Election News, One Day Remaining
Jeff Alworth
Just 26 hours until the first precincts begin closing, a fact that brings me no end of pleasure. But before we can celebrate the end, we must first keep our eye on the process--for it may be the key to the outcome. And that's where most of our news is today.
The GOP Multnomah County Ballot Challenge
This is a bizarre story, so bear with me. Our tale begins on Friday, when Multnomah County received a letter from, according to the AP, "the Portland law firm of O’Donnell & Clark, which, according to the letter, represents the Oregon Republican Party and the Bush-Cheney 2004 re-election campaign." In that letter, the GOP appeared to be demanding the county to set aside ballots from newly-registered voters who hadn't provided identification when they registered.
Let us pause mid-story to consider this request. First off, Oregon law doesn't demand ID. Next, note that the request isn't statewide--it's to a single county. Let's see, that would be the one overwhelmingly Democratic county. Finally, given the GOP's own treachery in tricking young voters during registration, the claim seems shockingly ironic (not to mention venal). But it all seems par for the course with the Mannix-led GOP, so who's surprised, right?
That takes us back to our story. The GOP began taking shrapnel for the position, and yesterday several groups held a joint press conference to call on the GOP to back off the challenge. The Bush-Cheney campaign refused to comment on the fracas until just before five, when they faxed a response distancing themselves from O'Donnell & Clark.
"On Friday, an attorney misrepresented his affiliation with the Bush-Cheney campaign, and at no time has the campaign ever contracted or retained his legal services."
But then it adds this curious clarifier, which I'll leave for you to interpret:
"Oregon's unique vote-by-mail system and its relationship with the Helping America Vote Act naturally brings about questions. We are continuing to carefully review the matter, so it was not the campaign's intention to make that inquiry."Document available here: bc_fax.pdf. (Thanks to Patty Wentz, AFL-CIO)
For now, no challenges on voter registration in Multnomah County.
Stay Online for News
The worst thing about election night is the dreary coverage on local TV. Who wants to have to listen to an interview with Lon Mabon about Measure 36? Now you don't have to. For the first time in elections history, the Secretary of State's office will be posting the results in real time on the official webpage, beginning at 8pm. It seems appropriate that the election that began with the Dean internet machine should be reported there, too.
Secretary of State's results available here.
More Numbers
I hope this is a trend:
Newly registered Oregon voters: 207,053.
Newly registered Oregon voters aged 18-24: 73,226.
Cell Phone Users
Pollsters are supposed to take demographics into account when they correct blind samples. Presumably that takes into account younger voters who are predominantly cell-phone users. I wonder if they had calculated cell phone users preferred Kerry by 15 points, because that's what Zogby found in the first ever all-cell-phone poll. The study surveyed over 6,000 18-29-year-old cell phone users and found Kerry leading 55%-40% (+/- 1%).
I do know that these are exactly the people most likely to be filtered out of "likely voter" polls, which have been more favorable to Bush than Kerry. If those younger voters turn out in any kind of substantially larger numbers, it may well tip the election decisively in Kerry's favor.
Final Newspaper Endorsements Tally
The editorial departments have spoken. In the final tally of newspaper endorsements, Kerry led Bush 208-188. Not a huge victory, but dig around and it looks more impressive. Kerry picked up the bigger papers, reflected in his 4 to 3 circulation advantage. More importantly, more than 60 papers that backed Bush in 2000 now back Kerry or refused to make an endorsement. Only 10 Gore papers this year endorsed Bush. In Oregon, it was Kerry 7, Bush 5, with a massive circulation advantage to Kerry. Here's what it looked like, with papers and their circulations.
Kerry
The Oregonian (Portland): 342,040
The Register-Guard (Eugene): 72,411
Statesman Journal (Salem): 56,298
Mail Tribune (Medford): 35,524
The World (Coos Bay): 12,711
East Oregonian (Pendleton): 10,236
The Daily Astorian (Astoria): 8,429
Bush
The Bulletin (Bend): 26,695
The News-Review (Roseburg): 19,272
Albany Democrat-Herald: 17,786
Daily Courier (Grants Pass): 16,392
Argus Observer (Ontario): 7,367
The Daily Astorian (Astoria): 8,429
Update: On that last item, I unexpectedly allowed the Daily Astorian to migrate to the Bush column. Sharp-eyed JFM caught the mistake and I've corrected it.
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3:49 p.m.
Nov 1, '04
Regarding the voter identification crap. As I suggest here, I never believed it had anything to do with the GOP or Bush-Cheney, but with Measure 36.
Nov 1, '04
So T-minus-zero. MediaMatters.org did a website adjustment, apparently in anticipation of the scattered press stories of election day crimes, they set a special topic sub-page to collect the dots.
<h1></h1>Nov 1, '04
Maybe that link didn't link. Try again.
MMFA subpage .
<h1></h1>Nov 1, '04
Jeff, While I agree with you that this is an obvious vote suppression move (and was disavowed later this afternoon by Kevin Mannix), let's not sugarcoat the registration tactics engaged in by both parties this year.
My spouse was registered in front of Pioneer Place by an ACT volunteer. She was not asked to provide any identification, proof of residency, proof of address, etc. I asked "don't you need some proof of identity," the response was "No, they trust our organization."
Pretty sketchy, I must say. We're ready to head down to the County office to prove her residency if necessary. But sketchy.
