Yes, Oregon, we're on track for a sixth congressional seat

Kari Chisholm

Once again, here in late December, the Census Bureau is out with the latest population estimates for each of the 50 states -- and my inner population data nerd comes out to play. For over a decade, I've been tracking Oregon's progress toward a sixth congressional seat.

And you know what? Prospects for a sixth seat are stronger than they have ever been.

Last year was the first time we projected a sixth seat -- and it's become ever more locked in than before. Last year, our sixth seat ranked #433 (the last seat is #435, of course.) This year? If reapportionment happened now, our sixth seat would rank #429.

Of course, reapportionment will be based on 2020 numbers, not 2017. And exactly a decade ago, in 2007, we were on track for that sixth seat -- but the Great Recession pulled the rug out from under Oregon (and we landed at #442.)

But here's why I'm confident. In every trend curve scenario -- a 17-year trend, a 7-year trend, a 2-year trend, and a 1-year trend -- we get that sixth seat.

Of course, if Donald Trump throws us into a trade-war recession, it'll hurt Oregon hard and fast. We're always first in, last out on recessions; and we're a trade-dependent state.

Previously:

• Boom! Oregon is almost certain to get a SIXTH congressional seat - Dec 2016
• As people flock to Oregon, prospects for a sixth congressional seat perk up - Dec 2015
• Will 2020 be the year that Oregon gets a sixth congressional seat? - Jan 2014
• Reapportionment Day! - Dec. 2010
• Waiting on reapportionment. Will Oregon get a sixth? - Dec. 2010
• Coal in our stocking: prospects dim for a sixth congressional district - Dec 2009
• Why the DC Voting Rights bill may turn out to be HUGE for Oregon - Feb. 2009
• A sixth congressional seat? Prospects improve... - Dec. 2008
• Will Oregon pick up a sixth congressional seat? Don't be so sure. - Nov. 2008
• New US House Seat Predicted for Oregon - Nov. 2007

By Kari Chisholm Dec. 21, 2017