Better know a district: The Fightin' Fifth
Kari Chisholm
There have been lots of questions about where the boundary lines of the Fifth District lie - so I thought I'd pull these excellent maps from GovTrack.us. (Over there, you can zoom in and out like magic, so head over there for a little fun with maps.)
Here's the full map of the 5th District, and below, the details for the north end in Portland and the south end in Corvallis.
Enjoy!
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Feb 8, '08
Thank you, Kari. My candidate in the original 5th District primary printed a copy of that 5th District map (which, as I recall, included parts of 5 counties and reached up to Detroit--but not Idahna), and we thought that was one of his great strengths--knew the geography of the district so well, not to mention having grown up in rural Clackamas County.
Those who are proposing candidates for this district should keep in mind that it is a diverse district including Lake Oswego, Dallas, Molalla, parts of the Albany/Corvallis area, almost up to Cannon Beach, and down to Yahats. Hard to imagine anyone from Portland doing town hall meetings in some of those areas, although it might be a real education to them to find out how other Oregonians live and what they care about.
11:19 a.m.
Feb 8, '08
Note that parts of Portland are in the 5th District. Johns Landing, etc. Small area, but significant numbers of voters.
Feb 8, '08
[Off-topic comment removed. -editor.]
Feb 8, '08
...and censorship rears its ugly head on BO
Feb 8, '08
What the hell is wrong with District 4 and 5? Was there serious gerrymandering involved? Apparently I lived in district 5 then moved about 5 blocks down the road and now live in district 4.
They should cover at least a whole city and not carve out the stupid university and the blue bloods that live around it.
Absolutely stupid. Really. Stupid. Sometimes it makes it hard to be proud to be an oregonian (doesn't deserve a capitalization).
12:51 p.m.
Feb 8, '08
BCM: The comment was utterly unrelated, about the presidential race. It was a sentence fragment, contributing absolutely nothing to any debate. Whatever editor removed it did a service to the community, and summarized it well by describing the comment as "off-topic."
Furthermore, censorship is a good word to apply to government, or to dominant mass-media -- not a blog. A blog is not capable of preventing information from reaching the public. That kind of hyperbole doesn't help anything.
Feb 8, '08
Note that parts of Portland are in the 5th District. Johns Landing, etc. Small area, but significant numbers of voters.
Yeah, that little spear shooting into PDX had to be the result of some past Democratic gerrymandering designed to increase the Dem numbers in CD5. Because we all know that John's Landing and Waldport voters have so much in common.
Feb 8, '08
Show me a legislative district that is not Gerrymandered, and you will be showing me a government that does not use single member, winner take all elections.
Feb 8, '08
Gerrymandering is usually done to assure political victory for one candidate or party. It may seem proper to draw district lines around cities or population clusters, but that strategy can lead to homogeneous districts with little electoral competition - not a good thing for democracy. It is impossible for anyone to seriously challenge Earl in the 3rd district, as things are. It would promote competitive elections if more of Portland were removed from the 3rd and replaced with more of Clackamas or Hood Counties. that would put more of Portland into the 1st and 5th districts.
Feb 8, '08
Thanks, Miles.
"Note that parts of Portland are in the 5th District. Johns Landing, etc. Small area, but significant numbers of voters." gives new meaning to the word significant.
Just as always, the bulk of the voters are Marion, Polk, and Clackamas.
About gerrymandering.........
If you can find a map of the original 5th District, a little piece of it hangs down -- a legislator wanted his home included in case he decided to run (which he never did).
The people who were the organizational strength of the Democratic Congressional District Central Committees in the 1980s were not available for the same jobs after the 1990 census and 1991 redistricting. By a few blocks or by miles, some of those strong people were drawn into new Congressional districts. But was it really gerrymandering, or was it population shift? For that matter, to look at the top map, could the argument be made that McMinnville has a community of interest with Dallas, Monmouth and Molalla? Or did that line get drawn in the right place?
Some redistricting decisions are gerrymandering, but not all are.
