This is exactly the advantage I meant that he should seize. The governor now has the Senate and a tighter House. The hard right was pretty seriously rebuffed in the past election, and there's clearly much more mandate for change in Oregon than Bush is claiming nationally.
And yet, rather than seize that opportunity, the Governor is sitting pat. Real leadership would be acknowledging that the system's broke. It's not a matter of tweaking spending here (video slots) or spending there (selective cuts). We fundamentally need to rethink how money is collected and how it is spent. Until leadership is willing to do that, we're left with a Hobson's choice of those pissant cuts.
We've already started discussing that here on Blue Oregon, and I look forward to more of the same. At least SOMEone should have the courage to think things through.
Dec 22, '04
Just some ideas:
Enforce the Oregon Department of Revenue; go after those individuals that don't pay at all or their fair share. I bet that there is tens of millions of dollars, at least uncollected.
Increase the Min. Business Tax for C Corporations way above just $10 per annum.
Repeal the Aggregate Corporate Tax Filing loophole, so that Enron would have to pay taxes on the net cash flow on PGE within the boundaries of the state of Oregon; as well, as for other major corporations that use it to escape paying taxes.
Pass a law for the state too monitor the sales and purchases of real estate; for those individuals that make a living off of real estate speculation and not have to pay capital gains on the difference of [resale price after (purchase price and cost of repairs and liens)].
Go after aggressively after individuals that have a past due on property taxes after 2 years without a legal agreement of a payment plan.
Dec 22, '04
Great specific proposals, Aaron. Better specificity than the House Majority is capable of.
I would add: 1)Publish the cost of hearing a bill (paper to print, staff time, etc.) because there was something in the Statesman Journal today about the amount of paper consumed and how few bills actually pass. 2)Cut the salaries of leadership staff and publicize those--is Minnis's chief of staff still making the $8,000 per month as 2003? (source: Legislative Admin. Employee Services) 3)Examine all current tax breaks--incl. kicker. Is it written in the Measure 86<?> kicker in the Constit. ballot measure language that the checks must be sent out in the fall? How much paper, postage, staff time etc. would be saved if instead it were made part of the tax return process? 4)Administrative salaries--from state agency heads to school district central office administrators.
My impression of current House majority leadership is that they would rather walk on hot coals than discuss any of the above in public--esp. with question / answer session from reporters or (gasp) ordinary citizens. Some of them have a "you're just voters" attitude.
Dec 22, '04
LT,
That is why this is going to be the last session that the R's have the majority in the House. It will be up to the leadership of the Democratic Party not too drop the ball with framing the failing of the State revenue of past sessions with the Republicans in charge of the purse strings. My impression of current House majority leadership is that they would rather walk on hot coals than discuss any of the above in public--esp. with question / answer session from reporters or (gasp) ordinary citizens. Some of them have a "you're just voters" attitude. This is why we all should take time to go and listen and report back down from the House committee meetings and let the Speaker and Majority Leader realize that we the, "you're just voters"-people; are in the House watching and listening.
Dec 23, '04
Jeff,
Right on. Any sense what the major progressive groups (AFSCME, Bus Project, City Club, others?) have as their legislative priorities this term?
9:36 a.m.
Dec 23, '04
I think the Bus is working on a few things, but I haven't heard much beyond that.
Dec 23, '04
Ted's high point so far was his address to the Oregon Summit during the primaries. His campaign against Mannix was abysmal. His leadership has me fondly remembering the Doc.
But Mannix? If he could not capitialize on the disappearing Democrat last time, he stands no chance in a rerun. And the wishy-washy gov is preferable to evil and slimy Kevin, anyday.