Why (Some) Vanishing Voters Reappeared

The One True bIX

Earlier today, The Vanishing Voter -- "a project to study and invigorate the American electoral process" out of the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics & Public Policy (itself part of the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University) -- released the results of its post-election national survey.

While they discuss some of the issues which were important to both first-time and repeat voters, what I found most interesting was the data on just what helped bring first-time voters to the polls this year.

The greatest difference in the turnout decisions of first-time voters and repeat voters was the impact of personal contact. Compared with repeat voters, first-time voters were substantially less likely (78 percent vs. 96 percent) to claim that "it is a citizen’s duty to vote in every election." Personal contact helped overcome their weaker sense of civic duty. Three times as many first-time voters -- 61 percent vs. 21 percent -- said that a reason they voted was because "my family or friends encouraged me to vote."

The numerous get-out-the-vote efforts by groups and luminaries during the 2004 campaign also made a difference on Election Day. Compared with repeat voters, first-time voters were more likely to say (14 percent vs. 4 percent) that a reason they voted was that "a group or organization helped me register to vote." They were also more likely to say (7 percent vs. 2 percent) they became interested "because so many celebrities were encouraging people to vote." Americans who had been eligible to vote in previous presidential elections but voted for the first time this year mentioned the latter reason most frequently. Roughly one in seven -- 14 percent -- of these first-time voters said that celebrity involvement affected their decision to cast a ballot.

So, in descending order of importance first-time voters were most influenced by friends or family, organized get-out-the-vote efforts, and celebrity endorsements of the importance of voting.

The survey also revealed the nature of the impediments which preventing some of the voting-age population from casting ballots. While some of the reasons are more difficult to overcome ("disgusted with politics" or "find politics befuddling"), other reasons have much more to do with problems or perceived problems with the registration and voting processes themselves.

These more systemic reasons included: No way to get to the polls, difficulties in re-registering after moving, no information on how to register, mistakenly believing they were already registered, fear of having their votes challenged, or long lines at the polls.

Attached to the release was a pair of tables. The first compares the reasons for voting given by first-time and repeat voters, while the second lists the reasons why non-voters didn't vote at all.

By The One True bIX Nov. 11, 2004