Feb 8, '08
I'm confused - does this mean that the South Waterfront development is in the 5th CD? It's south of the base of the tram. Does anybody know?
1:32 p.m.
Feb 8, '08
At the risk of being off-topic and removed, the title of the post reminded me of Hooley's wonderful Colbert Report appearance. We'll miss you, Darlene.
1:45 p.m.
Feb 8, '08
What the hell is wrong with District 4 and 5? Was there serious gerrymandering involved? Apparently I lived in district 5 then moved about 5 blocks down the road and now live in district 4.
They should cover at least a whole city and not carve out the stupid university and the blue bloods that live around it.
Even without any kind of gerrymandering you could move a few blocks and be in a different district. Lines are drawn to try to equalize the population within a district. But they also need to stay along precinct lines. As all voters in a precinct have to have the exact same representation from water district to Congress, you sometimes get some odd areas because of that.
CD 3 moved east some in the last redistricting, encompassing a part of eastern Clackamas County. To be honest, much of that area is much more like the Gresham area than it is western Clackamas County. So it's no surprise that it was added in CD 3 and portions of western Portland are now grouped into CDs with parts of Clackamas County and Washington County that are similar.
Because we all know that John's Landing and Waldport voters have so much in common.
There's more to CD 5 than Waldport. The portion of Portland that is in CD 5 does have a lot in common with Lake Oswego and that area - which is also in CD 5.
Not every area in a CD is going to be like every other area in the CD. But you'll often find that it is similar to the cities near it. The larger the CD is in miles, the greater the differences you'll find between cities that are further apart.
Feb 8, '08
Pete Forsyth: A blog is not capable of preventing information from reaching the public.
[comment removed. -editor.]
2:19 p.m.
Feb 8, '08
But let's be clear about this: Both the 1st and 5th Congressional Districts were shamelessly gerrymandered to give the Democrats the maximum opportunity to hold onto those seats.
That's why, when the legislature couldn't pass a redistricting plan, the Democrats took their plan to the state court to approve it rather than to the federal court as it had always been previously the practice.
2:27 p.m.
Feb 8, '08
...and censorship rears its ugly head on BO
Nope. Just a comment about the presidential race that doesn't belong here.
Feb 8, '08
Kari Chisholm: ...and censorship rears its ugly head on BO
Nope. Just a comment about the presidential race that doesn't belong here.
So what you're saying is that we only have free speech in certain quarters here on Blue Oregon.
Feb 8, '08
OK, Jack, how would you have done it? Would you have put Molalla and McMinnville in the same district? Do communities of interest count? Wasn't Oregon House District 25 supposed to be the Hispanic District? In what way are either Backlund or Thatcher Hispanic?
For all the yelling, the 2001 House Majority did not want to openly discuss communities of interest being kept in the same districts, or even make their maps public---that open discussion went on in the 1991 session.
I live in a district where the core has always been Marion, Polk and Clackamas. If some partisan said our district couldn't be that way anymore because they said so, I'd be angry. Maybe the next redistricting should be taken out of the hands of the legislature--didn't PCOL have a discussion about that? But there should be a public discussion about the numbers and making sure there are communities of interest kept together and maybe relatively the same number of voters who don't choose a major party.
For all the screaming of the GOP about that evil redistricting plan, why did the court approve it? Could it possibly have had the same number of voters + or - a certain percent and that was the standard?
And more importantly, why did it take House Democrats so long to win a majority if districts were drawn in their favor? Could it be that if there is no more than a 35 majority but at with least 7 districts decided by less than 1000 votes, maybe redistricting and the infamous "R to D ratio" aren't really what determines who wins?
2:39 p.m.
Feb 8, '08
But they also need to stay along precinct lines. As all voters in a precinct have to have the exact same representation from water district to Congress, you sometimes get some odd areas because of that.
Actually, they don't. Precinct lines are quite temporary and ephemeral. They draw the district lines - congressional, legislative, and others - and then the precinct lines are drawn.
