The Fading Economy

Jeff Alworth

After what can only be called an entertaining three days at the Republican National Convention, President Bush will apparently lay out his "vision" for the coming four years tonight. One topic that's gotten precious little air time thus far at the convention is the relatively important health of the economy. (I know, I know, that's so 20th Century.) In preparation for his remarks, I'd like to mention a few stats that came through BlueOregon HQ over the past couple days. They may not be as sexy as the latest Al French allegation about John Kerry's war record, but at the end of the day, the average Oregonian might find them more relevant.

Bush will likely quote a few statistics to illustrate what the GOP is packaging as a healthy economy. For instance, yesterday he asserted: "our economy has been growing at rates as fast as any in nearly 20 years. Because we acted, over the past 12 months we've added 1.5 million new jobs. Because we acted, the national unemployment rate is 5.5 percent, well below the national average of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s."

Well, that's one way of looking at it. But last week the Census Bureau released data showing that if you're an average American, things look worse than they did when Bush took office.

Income
According to the new Census findings (and more ably described by FactCheck.org), unadjusted income of the mid-income wage-earners has declined by 1.2% since Bush took office. That group comprises the middle half of the US population, or households earning between $25k and $75k. Worse, the median household income has declined by $1,535 since Bush took office (-3.4%).

(In income statistics, it's always better to use the median, because that's the figure describing the person who's exactly in the middle of all Americans--half earn more, half earn less. The mean, or average, is skewed up by extremely wealthy families. That's why Bush uses means--so he can say the "average family will earn $x from my tax cuts"--but here the "average" includes only the top 20%.)

In Oregon things are a little better, income-wise. When Bush took office, the median household income was $42,440; over the period of his presidency, it has averaged $42,429, or down just marginally. Of course, Oregon has also suffered under the nation's highest unemployment rate, which adds to our woes.

Poverty
A phrase you probably won't here the President mention is "poverty rate"--mainly because it's way up. (He'd rather highlight his "compassion"--lavished lovingly on those, ah, somewhat above the poverty line.) The national and state rates are 12.5%; that is, a family of four earning less than $18,810 is considered impoverished. (One could make the argument that this figure is far too low, but for now I'm sticking to Census numbers.) Since Bush took office, a shocking 4.3 million people have fallen into poverty--a spike of 13.6%.

These numbers are unadjusted to account for the rise in health care (more than 10% annually), education, or gasoline. They don't take into account growing personal debt, rising interest rates, or a ballooning deficit. They're just plain old dollars in your pocket.

Tonight, Bush will present a world in which the economy is healthy and growing. But if your perception is different, don't doubt your powers of observation. If you're an average American, you earn less now than you did when Bush was elected. Of course, you could ignore what you observe. Maybe Al French has a new commercial out.

By Jeff Alworth Sept. 02, 2004