The sad thing about the events this year is that is demonstrates that the Democrats are a get-out-the-vote party and the Republicans are a vote suppression party. As long as the sociodemographic biases in turnout mirror the partisan divide in this country, something unlikely to end, this year points out the necessity of statewide registration system.
note: HAVA changes are going to fix an awful lot of these problems. By 2006, all states are supposed to have high quality, electronic, updated voter registration rolls.
6:07 p.m.
Nov 1, '04
Prof, I haven't actually heard of the Democratic misdeeds, though that didn't mean I didn't expect to find any. Though what your describe sounds a wee bit lax, it doesn't quite seem comparable to the tactics the GOP has employed.
6:27 p.m.
Nov 1, '04
My spouse was registered in front of Pioneer Place by an ACT volunteer. She was not asked to provide any identification, proof of residency, proof of address, etc. I asked "don't you need some proof of identity," the response was "No, they trust our organization."
That last bit seems rather nonsensical, but I thought part of what was reported in this story was that Oregon has an exemption -- broked by both of our Senators together -- to the ID requirement because we are vote-by-mail. In which case, the "No" part of the ACT volunteer's answer would be entirely correct.
6:42 p.m.
Nov 1, '04
Prof, those aren't Democratic misdeeds so there's nothing to sugarcoat. Oregon does not ask voters to show ID if they hand their registration to a person as opposed to mailing it in. The ACT people were behaving perfectly responsibly and legally. The request for ID for mail-in registrations is an attempt to prevent the kind of large-scale fraud which would be much easier when you vote via mail.
When you register to vote in Oregon you certify that you are legally entitled to vote and there are penalties that can be levied against you if that is not the case. We put the burden on the person registering to vote, not on the people collecting their registration forms.
To try to compare multiple voter suppression travesties with completely kosher voter registration drives...please don't even go there--it's so Republican.
Nov 1, '04
Reading your account of who endorsed whom, I was horrified to see the Daily Astorian in the Bush-endorsement column. It didn't sound like the D.A. that I know. A little research later and I'm pleased to correct you: Chalk the Daily Astorian up to the Kerry side.
http://www.dailyastorian.info/main.asp?Search=1&ArticleID=19559&SectionID=23&SubSectionID=783&S=1
Nov 1, '04
Are the results in yet from Dixville Notch ?
<h1></h1>9:54 p.m.
Nov 1, '04
Prof et al, I'd strongly encourage you to listen to last week's 15-minute piece on voter fraud on the NPR show This American Life. Listen Here.
The critical element? At the national level, Republicans allege that the worst thing the Dems are doing is registering fake people (Mary Poppins, Fred Flintstone, etc.) and double-registering. As we've seen here in Oregon, those cases get caught by the voting system. Even Mannix could only come up with six cases - five of which were bogus, and one had already been forwarded for prosecution.
The worst thing the Democrats allege is that the GOPers are registering thousands of real Democrats and TEARING UP THE FORMS. The difference? The GOPers are doing things that irreversibly disenfranchise people. Once the deadline passes, there's nothing that can be done to fix it.
The GOPers would like you to believe that there's fraud "on both sides". That's not true. What they're up to is fundamentally different both in size and in character.
10:20 p.m.
Nov 1, '04
Not yet from Dixville Notch but Hart's Location is done:http://www.thechamplainchannel.com/wnne/3882084/detail.html
10:32 p.m.
Nov 1, '04
Just in from Dixville Notch: http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackageArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=613450§ion=news
So in 2000 HL went 17-13 Bush over Gore, this year 15-15 with one for Nader.
In 2000 DN went 21-5 Bush, one for Nader; this year 19-7 Bush.
Has to be statistically meaningless given the small numbers, but I take encouragement from it anyway.
10:46 p.m.
Nov 1, '04
The GOPers would like you to believe that there's fraud "on both sides". That's not true. What they're up to is fundamentally different both in size and in character.
Well, the GOP has benefitted from four years of a Washington press corps which dutifully reports political stories from a "he said, she said" perspective without bothering to inform people whether or not what either side said happens to actually be true or whether the two are equivalent. So of course they are trying to assert the "on both sides" argument.
Nov 2, '04
Four years, b!X? It's been that way a lot longer than that. (Not that this diminishes your argument, of course.)
1:16 a.m.
Nov 2, '04
Well, yes, but it's been more detrimental to the civic life of the republic in the last four years than at any other time in recent history.
Nov 2, '04
Republicans are well aware that if everyone voted, Democrats would win. They actually consider Democrat get-out-the-vote efforts to be a dirty trick! I don't konw why Kevin Mannix has any credibility anymore after being caught engaging in Sizemore-style money management with his various organizations. He's a partisan all the way, and will do whatever it takes to win even if that means playing dirty. That behavior is the primary reason why I refuse to be a Republican anymore. I just can't stomach being on the side of sleazebags. That said, I've seen an awful lot of dirty tricks by Democrats, too, and I don't think there is any room for a holier-than-thou attitude here.
9:18 a.m.
Nov 2, '04
Becky, are you the same Becky Miller that used to work for Bill Sizemore? If so, welcome to Blue Oregon!
Nov 2, '04
Yep, the same.
Nov 2, '04
I'm not claiming the two sides are comparable -- read my post. Because of the sociodemographics of the two parties, the Republicans have to engage in vote suppression while the Democrats have to engage in vote maximization.
While the ACT registration technique may be legal, that doesn't mean it's a particularly good way to register voters.
<h2>HAVA will fix a lot of this, and good for it.</h2>