I was the co-chair of the citizens committee on redistricting Metro back in 2001. We talked a lot about natural boundaries - like city boundaries, rivers, freeways, major roads, etc. We also recognized that sometimes a "community" or the generally accepted sense of a neighborhood doesn't all along those lines.
For example, the folks in the "Gateway area" are bisected by two freeways. Should the freeways serve as boundaries? Or does the presence of those freeways serve as a unifying characteristic of the area?
Feb 8, '08
Thanks, Kari. Maybe now Jack will understand the concept of "communities of interest".
I went to a legislative hearing in a previous redistricting process (1991) and the plea from one local group was to keep their school attendance area in one legislative district. The school was near the boundary, and part of the attendance area had been in one Oregon House district while a part had been in another.
And from what I hear, the folks on the coast were very vocal to the 2001 redistricting comm. that the coast and Yamhill County should not be in one St. Senate district, just like the 1981 legislature heard pleas that a line be drawn down the middle of the Cascades and no member be force to represent both sides of the mountains.
Feb 8, '08
That's why, when the legislature couldn't pass a redistricting plan, the Democrats took their plan to the state court to approve it rather than to the federal court as it had always been previously the practice.
Well, at least they didn't use the FBI, federal funds and criminal behavior to get their way ala TX.
Feb 8, '08
Redistricting is always shameless. Democrats gerrymander and Republicans gerrymander. Greens and libertarians would, too, if they had power. So long as redistricting is done by politicians, it will be done to maximize the power of the party in office.
It makes me wonder if it's a job that should be taken out of the political process. That's probably idealistic (and unrealistic), but I'd feel more comfortable if the decision was being made by a neutral party following some established criteria.
Feb 8, '08
There are people down in my old town who have literally never been to Portland or California. Forget about this out of district idea. It is very insulting. "Yep, those poor turnip truck slobs down there in redville can't put up any candidates, Portland had better come to the rescue."
Geez. fagetaboutit
3:30 p.m.
Feb 8, '08
BCM, don't be obtuse. It's not like we haven't had plenty of threads about the presidential race around here.
Feb 8, '08
I suppose I have a pretty liberal interpretation of free speech. Like being able to say Obama for President in a discussion on the 5th District and not have it [Off-topic comment removed. -editor.]
Like I said, it appears Blue Oregon restricts free speech in certain quarters.
4:57 p.m.
Feb 8, '08
"Restricting free speech" is not the same as "censorship." Glad to see you're backing off that one.
Yes, Blue Oregon restricts free speech. Beyond the present comment, you also probably won't be able to get away with racist diatribes, or spamming comment threads with links to pharmaceutical companies. (Oh, wait...they don't seem to mind those ones so much. But if I could delete 'em, I would.)
Anyway...make a phone call, or fire off a press release. Preferably to someone who cares.
Feb 8, '08
I assume the mission of this blog is whatever the owners want it to be -- usually in privately owned media, at least one point is to sell advertising. Since I assume BO sells at least some of their ad-space, this is a business, not a public service or non-profit organization serving the public good.
From a business perspective, it makes perfect sense for the owners of a private blog to set and enforce any policies they want. The whole point of editors is to keep the media interesting so we readers stick around (and thus making advertising more valuable).
In the case of pointless off topic remarks, I appreciate the editing! Yawn! I wish BO would delete MORE of the inappropriate, mean spirited, or private battles that interrupt my enjoyment of this site (and from an advertising point of view make me "turn off" the site before getting to read the advertisers' messages.)
Since the FCC hasn't done anything to give privately owned blogs an unfair advantage on the public "airwaves" I really can't see any injustice happening.
So, Kari, Jeff, and the rest of yous -- count one vote for editing -- from what I've seen you're hardly excluding even borderline comments, so I think you're doing fine here.
And for those who insist on punishing others with repeating the same tired old comments to a captive audience, I believe most forms of government have public comment periods when one can express one's right to free speech. Not to mention just standing on a soapbox or street corner if you prefer.
Feb 8, '08
Lesson for the day as summed up by Pete:
Yes, Blue Oregon restricts free speech.
