Election News, 7 Days Out
Jeff Alworth
We're finally--finally!--in serious countdown mode. Even to uberwonks, this has been one long, hot election season and I for one am happy to see the light at the end of the tunnel. I'll try to post daily updates on what's happening in the news. Use the comments to add more if I missed anything.
Turnout
By this time in 2000, about 18% of ballots had reached Salem. This year we've already hit 24%. Both parties have been urging people to turn their ballots in early, but it looks like the GOP may be more effective: two-thirds of the ballots have been returned in Douglas County.*
Returning your ballot early is important because it allows party activists to focus their get-out-the-vote attention on those who haven't voted yet. So go vote now!
District 1
Goli Ameri appears to have lost the battle of the Stanford Incident. In response to her attack campaign on the issue, Wu released his own ad, available on his website here (including a transcript). Meanwhile, the only hint of the attack campaign on Ameri's site is an apology for sending out the Oregonian article without attribution. Her ad remains mysteriously absent.
The GOP tried to get further traction on the story by filing a complaint against Wu, claiming he failed to disclose the incident in an application to the Oregon bar. Yesterday the bar declined to investigate. Ameri's just gonna have to fight this battle herself.
Watching Voters
The Oregon GOP claims to have located 6 people who double voted. This follows news that GOP volunteers may videotape elections workers "in case they see something suspicious." All of which indicates that there are likely to be two phases to the election--the vote and then the post-vote wrangle.
Updated Newspaper Endorsement Tally
Yesterday, the Ontario Argus Observer became the third Oregon paper to endorse Bush:
What America needs now is a leader on par with Ulysses S. Grant at Cold Harbor in the Civil War or the Duke of Wellington at Waterloo - a leader that can focus on the task at hand and make the sacrifices necessary to achieve victory.In short, a dedicated, decisive commander committed to accomplishing the mission.
Kerry
The Oregonian (Portland)
The Register-Guard (Eugene)
Statesman Journal (Salem)
Mail Tribune (Medford)
East Oregonian (Pendleton)
The Daily Astorian (Astoria)
Bush
The News-Review (Roseburg)
Daily Courier (Grants Pass)
Argus Observer (Ontario)
Plug
Finally, there's a guy here who thinks the electoral college is bogus. Not a bad article.
____________________
*Update Despite what the AP says, the Secretary of State's office shows a 29% return as of yesterday, with a range of 21% (Washington) to 41% (Linn). Just 35% of voters had returned their ballots in Douglas Country, about half what was reported by the AP. Thanks to Marcello for the clarification.
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connect with blueoregon
Oct 26, '04
According to Kos, Eminem is now doing GOTV:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/26/142031/17
I watched his new video, and I think it's pretty powerful. Check it out.
Oct 26, '04
I've got a link (downloadable only, not for streaming) on my site's server (back in NYC) for the next couple of hours.
It's compelling, to be sure.
Oct 26, '04
Jeff, the AP article you quote is wrong on the Douglas county returns, which as of yesterday are at 35% compared to a state average of 29%. The data can be found at the Oregon Secretary of State web site at
http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/nov22004/g04cum.pdf
It is true that some "red" counties have a slight advantage in early returns so far, but not a huge one.
Thanks for the quote from the Argus Observer. For some reason Bush does not make me think of the Duke of Wellington at Waterloo, he reminds me more of Napoleon.
2:08 p.m.
Oct 26, '04
Marcello, thanks for the link. It's odd, those numbers don't jive with what's in the papers at all. I thought I'd made another gaffe and just quoted the article wrong, but sure enough, there it is: "Douglas County led the voting pace with ballots received from two-thirds of its registered voters by the end of the weekend."
And why does it say 24% when the link you provide says 29? Hmmmm....
I'll update the post, thanks.
2:14 p.m.
Oct 26, '04
Also, it's interesting to see that the lowest return comes from Washington, which presumably is one of the most divided in the state. Perhaps the swings there are really gnashing their teeth about whom they should vote for.
2:27 p.m.
