Karl Rove on the Youth Vote
Kari Chisholm
Channel-surfing, I spotted Karl Rove (you know, Bush's brain) talking at a gathering of College Republicans. His point? In 1996, Clinton had a 19% edge in the youth vote. In 2000, Bush and Gore were dead even in the demographic.
Rove: "Just imagine what it would mean for Republicans to continue that growth, and extend our lead among the youngest voters."
...and that's why local efforts like the Oregon Bus Project, Vote F*cker, and Candidates Gone Wild matter.
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8:04 a.m.
Aug 31, '04
I don't have the stats handy, but I think Rove may be polishing the apple here. I recall seeing something recently that showed Bush tanking among young voters--who, by the way, are planning to vote in greater numbers than in 2000. More of that creating perception, methinks.
(Caveat: my brain is creaky and misfires regularly; what I recall isn't always what happened.)
Aug 31, '04
Jeff, I hope you're right. We've relied on our young people to save us in many battles through our history, and this one is every bit as important as the ones that use guns, bombs and tanks.
Besides, how any youngster facing the prospect of a draft to fight a Bush war could bring himself to vote for the man is beyond me.
9:21 a.m.
Aug 31, '04
Some info:
Pew research (August 12): Among 18-39 year olds, Kerry leads Bush 53-35% (4% Nader, 8% dk)--the largest lead among any age demographic.
"At the other end of the spectrum, liberals (19.7), blacks (19.7), Democrats (20.1), single women (35.4) and those ages 18-24 (36.7) gave [Bush] the lowest ratings."
--IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index
10:11 a.m.
Aug 31, '04
Nationwide, as we work to include young people in our Democracy, it's important also to focus their attention on the other heads of the monster: Congress, and their state governments.
Big time shout out to Oregon Bus Project and the others for doing exactly this. I hope this catches on elsewhere - certain tight races could use the help, or this could be the cutting edge of the landslide. I'd be happy with either one.
The R convention image I've seen isn't exactly young, however, and chances are we've probably got a tougher ideological fight with the Greens, Libertarians and anarchists than with the Republicans for the prize, especially in cities.
10:25 a.m.
Aug 31, '04
I think Gore beat Bush among voters 18 to 29 by about 2 percent in 2000. In the latest ABC poll (taken after the Democratic Convention) Kerry led Bush 2 to 1 among voters under 30. But as with every other group of voters in this election, it doesn't matter what young voters think if they don't actually cast their votes on election day. They have to turnout to make this election go right.
Aug 31, '04
Yeah, but that's an unwinnable fight. People who won't compromise won't support a national party.
I think there is a lot that appeals to young voters in aspects of today's right. Giuliani's speech last night (which I know you all Tivoed so that you can watch it again and again) would definitely appeal to young voters. None of this worrying about a 30-year-old war -- the problem is today's war, and the Democrats haven't formulated a coherent vision for advancing the war. The Republicans have.
Now if we could only get rid of the Rick Santorum wing of the party and not worry about gay marriage and abortion.
Aug 31, '04
Get rid of Rick Santorum? Santorum is the party. McCain/Guiliani are window dressing. Its a shame its going to take 4 more years for some to realize this.
Aug 31, '04
Do you mean "Santorum"?
(For that link, just type 'Santorum' into Google and click "I'm feeling lucky.")
Sep 1, '04
Perhaps the Democrats to do not have a coherent strategy, but you can't possible believe that the Republicans do?
Oh unless you mean the coherent strategy of ignoring the roots of the problem and claiming terrorist hate freedom and other such ridiculous garbage.
Not to mention the vast miscalculations and incompetence demonstrated by the Republicans in both Afghanistan and Iraq? I would venture to say that what has happened in Afghanistan and Iraq was not part of the Republican "plan." Then there is the fact that everything Bush has done regarding terrorism has just further radicalized Islam against the US. Bush has done more to increase support for Bin Laden in the Islamic world than Bin Laden was able to muster throughout the 90s.
In the city young voters don’t think the Republicans have a plan for anything. Bush’s policies have motivated many younger voters to at least claim that voting is not pointless and that they will vote (against Bush) in 2004. This is very different from the climate in 2000 when many younger voters bought into the Nader’s “no difference between the two parties” line. Bush convinced many younger voters that there actually is a pretty substantial difference.
It remains to be seen if theses younger voters will actually follow through and vote, but many of them would not be considered “likely voters” in polls. Current polling may not account for these young voters. If city dwelling young people vote in large numbers, the polls could be way off, and we will be relieved of the curse of four more years of Bush incompetence.
Sep 2, '04
I can, and do believe that.
In this city, you're right. Elsewhere? I'm not so sure.
Sep 2, '04
Probably because you do not understand the nature of the problem. The majority of Muslim's perceive that God, Islam, their brethren and Muslim lands are being attacked by the US based on the Middle East policies and actions of the US government for the last 50 years. The Koran requires that all Muslims do whatever they can to defend God, Islam, their brethren and Muslim lands with defensive jihad or face eternal damnation.
I can't summarize all the complexities of the issues in comments to a blog. But the US government's actions and implementation, led by The Rs, of both the war in Afghanistan and the war in Iraq only reinforce these perceptions and make al Qaeda’s work easier. If you look at what al Qauda’s leaders have said, they the love the Rs plans. It reinforces what they have been saying, that Muslims are under attack from the US.
Perhaps Rs do have a plan, however it is quite obvious to any one that has taken the time to try and understand the enemy that the Rs will never except reality. The Rs and their supporters prefer belief over logic. Ds aren’t much better on this issue, but the chance of me convincing you of these truths is about the same as the chances of convincing the Rs to attempt to understand the enemy. To Rs understanding the enemy is somehow giving in to them. The Ds are our only, albeit slim, hope. Sigh! Unfortunately I think we are destined for another larger scale terrorist attack on American soil, and I fear that the next one could result in the crumbling of the world as we know it today.
<h2>Perhaps you missed the county-by-county breakdown of voters from the last election. Dems win the city, Rs win the country. If by city you mean suburbs, then maybe you have a case, but all the cities I have ever visted are strongly liberal places, particularly when compared to the surromding areas.</h2>