That's all I needed to hear.
Feb 8, '08
When editors of any stripe remove something so that others may not see it and form their own judgments about it, those editors are censoring that material. (The thinnest of dictionaries will back this up).
Although censorship carries with it a bad connotation, it's not always a bad thing. Censors may have reasonable justifications for removing the material. As Peter Forsyth suggests, it could be wildly off topic, racist, an over-board personal attack or spam, etc.
Forgetting for a second the debate about whether anon's original comment deserved to go, and consider the actual definition of censorship. It is wildly twisted to argue that removing material so that others may not view it is not censorship.
Feb 8, '08
What a bizzare shape for a congressional district. It looks like a Moai (or "Tiki") chasing a sheep.
Were they trying to create a "safe" Republican seat?
Feb 8, '08
That's why, when the legislature couldn't pass a redistricting plan, the Democrats took their plan to the state court to approve it rather than to the federal court as it had always been previously the practice.
Jack: In Growe v. Emison, 507 U.S. 25 (1993), the United States Supreme Court unanimously held in a decision written by Justice Scalia that redistricting litigation, including congressional redistricting litigation, belonged in state court in the first instance, not in federal court.
6:32 p.m.
Feb 8, '08
Kari: True, the districts come first. But you have to take into consideration things like what other districts cover the area when doing the redistricting. I sat in a lot of discussions in 2000 where they discussed what the redistricting process was going to look like, what they take into consideration, etc. (it was a topic I covered for the paper), and they talked about how they had to take into consideration how the precincts would fall. With people falling under city/unincorporated, different house districts, etc., they had to make sure not to leave a tiny island of an area that would end up as a precinct of a few people in an area where it was unnecessary.
Like it would be stupid to put a street inside a CD where one side of the street was in PPS and the other in David Douglas. You'd end up with two precincts that are just part of a street. So you've got to take things like that into consideration since the precincts have to keep everyone in one precinct in all the same districts.
Because of the different districts/entities that can cover an area, especially in Portland where there are different house districts, school districts, etc., you can end up with some pretty funky looking districts and precincts.
6:57 p.m.
Feb 8, '08
Seems to me that you are perfectly free to start your own blog and set whatever rules you like for it. So what's stopping you?
7:21 p.m.
Feb 8, '08
If you actually believe that districts should represent "communities of interest," I believe a better way would have been for the 3rd CD to be basically just Multnomah County, the 5th would have all of Clackamas County and the 1st district wouuld get back Tillamook and Lincoln (which they had before the 1991 redistricting).
There may need to be a little fiddling around the edges, but I believe this would produce roughly the same population in each district you have now. The result, however, is that the 5th and 1st CD's would be more Republican and the 3rd would be more Democratic (as if they needed to up their already astronomical percentage). That's what I believe the gerrymandering was designed to prevent.
LT, I think it is real hard to argue that the current allignment better represents "communities of interest" than the one I described above, but I would welcome your explanation of why you think otherwise.
7:50 p.m.
Feb 8, '08
As for Michael Simon's point that Growe v. Emison holds that state courts, not federal courts, should have first crack at congressional redistricting, I don't think that is quite what that case says.
The Supreme Court held there that while both state and federal courts have jurisdiction over redistricting, if the state court is acting on redistricting, the federal recourt should defer to the state court to reach its decision first, subject to review by the federal court as to federal issues (Voting Rights Act, 14th amendment equal protection, etc.)
It is my understanding that, prior to 2001, in had been customary in Oregon to turn to the federal courts to determine the proper districts if the legislature and governor can't agree (while Oregon law gives the Secretary of State the next chance in the case of legislative redistricting). I do agree, however, that the state courts had the legal right to decide the redistricting and that's where the Democrats took their plan.
My speculation as to their motives, of course, is purely that . . . speculation.
8:04 p.m.