Oct 26, '04
Um, guys, sometimes the right answer is the obvious one. People in rural areas get their ballots in earlier because more of them mail them in. People in urban areas are more likely to drop it off - less distance to drive. It's always been this way.
Oct 26, '04
wow. i hate Eminem, but that was sweet...
10:00 p.m.
Oct 26, '04
Um, guys, sometimes the right answer is the obvious one.
I don't think that explains the AP's bizarre Douglas County return finding.
Oct 27, '04
Tsk. Jeff, there's also Bush grip in Albany Democrat-Herald, we noted.
Does not the Democrat-Herald come first alphabetically in your newspaper names file? :-)
I haven't found something of Klamath Falls Herald & News, but their long-time publisher Joe Carraher died this summer so the devoteds there may decline voting.
For that matter, (human rites respect), may it emit kindly my disappointment in this blog's underachieving to its potential: in some number of examples I forgive and forget, and can keep on that way; then there are these unforgiveables from time to time. I am confused what to do in cases up to now, because: layout of the blog shifts, (itself, and the whole blog brand morphs every day), arrangements of the blogging 'us' - the circle around the water cooler yadayada - are changing, or, resolving dissolving defining refining, there is no Blog Etiquette for Dummies book and companion Blog Protocols for Dummies book - which rewrite fast enough to keep up, (blogs is mind-bending terrain, you can fall into some sites that haven't changed since 1959 and stub a toe on others that are in 2008 already and you're not sure what you're looking at; most encountered blog go'ers report they stay in a confined secure-feeling circuit - kindred-soul blogs?, and others report utter abandon never visit the same blog twice, cookieless trackless clueless). My bad, I don't know where when how what to get a word in edgewise, which don't matter except for times when it does. 'I been working at it ever since I came to this planet, I'm not there yet ...' but I am here now shaking shame-finger on you who? somebody? if it doesn't come out of the group the failure is equal in each one of the group? half it's I'm p.o.'ed it wasn't done and half it's I'm p.o.'ed I don't know what to do that's accepted and determinant. See, 'frustrated' is a better choice than 'p.o.'ed.' I'm not angry, I'm flummoxed. Lot of that going around, ('lotga', cc), I hear. So this time I try doing it this way; trial, error, analysis, repeat.
So, on the subject of newspapers, Dick Nokes died Oct. 23, and mention is mandatory. On the subject. Memorial sets the passing of an age. He is the very embodiment of the newspaper The Oregonian brand when market branding began, albeit not called that, (c.f., Edward Bernais, invention of p.r., circa 1935), and The Nokes Oregonian is the original modern-era Oregonian which was the true way to be, for here, for then, and it is that Nokes track that it got off of which is what is wrong with the paper today. But getting back on track does not mean back to Nokes' track because society, the here the now, has evolved along. So which move is the right way back on track? The whole damn newspaper industry is asking that same question. Wish it was as easy as rifling Nokes' desk to find his recipe for newspapering.
Like a ship weighed at anchor and the chain breaks.
The Oregonian can't be put back like, and where it was in Nokes' day. However, thousands of lives, miles of life, and the substance Oregonethos are the base elements he gave type to, now, here, and these elements are the best quality to do the work with, and worth doing, to build The Oregonian brandmark into the new age rather than encasing it in a rainy paperweight on a shelf in a time-capsule museum. The elan of Nokes to select the enduring elements worth carrying forward completes the success of doing it. Being exactly right in his time he gave us to see ours ahead.
J. Richard Nokes. He was a bastard, I tell you. The squarest forthright man to deal with, the proving exception where squarest is the superlative.
<h1></h1>1:36 a.m.
Oct 27, '04
Nah, Jeff, I think the AP reporter probably just misread some paperwork somewhere. If you look deep enough, you'll see that the Trib also mis-reported their own poll numbers on Measure 35 too. Twice.
7:56 a.m.
Oct 27, '04
Probably people should just read reliable news--blogs.
;-)
Oct 27, '04
Tenk -- I've tried, man -- really tried to understand your arguments -- but sometimes you are so "out there" that I just scroll down past your comments.
<h2>Chill, man...</h2>