A key to Democratic success
Jonathan Singer
Hello all. This is Jonathan Singer from over at Basie!, a political blog that covers Oregon and the rest of the nation. I've been asked by Kari to submit a post here and there, and I guess there's no better time to start than now. (Sorry for the long post. I'll try to shorten them up in the future.
In a sense, 2004 was a tough year for the Democrats nationwide. John Kerry was defeated by a President whose approval ratings seldom rose above 50 percent; the party lost so many seats in the Senate that its caucus is smaller than any point since 1933; and even in the House elections, the party saw a net loss of seats. Nevertheless, embedded in the defeat were lessons from many states that can help lead the Democrats back to victory on the federal level.
In Montana, Democrats under Brian Schweitzer, running on a platform that stressed morality and conservation, picked up the governorship and both houses of the state legislature. In Colorado, Democrats stressed moderation as they picked up a Senate seat, a House seat and both houses of the state legislature. Lessons can be learned from Oregon as well.
In 2004, Oregon continued its decade-long trend towards Democratic domination, delivering its seven electoral votes to the Democratic nominee for the fifth straight election and ensuring that every statewide office (save one Senate seat) was in the hands of the Dems. Aided by favorable districts drawn by Secretary of State Bill Bradbury (who was handily reelected), the party retook the state Senate for the first time in a decade and came within a handful of votes of retaking the state House.
Democratic victory in Oregon was not only based on redistricting, however. At the root of the party's success in the state was a brilliant strategy that stressed two key components: "government accountability and fiscal responsibility" [David Steves, Eugene Register-Guard]. These five words can surely bring the Democrats back on the national level just as they did in this state.
Republican corruption is worse than it has been in years, and that party's leadership has shown a tendency to try to cover-up every impropriety by its members. Just think about their defense of House Majority Leader Tom DeLay who has been admonished by the Ethics panel multiple times this year, the ongoing Halliburton contracts scandal, Rep. Billy Tauzin's quick move from writing the Medicare Rx bill to being hired as chief lobbyist for PhRMA, the misleading statements about Iraqi possession of WMD, etc., etc.
As Josh Marshall wrote a month ago, it's time for "Democrats to yoke together their values and their political interest and become a genuine party of reform." Indeed. Let's take the lessons learned from the Beaver State -- that government accountability and fiscal responsibility can and must be stressed -- and apply them to the national level. In no time, Democrats in other states just might be as successful as us here in the great state of Oregon.
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1:36 a.m.
Dec 30, '04
Folks interested in what's happening in Montana, Colorado, and throughout the West -- and what that might mean for our hopes in 2006, 2008, and beyond should check out WesternDemocrat.com.
Dec 30, '04
I might also (humbly) suggest you check out my recent interview with former Colorado Senator and two-time candidate for the Democratic nomination Gary Hart in which we discuss the outlook for Democrats in the West.
Dec 30, '04
The former representative from Pennsylvania, Gouverneur Morris; must be rolling in his grave. He wanted to limit the representation and the number of future states with the expansion of the western areas of the country. Others from Continental Congress stated the Republic stated that this would cause these new states to revolt against the Republic for the lack of representation. Once again, the mighty Republic might be facing a Western Revolt, just 230 years after Continental Congress in a way that would make some members of this great meeting would be very proud and not scared of what the Western States might be up too.
11:02 a.m.
Dec 30, '04
Nice post, Jonathan, and welcome aboard.
On the Democratic advantage in Oregon (dominance seems yet premature ... but we can dream), I think we also have to thank Kevin Mannix and other diehard uber-conservatives. He's done a sparkling job of nurturing the Norquist right--ensuring that every moderate GOP candidate will be opposed by half of his (her) own party.
I spose the corruption didn't help much, either.
2:24 p.m.
Dec 30, '04
What a novel concept. Look to winners and study how they did it............
Very important stuff indeed!!
And yet another "welcome aboard". I hope we here more from you on the mechanics driving successful progressive winners......
Dec 30, '04
Welcome aboard indeed! But with regard to the Dave Steves article, I suggest serious thought about this quote:
"We'll be focused on keeping our commitment to the voters in a bipartisan way," said Brown, who was in charge of the campaigns that put Democrats in 18 of the Senate's 30 seats.
But the Democrats don't face pleasant decisions, come the start of the session in the new year.
The state's general-fund budget for education, health, human services and public safety is expected to fall short by $800 million of what's needed to maintain programs at current levels. That raises the prospect of program cuts.
The Democratic takeover resulted from the party's pick up of three open seats previously held by Republicans: a coastal district where Coos Bay's Joanne Verger prevailed, a Southern Oregon seat won by Alan Bates of Ashland, and the district east of Portland, which was captured by Laurie Monnes-Anderson of Gresham. <<
How much of the Democratic takeover of the Senate came from Kate Brown and the caucus or from the Democratic party, and how much came from the wonderful folks at the Oregon Bus Project? I have heard Bates owes more to locals and the Bus Project than he does to Brown, the caucus, or the party office in Portland. Maybe folks with a connection to the Bus would like to enlighten the new person further on this topic.
Dec 30, '04
LT:
I totally agree with you that a good ground game is key to winning in any situation. Nothing I can write could give justice to the work done by people in the Oregon Bus Project and other field operations across the state that allowed the Democrats to retake the state Senate.
That having been said, it is also extremely important to have an effective message, and that's what this post tries to address. Brown's message of government accountability was and could continue to be an extremely useful device to remind Americans about the inherent corruption of many leading Republicans in Salem and Washington.
Dec 30, '04
Accountability is a great message. So is requiring people to state a positive agenda, and talk about the details. Do the No New Taxes people feel so strongly that the are willing to: a)state what spending (specifics, not "waste")they are willing to cut? b)explain whether they really want us to believe that meth is less of a problem than "excessive spending" and that if a meth addict broke into their homes that would be OK because spending on public safety to stop/arrest those involved in such crimes would be worse than the meth epidemic? That is the sort of questions we should be asking until we get an answer. And as I understand it, that is the sort of thing the Colo. Dems did.
Jan 3, '05
Jonathan,
Isn't a much more likely explanation of Democratic success at the local level simply that we are becoming an increasingly Democratic state?
It was not the Register-Guard columnist who attributed the Democrat's success to "governmental acccountability and fiscal responsibility;" that was a quote from Senate majority leader Kate Brown.
I don't recall any such unified campaign theme in the Fall. If Senator Brown, or the Governor, has a set of proposals that reflect those themes, I'd be happy to hear them.
I can't speak for the rest of the state, but in Portland, the debate seemed to be over "reformists" and "shake up city hall" vs. some undefined old guard. In Multnomah, most debate was over the gay marriage proposal and extension of the tax surcharge.
In Congress, Hooley's campaign focussed on identify theft and the power of incumbency (she's been around, she has influence) while Wu's campaign didn't really have much of a theme until the sexual harassment scandal broke.
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