Feb 8, '08
Personally, I think the Sandy area combined into CD3 with Gresham, part of SW Portland combined into CD5 with Lake Oswego, and downtown/NW Portland being combined into CD3 with Beaverton makes a lot of sense. Those areas of Portland have more in common with those areas of Clackamas and Washington Counties than they do east Portland, Gresham, etc. Gresham also shares the house district that is in that portion of Clackamas County (HD 52). The same is true for west Gresham - those areas share a house district with Washington and Clackamas Counties.
If CD3 was only Multnomah County, it would have almost 10,000 less voters than it does now.
Adding that portion of Multnomah County on CD 5 meant there were only 6,583 less Dems than Republicans as opposed to 11,009 without Multnomah County. That's a difference of 4,426 votes. Darlene Hooley won by 30,000 votes.
Adding west Portland onto CD 1 added 25,194 Dems to the district and 9,210 Republicans. That's a difference of 15,984. David Wu won by about 70,000 votes.
It'd be one thing if these two districts were being won by small margins - but they're being won by considerable margins.
So maybe the reason those parts of west Portland were added to the other Congressional districts is that they're more similar to the nearby portions of Clackamas/Washington County than they do east of the river.
Ask people in Sandy, Boring, etc. which city they feel more similar to and more close to - Gresham or Oregon City. Gresham or Lake Oswego. They're more often than not going to say Gresham, which is why the reason of the eastern two portions of the counties seceding and then joining afterwards into one county gets floated so often.
Feb 8, '08
Posted by: Kevin | Feb 8, 2008 6:57:34 PM
Seems to me that you are perfectly free to start your own blog and set whatever rules you like for it. So what's stopping you?
I already have one Kevin, but thanks.
What you seem to be directing me away from is the point that Blue Oregon actively censors. That's the topic of discussion, and as we all learned earlier today, if you don't stick to it you'll get [Off-topic comment removed. -editor.]
8:06 p.m.
Feb 8, '08
Oops, that should have said:
...downtown/NW Portland being combined into CD1 with Beaverton...
8:46 p.m.
Feb 8, '08
Jack, I agree with you that gerrymandering is a terrible thing in our system of government, and far too rampant. From my understanding – which, I'll grant, is not as thorough as yours – I don't think it's a problem in Oregon. As you concede in your last comment, adding the rest of Multnomah County to CD3 would make it even more politically polarized. Apart from the effect that would have in Oregon's delegation (which, admittedly, would probably make it more Republican), I think that would be a bad thing. I think that general elections that are not really elections (like we have year after year for Earl's seat) are an awful thing for democracy. It's why I support (and yes, do some paid consulting work for) the Open Primary.
The fundamental problem is that any drawing of lines involves human judgment, and the lines between "what's best for my party" and "what's fairest/best for my country" are never clear. Those who lacked influence in the drawing (e.g. a Republican like you) will always be able to make a case that the lines were gerrymandered, no matter how diligent and sincere those who drew them were.
What we really need to get rid of – or at least minimize – is this ridiculously antiquated notion of representative legislators. It was a necessary evil when it took several days to get news out to remote areas; but it has no place in the modern world, beyond perpetuating unfair access to those entities that have adapted to take advantage of it.
It would solve a lot of problems beyond gerrymandering. I've laid out a pretty practical starting point here: Open Lobby
Pat M, I suppose this is starting to get a little uh…off topic, but my dictionary must be thinner than yours:
censor: examine (a book, movie, etc.) officially and suppress unacceptable parts of it. (emphasis mine.)
Anyway, I think you and I are making the same point, and just using the word "censor" a little differently.
Feb 8, '08
"There may need to be a little fiddling around the edges, but I believe this would produce roughly the same population in each district you have now. The result, however, is that the 5th and 1st CD's would be more Republican and the 3rd would be more Democratic (as if they needed to up their already astronomical percentage). That's what I believe the gerrymandering was designed to prevent."
Jack, I would have to have the population numbers at my fingertips, and I don't. I do know that for someone in 2001 who tried to look at the proposed boundaries as a concerned citizen while the process was controlled by the legislature, I had to ask about 6 people before being shown a Congressional district map on a wall in an obscure office for people to look at but no ordinary citizen was supposed to ask questions---on that or anything else the House leadership didn't want citizens asking questions about.
Jack, from what I recall of that map, Yamhill County was in the 5th District. If you can complete the sentence "From the beginning after the 1980 census, the core of the 5th Cong. District was Polk, Marion and Clackamas, but Yamhill should be added now because...", I'll be glad to discuss this with you.
I don't surmise when I don't have data in front of me. I do know that in my part of Marion County the spirit of the old legislative districts was maintained when the numbering system was changed. What was the old rural district 30 and the partly urban S. Salem and surrounding area district 31 were and still are part of a state senate seat which is now Sen. 10. Because of population changes the boundaries of those districts change every 10 years. 31/20 has been a very interesting district since first created when Norma Paulus was elected to it. A variety of interesting members of both parties has been elected to that district, and the current incumbent's victory 2006 margin is something like half the number of those who don't register in a major party.
Pete has some good ideas.
And I wonder if there were some kind of nonpartisan software made by a group like the Assoc. of Geographers (some technical group, not political) which drew lines with no regard to anything except having each district be exactly the same amount of voters + or - 1% if it would a) make people like Jack happy b) do some really odd things like splitting Waldport, drawing a line down the middle of the state capitol grounds, splitting a college campus, having some legislators represent both sides of the Cascades, put Lincoln and Yamhill (or equally different counties) in the same legislative district.
Feb 8, '08
"Anyway, I think you and I are making the same point, and just using the word "censor" a little differently."
Peter,
You seem to be implying only the government can censor things.
I don't believe that's true.
Again, without judging the right or wrong of the original action, what happened is the "official" editors here at BlueOregon "officially" removed that comment because they had the power to do so.
Government is not the exclusive source of power.
Feb 8, '08
Pete:
Clearly, what's "best for my party" is always going to win out over what's "best for my country". That's why it is called "gary"-mandering (not "jerry"-mandering).
From Wikipedia.org
Gerrymandering is a form of redistricting in which electoral district or constituency boundaries are manipulated for an electoral advantage. The word "gerrymander" is named for the Governor of Massachusetts Elbridge Gerry (July 17, 1744 – November 23, 1814), and is a portmanteau of his name with the word "salamander," which was used to describe the appearance of a tortuous electoral district pressed through the Massachusetts legislature in 1812—and reluctantly signed into law by Gerry—by Jeffersonian democrats, in order to disadvantage their electoral opponents in the upcoming senatorial election. "Gerrymander" is used both as a verb meaning "to divide into political units to give special advantages to one group" as well as a noun describing the resulting electoral geography. Elbridge Gerry's actual name is pronounced with an initial /g/ (a hard G), but the "jerry" pronunciation is now the normal pronunciation.
The original salamander district even resembles the 5th district of Oregon. The more things change.
Feb 8, '08
Well, at least with its redistricting, the State of Oregon didn't pull a Tom DeLay. The State of Oregon didn't get the FBI to hunt down Democratic legislators who were hiding in motels out of state. (God bless you Willie Nelson for giving them food and drink).
11:51 p.m.
Feb 8, '08
Again, without judging the right or wrong of the original action, what happened is the "official" editors here at BlueOregon "officially" removed that comment because they had the power to do so.
Yes, and we've done that since the beginning. Actually, more then than now. (People are actually more on topic these days.)
We make no excuses for keeping people on topic. See Rose Wilde's comment above.
As always, if people don't like it here, they can go away. There are some 12 million other blogs in the world. Our traffic keeps moving up, so we're doing something right.
Feb 9, '08
Dumb guy questions: How were the congressional districts established. How are the boundaries altered when needed? I gathered from comments above that it requires some legislative action. Maybe somebody can elaborate or provide a helpful link.
Feb 9, '08
The first three pages of This Document provides an overview of how redistricting has evolved. The Rose Institute is the best source California political history, which (together with New York and Texas) have been trend setters on redistricting politics, gerrymandering, and related case law for the past 40 years.
Here's an interesting bio on Gov. Gerry which underscores the depravity of holding your nose to enact legislation that benefits a partisan cause over the national interest. Gov. Gerry was a signer of the Declaration of Independence and would later serve as Envoy to France and U.S. Vice President (under President Madison). So his democratic credentials were almost above reproach.
It is useful to understand that sacrificing democratic ideals in pursuit of Democratic Hegemony is a 295 year old phenomenon, ya' bunch of pikers...(//Gov. Gerry tips his hat to SoS Bradbury, who smiles, and then looks the other way).
Feb 9, '08
This seat will be very difficult to retain.
12:28 p.m.
Feb 9, '08
This seat will be very difficult to retain.
Say--you weren't one of the people arguing way back when that Darlene's candidacy was a huge mistake for the Democrats because the 5th district wasn't going to elect a woman, were you? That was quite a hot topic in the party before she first won and went off to Washington.
Whether or not the Dems retain this seat will depend entirely on who runs as a Democrat and whether they understand the district well enough to run a campaign that fits the 5th.
Steve Novick, for example, would be a bad choice. It wouldn't be impossible for him to win but he'd have to do it mostly on the strength of his personal story of scrappiness in overcoming adversity and that would be a decidedly uphill battle. Paul Evans could be an interesting choice given his military background, which will play well in the 5th.
The 5th will elect a Democrat but only when the Democrat persuades them he or she won't let ideology overcome practicality. Anyone who goes in sounding like the darling of BlueOregon progressives is gonna be toast. (See Catherine Webber, the woman whose loss to Jim Bunn convinced all those Dem insiders that a woman couldn't win in the 5th. I only had to hear Catherine talk once to know that even had she been male she would not have had a snowball's chance of getting elected in the 5th--at least short of having her opponent drive off a cliff the day before the election.)
A history of practical accomplishment, a "regular person" personality, and a reputation for being willing to make independent judgments can win the 5th for a Democrat.
Feb 9, '08
Doretta, thanks for the interesting comment. Which leads me to repeat the moment I was pretty sure Darlene would win in 1996. There was a debate in the Salem Public Library auditorium (great venue for political debates, often used). Catherine and Jim B. had debated there in 1994 and it was obvious the crowd was on his side--after the debate, as he came off the stage, a bunch of people who were obviously his supporters gathered around him and were very friendly towards him.
Flash forward 2 years and after the debate was over (a debate where Darlene did extremely well and Bunn had a hard time defending his record in front of the local crowd), the group gathered around Bunn as he came down from the stage were all wearing red Hooley shirts and asking him hostile questions. And outdoors, as they talked before leaving, people were saying things like, "Darlene is going to win because the woman on that stage is the Darlene we have known all these years, and Catherine made the mistake of letting consultants tell her what kind of candidate she should be. "
(Being the genuine article matters. One of the reasons Wyden's 100% positive campaign was such a wise decision was the people saying "i'll gladly vote for the Ron I've known for years, but a candidate running nasty ads is not the Ron I know".)
In all fairness, in the 1994 GOP tidal wave, we didn't know for sure Catherine lost until days later--that was back when absentee ballots couldn't be counted until after the polling place votes had been counted and those poll books closed to make sure no one voted twice.
But Catherine was by no means the first woman candidate to run in the district. Ruth McFarland ran twice, and in her own way was as outspoken, colorful, with a fascinating life story as anything Steve Novick can say. Barbara Ross in 1986 ran a very disorganized campaign. Then Mike Kopetski lost the recount in 1988 and won convincingly in 1990. Those of us who recall any of those campaigns are going to view proposed candidates through that experience, not who sounds better to bloggers.
Imagine for a moment that Brian Boquist is the nominee--he ran before, has grown since those days into a somewhat more reasonable politician, gave that speech on the Iraq Resolution in the 2007 session which had things in it that people here might agree with, and is an Iraq vet. If you have a choice for a 5th District candidate, try imagining that person debating St. Rep. Boquist in the Salem Public Library auditorium, or in his home town of Dallas, or over on the coast somewhere.
It comes down to how the candidate can appeal to such audiences in the 5th District, how well they can discuss federal issues, how well organized their campaign is, how they do attracting volunteers, rather than just money or if they impress bloggers.
For those of us who have experienced contested 5th District elections, this is serious business. Not just a dream about who might be a good member of Congress, but who can actually win the votes of those in the 5th District.
2:47 p.m.
Feb 9, '08
Well said, LT. I recall ALL of those campaigns--although I experienced Ruth's from long distance I have good friends who were some of her most dedicated supporters.
It's true that Catherine didn't lose by much but it's also true, in my opinion, that Jim Bunn was comparatively weak opposition.
6:09 p.m.
Feb 9, '08
Jennifer, you won't get any quarrel from me. I think it's pretty much a given that, under a system where districts are redrawn every 10 years to adjust for evolving population, that partisan influences will always be a factor. (I do believe there are more and less responsible ways to approach that -- matters of degree. What happened in Texas this last time around representing about the worst I've heard of. But I don't think there's a "good" way to handle it under our current system.)
That's why I think efforts to engage the citizenry more directly in crafting policy are the best approach at this time, reducing the influence of the legislature overall; make them respond to US, rather than trying to influence them merely by dollars and votes.
WS: the simple answer to your question is that districts are redrawn every 10 years, following the results of the census. Texas did some monkey business trying to do it off that schedule, and I think got slapped down to some degree by the Supreme Court after a lot of battle. But, it's how popular Democrat Nick Lampson lost his seat, his district was redrawn in such a way that his residence was within a heavily R district.
I believe that in most (all?) states, the redrawing is up to the Legislature, but that if the Leg. can't agree (which happens frequently), it falls to the Sec. of State, and then is frequently litigated in court.
Pat: are we going to argue about the meaning of the word? Really? I accept that your interpretation of the definition is a sensible one. I interpret it slightly differently. Does anything of any importance hang on this, or can we just let it go? Please?
Feb 9, '08
Jennifer, Pete, thanks for helping to shed some light on how congressional districts have been adjusted.
1:21 a.m.
Feb 10, '08
Poor Peter Bray... The guy who was convinced that Kulongoski would lose, and then later, that Measure 49 would go down in flames.
He's a pretty good blogger over there at LandUseWatch.com, but he's the eternal pessimist.
Peter, maybe you need a vacation? Or a little sunshine?
2:15 p.m.
Feb 10, '08
Peter, maybe you need a vacation? Or a little sunshine?
That 5th CD has some beautiful beaches that would make spots to enjoy a respite and reinject some Democratic optimism!
And what's the latest? Anyone jumping in yet? Hmm? (cough) Kurt Schrader (cough).
Feb 10, '08
I'm really hoping Paul Evans does throw his hat in on this one. I canvassed for him in 2006, and his record of service (both civil and military) resonated well, even in the West Salem neighborhoods where I was knocking on doors.
That being said, I do think that the overall shape of the 5th CD is kind of ridiculous. Putting Waldport, Lake Oswego, and Salem into the same district really just makes it look like whatever was left after the other districts had been defined.
I do miss spending time on the central coast, though. Here's to an active election season canvassing all those coastal towns...
Feb 11, '08
Someone over on Redstate seems to believe that Mannix will be jumping into the CD5 race.
There's literally nothing more to that story than this "3.. Mannix looks set to make run in the opean [sic] Seat in Oregon"
but here's the link anyway:
http://redstate.com/blogs/dld1717/2008/feb/10/recent_congressional_seat_updates
I have to believe this is a good thing. Mannix can't self-fund like Erickson can, although he'd probably beat him in the primary, and then he'd need lots of Republican money for the rest of the race, draining scarce NRCC resources.
<h2>Yes, I'd hate to have Mannix be a Congressman from OR, moreso than Erickson who I see as bland and likely a puppet from the Right but not outright the maniac that Mannix is, but I'm not sure Mannix will wear all that well in that district, he'll probably scare many Democrats and NAVs into action to defeat him.</h2>